August 27, 2021 • 43 mins
Subscribe to Fox Sports Radio's Officials Fantasy Football Podcast! Mike Harmon and Dan Beyer rank the top tiered Running Backs before your Draft. Who in the Top 10 is posing? Which RB2's will make and break your roster? Sleepers that can win your league. Mike and Dan have all that and more including how Travis Etienne’s injury and Sony Michel's trade shake up the rankings.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This Valentine's Day. You know just what to get that
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(00:20):
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experience during your football season, well buckle up, sweet cheeks.
We've got all the experience in the world. This is
(00:42):
I Want Your Flex with Dan Buyer and Mike Harman.
Mike and Dan breakdown everything you need to set your
line up from position rankings, two starts and sits. The
guys help you make those hard decisions and now let's
get your flex on. Here's Dan and Mike Harman another
(01:04):
episode If I Want Your Flex Episode three of our
second season, and Mike, I actually think this is our
biggest episode that we do Position wise because I have
always been and always will be a running back guy
when it comes to fantasy football. We talk running backs
(01:25):
today and I want your flex well, such a huge position,
because you know, we get into this and and obviously
doing local hits and different things, you always have the
questions that that flow and and a lot of it
gets into you know, how early you drafted a quarterback
whatever else? And I begin with the primer on running
backs and how much you know you're looking at your
(01:45):
settings and in general there's at least twenty four that
are active every week, right, plus flex positions, et cetera,
Which means we've got to look at drop offs, we've
got to look at committees, we've got to look at
that third back that's coming in to screw things up.
Oh and the quarterbacks that run a lot themselves. So
it messes things to a point where we look at
(02:07):
even going just back to last year, Dan, the difference
between RB one in a standard league and RB twelve
was nearly half the number of points scored by r
r B twelve. Right, So three or four team down
to one, sixty seven go to one, go to running
(02:30):
back twenty four. The dips only another thirty seven so
on on average, you know, divide that by sixteen or
seventeen as it were. You know, if we're gonna use
the all all the data points possible, Man, you're looking
at two a week going from the back end of
the first running back to the end of the r
B two's and then all the way down to running
(02:52):
back thirty six, where you know, it's another twenty point dip,
but again over seventeen weeks, not very much. But that
stark contrast between RB one and RB twelve is why
running backs come off the board fast and furiously PPR
or not, because the value is there. Get Mike on
Twitter at swollen Dome, find me on Twitter at Dan
(03:15):
Buyer on Fox. And I'm gonna admit it, I'm an
old school guy with this stuff. I really am. And
you you talked about the breakdowns of the difference between
the top running back and the twelve ranked running back
and the difference between there. I will look at numbers,
and I will look at what guys did in and
as you do these refreshers for for these fantasy podcasts,
(03:37):
or you're looking back on the season and you're prepping
for the first thing that stood out to me the
biggest number, and it's it doesn't tell the whole story
about running backs, but I was shocked Mike that the
difference in rushing yards between the number one running back
and the number three running back last year in the
regular season was eight hundred and fifty yards. You had
(03:58):
Derrick Henry break two thousand, then you had Dalvin Cook
at fifty seven, and third place was Jonathan Taylor with
eleven hundred and sixty nine yards. It's when the eight
hundred and fifty yards between Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor
and both of those guys are top three and again,
(04:19):
receiving yards, I know comes comes into all of this.
I'm not saying anything about the guys, but just that
stat alone blew my mind on what we have at
the running back position position and just simply running the football. Yeah,
you're thinking about the splits. You know, we do a
lot of analysis during the course of the year, Dan
on offensive line cohesion and how many shuffling jobs have
(04:43):
to be done because of injury and ineffectiveness over the
course of a year. I mean, you just look at
last year. You mentioned Henry, Cook and Taylor and the
drop off between the three. They're right, the fact that
we only have eight to ten thousand yard rushers each
year as we have those second backs, right, the guys
that are passed catching specialists, or you're just not subjecting
(05:06):
the back to heavy workloads. I mean when you add
in the receptions, just to combine those for a moment,
you had only three players get over three touches out
of the position last year, Henry Cook and Jacobs. I
mean that equates to just eighteen point eight over a
sixteen game season, right, So it's not even like it
(05:28):
used to be where you handed the ball to Barry
Sanders and pick your favorite bell cow of yesteryear, where
it was thirty carries a game, regardless of down distance score.
You know they they had just as good a chance
of of getting the offense going by tucking the ball
into his gut is trying to pass downfield. Nowadays we
(05:49):
know that that's just not the case. So you have
these dramatic drop offs. I mean, in terms of carries, right,
Henry with his three seventy eight, Cook was second at
three twelve. Jonathan Taylor had two, Hunter thirty two Dan.
I mean, it's a hundred and forties six carried difference
between first and third, and then and then you go
(06:11):
to Aaron Jones, it drops another thirty. Like we're talking,
you know, just that huge departure from what we grew
up with. Three yards in a cloud of dust. I'll
be honest, I miss it. And when a team can
establish it's why you know I'm a closet Cleveland Browns fan,
even though I'm a Bears guy, Chicago kid. But you
know what, if you're gonna put the ball into the
(06:34):
guts of of Chubb and Kareem Hunt, I'm all on board.
Let's go. I'll say this as well. Would you talk
about Derrick Henry and his usage and while as crazy
as that stat is, and actually I like that step
more that he was eight hundred and fifty yards more
than third place, wasn't rushing. My other favorite Derrick Henry
(06:56):
stat is Derrick Henry had nineteen catches Lie Nest year
for the for the Titans for about a buck fourteen.
I think the official number was one of those went
for fifty three yards, so that means the other eighteen
made up sixty one yards. So that's what you're gonna
get from Derrick Henry. Maybe you get the one that's
the fifty three yard or in that one game, but
(07:19):
all those other games you're just gonna have to rely
on what he did did running the ball, because that's
who Derrick Henry is. I just I love that stat
that nearly half of his receiving yards came on one
reception last year's brilliant man. That's the fun with numbers
inside the game. But I mean we go down the
list of running backs and and and as you look
(07:39):
at rushing yards from a year ago, I mean, look
at some of the guys that might not really have
much of a job as as we get here right
now among your leaderboard. I mean, Frank Gore's forty seven
years old, he was still getting it done. Melvin Gordon
in a workload battle, Kenyan Drake backup in in Nevada.
(07:59):
You know, Miles Sanders is the guy for the moment.
And you just keep going on down the list. You know,
James Conner and Ronald Jones, Kareem Hunt, we already talked
about him, like all of these guys are in splints.
We'll talk about them more in detail later on, but
just showing you the potential for just a twist in
(08:20):
a big way as to opportunity and results for your
fantasy squads. This year, you basically named, uh, half of
the crappy were actually more than half of the crappy
running backs, so that we're on my team. Last year,
James Conner, Kenyan, Drake Miles, Sanders, Ronald Jones all appearing
on my fantasy football team at least at one point.
(08:43):
All right, let's get into these Let's get into these
top guys. Because we are talking about Derrick Henry. I
want to get into your rankings. What do you have
And and by the way, I don't want to spend
tons of time on the top of the running back
position because I think the real meat is really in
that R B two RB three category. But still, if
(09:03):
you're holding a top pick, there are decisions that you're
gonna have to make. There are guys that you may
want to want to drop down to you. So let's
hear what Mike's got to say for his top running
backs in the class or in the draft. Of Yeah,
some of it gets chaotic because we're looking at injury
histories and wondering about durability and coaches. You know, my
mom always had a saying Dan, and I think I've
(09:25):
used this on the podcast before. I'm gonna save stuff
for good, right, so I bought, you know, we'd buy
a nice blouse, maybe maybe you know, some slacks, or
you know, a nice sweater, not necessarily you know, the
holiday sweater, but it's just a nice sweater. Like hey,
you know in Chicago, brisk and even in Tampa if
you're if you're out late, down by the water or whatever,
(09:46):
and uh, it would go to the back of a
closet and you'd be like, hey, how come you never
wear this? And I'd be like, well, I'm saving it
for good. It's like, well, goods today, we woke up today,
use it today, not for some special event that may
ever come come on. And then she'd change, you know,
what she wanted esthetically, and she'd start giving the stuff
away for donations, which is fine, all going to great
(10:09):
causes and hopefully used and loved in another home. But
it was always the I'm saving it for good. So
you're gonna have some of those situations with some of
these players right where based on where game positioning, they're
gonna drift a little bit. But all that filibustering aside,
you know, your top tier is three guys, and then
it's just a matter of do you trust Christian McCaffrey
(10:32):
coming back behind that old line in Carolina coming off
the injury. I do. He's my number one. I've got
Henry second. I'm not expecting the drop off just yet.
Dalvin Cook PPR League I I could be uh, you
could argue me into us switching those guys around too three,
but I think those are the class and I think
(10:52):
we can all agree to that. It starts getting a
little muddy thereafter. I've got Aaron Jones still forth. Many
still believe that a J. Dillon will start reaching in.
I say they paid Aaron Jones for a reason, and
he comes back for a reason. Nick Chubb was one
of those guys on an average game, uh, putting up
those kind of touches that would put him in the elite.
(11:12):
Unfortunately played twelve games, So we'll look for him at
number five. And then I'm a big Antonio Gibson guy.
I think there's a two way player here, and maybe
I want to believe that the neck Beard can get
through another season with the talent that's assembled there in Washington.
But I've got Gibson there. Uh then Taylor, assuming of
(11:34):
course that Quentin Nelson's footholds up. Alvin Kamara at eight
because of a little uncertainty as to what this offense
looks like this year, Ezekiel Elliott again questions going to
Dak Prescott as much as Zeke being in the quote
best shape of his life life at ten, Naji Harris
at eleven, Austin Ekeler and number twelve Joe Mixon. And
(11:58):
you've got three guys at the back end there that
are you know, questions. Harris fits checks all the boxes
as long as that offensive line is right, and Roethlisberger
is willing to wing it a little bit to spread
the offense. You got Ekeler with some injury concerns and
and other players on the roster that I think will
spell him a bit. Again. If you've got playoff aspirations,
you're only going as far as some of these weapons
(12:21):
UH can can take you. For Justin Herbert, and I
think Ekeler needs to be on the field, and then
Joe Mixon. Cincinnati such a wild card with Joe Burrow
coming back, plus an offensive line that I don't know
how much better it is than a year ago. And
Mixon's own injury history leaves you kind of wringing your
hands a little bit. Of your twelve, I had eleven
(12:44):
of those. The only one that I didn't write down
was mixing who, by the way, I had on the
list of my own list the name that it's not
that I don't think you left out. I think a
lot of people are afraid of say Kwon Barkley and
don't want to take that risk. Considering how the Giants
have been a bit evasive. There's been a little bit
(13:05):
more production of him doing some eleven on eleven stuff,
but I mean basically the entire Giants offense seems that
seems to be heard right now. I mean you, Kenny Golladay,
say Kwon Barkley is totally like the health of the
Giants is a thing. But with Barkley, I think that's
it's it's not only him playing this year, but it's
also sustaining another injury when he actually does play well.
(13:28):
And that's just it. Right. If we were to do
an offensive line ranking, uh, they're a team that's definitely
in your bottom ten on paper. H As you talked
about Daniel Jones, I don't know what he is Dolla
Day only played five games last year? Is he gonna
be healthy for a full run? If you look at
the skill position players, you're you're saying, okay, they've got
(13:48):
a decent arsenal for for Jones. But Barkley, you know,
as we we sit down to talk this out, you know,
very late on Thursday of the ex just to give
it a name date in time, the headline today was, yeah,
he got through a little bit of work. And it's like,
all right, what does that mean. It's like, it's the
twenty six of August. It's like, where's the ramp towards playing?
(14:12):
I don't see it? And so that leaves me nervous
when on the back end of that roster, not that
you're buying into the rest of the roster, but you're
looking at Davante Booker and and and a couple of
journeymen are your you know, Clement uh and others are
your backup tailbax. But for Barkley, is that the guy
from three years you know that burst down the scene
as a rookie and had some big games. And remember
(14:35):
he either needed a big gain or he was quiet, right,
that was the thing. He was one of those guys
not not quite to go down the full Barry Sanders
mode of one negative three, zero seventy six and a touchdown.
But certainly you know he he was dependent on busting
one of those twenty five thirty yard runs as a
saver to his day. Look, they all count just the same.
(14:58):
They're in the box, score, down distance and all of
that fun fun stuff. But I don't bank on huge runs.
I like consistency. Uh. And so Barkley for me is
sitting at fourteen. I got some groans at an event
in San Diego, but I'll stay with it. If he outperforms,
then good on him. Uh. Quadzilla had returned the question
(15:21):
that I have for you, and then we could kind
of put the rv ones in our rear view mirror, which,
by the way, you know, I I You're You're twelve
that you mentioned were in my top thirteen. You and
I had the same exact top eight, just different order
with a few guys. One of those guys was Alvin Kamara.
I do think and maybe I fall victim to it
(15:44):
as well. The Christmas Day the Christmas Day massacre if
you're a Vikings fan last year, where Camara had six
touchdowns in that game really boosted up his overall totals
for for what he had. However, to your point of
where the same paints are, we don't necessarily know where
they are, and Camara to take a hit. When Taysom
(16:04):
Hill ended up being the quarterback, we think it's gonna
be Jamis Winston. I guess the point that I'm I'm
not making as I'm more I'm asking PPR, can you
put Camara up? If Winston is the guy a little
bit higher than the others because of his past catching ability,
I would say that that would boost him potentially a
(16:24):
couple of slots. And now obviously we're assuming based on
everything we hear we're hearing, and certainly out of his
Week two performance that you know the locker room is
rallying around Winston at this point. But as we know,
that can also turn on a dime, right he gets
careless with the football and Sean Payton's gonna yank him. Yeah,
and I still think you're gonna see enough of Taysom
(16:46):
Hill to frustrate the hell out of you at that position,
but certainly for the offense overall. I mean, you look
at Camara at last year was an eighty three receptions
for him on the year, and with no discernible number
one in sight. Callowy has shown out pretty nicely in
the preseason, but everybody else is hurt or embattled, and
(17:07):
we use that term very loosely to try to figure
out what the hell is going on with Michael Thomas
and how you know, between the off the field stuff
punches last year, some grousing battles and not answering calls
and all of those things that we've talked about in
the previous two episodes that you know, we don't know
what when he's return date is, but what it means
(17:30):
is you don't have wide receivers other than Jamis is
going to try to pin it downfield, right case. Troutman's
banged up already, one of the sleepers at tight end.
So when we're starting to look at what the receiving
corps is, Yeah, even with Winston being able to wing it,
who's he winging a two? And so that doesn't that
mean four guys that are just standing there in a
box like you're playing box in one in defense and
(17:54):
uh basketball on Alvin Kamara just you know, quadruple team him. No,
not now that sounds like it's gonna cost you. I
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(18:15):
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When you need money, fast be the hero. Go to
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you need. Now, the exact timing is to when your
loan funds will be available will be determined by your
banking institution. Let's get to these r B two's for
the group that I think are are really a where
the decisions are going to be made. If you have
(18:37):
a first round pick, you're likely using it on one
of these, on one of the r V ones that
you mentioned. I think now we get into the r
B two group after that that twelve ranking. I I
had Nag Harris at number twelve on my rankings, like
he was right on the border Joe Mix and I
had next. And then there's this grouping and and and
(18:59):
you have Clyde Edwards Hilaire, you have J. K. Dobbins,
you have Miles Sanders, you have Chris Carson, you have
David Montgomery. Uh, you have James Robinson, f Darryl Henderson.
I know I'm missing a couple of names, but that's
the group and the and and there's gonna be a
guy that's gonna kill you, that is not going to produce,
(19:19):
and then there's gonna be a guy that's gonna make good.
And you're gonna have two really good running backs in
your league hopefully that's what that's what we want in
that RB two grouping and and and I didn't mention
Miles Gaskin's name, but I'm throwing him in there as well,
and Josh Jacobs and DeAndre Swift and whoever. But in
that RB two group, Mike, how does it break down
for you as we look what you've got going at
(19:41):
maybe thirteen through twenty or twenty three. Uh, Dobbins to Barkley,
to Edwards Hilaire, who again on a per game basis,
was performing. It was quiet, right, but the the aggregate
what was solid if and should have staying healthy, uh
(20:02):
and being able to pick up that touchcount just a bit.
And I think that and I think a couple of
things really with Clyde Edwards Hilaire. We talked a lot
about him last year because I was so high on
what I thought he could do with it. You got
a tattoo. He did not. But I but I should
have for a penalty for how much I supported Clyde
Edwards Hilaire. The problem last year were a bunch of
(20:25):
problems he didn't have. Uh, you had a Kansas City
Chief team that actually used him pretty well in the
first part. We know what happened when Levian Bell came in.
Then he started talking about some of their offensive line issues. Uh,
in Mitchell Schwartz wasn't playing. Then he ends up going
down with an injury. But when everything comes when when
he comes back, he ends up being their guy in
(20:48):
the super Bowl when they don't really have a running game.
Now you talk about all the Andy Reid's second year
running back stuff that we hear, we hear you know
how they addressed the line both in the draft and
in free agency in the office season, and honestly, Mike,
I know that they realized so much on Patrick Mahomes
and his shoulders and what's on his shoulders. But you
(21:09):
have to at least attempt to run the ball a
little bit more than they did. And I think that
they are going to try to at least remedy what
happened in Super Bowl when it was just Mahomes running
for his life yards laterally, Dan, Yes, we've we've talked
about this. It's I feel like I'm having deja vu
talking about it. But I just think that there is
(21:31):
going to be a bigger role for him this year.
And everything that could have gone wrong for that position
in Kansas City last year, did some of it self
inflicted by the Chiefs. Maybe some others not so much.
Can't deal with the injuries, COVID situation, whatever. I just
think it's a much better situation for Clyde Edwards. Hilaris. Yeah,
the offensive line right towards the end of the year
it crumbled. Uh, you had one of your starters is
(21:54):
a doctor, so he was off fighting COVID. Uh you
do bring you know, a former star lineman back out
of retirement. I don't know what you're getting out of
him there, but you know, it's a jumbled front five.
I don't know that we've really had this happened before
because the Steelers are doing the same thing. Right, It's
(22:15):
it's a completely new front five. So we'll see, you
know what it what it looks like obviously some guys returning,
you know for Kansas City, but from what we last saw, uh,
it's it's just a big switch up. But yeah, I
would expect Edward Hilaire. He's one of those guys that
that could greatly outperform the this point in the draft board,
(22:35):
just based on what you have streaking down the field
between McCole, Hardman, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey. You know,
linebackers are in hell trying to figure out what the
assignments are and if you miss, he's gone, right, So
that's where he's at. I've got David Montgomery sixteen, a
guy who finished fourth or six depending on your your
(22:56):
format last year. For him, he's that low. For me,
the offensive line for Chicago is is terrible. I'm not
a Matte Naggy play calling believer. I do think justin
fields once he's in, changes that and they'll run the
offense kind of like they did down the stretch with
Mitchell Trobinsky, which means it'll be potent, but I think
he'll be stubborn and stay away from that early is Naggy.
(23:20):
But you also have Damian Williams, who came over from
the Chiefs after sitting out last year and Tari Cohen
will be back, So the pass catching and some of
the other responsibilities Montgomery took on might drift away. I've
got javant Day Williams the rookie for the Broncos. I
love their skill positions. I think you'll see Drew Lock eventually,
(23:43):
but Teddy, because look, people over over overblown I thought
was the how well Teddy takes care of the football.
He's still had only one point four seven touchdowns per
interception in his career, not exactly a world beating stat
better than Drew Lock, but not as as great as
the reputation and the blow aviators make it out to be.
(24:05):
But you've got enough skill position guys that Williams should
have some success, uh succeeding and fighting out Melvin Gordon.
Then Chris Carson comes in, Mike Davis, who's a guy
a debated ranking higher because he's been very good out
of the backfield as a receiver the last couple of years.
And then that's where James Robinson, my man crush comes
in ahead of Josh Jacobs and Darrell Henderson. I am
(24:28):
I'm I'm worried about Mike Davis for for a couple
of reasons. First and foremost was Atlanta's reluctance to throw
two running backs out of the backfield. It could have
been because of their personnel last year. But then I
thought to myself, We'll wait a second, Dan, there's a
new coaching staff in Atlanta, Arthur Smith has taken over.
(24:52):
You can't think about what happened the last year. So
then I was like, Okay, well, let's take a look
at what the Titans did and throwing out of the backfield,
and I think it was actually worse than what the
Falcons did, and and and when you had what Carolina
did and you have Teddy Bridgewater, Uh, there is your
quarterback and you try to put Mike Davis in that
(25:14):
Christian McCaffrey role. It's the one thing about Davis that
I worry about. I don't think he's being overdrafted Mike.
I just um not as I'm not as sould on
Mike Davis having the similar success that we that we
I don't even know if it's similar success, but having
this success because just because he's the starter in Atlanta
(25:35):
and now he's the guy, he filled in fine for
Christian McCaffrey. Got goal line carry score touchdowns, got targets
out of the backfield. I just don't know how much
that translates to Atlanta. We'll find out, well, we'll find out.
But yeah, I go back to when he was with
the Seahawks as well, Right, he was a solid receiver,
like with him, a lot of its health right and
(25:58):
and being able to keep did job that he earned.
But you look at last year fifty nine catches out
of the backfield, thirty four back in for the Seahawks
and also average four point six yards per carry as
you well know for that season. And then you you
look at was a loss and then comes back and
(26:18):
has as a solid year. This is more just where
where he's like, get that divide, Dan, I think is
really where what we're trying to say here is where
he could again it could ascend. But you know, I'm
not the biggest Matt Ryan fan when it comes down
to it. But we'll see if Kyle Pitts showing up
and new faces and as you said, a new coaching
staff maybe help spur things on a little bit with
(26:40):
Calvin Ridley to open things up. But Davis has all
the chances to at least make a bit of noise,
whereas in the past it's been a all right, you're
in relief or you're part of a three or four
or eight man work workload split where you have to
go and fight your way through the depth chart. UH
to be the last man's standing. Now. I was trying
(27:02):
to be kind to Mike Davis, which I didn't want
to bring up his Seahawks tenure, not that it was bad,
but I didn't want to label him as just a
guy or just you know. I mean, he's he's wanted
enough in these different spots, you know where he's warranted,
but really on who he is, I just think that
there's a ceiling to who he is. And I think
(27:24):
that if you look at the situation in Atlanta, saying like, oh,
he's the free agent, he's the new guys coming in
and this and that, that can maybe trick you into
thinking that Mike Davis is somebody fantasy wise that he
really isn't. That's the only it's the only concern that
I that I have about him. The the other couple
of other names that that you brought up, I mean,
(27:44):
we did our post season show last year, and you
were high on James Robinson and even in this offseason
you were high. I liked him as well, just because
I like urban Meyer running the football and I think
that's what Jacksonville is going to do. And now with
the E t N and your E you're Robinson love
now really even comes more to fruition. You love them
(28:04):
even when E t N was there. Now, what happens
with E t N out of action for the season, Yeah,
I have to imagine that. You know, you you try
to establish thrown and not get cute, right, because we
saw getting cute a little in the second preseason game.
Got Trevor Lawrence hit You thought you were watching? Is
that a rewind at the last drop back? No, he
got hit again? How many is that is? Like standing
up like a King Kong Bundy in the eighties. I'll
(28:27):
give me five. I want a five count. That's what
you got from Trevor Lawrence getting knocked on his ass repeatedly.
So that offensive line is going to need some help.
And how do you do that. You gotta have the
run game, you gotta have a little bit of the
tight end work, and you gotta have the running back
catching the ball out of the backfield. Things all all
things James Robinson showed you last year that he could do.
(28:49):
So yeah, rising uh, you know, like Casey Cayson in
the studios that I'm sitting here and the Fox Sports
Radio building would say with a bullet I don't think
I and I don't think anybody should think, and then
no one should be worried that Kenyan Drake is going
to take away from Josh Jacobs. I have heard that
(29:09):
narrative and you had Jacobs in your in your r
B two's. I don't see that happening. I don't I
I don't know. I don't know if people even watched
the Arizona Cardinals last year, and maybe that was partly
because it's the Arizona Cardinals. But I don't know how
things would get much better for Kenyan Drake in Las Vegas.
So I still like Josh Jacobs and that RB two spot.
(29:32):
I think people got rope A doped in a little
bit because the touchdown total was high and he did
get to double digits, and maybe he vultures a couple
from Jacobs along the way, but Jacobs is a complete
back and unless he's heard, he's not seeding touches because again,
the Raiders like they're at the point where they have
to win, not just because they're gonna be in fan
(29:54):
in front of fans and allegiant and trying to make
an impression. No, no, no, you know this is now
getting a little long in the tooth in terms of
building and trying to make something happen. And as we know,
when we're looking at running backs, you know, the save
for good as a referenced earlier, doesn't work. You've got
a guy that can play, and especially when he's a
depth that catching the ball out of the backfield, you
(30:16):
use him now. So I think Josh Jacobs that's the
only reason Kenyan Drake has value is that Jacobs does
have a tendency to miss some time. Alright, So before
we move on to the RB three's, let's run down
the rankings of the r B two's. Mike, Yeah, we
got J K. Dobbins, s Kwon Barkley again, controversial, Clyde Edwards, Hilaire,
(30:39):
David Montgomery, Javante Williams of Denver Bullish. That's one that
I'll uh, I'll push all in, even though I'd already
had some draft shares of Melvin Gordon. You can see
how happy I am of that Dan, Uh, Chris Carson,
Mike Davis, and then we have uh James Robinson sneaks
(30:59):
in there ahead of Josh Jacobs and Darryl Henderson. Okay,
there we go. So there's your r B two's that
you want to look at. Thunderstruck adjective shocked and amazed
by the power of fun on Carnival Riding Bolt, the
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(31:22):
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let's go to the RB three's. This we are. I
believe I'm just guessing and don't Mike's list in front
(31:42):
of me, But I believe you're gonna see uh DeAndre Swift.
I believe you're gonna see Damien Harris uh am I
right in reading any of these RB three's Mike, you
got it. We get to Kareem Hunt, We'll get us
started right. Good back into high end three and a
guy with great upside right the the commitment to the
(32:04):
run game could mean that by the end of the
year he's he's a back end RB one again. But again,
you know, when we're talking about workload splits, healthy Nick
Chubb relegates him to a little lesser position. DeAndre Swift,
uh good receiver out of the backfield. We know that
your offensive coordinator there is going to want to run
(32:26):
the ball on first, second, third down. I don't know
that Jared Goff actually gets to throw it, uh if Sorry, yeah, no,
I mean look, we watched it here with the Chargers.
I mean, you know, no disrespect to coach, but getting
it done. I've got Michael Carter as a price shot
(32:47):
for your New York football jets here, just a speed
guy can work between the tackles. And I think the
live arm of Zach Wilson actually opened some things up,
because this also shows you where the workload splits start
to be coming. All right, pick your poison. You got
many that are gonna kind of look the same as
you rolled through. Miles Sanders, who I was bullish on
(33:08):
last year. Uh the injuries. The offensive line was the
most juggled in all of football. And I still don't
think they like Jalen Hurts very much. I may be wrong,
but there's just so much noise come out of Philly
that I'm I'm a little nervous to go all in
on anyone player from that roster. Whrah Hee Mostert another
guy who could if he stays healthy and backs off
(33:31):
Tray Sermon, et cetera, could be in for a monster year,
right because if he hits daylight, he gone like you
ain't catching him. But again, you've got a number of
miles potentially to feed Wilson and so many others that
it gets muddy. Likewise, Miles Gaskin in Miami a team
where things if they go right for Tua and what
(33:51):
that offense is assembled, that's all good. But there's three
or four running backs there that could come in and
Vulture not only carries, but certainly the coveted red zone looks.
And then we get into where it muddies even more.
Chase Edmonds, right, we mentioned James Conner earlier. I like
Zack Moss over Devin Singletary to have a bigger role
(34:13):
for the Buffalo Bills and Bills Mafia Damian Harris. Why
because I don't trust Bill Belichick. Sorry. As much as
I love what the skill set, I love what he
is compared to James White and the others in that backfield,
but we know they all have their roles. Even though
Sony Michelle has gone, there's no guarantee that suddenly Harris
(34:34):
is touching the ball twenty times a game. And even
if he does in week one, week two, don't bank
on it. Don't bank on it. Uh. And then Melvin Gordon,
Ronald Jones, David Johnson, those are the guys that starts
sliding in there after. Yeah, the Army three group is
actually a lot thinner, because then you start getting into
the minutia of split back fields, of guys who I
(34:57):
just don't know who you could count on a week
to week. And you know, you mentioned, you mentioned, you
know a guy like David Johnson, And now you got
Mark Ingram and Philip Lindsay and Houston and and and
and I honestly, I honestly don't think the Texans will
be the worst team in the league because of a
lot of the veterans that they have on that team.
I don't think they're gonna be good, but I don't
(35:18):
think they're gonna be the worst team in the league.
The problem is he just I don't I don't know
which one to pick. Like, you would think that David Johnson,
after what he did last year in the limited time,
maybe you would be the guy, but there's also injuries.
He you know, suffered a concussion last year and there's
been an injury history with him. And now you bring
up Philip Lindsay, who's kind of who's not David Johnson
(35:39):
in the skill set, but he's a better receiver than
I think that you would get, or the guy who
could at least catch the ball out of the backfield.
You think mark ingram is gonna be at the goal line.
So yeah, that when when you're and that's just an
example of what you're getting. I think that the RB
three group is, you know, is a really really small
group and at that point you're just kind of taking
flyers on guys hoping that it's gonna work out. Are
(36:00):
you start looking at Gus Edwards, who you know, we'll
still have a role for the Ravens, But how much
is it going to be relative to Dobbins and what
Lamar Jackson does himself as a as a runner. You
look at James White, you know you're gonna have a
handful of targets, but how much more beyond that? Because
there are some games where the game plan and scheme works,
(36:21):
and how much of it is Cam Newton versus Mac Jones, Right,
that's gonna decide a little of that flow as well.
I talked about Trey sermon potential that he becomes the
number one guy in what is historically a run first offense.
But once Trey Lance becomes the guy, assuming that he
does right, Jimmy Garoppolo, people can love him or hate him.
(36:42):
The the guy wins football games because he doesn't screwed up.
Going back to your Tarrod Taylor, you know I want
the book written by Trod Taylor my crazy two years
in the NFL. First, I get stabbed and lose my
my first my first strength job with a talented charger
squad and the rookie takes it. And then I go
to Houston and we've got scandal with the starter. So
(37:04):
I become the man for the Houston Texas. But he
doesn't turn the ball over right, and that's what they're
banking on. If they could play a little bit of defense,
run the football effectively with that three headed monster, then
maybe you've got something. Jamal Williams is a guy I
think being slept on a bit. There's an opportunity for
him in Detroit again swift with some injury history, and
(37:25):
Jamal Williams acquitted himself quite nicely as a member of
the Green Bay Packers. Then Singletary Lindsay, Kenyan Drake who
we talked about before, and then a guy I try
to try to figure out how easy it was to
to mark him, because if Ezekiel Elliott is everything that
he's supposed to be, Tony Pollard doesn't see the field
a ton But we know Tony Pollard can perform as
(37:47):
an RB one given touches, but given the givens, I
can't assume that he's seeing the field. In other words,
handcuffing baby and be ready to roll. We tried to
make this episode for you, you the most efficient. Basically,
here are the running backs, here's your RB ones, here's
your r B two's, and here's your RB three's, and
(38:09):
we hope that that can provide you with the information
that you need on draft day. I'm just gonna say it,
get your running backs and get them early, because the
last thing that you want to be doing on a
Sunday morning is sitting there in front of your computer
or on your phone looking at an app saying, Gosh,
(38:30):
Devin Single, Terry Er, Zack Moss, which bill do I start?
Or going through a okay, Michael Carter or Leonard four
net Like, that's the last thing you want to do.
Get your guys, get them early. And there's gonna be injuries,
so it's not like you're gonna have more running backs
than you need. Because even if all your guys didn't
stay healthy, everybody comes knocking on your door because they
(38:54):
know that you have extra running backs. And that is
my sermon to you, not a trace sermon, and but
my sermon to you is to value the running backs.
And it's why, honestly, we's trying to give you no
bs to this episode. It's the most important position in
my minded fantasy, in Mike's mind, and we laid it
out for you. That's what you got with your running backs.
(39:15):
We gave you some of the the detailed accounts from
a standard league. Let me let me give it for
those in the PPR leagues to show you how stark
the contrast is from the top too, even the drift
into the R B Two's right. Last year, the difference
between RB one and RB twelve and PPRD seventy one points,
(39:38):
so ten points a week, just like that, go back
to Christian McCaffrey had just that ridiculous year. So I
don't know if we can count it, but the difference
was two dred thirty nine points between RB one and
RB twelve. If I take number two, who was Aaron Jones,
it's still a robust eight two points between RB one
(40:00):
at RB twelve, and then you know, we start drifting
down to twenty four or thirty six. I mean you're
you're now half of the points of the number one
back and at thirty six you're talking like a third.
So yeah, the drop off is stark. So you need
that bell cow to get things anchored, because there's plenty
(40:21):
of receivers, as we've chronicled already, and certainly the quarterback
position unless there's just a guy you're absolutely enamored with
because you've already bought the jersey, or you want the
guy for your favorite team, you can wait. And I
would say this in a PPR league if you are
take all of the information that we gave here for
(40:41):
the RB ones at RB two's, but for your RB three,
four and five is if you're gonna fill out your
roster in that way, uh, then do your j D. McKissick.
Then do you Hines, Then do your James White. You know,
that's that's what you can use it for. But everybody
that we mentioned in the beginning is going to be
the guys that you're going to want. And that's it's
(41:02):
it's the most important position PPR or not in my mind,
running backs running backs when your leagues, running backs don't
win your leagues, and I give me all the analytics
you want, I'm still sticking by that motto. No, I agree.
You know, the zero running back theory is fine in theory.
And look, I I draft leagues and I do some
theory testing dan and usually it's disastrous if I stay
(41:26):
away from running backs early, because all of a sudden,
you're RB two is a guy that you're hoping touches
the ball more than six times, or the game scheme
suddenly becomes please, oh please, oh, please dump it off
into he minds because it's going disastrously. Uh, that's not
the way to win, not consistently. You might eat out
(41:48):
a couple of w's that way, but all it's gonna
do is screw you on the wire. I I love
Antonio Gibson like you. Uh, he'd be the guy that
i'd want to go get. I think I'm a little
higher on Miles Asking then you are. Despite that crowded room.
I think he continues to show up in Miami, and
I'm not as hign Mike Davis. So let's just we
We talked about it during the pod. That's how I
(42:10):
feel about those guys. But those are my two cents.
All Right, we've done quarterbacks soon tight ends, we've done
wide receivers, and now we've done running backs. In our
final preseason episode of I Want Your Flex, yeah, we're
gonna do a draft preview. So yeah, so we're throwing
everybody in the pot and we're gonna come out with
this bad boy. So you are prepared to dominate your
(42:33):
one fantasy football league. Get Mike Harmon on Twitter at
Swollen Dome. You can find me Dan Buyer on Twitter
at Dan buyer on Fox. We will talk to you
again in our Draft special. Until then, be well this
Valentine's Day. You know just what to get that special
someone because you know just what makes them tick. So
(42:53):
head on over to pro flowers dot com to get
fresh this Valentine's Day and get off through February four
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This Valentine's Day. You know just what to get that
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in ascented, a teddy Bear roses and a teddy bear. Yeah,
a teddy Bear. So head on over to pro flowers
dot com to get fresh this Valentine's Day and get
fifteen percent off gifts for your special someone with promo
(00:20):
code Crush fifteen. That's Crush fifteen and pro flowers dot
com for off through February fourteenth. On Flowers gifts and
more for Valentine's Day, see website for details. You want
experience during your football season, well buckle up, sweet cheeks.
We've got all the experience in the world. This is
(00:42):
I Want Your Flex with Dan Buyer and Mike Harman.
Mike and Dan breakdown everything you need to set your
line up from position rankings, two starts and sits. The
guys help you make those hard decisions and now let's
get your flex on. Here's Dan and Mike Harman another
(01:04):
episode If I Want Your Flex Episode three of our
second season, and Mike, I actually think this is our
biggest episode that we do Position wise because I have
always been and always will be a running back guy
when it comes to fantasy football. We talk running backs
(01:25):
today and I want your flex well, such a huge position,
because you know, we get into this and and obviously
doing local hits and different things, you always have the
questions that that flow and and a lot of it
gets into you know, how early you drafted a quarterback
whatever else? And I begin with the primer on running
backs and how much you know you're looking at your
(01:45):
settings and in general there's at least twenty four that
are active every week, right, plus flex positions, et cetera,
Which means we've got to look at drop offs, we've
got to look at committees, we've got to look at
that third back that's coming in to screw things up.
Oh and the quarterbacks that run a lot themselves. So
it messes things to a point where we look at
(02:07):
even going just back to last year, Dan, the difference
between RB one in a standard league and RB twelve
was nearly half the number of points scored by r
r B twelve. Right, So three or four team down
to one, sixty seven go to one, go to running
(02:30):
back twenty four. The dips only another thirty seven so
on on average, you know, divide that by sixteen or
seventeen as it were. You know, if we're gonna use
the all all the data points possible, Man, you're looking
at two a week going from the back end of
the first running back to the end of the r
B two's and then all the way down to running
(02:52):
back thirty six, where you know, it's another twenty point dip,
but again over seventeen weeks, not very much. But that
stark contrast between RB one and RB twelve is why
running backs come off the board fast and furiously PPR
or not, because the value is there. Get Mike on
Twitter at swollen Dome, find me on Twitter at Dan
(03:15):
Buyer on Fox. And I'm gonna admit it, I'm an
old school guy with this stuff. I really am. And
you you talked about the breakdowns of the difference between
the top running back and the twelve ranked running back
and the difference between there. I will look at numbers,
and I will look at what guys did in and
as you do these refreshers for for these fantasy podcasts,
(03:37):
or you're looking back on the season and you're prepping
for the first thing that stood out to me the
biggest number, and it's it doesn't tell the whole story
about running backs, but I was shocked Mike that the
difference in rushing yards between the number one running back
and the number three running back last year in the
regular season was eight hundred and fifty yards. You had
(03:58):
Derrick Henry break two thousand, then you had Dalvin Cook
at fifty seven, and third place was Jonathan Taylor with
eleven hundred and sixty nine yards. It's when the eight
hundred and fifty yards between Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor
and both of those guys are top three and again,
(04:19):
receiving yards, I know comes comes into all of this.
I'm not saying anything about the guys, but just that
stat alone blew my mind on what we have at
the running back position position and just simply running the football. Yeah,
you're thinking about the splits. You know, we do a
lot of analysis during the course of the year, Dan
on offensive line cohesion and how many shuffling jobs have
(04:43):
to be done because of injury and ineffectiveness over the
course of a year. I mean, you just look at
last year. You mentioned Henry, Cook and Taylor and the
drop off between the three. They're right, the fact that
we only have eight to ten thousand yard rushers each
year as we have those second backs, right, the guys
that are passed catching specialists, or you're just not subjecting
(05:06):
the back to heavy workloads. I mean when you add
in the receptions, just to combine those for a moment,
you had only three players get over three touches out
of the position last year, Henry Cook and Jacobs. I
mean that equates to just eighteen point eight over a
sixteen game season, right, So it's not even like it
(05:28):
used to be where you handed the ball to Barry
Sanders and pick your favorite bell cow of yesteryear, where
it was thirty carries a game, regardless of down distance score.
You know they they had just as good a chance
of of getting the offense going by tucking the ball
into his gut is trying to pass downfield. Nowadays we
(05:49):
know that that's just not the case. So you have
these dramatic drop offs. I mean, in terms of carries, right,
Henry with his three seventy eight, Cook was second at
three twelve. Jonathan Taylor had two, Hunter thirty two Dan.
I mean, it's a hundred and forties six carried difference
between first and third, and then and then you go
(06:11):
to Aaron Jones, it drops another thirty. Like we're talking,
you know, just that huge departure from what we grew
up with. Three yards in a cloud of dust. I'll
be honest, I miss it. And when a team can
establish it's why you know I'm a closet Cleveland Browns fan,
even though I'm a Bears guy, Chicago kid. But you
know what, if you're gonna put the ball into the
(06:34):
guts of of Chubb and Kareem Hunt, I'm all on board.
Let's go. I'll say this as well. Would you talk
about Derrick Henry and his usage and while as crazy
as that stat is, and actually I like that step
more that he was eight hundred and fifty yards more
than third place, wasn't rushing. My other favorite Derrick Henry
(06:56):
stat is Derrick Henry had nineteen catches Lie Nest year
for the for the Titans for about a buck fourteen.
I think the official number was one of those went
for fifty three yards, so that means the other eighteen
made up sixty one yards. So that's what you're gonna
get from Derrick Henry. Maybe you get the one that's
the fifty three yard or in that one game, but
(07:19):
all those other games you're just gonna have to rely
on what he did did running the ball, because that's
who Derrick Henry is. I just I love that stat
that nearly half of his receiving yards came on one
reception last year's brilliant man. That's the fun with numbers
inside the game. But I mean we go down the
list of running backs and and and as you look
(07:39):
at rushing yards from a year ago, I mean, look
at some of the guys that might not really have
much of a job as as we get here right
now among your leaderboard. I mean, Frank Gore's forty seven
years old, he was still getting it done. Melvin Gordon
in a workload battle, Kenyan Drake backup in in Nevada.
(07:59):
You know, Miles Sanders is the guy for the moment.
And you just keep going on down the list. You know,
James Conner and Ronald Jones, Kareem Hunt, we already talked
about him, like all of these guys are in splints.
We'll talk about them more in detail later on, but
just showing you the potential for just a twist in
(08:20):
a big way as to opportunity and results for your
fantasy squads. This year, you basically named, uh, half of
the crappy were actually more than half of the crappy
running backs, so that we're on my team. Last year,
James Conner, Kenyan, Drake Miles, Sanders, Ronald Jones all appearing
on my fantasy football team at least at one point.
(08:43):
All right, let's get into these Let's get into these
top guys. Because we are talking about Derrick Henry. I
want to get into your rankings. What do you have
And and by the way, I don't want to spend
tons of time on the top of the running back
position because I think the real meat is really in
that R B two RB three category. But still, if
(09:03):
you're holding a top pick, there are decisions that you're
gonna have to make. There are guys that you may
want to want to drop down to you. So let's
hear what Mike's got to say for his top running
backs in the class or in the draft. Of Yeah,
some of it gets chaotic because we're looking at injury
histories and wondering about durability and coaches. You know, my
mom always had a saying Dan, and I think I've
(09:25):
used this on the podcast before. I'm gonna save stuff
for good, right, so I bought, you know, we'd buy
a nice blouse, maybe maybe you know, some slacks, or
you know, a nice sweater, not necessarily you know, the
holiday sweater, but it's just a nice sweater. Like hey,
you know in Chicago, brisk and even in Tampa if
you're if you're out late, down by the water or whatever,
(09:46):
and uh, it would go to the back of a
closet and you'd be like, hey, how come you never
wear this? And I'd be like, well, I'm saving it
for good. It's like, well, goods today, we woke up today,
use it today, not for some special event that may
ever come come on. And then she'd change, you know,
what she wanted esthetically, and she'd start giving the stuff
away for donations, which is fine, all going to great
(10:09):
causes and hopefully used and loved in another home. But
it was always the I'm saving it for good. So
you're gonna have some of those situations with some of
these players right where based on where game positioning, they're
gonna drift a little bit. But all that filibustering aside,
you know, your top tier is three guys, and then
it's just a matter of do you trust Christian McCaffrey
(10:32):
coming back behind that old line in Carolina coming off
the injury. I do. He's my number one. I've got
Henry second. I'm not expecting the drop off just yet.
Dalvin Cook PPR League I I could be uh, you
could argue me into us switching those guys around too three,
but I think those are the class and I think
(10:52):
we can all agree to that. It starts getting a
little muddy thereafter. I've got Aaron Jones still forth. Many
still believe that a J. Dillon will start reaching in.
I say they paid Aaron Jones for a reason, and
he comes back for a reason. Nick Chubb was one
of those guys on an average game, uh, putting up
those kind of touches that would put him in the elite.
(11:12):
Unfortunately played twelve games, So we'll look for him at
number five. And then I'm a big Antonio Gibson guy.
I think there's a two way player here, and maybe
I want to believe that the neck Beard can get
through another season with the talent that's assembled there in Washington.
But I've got Gibson there. Uh then Taylor, assuming of
(11:34):
course that Quentin Nelson's footholds up. Alvin Kamara at eight
because of a little uncertainty as to what this offense
looks like this year, Ezekiel Elliott again questions going to
Dak Prescott as much as Zeke being in the quote
best shape of his life life at ten, Naji Harris
at eleven, Austin Ekeler and number twelve Joe Mixon. And
(11:58):
you've got three guys at the back end there that
are you know, questions. Harris fits checks all the boxes
as long as that offensive line is right, and Roethlisberger
is willing to wing it a little bit to spread
the offense. You got Ekeler with some injury concerns and
and other players on the roster that I think will
spell him a bit. Again. If you've got playoff aspirations,
you're only going as far as some of these weapons
(12:21):
UH can can take you. For Justin Herbert, and I
think Ekeler needs to be on the field, and then
Joe Mixon. Cincinnati such a wild card with Joe Burrow
coming back, plus an offensive line that I don't know
how much better it is than a year ago. And
Mixon's own injury history leaves you kind of wringing your
hands a little bit. Of your twelve, I had eleven
(12:44):
of those. The only one that I didn't write down
was mixing who, by the way, I had on the
list of my own list the name that it's not
that I don't think you left out. I think a
lot of people are afraid of say Kwon Barkley and
don't want to take that risk. Considering how the Giants
have been a bit evasive. There's been a little bit
(13:05):
more production of him doing some eleven on eleven stuff,
but I mean basically the entire Giants offense seems that
seems to be heard right now. I mean you, Kenny Golladay,
say Kwon Barkley is totally like the health of the
Giants is a thing. But with Barkley, I think that's
it's it's not only him playing this year, but it's
also sustaining another injury when he actually does play well.
(13:28):
And that's just it. Right. If we were to do
an offensive line ranking, uh, they're a team that's definitely
in your bottom ten on paper. H As you talked
about Daniel Jones, I don't know what he is Dolla
Day only played five games last year? Is he gonna
be healthy for a full run? If you look at
the skill position players, you're you're saying, okay, they've got
(13:48):
a decent arsenal for for Jones. But Barkley, you know,
as we we sit down to talk this out, you know,
very late on Thursday of the ex just to give
it a name date in time, the headline today was, yeah,
he got through a little bit of work. And it's like,
all right, what does that mean. It's like, it's the
twenty six of August. It's like, where's the ramp towards playing?
(14:12):
I don't see it? And so that leaves me nervous
when on the back end of that roster, not that
you're buying into the rest of the roster, but you're
looking at Davante Booker and and and a couple of
journeymen are your you know, Clement uh and others are
your backup tailbax. But for Barkley, is that the guy
from three years you know that burst down the scene
as a rookie and had some big games. And remember
(14:35):
he either needed a big gain or he was quiet, right,
that was the thing. He was one of those guys
not not quite to go down the full Barry Sanders
mode of one negative three, zero seventy six and a touchdown.
But certainly you know he he was dependent on busting
one of those twenty five thirty yard runs as a
saver to his day. Look, they all count just the same.
(14:58):
They're in the box, score, down distance and all of
that fun fun stuff. But I don't bank on huge runs.
I like consistency. Uh. And so Barkley for me is
sitting at fourteen. I got some groans at an event
in San Diego, but I'll stay with it. If he outperforms,
then good on him. Uh. Quadzilla had returned the question
(15:21):
that I have for you, and then we could kind
of put the rv ones in our rear view mirror, which,
by the way, you know, I I You're You're twelve
that you mentioned were in my top thirteen. You and
I had the same exact top eight, just different order
with a few guys. One of those guys was Alvin Kamara.
I do think and maybe I fall victim to it
(15:44):
as well. The Christmas Day the Christmas Day massacre if
you're a Vikings fan last year, where Camara had six
touchdowns in that game really boosted up his overall totals
for for what he had. However, to your point of
where the same paints are, we don't necessarily know where
they are, and Camara to take a hit. When Taysom
(16:04):
Hill ended up being the quarterback, we think it's gonna
be Jamis Winston. I guess the point that I'm I'm
not making as I'm more I'm asking PPR, can you
put Camara up? If Winston is the guy a little
bit higher than the others because of his past catching ability,
I would say that that would boost him potentially a
(16:24):
couple of slots. And now obviously we're assuming based on
everything we hear we're hearing, and certainly out of his
Week two performance that you know the locker room is
rallying around Winston at this point. But as we know,
that can also turn on a dime, right he gets
careless with the football and Sean Payton's gonna yank him. Yeah,
and I still think you're gonna see enough of Taysom
(16:46):
Hill to frustrate the hell out of you at that position,
but certainly for the offense overall. I mean, you look
at Camara at last year was an eighty three receptions
for him on the year, and with no discernible number
one in sight. Callowy has shown out pretty nicely in
the preseason, but everybody else is hurt or embattled, and
(17:07):
we use that term very loosely to try to figure
out what the hell is going on with Michael Thomas
and how you know, between the off the field stuff
punches last year, some grousing battles and not answering calls
and all of those things that we've talked about in
the previous two episodes that you know, we don't know
what when he's return date is, but what it means
(17:30):
is you don't have wide receivers other than Jamis is
going to try to pin it downfield, right case. Troutman's
banged up already, one of the sleepers at tight end.
So when we're starting to look at what the receiving
corps is, Yeah, even with Winston being able to wing it,
who's he winging a two? And so that doesn't that
mean four guys that are just standing there in a
box like you're playing box in one in defense and
(17:54):
uh basketball on Alvin Kamara just you know, quadruple team him. No,
not now that sounds like it's gonna cost you. I
know what to do. I'm going to cash in at
USA dot com. I can apply in minutes, get an
instant decision, and if approved, I could have the money
(18:15):
in my account as soon as the same business day.
When you need money, fast be the hero. Go to
cash net USA dot com to apply for the money
you need. Now, the exact timing is to when your
loan funds will be available will be determined by your
banking institution. Let's get to these r B two's for
the group that I think are are really a where
the decisions are going to be made. If you have
(18:37):
a first round pick, you're likely using it on one
of these, on one of the r V ones that
you mentioned. I think now we get into the r
B two group after that that twelve ranking. I I
had Nag Harris at number twelve on my rankings, like
he was right on the border Joe Mix and I
had next. And then there's this grouping and and and
(18:59):
you have Clyde Edwards Hilaire, you have J. K. Dobbins,
you have Miles Sanders, you have Chris Carson, you have
David Montgomery. Uh, you have James Robinson, f Darryl Henderson.
I know I'm missing a couple of names, but that's
the group and the and and there's gonna be a
guy that's gonna kill you, that is not going to produce,
(19:19):
and then there's gonna be a guy that's gonna make good.
And you're gonna have two really good running backs in
your league hopefully that's what that's what we want in
that RB two grouping and and and I didn't mention
Miles Gaskin's name, but I'm throwing him in there as well,
and Josh Jacobs and DeAndre Swift and whoever. But in
that RB two group, Mike, how does it break down
for you as we look what you've got going at
(19:41):
maybe thirteen through twenty or twenty three. Uh, Dobbins to Barkley,
to Edwards Hilaire, who again on a per game basis,
was performing. It was quiet, right, but the the aggregate
what was solid if and should have staying healthy, uh
(20:02):
and being able to pick up that touchcount just a bit.
And I think that and I think a couple of
things really with Clyde Edwards Hilaire. We talked a lot
about him last year because I was so high on
what I thought he could do with it. You got
a tattoo. He did not. But I but I should
have for a penalty for how much I supported Clyde
Edwards Hilaire. The problem last year were a bunch of
(20:25):
problems he didn't have. Uh, you had a Kansas City
Chief team that actually used him pretty well in the
first part. We know what happened when Levian Bell came in.
Then he started talking about some of their offensive line issues. Uh,
in Mitchell Schwartz wasn't playing. Then he ends up going
down with an injury. But when everything comes when when
he comes back, he ends up being their guy in
(20:48):
the super Bowl when they don't really have a running game.
Now you talk about all the Andy Reid's second year
running back stuff that we hear, we hear you know
how they addressed the line both in the draft and
in free agency in the office season, and honestly, Mike,
I know that they realized so much on Patrick Mahomes
and his shoulders and what's on his shoulders. But you
(21:09):
have to at least attempt to run the ball a
little bit more than they did. And I think that
they are going to try to at least remedy what
happened in Super Bowl when it was just Mahomes running
for his life yards laterally, Dan, Yes, we've we've talked
about this. It's I feel like I'm having deja vu
talking about it. But I just think that there is
(21:31):
going to be a bigger role for him this year.
And everything that could have gone wrong for that position
in Kansas City last year, did some of it self
inflicted by the Chiefs. Maybe some others not so much.
Can't deal with the injuries, COVID situation, whatever. I just
think it's a much better situation for Clyde Edwards. Hilaris. Yeah,
the offensive line right towards the end of the year
it crumbled. Uh, you had one of your starters is
(21:54):
a doctor, so he was off fighting COVID. Uh you
do bring you know, a former star lineman back out
of retirement. I don't know what you're getting out of
him there, but you know, it's a jumbled front five.
I don't know that we've really had this happened before
because the Steelers are doing the same thing. Right, It's
(22:15):
it's a completely new front five. So we'll see, you
know what it what it looks like obviously some guys returning,
you know for Kansas City, but from what we last saw, uh,
it's it's just a big switch up. But yeah, I
would expect Edward Hilaire. He's one of those guys that
that could greatly outperform the this point in the draft board,
(22:35):
just based on what you have streaking down the field
between McCole, Hardman, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey. You know,
linebackers are in hell trying to figure out what the
assignments are and if you miss, he's gone, right, So
that's where he's at. I've got David Montgomery sixteen, a
guy who finished fourth or six depending on your your
(22:56):
format last year. For him, he's that low. For me,
the offensive line for Chicago is is terrible. I'm not
a Matte Naggy play calling believer. I do think justin
fields once he's in, changes that and they'll run the
offense kind of like they did down the stretch with
Mitchell Trobinsky, which means it'll be potent, but I think
he'll be stubborn and stay away from that early is Naggy.
(23:20):
But you also have Damian Williams, who came over from
the Chiefs after sitting out last year and Tari Cohen
will be back, So the pass catching and some of
the other responsibilities Montgomery took on might drift away. I've
got javant Day Williams the rookie for the Broncos. I
love their skill positions. I think you'll see Drew Lock eventually,
(23:43):
but Teddy, because look, people over over overblown I thought
was the how well Teddy takes care of the football.
He's still had only one point four seven touchdowns per
interception in his career, not exactly a world beating stat
better than Drew Lock, but not as as great as
the reputation and the blow aviators make it out to be.
(24:05):
But you've got enough skill position guys that Williams should
have some success, uh succeeding and fighting out Melvin Gordon.
Then Chris Carson comes in, Mike Davis, who's a guy
a debated ranking higher because he's been very good out
of the backfield as a receiver the last couple of years.
And then that's where James Robinson, my man crush comes
in ahead of Josh Jacobs and Darrell Henderson. I am
(24:28):
I'm I'm worried about Mike Davis for for a couple
of reasons. First and foremost was Atlanta's reluctance to throw
two running backs out of the backfield. It could have
been because of their personnel last year. But then I
thought to myself, We'll wait a second, Dan, there's a
new coaching staff in Atlanta, Arthur Smith has taken over.
(24:52):
You can't think about what happened the last year. So
then I was like, Okay, well, let's take a look
at what the Titans did and throwing out of the backfield,
and I think it was actually worse than what the
Falcons did, and and and when you had what Carolina
did and you have Teddy Bridgewater, Uh, there is your
quarterback and you try to put Mike Davis in that
(25:14):
Christian McCaffrey role. It's the one thing about Davis that
I worry about. I don't think he's being overdrafted Mike.
I just um not as I'm not as sould on
Mike Davis having the similar success that we that we
I don't even know if it's similar success, but having
this success because just because he's the starter in Atlanta
(25:35):
and now he's the guy, he filled in fine for
Christian McCaffrey. Got goal line carry score touchdowns, got targets
out of the backfield. I just don't know how much
that translates to Atlanta. We'll find out, well, we'll find out.
But yeah, I go back to when he was with
the Seahawks as well, Right, he was a solid receiver,
like with him, a lot of its health right and
(25:58):
and being able to keep did job that he earned.
But you look at last year fifty nine catches out
of the backfield, thirty four back in for the Seahawks
and also average four point six yards per carry as
you well know for that season. And then you you
look at was a loss and then comes back and
(26:18):
has as a solid year. This is more just where
where he's like, get that divide, Dan, I think is
really where what we're trying to say here is where
he could again it could ascend. But you know, I'm
not the biggest Matt Ryan fan when it comes down
to it. But we'll see if Kyle Pitts showing up
and new faces and as you said, a new coaching
staff maybe help spur things on a little bit with
(26:40):
Calvin Ridley to open things up. But Davis has all
the chances to at least make a bit of noise,
whereas in the past it's been a all right, you're
in relief or you're part of a three or four
or eight man work workload split where you have to
go and fight your way through the depth chart. UH
to be the last man's standing. Now. I was trying
(27:02):
to be kind to Mike Davis, which I didn't want
to bring up his Seahawks tenure, not that it was bad,
but I didn't want to label him as just a
guy or just you know. I mean, he's he's wanted
enough in these different spots, you know where he's warranted,
but really on who he is, I just think that
there's a ceiling to who he is. And I think
(27:24):
that if you look at the situation in Atlanta, saying like, oh,
he's the free agent, he's the new guys coming in
and this and that, that can maybe trick you into
thinking that Mike Davis is somebody fantasy wise that he
really isn't. That's the only it's the only concern that
I that I have about him. The the other couple
of other names that that you brought up, I mean,
(27:44):
we did our post season show last year, and you
were high on James Robinson and even in this offseason
you were high. I liked him as well, just because
I like urban Meyer running the football and I think
that's what Jacksonville is going to do. And now with
the E t N and your E you're Robinson love
now really even comes more to fruition. You love them
(28:04):
even when E t N was there. Now, what happens
with E t N out of action for the season, Yeah,
I have to imagine that. You know, you you try
to establish thrown and not get cute, right, because we
saw getting cute a little in the second preseason game.
Got Trevor Lawrence hit You thought you were watching? Is
that a rewind at the last drop back? No, he
got hit again? How many is that is? Like standing
up like a King Kong Bundy in the eighties. I'll
(28:27):
give me five. I want a five count. That's what
you got from Trevor Lawrence getting knocked on his ass repeatedly.
So that offensive line is going to need some help.
And how do you do that. You gotta have the
run game, you gotta have a little bit of the
tight end work, and you gotta have the running back
catching the ball out of the backfield. Things all all
things James Robinson showed you last year that he could do.
(28:49):
So yeah, rising uh, you know, like Casey Cayson in
the studios that I'm sitting here and the Fox Sports
Radio building would say with a bullet I don't think
I and I don't think anybody should think, and then
no one should be worried that Kenyan Drake is going
to take away from Josh Jacobs. I have heard that
(29:09):
narrative and you had Jacobs in your in your r
B two's. I don't see that happening. I don't I
I don't know. I don't know if people even watched
the Arizona Cardinals last year, and maybe that was partly
because it's the Arizona Cardinals. But I don't know how
things would get much better for Kenyan Drake in Las Vegas.
So I still like Josh Jacobs and that RB two spot.
(29:32):
I think people got rope A doped in a little
bit because the touchdown total was high and he did
get to double digits, and maybe he vultures a couple
from Jacobs along the way, but Jacobs is a complete
back and unless he's heard, he's not seeding touches because again,
the Raiders like they're at the point where they have
to win, not just because they're gonna be in fan
(29:54):
in front of fans and allegiant and trying to make
an impression. No, no, no, you know this is now
getting a little long in the tooth in terms of
building and trying to make something happen. And as we know,
when we're looking at running backs, you know, the save
for good as a referenced earlier, doesn't work. You've got
a guy that can play, and especially when he's a
depth that catching the ball out of the backfield, you
(30:16):
use him now. So I think Josh Jacobs that's the
only reason Kenyan Drake has value is that Jacobs does
have a tendency to miss some time. Alright, So before
we move on to the RB three's, let's run down
the rankings of the r B two's. Mike, Yeah, we
got J K. Dobbins, s Kwon Barkley again, controversial, Clyde Edwards, Hilaire,
(30:39):
David Montgomery, Javante Williams of Denver Bullish. That's one that
I'll uh, I'll push all in, even though I'd already
had some draft shares of Melvin Gordon. You can see
how happy I am of that Dan, Uh, Chris Carson,
Mike Davis, and then we have uh James Robinson sneaks
(30:59):
in there ahead of Josh Jacobs and Darryl Henderson. Okay,
there we go. So there's your r B two's that
you want to look at. Thunderstruck adjective shocked and amazed
by the power of fun on Carnival Riding Bolt, the
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(31:22):
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let's go to the RB three's. This we are. I
believe I'm just guessing and don't Mike's list in front
(31:42):
of me, But I believe you're gonna see uh DeAndre Swift.
I believe you're gonna see Damien Harris uh am I
right in reading any of these RB three's Mike, you
got it. We get to Kareem Hunt, We'll get us
started right. Good back into high end three and a
guy with great upside right the the commitment to the
(32:04):
run game could mean that by the end of the
year he's he's a back end RB one again. But again,
you know, when we're talking about workload splits, healthy Nick
Chubb relegates him to a little lesser position. DeAndre Swift,
uh good receiver out of the backfield. We know that
your offensive coordinator there is going to want to run
(32:26):
the ball on first, second, third down. I don't know
that Jared Goff actually gets to throw it, uh if Sorry, yeah, no,
I mean look, we watched it here with the Chargers.
I mean, you know, no disrespect to coach, but getting
it done. I've got Michael Carter as a price shot
(32:47):
for your New York football jets here, just a speed
guy can work between the tackles. And I think the
live arm of Zach Wilson actually opened some things up,
because this also shows you where the workload splits start
to be coming. All right, pick your poison. You got
many that are gonna kind of look the same as
you rolled through. Miles Sanders, who I was bullish on
(33:08):
last year. Uh the injuries. The offensive line was the
most juggled in all of football. And I still don't
think they like Jalen Hurts very much. I may be wrong,
but there's just so much noise come out of Philly
that I'm I'm a little nervous to go all in
on anyone player from that roster. Whrah Hee Mostert another
guy who could if he stays healthy and backs off
(33:31):
Tray Sermon, et cetera, could be in for a monster year,
right because if he hits daylight, he gone like you
ain't catching him. But again, you've got a number of
miles potentially to feed Wilson and so many others that
it gets muddy. Likewise, Miles Gaskin in Miami a team
where things if they go right for Tua and what
(33:51):
that offense is assembled, that's all good. But there's three
or four running backs there that could come in and
Vulture not only carries, but certainly the coveted red zone looks.
And then we get into where it muddies even more.
Chase Edmonds, right, we mentioned James Conner earlier. I like
Zack Moss over Devin Singletary to have a bigger role
(34:13):
for the Buffalo Bills and Bills Mafia Damian Harris. Why
because I don't trust Bill Belichick. Sorry. As much as
I love what the skill set, I love what he
is compared to James White and the others in that backfield,
but we know they all have their roles. Even though
Sony Michelle has gone, there's no guarantee that suddenly Harris
(34:34):
is touching the ball twenty times a game. And even
if he does in week one, week two, don't bank
on it. Don't bank on it. Uh. And then Melvin Gordon,
Ronald Jones, David Johnson, those are the guys that starts
sliding in there after. Yeah, the Army three group is
actually a lot thinner, because then you start getting into
the minutia of split back fields, of guys who I
(34:57):
just don't know who you could count on a week
to week. And you know, you mentioned, you mentioned, you
know a guy like David Johnson, And now you got
Mark Ingram and Philip Lindsay and Houston and and and
and I honestly, I honestly don't think the Texans will
be the worst team in the league because of a
lot of the veterans that they have on that team.
I don't think they're gonna be good, but I don't
(35:18):
think they're gonna be the worst team in the league.
The problem is he just I don't I don't know
which one to pick. Like, you would think that David Johnson,
after what he did last year in the limited time,
maybe you would be the guy, but there's also injuries.
He you know, suffered a concussion last year and there's
been an injury history with him. And now you bring
up Philip Lindsay, who's kind of who's not David Johnson
(35:39):
in the skill set, but he's a better receiver than
I think that you would get, or the guy who
could at least catch the ball out of the backfield.
You think mark ingram is gonna be at the goal line.
So yeah, that when when you're and that's just an
example of what you're getting. I think that the RB
three group is, you know, is a really really small
group and at that point you're just kind of taking
flyers on guys hoping that it's gonna work out. Are
(36:00):
you start looking at Gus Edwards, who you know, we'll
still have a role for the Ravens, But how much
is it going to be relative to Dobbins and what
Lamar Jackson does himself as a as a runner. You
look at James White, you know you're gonna have a
handful of targets, but how much more beyond that? Because
there are some games where the game plan and scheme works,
(36:21):
and how much of it is Cam Newton versus Mac Jones, Right,
that's gonna decide a little of that flow as well.
I talked about Trey sermon potential that he becomes the
number one guy in what is historically a run first offense.
But once Trey Lance becomes the guy, assuming that he
does right, Jimmy Garoppolo, people can love him or hate him.
(36:42):
The the guy wins football games because he doesn't screwed up.
Going back to your Tarrod Taylor, you know I want
the book written by Trod Taylor my crazy two years
in the NFL. First, I get stabbed and lose my
my first my first strength job with a talented charger
squad and the rookie takes it. And then I go
to Houston and we've got scandal with the starter. So
(37:04):
I become the man for the Houston Texas. But he
doesn't turn the ball over right, and that's what they're
banking on. If they could play a little bit of defense,
run the football effectively with that three headed monster, then
maybe you've got something. Jamal Williams is a guy I
think being slept on a bit. There's an opportunity for
him in Detroit again swift with some injury history, and
(37:25):
Jamal Williams acquitted himself quite nicely as a member of
the Green Bay Packers. Then Singletary Lindsay, Kenyan Drake who
we talked about before, and then a guy I try
to try to figure out how easy it was to
to mark him, because if Ezekiel Elliott is everything that
he's supposed to be, Tony Pollard doesn't see the field
a ton But we know Tony Pollard can perform as
(37:47):
an RB one given touches, but given the givens, I
can't assume that he's seeing the field. In other words,
handcuffing baby and be ready to roll. We tried to
make this episode for you, you the most efficient. Basically,
here are the running backs, here's your RB ones, here's
your r B two's, and here's your RB three's, and
(38:09):
we hope that that can provide you with the information
that you need on draft day. I'm just gonna say it,
get your running backs and get them early, because the
last thing that you want to be doing on a
Sunday morning is sitting there in front of your computer
or on your phone looking at an app saying, Gosh,
(38:30):
Devin Single, Terry Er, Zack Moss, which bill do I start?
Or going through a okay, Michael Carter or Leonard four
net Like, that's the last thing you want to do.
Get your guys, get them early. And there's gonna be injuries,
so it's not like you're gonna have more running backs
than you need. Because even if all your guys didn't
stay healthy, everybody comes knocking on your door because they
(38:54):
know that you have extra running backs. And that is
my sermon to you, not a trace sermon, and but
my sermon to you is to value the running backs.
And it's why, honestly, we's trying to give you no
bs to this episode. It's the most important position in
my minded fantasy, in Mike's mind, and we laid it
out for you. That's what you got with your running backs.
(39:15):
We gave you some of the the detailed accounts from
a standard league. Let me let me give it for
those in the PPR leagues to show you how stark
the contrast is from the top too, even the drift
into the R B Two's right. Last year, the difference
between RB one and RB twelve and PPRD seventy one points,
(39:38):
so ten points a week, just like that, go back
to Christian McCaffrey had just that ridiculous year. So I
don't know if we can count it, but the difference
was two dred thirty nine points between RB one and
RB twelve. If I take number two, who was Aaron Jones,
it's still a robust eight two points between RB one
(40:00):
at RB twelve, and then you know, we start drifting
down to twenty four or thirty six. I mean you're
you're now half of the points of the number one
back and at thirty six you're talking like a third.
So yeah, the drop off is stark. So you need
that bell cow to get things anchored, because there's plenty
(40:21):
of receivers, as we've chronicled already, and certainly the quarterback
position unless there's just a guy you're absolutely enamored with
because you've already bought the jersey, or you want the
guy for your favorite team, you can wait. And I
would say this in a PPR league if you are
take all of the information that we gave here for
(40:41):
the RB ones at RB two's, but for your RB three,
four and five is if you're gonna fill out your
roster in that way, uh, then do your j D. McKissick.
Then do you Hines, Then do your James White. You know,
that's that's what you can use it for. But everybody
that we mentioned in the beginning is going to be
the guys that you're going to want. And that's it's
(41:02):
it's the most important position PPR or not in my mind,
running backs running backs when your leagues, running backs don't
win your leagues, and I give me all the analytics
you want, I'm still sticking by that motto. No, I agree.
You know, the zero running back theory is fine in theory.
And look, I I draft leagues and I do some
theory testing dan and usually it's disastrous if I stay
(41:26):
away from running backs early, because all of a sudden,
you're RB two is a guy that you're hoping touches
the ball more than six times, or the game scheme
suddenly becomes please, oh please, oh, please dump it off
into he minds because it's going disastrously. Uh, that's not
the way to win, not consistently. You might eat out
(41:48):
a couple of w's that way, but all it's gonna
do is screw you on the wire. I I love
Antonio Gibson like you. Uh, he'd be the guy that
i'd want to go get. I think I'm a little
higher on Miles Asking then you are. Despite that crowded room.
I think he continues to show up in Miami, and
I'm not as hign Mike Davis. So let's just we
We talked about it during the pod. That's how I
(42:10):
feel about those guys. But those are my two cents.
All Right, we've done quarterbacks soon tight ends, we've done
wide receivers, and now we've done running backs. In our
final preseason episode of I Want Your Flex, yeah, we're
gonna do a draft preview. So yeah, so we're throwing
everybody in the pot and we're gonna come out with
this bad boy. So you are prepared to dominate your
(42:33):
one fantasy football league. Get Mike Harmon on Twitter at
Swollen Dome. You can find me Dan Buyer on Twitter
at Dan buyer on Fox. We will talk to you
again in our Draft special. Until then, be well this
Valentine's Day. You know just what to get that special
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(42:53):
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