March 6, 2022 • 46 mins
Bernie Fratto tells you the six NCAA teams he thinks can win it all, tips to fill out your bracket, who he thinks will be the #1 seeds in the tournament, and another edition of Macken on Sports!
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That's anchor dot FM slash get started great. I think
we got it. We don't want This is straight out
of a Gas with the voice of bigas your host
r JA, that men's man. You are now about to
(01:29):
witness the strength of street knowledge lie from the Vegas Strip,
the pregame show America has always wanted. Here's Bernie Freddoh
you know, I said it many times. We don't have
royalty in this country. Are athletes there are royalty And uh,
I can just simply say this that with March Madness
(01:53):
around the corner and the NBA playoffs, maybe Major League
Baseball and the NFL Draft, there's always just stuff. There's
just always so much to look for. Um So, at
any rate, I've said many times before, the sports are
the greatest reality show invented. You can script everything but
the outcome, and that's why this time of year is
(02:13):
so much fun. On that note, I'm Bernie Fratiwa Company
live from the Lawns, Vegas, Fox Sports Radio Studios, and tonight,
in the first hour, We're going to devote most of
the first hour department, every donency department to March Mann.
It says yes, believe it or not. Selection Sunday is
just one week away, and and is it really a
wide open tournament like everybody says, well, I'm not so sure.
(02:36):
In fact, I've identified what I would call a six
pack of teams who can win at all. And that
means when six in a row, single elimination, win or
go home, those are games that are not for the
faint of heart. There are only six teams I think
that can do that this year, and I will list
them for you now. I've done a similar exercise, uh
(02:57):
the last four years in a row, last five years
in a row, and I was right four the five
The one time I was wrong was the year Virginia
snucketting with Tony Bennett and they won the national championship
after losing to Maryland Baltimore County. Uh, the first time
a one seed and ever lost the six d t
here before. So we'll see, Okay, about fifteen minutes. By
(03:21):
the way, I get some tips on how to fill
out your bracket from a Vegas perspective with some common sense,
proven methodologies. After Brian Families update, will project we believe
will end up being the four number one seeds when
everything is rolled out next Sunday and of course, we
wrap up the show with macin on sports, bringing the
only kind of data you can find um on. I
(03:45):
think this network in all seriousness, Sports are entertainment, but
they're more than that. They are shared experiences such people
want to talk about them. You've come to the right place.
We've got a lot to talk about tonight. This is
straight out of a gets the pregame show you always wanted.
As they say in Prince Rogers, Nelson, Minnesota, it's gonna
be lit by the way, in about an hour mark
(04:08):
your clock. About an hour from now. I'm gonna go
into great depth, great detail on this saga called the
Major League Baseball lockout, Why they couldn't get a deal,
what actually happened, how far a part they are, what
happens next? And uh, and give you some some thoughts
in perspective, Uh, in a little bit more granular way
(04:30):
that I don't think it's being reported. So wake the kids,
alert the neighbors, Grandpa, put on pants. Uh, We're gonna
talk some baseball from the standpoint of people want answers,
are angry all the time. People are reaching out to
me on Twitter asking what my thoughts are. And I'm
happy he gave him. I've been giving daily updates as
long as they're is real news. So save that because
(04:53):
I do have real news. All right, let's go to
my pick six my six pick six pack, whatever you
wanna call it. Obviously the usual suspects. You start with Gonzaga. Look,
what really caught my eye about Gonzaga was that there
Ken palms adjusted efficiency range margin and the number two
Arizona's were the larger gap than between Arizona and U C.
(05:17):
L A, which was number ten at the time I
did my research. So there's a gap there, and and
in how truly talented um Gonzaga really is. Okay, And
I know they just got upset recently and everything okay,
But the biggest differentiator with this Gonzaga team compared to
last year's defense, particularly on the interior, and you bring
(05:39):
in that long, lanky, seven ft two ninety pound chat
hole Groom, Well, he does have pretty good rim protecting ability,
and he's changed the game for teams to try to
attack the basket against his eggs because now the eggs
right third in the country per Ken Palm and two
point field goal percentage defense. So when you look at
(05:59):
the on off numbers that truly illustrate Homegren's impact when
he is on the floor, teams shoot about at the
rim and compared to fifty when Chad Holbrun is not
in the game. Uh So, Gonzaga very easily makes my
top six list. I think they doing it all this year.
(06:21):
Uh The alone concern is how Gonzaga will deal with
teams with the lead athleticism. Last year, they looked a
little overwhelmed by Baylor in the National Championship game. However,
we'll never know how much that U c l A
game took out him forty hours before. Be that as
it may, gives huge props to Baylor, and the truth
of the matter is they did Gonzaga did look a
little overmatched athletically, all right? Or is the feeling was
(06:45):
a little bit similar in November when Duke took them
down in Las Vegas and I believe they lost at home?
Did they lose at home to Alabama? One of those schools?
So look, they can be had. It's just they're one
of my six teams. Number two Auburn. There's no doubt
that Aubred has elite personnel that starts with arguably the
best front court pairing in the sport and Walker Kessler
(07:07):
and Jabari Smith. They play a modern game. Okay, it's
as good a due as you could possibly ask for
as a coach. Kessler has elite length. He also can
protect the rim. He's got great instincts around the rim,
and that's totally transformed Bruce Pearl's defense. He's also a
great lob catcher on offense and occasionally, but it has
(07:30):
stretched the defense from deep right. Then you've got you
Barie Smith, He's he's not only a good shooter, he's
a generationally good shooter. He's capable of elevating any over
anybody thinks to his height. Plus he's got long arms
and a high release points. See, that's the kind of
athleticism that could really put a scare into Gonzaga. Now,
(07:51):
Bruce Pearl he had Again, these are his two studs,
Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith, but they're not the only players.
As a matter of fact, Authorn has a deep rough
or a very athletic competitive players who can not only
handle the ball, they can defend. And I think Paccord
plays very important in the tournament. Katie Johnson is is
(08:11):
a guy who plays with great emotion, uh and and
I think Bruce Pearl has done a good job in
getting him the channel's energy and make it a positive.
But he plays downhill. He's relentless, he can go on
terrorists from from behind the yark And while mostly teams
have at least one great point guard, again, Pearl has
a pair that not only complement each other. Then you've
(08:34):
got a guy's up Jasper who is a great game
manager manager, and right on down the line, Gonzaga is
a team that is athletic and dynamic and scary. If
they don't play bone headed ball, they're gonna be a
very very very very very tough out. As I mention
with Arnie in uh and Jason Martin about an hour ago,
(08:57):
I really like Arizona. I haven't filled up my bracket
yet and it's not official prediction, but if you put
a gun to my head right now, I think Arizona
is gonna win it all. They're that good. You have
three seven footers and they can shoot threes like nobody's businessman.
And you know, an anonymous coach who played the Wildcats
(09:17):
earlier in the season basically said Arizona this is a
hell of a compliment. Quote, Arizona plays with the exces
and those of Gonzaga and the talent of Duker Kentucky.
I don't know if it gets any better than that, um,
you know, and I think if you watch them that
that that's true. They Arizona can flapping down the court,
(09:39):
they can crush you on the offensive glast, they can
dominate the paint. Christian Colocal is just an amazing presence
around the rim and a great rim protector. Plus you've
got a future NBA lottery picked and Benedict I think
would be Thurn in Thurn and I can't ever pronounce
his name right, who can be again another very explosive
score when he's when he's on a roll, when he's
(10:01):
when he's you know, on his game. These are the
reasons why the Wildcats, if you've watched any of their games,
they go through stretches, they look completely unbeatable. They look
as unbeatable as those you know, early two thousand's Kentucky
teams or nineties Duke teams or eighties whatever the UNLV team.
(10:22):
You know, there was a game at Washington, uh while
back Arizona. UM. They fell behind to eleven to start
the game and then they oh nothing, they regroup, called
time out. They're going to two four run, They're going
on thirteen two run, and then they took control. Then
by the middle of the second half they led by eight.
(10:44):
So it's down by fourteen, the lead by twenty. It's
a forty point turnaround. It's a freaking forty point team.
How does that happen? The only thing that concerns that
would be concerning with the Wildcats is the volatility of
their point guard, Cure Carissa. He's again an emotional player.
He's been very solid in his position, but at other
(11:06):
times he'll go through stretches where he'll temporarily shoot Arizona
out of the game. How do the Arizona is ever
out of the game. He had an over twelve performance
against U Cilley in January and it was sort of
a glaring example of that. Uh, he didn't play well
when when the Arizona lost to Tennessee. But I think, uh,
(11:27):
he's good enough if he brings his a game to
finish the job. Now, unlike Auburn, they don't have the
depth there at point guard, but they have plenty of
everything else. Kentucky, when you know what John Calipari never
count the old knuckle head out. What stands out most
to me again another Wildcats. Just pick Wildcats right Arizona Wildcats,
Kentucky welt Cats right now, they have what I believe
(11:50):
very good role allocation. Kentucky has been really, really impressive
since mid December and they have, you know, just three
losses in then stretch, all on the road against top
twenty Ken Palm teams. All three games. One of Kentucky's
top cards missed a significant portion due to injury. And look,
I would just say this, I can start naming all
(12:12):
their players, you know, oscars A Shave and Wheeler and
ty Ty Washington Jr. Again, they're all dynamic, athletic, highlight
real guys when they got the ball in their hands.
But they're steady players too, and they play within the
framework of of John Calipari's system. Now, they're not quite
as prolific on the boards as some of the other
teams I just mentioned, which means more time to set
(12:34):
their defense on one end and more opportunities to leak
out and push transition on the other. So they play
their way and they they're they're sort of beholding to
their way and given how good wheelers in the open court,
good luck stopping Kentucky. Once they get out and start
to fill their lanes. They they they've got I would
say Kentucky of every team I mentioned, has the best talent,
(12:54):
but best combination of talent and cohesion, and that's why
they're gonna be scary. Alright. Baylor, they start out fifteen
and oh and then they have a couple of home
losses and it's been a bit of a weird year.
They're defending national champions stuff for teams to repeat, teams
just don't repeat anymore. But if anybody can do what
they can, they're among the top contenders. I think, you know,
(13:17):
they're one of six teams that can cut down the nets.
To me, it starts with point guard players. I said earlier.
So many of the best teams in the sport this
season don't have a high level, you know, lead guard.
The Bears they've got one, obviously in James A. Ken Joe,
and again he's got to stay healthy because he's as
good as anybody could hold for. He transferred in from Arizona.
(13:38):
A great kid for Scott Drew. He replaced Davan Mitchell
and Jared Butler. Literally he did it himself. Now, I
can't really say he's an NBA prospect, which is ironic,
but he gives Baylor's offense a level of of real,
you know, fluidity and shot creation that some other teams lack.
(14:01):
And when you add in the fact a little crier
and Adam Flagler, they can fill it up there right
next to him. The Bears have a terrific backcourt. They
can win it all in March. Now, again, Baylor is
longer and more athletic than it was athletic and it
was last season. Now that's due to the additions of
a couple of freshmen, Kendell Brown and Jeremy Schen. They
(14:23):
will will most likely be a first round picks. So
look out, you know, Baylor. Here we go. Now. Duke
lost their final home game tonight. I'm sorry if you
paid for a ticket to get into Cameron Indoor, or
you're one of the people that paid fifteen thousand, that
doesn't mean Duke won't finish the job in March. Um
in April. Uh. Their ceiling is again it sounds like
(14:49):
it's history onics. Their ceiling is the highest in the
sport because at its best, Duke has four players on
the floor who can initiate ball screens and guard multiple
positions on the defensive end anytime they want that kind
of flexibility and their size and their athleticism, their tent level,
they can overwhelm teams. Now, they didn't tonight, but you
know North Carolina, these things happen in that rivalry. They
(15:10):
do have a pro level score in Paula Benchero. He
can say he's capable of carrying a team down the stretch.
And his fellow freshman Al Griffin has emerged as a
as a potent second option um. And you know, there
have been times this season where it fell like Duke
was on cruise control, maybe because the we the a
(15:31):
SEC is really down this year in my opinion, and
I think that the Devils have gone into lapses. They've
gone on a walk about. I'm not saying tonight was
one of them, but Duke Duke is really versatile. The
switch ability of their wings, they make it very hard
to exploit, exploit any mismatches. And even though they're really
still a relatively young team, they're they're remarkably good at
defending and they don't commit a lot of fouls, and
(15:53):
they pretty much discipline that way, and that's a trait
that's usually transfers in well in March. Plus, all right,
let's face it helps to have a coach who's been
in a million final fours and national games before and
this is its final year. And I know that that
doesn't guarantee anything, but I remember Al McGuire in nineteen
seventy seven, the late great Al McGuire we want to
(16:14):
become a phenomenal announcer, was head coach of the Marquette
then Warriors nineteen seventy seven entered the tournament and announced
at the beginning of the tournament a press conference this
would be his last season. Somebody elled out, you're kind
of wiley. Is this a ploy for you to get
the most out of your team so you can win
the championship? He says, come on, man, We're not gonna
(16:35):
win the championship this year, not with teams like North
Carolina in here. I hope we just become a you know,
a cockroach in a play. This beagin is who we
can fall in and mess it up for everybody else. Well,
guess what. In nineteen seventy seven, Al McGuire and the
mccartte Warriors caught fire and they won the whole darn thing.
Could that happen with Duke? He could? There's my six
(16:57):
Uh someone mentioned, uh, do I think Villanova? I might
get to that later, right, you know I really like
g Right, I would never connot Villanova. Again, this is
based on who do I trust to win six in
a row if it was a one game affair. Villanova
could be any one of these teams. Well, I don't
know if they can win six in a row, so
they can't quite make my list. So you have to
(17:18):
call me out. Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona, Duke, UM, Kentucky, and Baylor.
Those are my six pack, six of teams I think
can win it. Also, who who will be? Who will be? Uh?
The potential I'll tell you what. Let's save that for later.
(17:40):
I'm gonna say the potential one seats for later. Not
I'll give you my pick six. Let's talk about some
tips for filling out your bracket, and we'll get to
that in just a second. I want to remind you
that this April through Vegas will be hosting the two Draft,
an event that will be unlike any other with unparallel
(18:02):
energy and excitement that only the greatest arena on Earth
can deliver. Hey, I know I live here man. The
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(18:23):
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(18:47):
Sports radio dot com to win a trip to Vegas
during Draft weekend coming up, Get your pens and pencils out.
Give some tips from a Vegas perspective how to fill
out your bracket. All right, Bernie Fretto Company Line from
Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios. This is the pregame
show you always wanted, So don't go away. You're listening
(19:08):
to straight out of Vegas, the Great Bernie Fratto. Folks.
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
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(19:28):
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the interesting interactions along the way. We talked to coaches,
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(19:48):
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(21:14):
Well we're back on straight out of Vegas, the pregame
show you always wanted. I'm Bernie Fadder Company Life in
the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio studios. Before I get
to the tips and filling out your back and real
quickly and respond to the Twitter at mL times. Regarding Villanova,
there is real value on Villanova because you can get
him now to one and anytime you've got j right
(21:35):
on the sidelines, you're gonna have a team that plays smart,
plays hard, and gets better as the season goes on,
which they have and actually there are numbers on the
computer are good. Their offensive efficiency is forth in the country,
through defense efficiency is and they're also very experienced. They
have three seniors that start. However, my concern is that
(21:59):
they lack rim protection, great rim protection, and I'm not
so sure how much depth they have, and so if
you get into file trouble, that's gonna be an issue.
Bench production is not how you win titles, but you
never know. With Villanova, h never would never kind of mint.
They just can't make my top six, but one you
can hedge back and uh and and get yourself some
(22:20):
profits at any rate. Let's get to the tips for
filling out your back. And first of all, first and
foremost most I don't know circumstances. Should you pick all
four number one seeds to reach the final four. It's
tempting you look at them, but it's only happened once,
and that was back in two thousand and eight, And
in the nine years since, just twelve number one seeds
(22:42):
have reached the final four. Do the math. So the
thirty six number one seeds in the last nine years,
only twelve and even reached the final four. So I
would tell you, uh that if you pick all four
number one seed needs to make the final four, you're
bucking history very much. However, do pick a number one
(23:06):
seed to win at all? Because most likely history shows
us there's about an eight percent chance if you go
back to two thousand ten, this iteration of the tournament,
that if that a number one seeds gonna win at
all eight of the last eleven and see a tournament
champions were number one seeds, obviously including Baylor last year.
History says this year should have another number one seed
(23:29):
as well. Win it all. Find out where Gonzaga is.
Plug him into the Elite eight. They're a very good team.
They've got the longest active Sweet sixteen streak, They've appeared
in four of the last six Elite Eights, and they've
got the best team in college basketball this year. I
think on paper they also have a they'll They'll also
have a favorable eight nine matchup and two vulnerable teams
(23:52):
at the four five in the region. So while many
are not calling Gonzaga a lock to the Final four
as they have been in the past, they've got the
best odds to at least make the West Regional final.
If you're dead set on having this act get upset
before the final four, that would be the only round
that makes sense to happen. They're gonna get into the
(24:12):
Elite eight. I'd be shocked if they didn't. This is
where they live. Now everybody is gaga about analytics and metrics,
and I get it. I've always said, look, analytics, they're important.
There they told us what happened yesterday. There are a guideline,
not an inflexible anchor. When it comes to the tournament.
(24:34):
Focus more on matchups than metrics. See because metrics are
a very good way of comparing all three and fifty
seven teams against each other. And you know, you can
drive yourself nuts. You can become very complicated when you
start to compare two teams against each other because if
you understand all the nuances they're going to the general
metrics then fine, you want to live by the sword
(24:57):
and die by the sword. You want to take blake
snow out and cost your team the playoffs, no problem,
the Dodger bench was, You're happy with it. But the
general fans should be more focused on matchups. Here's why.
If two teams play similar styles, the better team is
at a huge advantage. Why Let's say one team plays
defense that dare's the other team to shoot threees. They
pack it in, but that team shoots them very well.
(25:20):
So all of a sudden, that advantage that the better
team thought they had is gone and the better team
will be shown there, the better team by the metrics,
But maybe they've got a small front court and the
underdog has a big front court that could potentially dominate
those individual matchups. Again, that should be a more appetizing
upset pick for you, and it should be a more
(25:41):
sound way for you to evaluate these games. So focus
on matchups. You'll see all the matchups. You can look
at their season records, who they played, how many points, discord,
et cetera. When in doubt, just take an extra minute
read up on those pesky mid majors because you'd be surprised.
The style that some of them play can create real trouble.
(26:03):
And you know you don't want to put all your
eggs in one basket. Remember Murray State three years ago
with John Morant. No one saw that coming. Finally, stars
do win the close games. There is a surviving, advanced
aspect of this. But over the you know, people want
to make that final highlight in in this with the
song playing in the in the background as the music
bad after the final nets are cut down on that
(26:25):
Monday night. Here's an old saying, Look, a star may
win you one game, but a team might win them all,
but the tournament has an obvious survive and advanced mentality
to it, So as you focus on individual matchups, you're
banking on a series of one on one of one
game playoffs. So you want the ball in the hand
of the Stars when it gets into crunch time and
(26:45):
heat gets out and starts to breed. If you're stuck
on a game and two, we think it's gonna come
down to the wire, again, look at the roster. Go
with a team that has the one or two players
you trust to make the plays when they're needed. Again,
teams win game as I get that, But the Stars
Windy's individual ones when they come up big, which is
why they became Stars in the first place. Coming up,
(27:10):
we'll get back to who I think will end up
being the number one seeds, but first let's go to
the summer Tongue Devil Brian family with the latest Thank
you So Much. Bernie Lebron James, maximizing his performance with
a fifty six point outing on Saturday Night for the Lakers,
says they stick it to the Warriors one to one sixteen.
(27:32):
The timber Wolves overwhelmed the Trailblazer is twenty one Karl
Anthony Towns multitasking with thirty six points along with fifteen rebounds.
Their Grizzlies continuing their dominant ways as they serve some
humility to the Magic. Memphis now second place in the
Western Conference and just by a little bit a half
(27:54):
game ahead of the Warriors, who have been struggling lately
and certainly after their most late latest loss to l
A the heat storm past the seventies six or eighty two,
Miami has won eleven out of their last thirteen games.
How about the Mavericks. They were down nineteen points, they
did not have Luka don Chich and they still found
away against the Kings, and it took everything to make
(28:17):
it happen one fourteen to one thirteen. Anare a nail
bier of a final. They're in college basketball number seventeen
u c l A. They get a home win against
their arrival, number sixteen USC, putting the Trojans in their
place seventy five to sixty eight. As the Ruins finished
second in the Pack twelve regular season, so the conference
(28:38):
is getting ready for their Pack twelve Turney North Carolina
on seats number four Duke one in Coach kse Final
game at Cameron and Door. How about number three Baylor
as they tiptoe pass Iowa State seventy five to sixty eight.
James A Kin Joe scored twenty points and the Bears
have now clunched to share of the Big twelve title.
(29:01):
Number two Arizona, a team that Bernie is very high on.
They won the Pack twelve regular season title as they
stomp on Cal eight nine to sixty one. Also a
victory for Number six Kansas says they hang on and
it's number twenty one Texas seventy to sixty three. In overtime.
David McCormick had a sensational night twenty two points and
(29:21):
ten boards. Number seven Kentucky fly swatting Florida to sixty three.
The Wildcats have won four straight in Gainesville, and finally,
through three rounds of the PGA Tours Arnold Palmer Invitational,
Taylor Gooch and Billy Horschel share the lead through three
rounds seven under for both of them heading into Sunday's
(29:44):
final round from Orlando, Florida. Now, let's get it back
to our guy from Las Vegas, Nevada, Bernie Fratto. All right,
thanks so much, Brian, so a week from today, uh
at I believe, I want to believe it's round three
thirty this iffic time, six thirty Eastern. Theorbounts. Uh, you'll
have the selections show Sunday, March Madness, which in most
(30:08):
years has really been something that we you know, look
forward wait forwar with bated breath. I don't know why
I can't put my finger on exactly why we perhaps
haven't watched or talked about, or observed or been his
opinionated about college basketball this year with the same intensity
and the same angst and the same emotion that we've
(30:29):
had in past years. But I think that will flip
quickly when the when the brackets are are announced and
people start to fill out their brackets, it becomes a
very interactive and people will descend on Vegas here. Uh,
the you know for those amazing first four days at
first days incredible and so you know there's a lot
of pride. You will you you will see. Uh. It's
(30:52):
been commonplace where camera crews are ready at the various schools, uh,
and they celebrate when they get the bid and and
then of course when they find out there are number
one seed. You know, it's it's become a made for
TV show. By the way, not for nothing. This is
what the baseball owners envisioned they can do if they
have a bigger playoff, actually have a selection show. That's
(31:13):
a conversation for later tonight. But uh picture that because
it's a it's a model, it's a it's a format
that has worked very, very well. So it's not too
soon now to pop the time the question who are
the number one seeds? All right, I'm just gonna blurt
it out. I believe the number one seeds will be
in Zaga, Auburn, Arizona, in Kansas. Now I know I
(31:38):
just gave the top six. I don't have Kansas winning
at all. And as I just mentioned, remember in the
last nine years, out of thirty six potential top four,
thirty six top four seeds that could become potential final
four teams, only nine of the thirty six made it.
And uh, you know, only the only time all four
number one seeds got to the final four with two
(32:00):
I was mate, the only time in history. You know,
it's gonna be very hard, I think to move the
first three off the top line. I feel like Gonzaga, Auburn,
and Arizona are locked. But I find it interesting to
see the Kentucky was the number two seed in the
Kansas region when when the Basketball Committee last Saturday revealed
its top sixteen overall seeds. Given the fact that Kentucky
(32:22):
kicked Kansas has took us back at Allen at Kansas
at Allen Field House by eighteen points. That's why sometimes
these these things are so non scientific. Look, there's a
very good chance that could flip, and you can see
Kentucky's the number one seed. Baylor also in the mix
for a number one seed. I think the committee is concerned.
(32:44):
They can talk about blind resumes, but the Bears have
a lot of injury issues that could potentially rear their head.
That said, Baylor with everyone healthy, is a threat to repeat. Now,
mind you, I'm projecting and guessing four number one seeds,
not with the champion o b So, although had Baylor
and one of my top six teams that I believe
you can win it all, I don't have him in
(33:06):
the time in the final four. Kansas. I think it's
in the final four based on the region they projected being,
but I don't think they can win at all. Sorry
to piss you off Kansas fans. I'll wait, I'll wait
for your tweets. So this part of it's a guess
um who will be the number one one seeds. I
will just about guarantee you the three of those four
in locks to be number one seeds. Gonzaga Auburn in Arizona.
(33:30):
Arizona has been a phenomenal overachiever. I just know when
I don't know when. I know really saw this coming
to this degree at the beginning of the year. They
brought in Tommy Lloyd as their head coach last spring,
so I think Lloyd knows a thing or two about
winning because he spent twenty years as an assistant in Gonzaga.
So when you consider that he's come from a culture
(33:51):
in a program, he knows what that looks like. He
knows what that takes. But they're not the only surprise
overachiever this year, Providence. They've been at the top of
the Big East standings all season. Huge props Texas Tech,
even though they got upset. Chris Beard departs, but his
former assistant takes over, Mark Adams. He brings in a
(34:13):
bunch of transfers, but they haven't missed a beat. Texas
Tech is scrappy. And there's an old saying about Texas
Tech that they'll fight you when hell freeze is over,
and then they'll fight you in the ice. And that's
a culture that's been there for a while now. There's
been some teams that have been really big disappointments and
underachievers as well, not the least of which is Michigan.
(34:35):
I think they're the two biggest in North Carolina, and
North Carolina had a nice moral victory tonight going into
Duke and beating coach k and his final game. They
did it in style. I believe they went by thirteen.
And I saw the Wolverines play here in Las Vegas
in November in the Classic, and uh, I thought they
look pretty good. They were there were numbers six of
(34:56):
the nation. Then I was super impressed with Hunter Dickinson
his foot war because big man, he's it's his agility
as a big man and skill around the rim was
really impressive. And you know, and not only was Michigan
consensus top team, so it was North Carolina, but even
before Juwan Howard's meltdown, they were on the bubble. I
think they're showing us the last foreign right now. But
(35:16):
they're gonna have to win at least a couple of
games in the Big Ten tournament, I believe at least.
And for whatever reason, the tar Hills are only two
and seven and quad one games. Those are the toughest
games according to the n c a's net rankings, and
they were also ranked in the preseason. But again first
year coach Hubert Davis, they've really struggled, unlike Arizona, who
(35:38):
has flourished under their first year coach Tommy Lloyd. Wade
shakes out. Sometimes conference championships are gonna be a blast
this week. I think you can make a case. Uh.
I think I heard Brian Family talking about this on
Gotlie Show last week, and he's not wrong. Some of
these conference championship matchups and tournaments are in many ways
(35:58):
more exciting than the tournament. And here's why, because a
lot of those mid major teams know they have to
win to get in or they're done. When you're in
the tournament, you're in. And very few people really expect
a fift C to be to one. If you get
my drift, just getting there's the reward. So to get
that reward, you've got to go through this gauntlet known
as your conference tournament. Not so easy. The Mountain West
(36:20):
Tournament will be a great one. You've got San Diego State,
Boise State, WALM, and UNLV. Don't count them out. Uh,
this could be a four bid league and I wouldn't
be shocked if they got all four. And uh they've
got a you know, breakout player, David Roddy of Colorado State. Uh. Again,
you've got some of the lessern the West Coast Conference
tournament that's also here in Las Vegas. You know, you
(36:42):
get to see Gonzaga teed up against St. Mary's. And
then of course, you know the big boys in the
A c C and the Big Ten, those those are
blood bass. But some of those smaller conference tournaments are
very entertaining and very exciting. And there's those are the
teams that have gotten are those are the conferences that
have gotten us the you know, the valpos and the
(37:03):
Butlers and some of the upstart teams that have made
a run uh in past years. So hopefully we see
that again this year. But again, the moral of the
story is the conference tournaments who will commence this week
are often more exciting than the big dance itself. Not
to say that the Big Dance isn't. But the conference
(37:25):
tournaments are a lot of fun to watch. And you
talk about all kinds of basketball coming at you like
you're drinking through a fire hose. Yeah, all that and more.
All right, coming up. You know him, you love him,
you can't live without him. What a segue. He's gonna
take a look at some of the conference tournament finals
and he's got a fifty seven percent trend going back
fifteen years. The best research in the business. Macin on
(37:48):
Sports with Mackenzie Rivers. I'm Bernie Fritto or company line
from the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios is the
pregame show you always wanted. So don't go away. You're
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(38:34):
Adoption of teens from foster care is a topic not
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I'm April Dinuity, host of the new podcast Navigating Adoption,
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slash podcast, or subscribe to Navigating Adoption presented by adopt
(38:57):
Us Kids, brought to you by the US depart and
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that could lead to adventure, and they see you. They're fearless. Guide.
Is this fascinating world? Find a forest near you and
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We're back on Straight at a Vegas, the pregame show
you always wanted on, Bernie Fadder, come you live from
(39:40):
the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio students. Before you go
any further, I want to thank my broadcast team back
in Los Angeles, Chris Perfette and Bryan Finley and Bull Benson,
and they'll be with me all the way through three
am Pacific, six am Eastern. At this time. Let's welcome
and a gentleman, you know, I mean Love and Candley
with Adam McK anti, Rivers macin on sports and Mackenzie
(40:02):
perfect segue. I was just talking about the college basketball
conference tournaments in a commenced this week. Yes, the Shamrocks
shakes back at McDonald's. You know what that means. It's
March and it's college basketball season. Now. There's an effective
betting strategy for the last fifteen years, last sixteen years,
since two thousand five. If all you did was look
(40:25):
at neutral site conference finals games and bet under, you've
been catching fifty seven percent of the time. Rationale. The
lot of these kids have never played in in the
finals game of any sort in the college basketball ranks
are higher, and you have a neutral site, so the
the atmosphere can be uh can be tight, it can
(40:45):
be conservative, and these teams tend to walk the ball
up the court again fifty seven percent the last fifteen years.
If all you did was bet under a neutral site
finals games, however, the market is very candy. The market
a just if you just did if you did that
same strategy the last three years two thousand eighteen on,
I'm sorry, you're actually losing slightly more than if you
(41:08):
bet the closing number. You bet the closing total. The
market has already moved, and you're you're getting moreovers and unders.
The system doesn't work. However, if you look at from
the open to close, these totals on average move three
points per game. Opens at one fifty closes on average.
So what does this tell me? Tells me that bookmakers
(41:29):
aren't really aren't really keen to this. They don't really care.
They look at their totals, they have their algorithms, and
they just they just play it. The betters are the
sharp ones. The betters have called onto this, and that's why,
on average, you look at a conference final game tomorrow,
Liola Chicago versus Drake line hasn't come out yet. Bold
prediction that line is going to close on average, if
history is any indicator, three points lower than when it opens.
(41:52):
Let me ask you a question, why do you suppose
that that trend is so prevalent just because I mean,
I know, defenses are tighter the first five minutes of
the game. Can there's emotions and jitters and stuff, and
when you know it's for all the marbles that changes
the data and but of everything, But is there is
there an angle mccantie that leads you to that conclusion.
(42:13):
It's not a conclusion, you got the data, but is
there an angle that you think is the catalyst behind
why that's the case. It's it's perplexing because it's it's uh,
it's so consistent over so long, you would think that
that the totals would eventually just have part of their
system making the adjustment. I find it interesting that it's
neutral sites, particularly where you're getting fans from both sides,
(42:38):
You're getting uh kind of maybe that creates a more
tense environment. However, like you said, I don't really need
to know more than there's been four hundred conference finals
games and a hundred seventy one overs two unders. That
doesn't tell me I'm gonna go out and bet it blindly.
I'm just saying, if you're betting a conference final total,
(43:00):
you should be aware of this trend, if anything, because
let's say you like the over, you have your own model,
and you think these teams aren't gonna be that conservative,
these teams are going to run and gun. Well, if
you have this data, even if you disagree with this conclusion,
even if you want to bet and over in one
of these games that historically has been an under game,
well then wait, there's always two sides of the coin.
You can wait. You can see on average these totals
(43:22):
are moving three points. You know, there's good arguments on
every side of a bet, but you always do better
if you get the best number. So wait, Philip drops
on average three points, and then bet the over if
you like over in Layola, Chicago, Drake Tomorrow. So is
there any particular conference you find this is more prevalent in, like,
for instance, the Big Ten, where defense is always first.
(43:46):
It was it was interesting last year seven and one
in Power six, Power six games went to the over,
but that the tent, so it wasn't very consistent in
the in the big conferences, but in the smaller conferences
we kept up in saw more under than overs. I'll
tell you one quick trend that's really strong, because I've
covered the uh Mount West Conference here every year since
(44:08):
twenty twelve, is that if you bet the underdog in
the championship game, it's amazing how they come through. It's
especially if there it's the number two versus the number one.
You take the number two. Final thoughts on this subject matter,
and you do have a best bet. Yes, I have
a bet. Liola Chicago Verse Strake is gonna go under. Alright,
(44:29):
great stuff, Mackenzie. We'll have you back in an hour,
and uh more good stuff throughout the evening. That's backing
on Sports with Mackenzie Rivers coming up. I take a
deep dive, and I mean a deep dive into the
Major League Baseball lock out? Why was there no deal?
What happened? How far apart are they? What needs to
happen next? What will happen next? Keep it locked right here?
Wake two kids and learn the neighbors. Grandpa put on
(44:52):
pants up next, I'm Bernie Fratto. We continue with Fox
Sports Sunday. Tired of that old tattoo, Get it removed.
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Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and
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draft really? Giraffe d draft? You're not gonna get it
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Visits n h t s A dot gov. Slash the
Right Seat brought to you by the National Highway Traffic
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The deep sea is closer than you think. At Monterey
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(00:22):
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dot org. The more we learn about COVID nineteen, the
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(00:44):
dot org. Today. Hmm okay recording. You have a story
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Meet Anchor. It's a powerful app that lets you record
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(01:05):
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That's anchor dot FM slash get started great. I think
we got it. We don't want This is straight out
of a Gas with the voice of bigas your host
r JA, that men's man. You are now about to
(01:29):
witness the strength of street knowledge lie from the Vegas Strip,
the pregame show America has always wanted. Here's Bernie Freddoh
you know, I said it many times. We don't have
royalty in this country. Are athletes there are royalty And uh,
I can just simply say this that with March Madness
(01:53):
around the corner and the NBA playoffs, maybe Major League
Baseball and the NFL Draft, there's always just stuff. There's
just always so much to look for. Um So, at
any rate, I've said many times before, the sports are
the greatest reality show invented. You can script everything but
the outcome, and that's why this time of year is
(02:13):
so much fun. On that note, I'm Bernie Fratiwa Company
live from the Lawns, Vegas, Fox Sports Radio Studios, and tonight,
in the first hour, We're going to devote most of
the first hour department, every donency department to March Mann.
It says yes, believe it or not. Selection Sunday is
just one week away, and and is it really a
wide open tournament like everybody says, well, I'm not so sure.
(02:36):
In fact, I've identified what I would call a six
pack of teams who can win at all. And that
means when six in a row, single elimination, win or
go home, those are games that are not for the
faint of heart. There are only six teams I think
that can do that this year, and I will list
them for you now. I've done a similar exercise, uh
(02:57):
the last four years in a row, last five years
in a row, and I was right four the five
The one time I was wrong was the year Virginia
snucketting with Tony Bennett and they won the national championship
after losing to Maryland Baltimore County. Uh, the first time
a one seed and ever lost the six d t
here before. So we'll see, Okay, about fifteen minutes. By
(03:21):
the way, I get some tips on how to fill
out your bracket from a Vegas perspective with some common sense,
proven methodologies. After Brian Families update, will project we believe
will end up being the four number one seeds when
everything is rolled out next Sunday and of course, we
wrap up the show with macin on sports, bringing the
only kind of data you can find um on. I
(03:45):
think this network in all seriousness, Sports are entertainment, but
they're more than that. They are shared experiences such people
want to talk about them. You've come to the right place.
We've got a lot to talk about tonight. This is
straight out of a gets the pregame show you always wanted.
As they say in Prince Rogers, Nelson, Minnesota, it's gonna
be lit by the way, in about an hour mark
(04:08):
your clock. About an hour from now. I'm gonna go
into great depth, great detail on this saga called the
Major League Baseball lockout, Why they couldn't get a deal,
what actually happened, how far a part they are, what
happens next? And uh, and give you some some thoughts
in perspective, Uh, in a little bit more granular way
(04:30):
that I don't think it's being reported. So wake the kids,
alert the neighbors, Grandpa, put on pants. Uh, We're gonna
talk some baseball from the standpoint of people want answers,
are angry all the time. People are reaching out to
me on Twitter asking what my thoughts are. And I'm
happy he gave him. I've been giving daily updates as
long as they're is real news. So save that because
(04:53):
I do have real news. All right, let's go to
my pick six my six pick six pack, whatever you
wanna call it. Obviously the usual suspects. You start with Gonzaga. Look,
what really caught my eye about Gonzaga was that there
Ken palms adjusted efficiency range margin and the number two
Arizona's were the larger gap than between Arizona and U C.
(05:17):
L A, which was number ten at the time I
did my research. So there's a gap there, and and
in how truly talented um Gonzaga really is. Okay, And
I know they just got upset recently and everything okay,
But the biggest differentiator with this Gonzaga team compared to
last year's defense, particularly on the interior, and you bring
(05:39):
in that long, lanky, seven ft two ninety pound chat
hole Groom, Well, he does have pretty good rim protecting ability,
and he's changed the game for teams to try to
attack the basket against his eggs because now the eggs
right third in the country per Ken Palm and two
point field goal percentage defense. So when you look at
(05:59):
the on off numbers that truly illustrate Homegren's impact when
he is on the floor, teams shoot about at the
rim and compared to fifty when Chad Holbrun is not
in the game. Uh So, Gonzaga very easily makes my
top six list. I think they doing it all this year.
(06:21):
Uh The alone concern is how Gonzaga will deal with
teams with the lead athleticism. Last year, they looked a
little overwhelmed by Baylor in the National Championship game. However,
we'll never know how much that U c l A
game took out him forty hours before. Be that as
it may, gives huge props to Baylor, and the truth
of the matter is they did Gonzaga did look a
little overmatched athletically, all right? Or is the feeling was
(06:45):
a little bit similar in November when Duke took them
down in Las Vegas and I believe they lost at home?
Did they lose at home to Alabama? One of those schools?
So look, they can be had. It's just they're one
of my six teams. Number two Auburn. There's no doubt
that Aubred has elite personnel that starts with arguably the
best front court pairing in the sport and Walker Kessler
(07:07):
and Jabari Smith. They play a modern game. Okay, it's
as good a due as you could possibly ask for
as a coach. Kessler has elite length. He also can
protect the rim. He's got great instincts around the rim,
and that's totally transformed Bruce Pearl's defense. He's also a
great lob catcher on offense and occasionally, but it has
(07:30):
stretched the defense from deep right. Then you've got you
Barie Smith, He's he's not only a good shooter, he's
a generationally good shooter. He's capable of elevating any over
anybody thinks to his height. Plus he's got long arms
and a high release points. See, that's the kind of
athleticism that could really put a scare into Gonzaga. Now,
(07:51):
Bruce Pearl he had Again, these are his two studs,
Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith, but they're not the only players.
As a matter of fact, Authorn has a deep rough
or a very athletic competitive players who can not only
handle the ball, they can defend. And I think Paccord
plays very important in the tournament. Katie Johnson is is
(08:11):
a guy who plays with great emotion, uh and and
I think Bruce Pearl has done a good job in
getting him the channel's energy and make it a positive.
But he plays downhill. He's relentless, he can go on
terrorists from from behind the yark And while mostly teams
have at least one great point guard, again, Pearl has
a pair that not only complement each other. Then you've
(08:34):
got a guy's up Jasper who is a great game
manager manager, and right on down the line, Gonzaga is
a team that is athletic and dynamic and scary. If
they don't play bone headed ball, they're gonna be a
very very very very very tough out. As I mention
with Arnie in uh and Jason Martin about an hour ago,
(08:57):
I really like Arizona. I haven't filled up my bracket
yet and it's not official prediction, but if you put
a gun to my head right now, I think Arizona
is gonna win it all. They're that good. You have
three seven footers and they can shoot threes like nobody's businessman.
And you know, an anonymous coach who played the Wildcats
(09:17):
earlier in the season basically said Arizona this is a
hell of a compliment. Quote, Arizona plays with the exces
and those of Gonzaga and the talent of Duker Kentucky.
I don't know if it gets any better than that, um,
you know, and I think if you watch them that
that that's true. They Arizona can flapping down the court,
(09:39):
they can crush you on the offensive glast, they can
dominate the paint. Christian Colocal is just an amazing presence
around the rim and a great rim protector. Plus you've
got a future NBA lottery picked and Benedict I think
would be Thurn in Thurn and I can't ever pronounce
his name right, who can be again another very explosive
score when he's when he's on a roll, when he's
(10:01):
when he's you know, on his game. These are the
reasons why the Wildcats, if you've watched any of their games,
they go through stretches, they look completely unbeatable. They look
as unbeatable as those you know, early two thousand's Kentucky
teams or nineties Duke teams or eighties whatever the UNLV team.
(10:22):
You know, there was a game at Washington, uh while
back Arizona. UM. They fell behind to eleven to start
the game and then they oh nothing, they regroup, called
time out. They're going to two four run, They're going
on thirteen two run, and then they took control. Then
by the middle of the second half they led by eight.
(10:44):
So it's down by fourteen, the lead by twenty. It's
a forty point turnaround. It's a freaking forty point team.
How does that happen? The only thing that concerns that
would be concerning with the Wildcats is the volatility of
their point guard, Cure Carissa. He's again an emotional player.
He's been very solid in his position, but at other
(11:06):
times he'll go through stretches where he'll temporarily shoot Arizona
out of the game. How do the Arizona is ever
out of the game. He had an over twelve performance
against U Cilley in January and it was sort of
a glaring example of that. Uh, he didn't play well
when when the Arizona lost to Tennessee. But I think, uh,
(11:27):
he's good enough if he brings his a game to
finish the job. Now, unlike Auburn, they don't have the
depth there at point guard, but they have plenty of
everything else. Kentucky, when you know what John Calipari never
count the old knuckle head out. What stands out most
to me again another Wildcats. Just pick Wildcats right Arizona Wildcats,
Kentucky welt Cats right now, they have what I believe
(11:50):
very good role allocation. Kentucky has been really, really impressive
since mid December and they have, you know, just three
losses in then stretch, all on the road against top
twenty Ken Palm teams. All three games. One of Kentucky's
top cards missed a significant portion due to injury. And look,
I would just say this, I can start naming all
(12:12):
their players, you know, oscars A Shave and Wheeler and
ty Ty Washington Jr. Again, they're all dynamic, athletic, highlight
real guys when they got the ball in their hands.
But they're steady players too, and they play within the
framework of of John Calipari's system. Now, they're not quite
as prolific on the boards as some of the other
teams I just mentioned, which means more time to set
(12:34):
their defense on one end and more opportunities to leak
out and push transition on the other. So they play
their way and they they're they're sort of beholding to
their way and given how good wheelers in the open court,
good luck stopping Kentucky. Once they get out and start
to fill their lanes. They they they've got I would
say Kentucky of every team I mentioned, has the best talent,
(12:54):
but best combination of talent and cohesion, and that's why
they're gonna be scary. Alright. Baylor, they start out fifteen
and oh and then they have a couple of home
losses and it's been a bit of a weird year.
They're defending national champions stuff for teams to repeat, teams
just don't repeat anymore. But if anybody can do what
they can, they're among the top contenders. I think, you know,
(13:17):
they're one of six teams that can cut down the nets.
To me, it starts with point guard players. I said earlier.
So many of the best teams in the sport this
season don't have a high level, you know, lead guard.
The Bears they've got one, obviously in James A. Ken Joe,
and again he's got to stay healthy because he's as
good as anybody could hold for. He transferred in from Arizona.
(13:38):
A great kid for Scott Drew. He replaced Davan Mitchell
and Jared Butler. Literally he did it himself. Now, I
can't really say he's an NBA prospect, which is ironic,
but he gives Baylor's offense a level of of real,
you know, fluidity and shot creation that some other teams lack.
(14:01):
And when you add in the fact a little crier
and Adam Flagler, they can fill it up there right
next to him. The Bears have a terrific backcourt. They
can win it all in March. Now, again, Baylor is
longer and more athletic than it was athletic and it
was last season. Now that's due to the additions of
a couple of freshmen, Kendell Brown and Jeremy Schen. They
(14:23):
will will most likely be a first round picks. So
look out, you know, Baylor. Here we go. Now. Duke
lost their final home game tonight. I'm sorry if you
paid for a ticket to get into Cameron Indoor, or
you're one of the people that paid fifteen thousand, that
doesn't mean Duke won't finish the job in March. Um
in April. Uh. Their ceiling is again it sounds like
(14:49):
it's history onics. Their ceiling is the highest in the
sport because at its best, Duke has four players on
the floor who can initiate ball screens and guard multiple
positions on the defensive end anytime they want that kind
of flexibility and their size and their athleticism, their tent level,
they can overwhelm teams. Now, they didn't tonight, but you
know North Carolina, these things happen in that rivalry. They
(15:10):
do have a pro level score in Paula Benchero. He
can say he's capable of carrying a team down the stretch.
And his fellow freshman Al Griffin has emerged as a
as a potent second option um. And you know, there
have been times this season where it fell like Duke
was on cruise control, maybe because the we the a
(15:31):
SEC is really down this year in my opinion, and
I think that the Devils have gone into lapses. They've
gone on a walk about. I'm not saying tonight was
one of them, but Duke Duke is really versatile. The
switch ability of their wings, they make it very hard
to exploit, exploit any mismatches. And even though they're really
still a relatively young team, they're they're remarkably good at
defending and they don't commit a lot of fouls, and
(15:53):
they pretty much discipline that way, and that's a trait
that's usually transfers in well in March. Plus, all right,
let's face it helps to have a coach who's been
in a million final fours and national games before and
this is its final year. And I know that that
doesn't guarantee anything, but I remember Al McGuire in nineteen
seventy seven, the late great Al McGuire we want to
(16:14):
become a phenomenal announcer, was head coach of the Marquette
then Warriors nineteen seventy seven entered the tournament and announced
at the beginning of the tournament a press conference this
would be his last season. Somebody elled out, you're kind
of wiley. Is this a ploy for you to get
the most out of your team so you can win
the championship? He says, come on, man, We're not gonna
(16:35):
win the championship this year, not with teams like North
Carolina in here. I hope we just become a you know,
a cockroach in a play. This beagin is who we
can fall in and mess it up for everybody else. Well,
guess what. In nineteen seventy seven, Al McGuire and the
mccartte Warriors caught fire and they won the whole darn thing.
Could that happen with Duke? He could? There's my six
(16:57):
Uh someone mentioned, uh, do I think Villanova? I might
get to that later, right, you know I really like
g Right, I would never connot Villanova. Again, this is
based on who do I trust to win six in
a row if it was a one game affair. Villanova
could be any one of these teams. Well, I don't
know if they can win six in a row, so
they can't quite make my list. So you have to
(17:18):
call me out. Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona, Duke, UM, Kentucky, and Baylor.
Those are my six pack, six of teams I think
can win it. Also, who who will be? Who will be? Uh?
The potential I'll tell you what. Let's save that for later.
(17:40):
I'm gonna say the potential one seats for later. Not
I'll give you my pick six. Let's talk about some
tips for filling out your bracket, and we'll get to
that in just a second. I want to remind you
that this April through Vegas will be hosting the two Draft,
an event that will be unlike any other with unparallel
(18:02):
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(18:47):
Sports radio dot com to win a trip to Vegas
during Draft weekend coming up, Get your pens and pencils out.
Give some tips from a Vegas perspective how to fill
out your bracket. All right, Bernie Fretto Company Line from
Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios. This is the pregame
show you always wanted, So don't go away. You're listening
(19:08):
to straight out of Vegas, the Great Bernie Fratto. Folks.
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(21:14):
Well we're back on straight out of Vegas, the pregame
show you always wanted. I'm Bernie Fadder Company Life in
the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio studios. Before I get
to the tips and filling out your back and real
quickly and respond to the Twitter at mL times. Regarding Villanova,
there is real value on Villanova because you can get
him now to one and anytime you've got j right
(21:35):
on the sidelines, you're gonna have a team that plays smart,
plays hard, and gets better as the season goes on,
which they have and actually there are numbers on the
computer are good. Their offensive efficiency is forth in the country,
through defense efficiency is and they're also very experienced. They
have three seniors that start. However, my concern is that
(21:59):
they lack rim protection, great rim protection, and I'm not
so sure how much depth they have, and so if
you get into file trouble, that's gonna be an issue.
Bench production is not how you win titles, but you
never know. With Villanova, h never would never kind of mint.
They just can't make my top six, but one you
can hedge back and uh and and get yourself some
(22:20):
profits at any rate. Let's get to the tips for
filling out your back. And first of all, first and
foremost most I don't know circumstances. Should you pick all
four number one seeds to reach the final four. It's
tempting you look at them, but it's only happened once,
and that was back in two thousand and eight, And
in the nine years since, just twelve number one seeds
(22:42):
have reached the final four. Do the math. So the
thirty six number one seeds in the last nine years,
only twelve and even reached the final four. So I
would tell you, uh that if you pick all four
number one seed needs to make the final four, you're
bucking history very much. However, do pick a number one
(23:06):
seed to win at all? Because most likely history shows
us there's about an eight percent chance if you go
back to two thousand ten, this iteration of the tournament,
that if that a number one seeds gonna win at
all eight of the last eleven and see a tournament
champions were number one seeds, obviously including Baylor last year.
History says this year should have another number one seed
(23:29):
as well. Win it all. Find out where Gonzaga is.
Plug him into the Elite eight. They're a very good team.
They've got the longest active Sweet sixteen streak, They've appeared
in four of the last six Elite Eights, and they've
got the best team in college basketball this year. I
think on paper they also have a they'll They'll also
have a favorable eight nine matchup and two vulnerable teams
(23:52):
at the four five in the region. So while many
are not calling Gonzaga a lock to the Final four
as they have been in the past, they've got the
best odds to at least make the West Regional final.
If you're dead set on having this act get upset
before the final four, that would be the only round
that makes sense to happen. They're gonna get into the
(24:12):
Elite eight. I'd be shocked if they didn't. This is
where they live. Now everybody is gaga about analytics and metrics,
and I get it. I've always said, look, analytics, they're important.
There they told us what happened yesterday. There are a guideline,
not an inflexible anchor. When it comes to the tournament.
(24:34):
Focus more on matchups than metrics. See because metrics are
a very good way of comparing all three and fifty
seven teams against each other. And you know, you can
drive yourself nuts. You can become very complicated when you
start to compare two teams against each other because if
you understand all the nuances they're going to the general
metrics then fine, you want to live by the sword
(24:57):
and die by the sword. You want to take blake
snow out and cost your team the playoffs, no problem,
the Dodger bench was, You're happy with it. But the
general fans should be more focused on matchups. Here's why.
If two teams play similar styles, the better team is
at a huge advantage. Why Let's say one team plays
defense that dare's the other team to shoot threees. They
pack it in, but that team shoots them very well.
(25:20):
So all of a sudden, that advantage that the better
team thought they had is gone and the better team
will be shown there, the better team by the metrics,
But maybe they've got a small front court and the
underdog has a big front court that could potentially dominate
those individual matchups. Again, that should be a more appetizing
upset pick for you, and it should be a more
(25:41):
sound way for you to evaluate these games. So focus
on matchups. You'll see all the matchups. You can look
at their season records, who they played, how many points, discord,
et cetera. When in doubt, just take an extra minute
read up on those pesky mid majors because you'd be surprised.
The style that some of them play can create real trouble.
(26:03):
And you know you don't want to put all your
eggs in one basket. Remember Murray State three years ago
with John Morant. No one saw that coming. Finally, stars
do win the close games. There is a surviving, advanced
aspect of this. But over the you know, people want
to make that final highlight in in this with the
song playing in the in the background as the music
bad after the final nets are cut down on that
(26:25):
Monday night. Here's an old saying, Look, a star may
win you one game, but a team might win them all,
but the tournament has an obvious survive and advanced mentality
to it, So as you focus on individual matchups, you're
banking on a series of one on one of one
game playoffs. So you want the ball in the hand
of the Stars when it gets into crunch time and
(26:45):
heat gets out and starts to breed. If you're stuck
on a game and two, we think it's gonna come
down to the wire, again, look at the roster. Go
with a team that has the one or two players
you trust to make the plays when they're needed. Again,
teams win game as I get that, But the Stars
Windy's individual ones when they come up big, which is
why they became Stars in the first place. Coming up,
(27:10):
we'll get back to who I think will end up
being the number one seeds, but first let's go to
the summer Tongue Devil Brian family with the latest Thank
you So Much. Bernie Lebron James, maximizing his performance with
a fifty six point outing on Saturday Night for the Lakers,
says they stick it to the Warriors one to one sixteen.
(27:32):
The timber Wolves overwhelmed the Trailblazer is twenty one Karl
Anthony Towns multitasking with thirty six points along with fifteen rebounds.
Their Grizzlies continuing their dominant ways as they serve some
humility to the Magic. Memphis now second place in the
Western Conference and just by a little bit a half
(27:54):
game ahead of the Warriors, who have been struggling lately
and certainly after their most late latest loss to l
A the heat storm past the seventies six or eighty two,
Miami has won eleven out of their last thirteen games.
How about the Mavericks. They were down nineteen points, they
did not have Luka don Chich and they still found
away against the Kings, and it took everything to make
(28:17):
it happen one fourteen to one thirteen. Anare a nail
bier of a final. They're in college basketball number seventeen
u c l A. They get a home win against
their arrival, number sixteen USC, putting the Trojans in their
place seventy five to sixty eight. As the Ruins finished
second in the Pack twelve regular season, so the conference
(28:38):
is getting ready for their Pack twelve Turney North Carolina
on seats number four Duke one in Coach kse Final
game at Cameron and Door. How about number three Baylor
as they tiptoe pass Iowa State seventy five to sixty eight.
James A Kin Joe scored twenty points and the Bears
have now clunched to share of the Big twelve title.
(29:01):
Number two Arizona, a team that Bernie is very high on.
They won the Pack twelve regular season title as they
stomp on Cal eight nine to sixty one. Also a
victory for Number six Kansas says they hang on and
it's number twenty one Texas seventy to sixty three. In overtime.
David McCormick had a sensational night twenty two points and
(29:21):
ten boards. Number seven Kentucky fly swatting Florida to sixty three.
The Wildcats have won four straight in Gainesville, and finally,
through three rounds of the PGA Tours Arnold Palmer Invitational,
Taylor Gooch and Billy Horschel share the lead through three
rounds seven under for both of them heading into Sunday's
(29:44):
final round from Orlando, Florida. Now, let's get it back
to our guy from Las Vegas, Nevada, Bernie Fratto. All right,
thanks so much, Brian, so a week from today, uh
at I believe, I want to believe it's round three
thirty this iffic time, six thirty Eastern. Theorbounts. Uh, you'll
have the selections show Sunday, March Madness, which in most
(30:08):
years has really been something that we you know, look
forward wait forwar with bated breath. I don't know why
I can't put my finger on exactly why we perhaps
haven't watched or talked about, or observed or been his
opinionated about college basketball this year with the same intensity
and the same angst and the same emotion that we've
(30:29):
had in past years. But I think that will flip
quickly when the when the brackets are are announced and
people start to fill out their brackets, it becomes a
very interactive and people will descend on Vegas here. Uh,
the you know for those amazing first four days at
first days incredible and so you know there's a lot
of pride. You will you you will see. Uh. It's
(30:52):
been commonplace where camera crews are ready at the various schools, uh,
and they celebrate when they get the bid and and
then of course when they find out there are number
one seed. You know, it's it's become a made for
TV show. By the way, not for nothing. This is
what the baseball owners envisioned they can do if they
have a bigger playoff, actually have a selection show. That's
(31:13):
a conversation for later tonight. But uh picture that because
it's a it's a model, it's a it's a format
that has worked very, very well. So it's not too
soon now to pop the time the question who are
the number one seeds? All right, I'm just gonna blurt
it out. I believe the number one seeds will be
in Zaga, Auburn, Arizona, in Kansas. Now I know I
(31:38):
just gave the top six. I don't have Kansas winning
at all. And as I just mentioned, remember in the
last nine years, out of thirty six potential top four,
thirty six top four seeds that could become potential final
four teams, only nine of the thirty six made it.
And uh, you know, only the only time all four
number one seeds got to the final four with two
(32:00):
I was mate, the only time in history. You know,
it's gonna be very hard, I think to move the
first three off the top line. I feel like Gonzaga, Auburn,
and Arizona are locked. But I find it interesting to
see the Kentucky was the number two seed in the
Kansas region when when the Basketball Committee last Saturday revealed
its top sixteen overall seeds. Given the fact that Kentucky
(32:22):
kicked Kansas has took us back at Allen at Kansas
at Allen Field House by eighteen points. That's why sometimes
these these things are so non scientific. Look, there's a
very good chance that could flip, and you can see
Kentucky's the number one seed. Baylor also in the mix
for a number one seed. I think the committee is concerned.
(32:44):
They can talk about blind resumes, but the Bears have
a lot of injury issues that could potentially rear their head.
That said, Baylor with everyone healthy, is a threat to repeat. Now,
mind you, I'm projecting and guessing four number one seeds,
not with the champion o b So, although had Baylor
and one of my top six teams that I believe
you can win it all, I don't have him in
(33:06):
the time in the final four. Kansas. I think it's
in the final four based on the region they projected being,
but I don't think they can win at all. Sorry
to piss you off Kansas fans. I'll wait, I'll wait
for your tweets. So this part of it's a guess
um who will be the number one one seeds. I
will just about guarantee you the three of those four
in locks to be number one seeds. Gonzaga Auburn in Arizona.
(33:30):
Arizona has been a phenomenal overachiever. I just know when
I don't know when. I know really saw this coming
to this degree at the beginning of the year. They
brought in Tommy Lloyd as their head coach last spring,
so I think Lloyd knows a thing or two about
winning because he spent twenty years as an assistant in Gonzaga.
So when you consider that he's come from a culture
(33:51):
in a program, he knows what that looks like. He
knows what that takes. But they're not the only surprise
overachiever this year, Providence. They've been at the top of
the Big East standings all season. Huge props Texas Tech,
even though they got upset. Chris Beard departs, but his
former assistant takes over, Mark Adams. He brings in a
(34:13):
bunch of transfers, but they haven't missed a beat. Texas
Tech is scrappy. And there's an old saying about Texas
Tech that they'll fight you when hell freeze is over,
and then they'll fight you in the ice. And that's
a culture that's been there for a while now. There's
been some teams that have been really big disappointments and
underachievers as well, not the least of which is Michigan.
(34:35):
I think they're the two biggest in North Carolina, and
North Carolina had a nice moral victory tonight going into
Duke and beating coach k and his final game. They
did it in style. I believe they went by thirteen.
And I saw the Wolverines play here in Las Vegas
in November in the Classic, and uh, I thought they
look pretty good. They were there were numbers six of
(34:56):
the nation. Then I was super impressed with Hunter Dickinson
his foot war because big man, he's it's his agility
as a big man and skill around the rim was
really impressive. And you know, and not only was Michigan
consensus top team, so it was North Carolina, but even
before Juwan Howard's meltdown, they were on the bubble. I
think they're showing us the last foreign right now. But
(35:16):
they're gonna have to win at least a couple of
games in the Big Ten tournament, I believe at least.
And for whatever reason, the tar Hills are only two
and seven and quad one games. Those are the toughest
games according to the n c a's net rankings, and
they were also ranked in the preseason. But again first
year coach Hubert Davis, they've really struggled, unlike Arizona, who
(35:38):
has flourished under their first year coach Tommy Lloyd. Wade
shakes out. Sometimes conference championships are gonna be a blast
this week. I think you can make a case. Uh.
I think I heard Brian Family talking about this on
Gotlie Show last week, and he's not wrong. Some of
these conference championship matchups and tournaments are in many ways
(35:58):
more exciting than the tournament. And here's why, because a
lot of those mid major teams know they have to
win to get in or they're done. When you're in
the tournament, you're in. And very few people really expect
a fift C to be to one. If you get
my drift, just getting there's the reward. So to get
that reward, you've got to go through this gauntlet known
as your conference tournament. Not so easy. The Mountain West
(36:20):
Tournament will be a great one. You've got San Diego State,
Boise State, WALM, and UNLV. Don't count them out. Uh,
this could be a four bid league and I wouldn't
be shocked if they got all four. And uh they've
got a you know, breakout player, David Roddy of Colorado State. Uh. Again,
you've got some of the lessern the West Coast Conference
tournament that's also here in Las Vegas. You know, you
(36:42):
get to see Gonzaga teed up against St. Mary's. And
then of course, you know the big boys in the
A c C and the Big Ten, those those are
blood bass. But some of those smaller conference tournaments are
very entertaining and very exciting. And there's those are the
teams that have gotten are those are the conferences that
have gotten us the you know, the valpos and the
(37:03):
Butlers and some of the upstart teams that have made
a run uh in past years. So hopefully we see
that again this year. But again, the moral of the
story is the conference tournaments who will commence this week
are often more exciting than the big dance itself. Not
to say that the Big Dance isn't. But the conference
(37:25):
tournaments are a lot of fun to watch. And you
talk about all kinds of basketball coming at you like
you're drinking through a fire hose. Yeah, all that and more.
All right, coming up. You know him, you love him,
you can't live without him. What a segue. He's gonna
take a look at some of the conference tournament finals
and he's got a fifty seven percent trend going back
fifteen years. The best research in the business. Macin on
(37:48):
Sports with Mackenzie Rivers. I'm Bernie Fritto or company line
from the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios is the
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(38:57):
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We're back on Straight at a Vegas, the pregame show
you always wanted on, Bernie Fadder, come you live from
(39:40):
the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio students. Before you go
any further, I want to thank my broadcast team back
in Los Angeles, Chris Perfette and Bryan Finley and Bull Benson,
and they'll be with me all the way through three
am Pacific, six am Eastern. At this time. Let's welcome
and a gentleman, you know, I mean Love and Candley
with Adam McK anti, Rivers macin on sports and Mackenzie
(40:02):
perfect segue. I was just talking about the college basketball
conference tournaments in a commenced this week. Yes, the Shamrocks
shakes back at McDonald's. You know what that means. It's
March and it's college basketball season. Now. There's an effective
betting strategy for the last fifteen years, last sixteen years,
since two thousand five. If all you did was look
(40:25):
at neutral site conference finals games and bet under, you've
been catching fifty seven percent of the time. Rationale. The
lot of these kids have never played in in the
finals game of any sort in the college basketball ranks
are higher, and you have a neutral site, so the
the atmosphere can be uh can be tight, it can
(40:45):
be conservative, and these teams tend to walk the ball
up the court again fifty seven percent the last fifteen years.
If all you did was bet under a neutral site
finals games, however, the market is very candy. The market
a just if you just did if you did that
same strategy the last three years two thousand eighteen on,
I'm sorry, you're actually losing slightly more than if you
(41:08):
bet the closing number. You bet the closing total. The
market has already moved, and you're you're getting moreovers and unders.
The system doesn't work. However, if you look at from
the open to close, these totals on average move three
points per game. Opens at one fifty closes on average.
So what does this tell me? Tells me that bookmakers
(41:29):
aren't really aren't really keen to this. They don't really care.
They look at their totals, they have their algorithms, and
they just they just play it. The betters are the
sharp ones. The betters have called onto this, and that's why,
on average, you look at a conference final game tomorrow,
Liola Chicago versus Drake line hasn't come out yet. Bold
prediction that line is going to close on average, if
history is any indicator, three points lower than when it opens.
(41:52):
Let me ask you a question, why do you suppose
that that trend is so prevalent just because I mean,
I know, defenses are tighter the first five minutes of
the game. Can there's emotions and jitters and stuff, and
when you know it's for all the marbles that changes
the data and but of everything, But is there is
there an angle mccantie that leads you to that conclusion.
(42:13):
It's not a conclusion, you got the data, but is
there an angle that you think is the catalyst behind
why that's the case. It's it's perplexing because it's it's uh,
it's so consistent over so long, you would think that
that the totals would eventually just have part of their
system making the adjustment. I find it interesting that it's
neutral sites, particularly where you're getting fans from both sides,
(42:38):
You're getting uh kind of maybe that creates a more
tense environment. However, like you said, I don't really need
to know more than there's been four hundred conference finals
games and a hundred seventy one overs two unders. That
doesn't tell me I'm gonna go out and bet it blindly.
I'm just saying, if you're betting a conference final total,
(43:00):
you should be aware of this trend, if anything, because
let's say you like the over, you have your own model,
and you think these teams aren't gonna be that conservative,
these teams are going to run and gun. Well, if
you have this data, even if you disagree with this conclusion,
even if you want to bet and over in one
of these games that historically has been an under game,
well then wait, there's always two sides of the coin.
You can wait. You can see on average these totals
(43:22):
are moving three points. You know, there's good arguments on
every side of a bet, but you always do better
if you get the best number. So wait, Philip drops
on average three points, and then bet the over if
you like over in Layola, Chicago, Drake Tomorrow. So is
there any particular conference you find this is more prevalent in, like,
for instance, the Big Ten, where defense is always first.
(43:46):
It was it was interesting last year seven and one
in Power six, Power six games went to the over,
but that the tent, so it wasn't very consistent in
the in the big conferences, but in the smaller conferences
we kept up in saw more under than overs. I'll
tell you one quick trend that's really strong, because I've
covered the uh Mount West Conference here every year since
(44:08):
twenty twelve, is that if you bet the underdog in
the championship game, it's amazing how they come through. It's
especially if there it's the number two versus the number one.
You take the number two. Final thoughts on this subject matter,
and you do have a best bet. Yes, I have
a bet. Liola Chicago Verse Strake is gonna go under. Alright,
(44:29):
great stuff, Mackenzie. We'll have you back in an hour,
and uh more good stuff throughout the evening. That's backing
on Sports with Mackenzie Rivers coming up. I take a
deep dive, and I mean a deep dive into the
Major League Baseball lock out? Why was there no deal?
What happened? How far apart are they? What needs to
happen next? What will happen next? Keep it locked right here?
Wake two kids and learn the neighbors. Grandpa put on
(44:52):
pants up next, I'm Bernie Fratto. We continue with Fox
Sports Sunday. Tired of that old tattoo, Get it removed.
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near you and start exploring it. Discover the Forest dot Org.
Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and
the AD Council. Mama, what does the chicken say raft
draft really? Giraffe d draft? You're not gonna get it
(45:56):
all right. Just make sure you know the big stuff,
like making sure your kids are buckle care rectilely in
the right seat for their agent's eyes. Get it right.
Visits n h t s A dot gov. Slash the
Right Seat brought to you by the National Highway Traffic
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