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June 5, 2022 41 mins

Bernie Fratto previews Game 2 and the rest of the NBA Finals between the Warriors and Celtics, and is joined by Mark Medina of NBA.com to talk Finals and the association.

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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is straight out of a gas with the voice
of Biggest your host r J Bab play that to
me and his money. You are now about to witness
the strength of street knowledge live from the biggest strip
the pregame show America has always wanted. Here's Bernie Fretto. Well,

(00:24):
as I've said many many times before, sports are the
greatest reality show invented, and you can script everything, but
the outcome. Just asked the Golden State Warriors the other night,
and again there's an old Chinese proverb. May you live
in interesting times? We are where society infatuated with sports.
We go to games, watch him on TV, and obviously

(00:47):
we throw a few shekels. More than ever. People love
to bet on the games they love so much, and
there's a never ending supply of fodder that happens every week,
and we find a way to highlighted and in the
words of renowned Sage, the sagacious Rusty Harden, remember a

(01:08):
happy ending is not against the law. Too soon. On
that note, I'm Bernie Friederer coman you live from the
Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios. Tonight we focus on
the NBA Finals and the potential for what I think
can still be a historic series. We've got matchup analysis,
previews and what you need to know, and then about

(01:30):
fifteen minutes will be joined by NBA Guru Mark Medina,
who is actually joining us from the epicenter of the
NBA Finals. He was at Game one. He'll take us
behind the curtain. I've got some questions for him, and
we'll chop up some other NBA pertinent issues as well.
Along the way. We'll have some Vegas stuff and we'll
close the show with many new ways to bet the

(01:52):
outcome of the NBA Finals, plus an interesting trend involving
the public and the NBA Finals going back to two
thousand five, as far as the runa mill picking the winner,
and if you followed all that, you're a better man
than me. Sports re entertainment, but they're more than that.
There are shared experiences such well people want to talk
about them. If you come to the right place. We've

(02:13):
got a lot to talk about tonight. This is straight
out of Vegas, the pregame show you always wanted. And
as they say in jesseven, Tura, Minnesota, it's gonna be
let you know, there's a real irony, uh the other
night because the irony is Usually it's the Golden State
Warriors that murder people with her three point assassin proclivities,

(02:35):
but in this time it was the Boston Celtics. Boston
the I don't care what anybody says. The Celtics shocked people,
not only by winning Game one, but by how they
did it, forty to sixteen in the fourth quarter. They
gave the Warriors. They gave Steph Korea dose of their
own medicine. And now the serious price has gone from

(02:58):
Golden State minus one minus five to win the series
before Game one to now Boston depending on where your
shop minus one minus one heading into Game two. You know,
the Pistons beat the Lakers on the road in two
thousand four NBA Finals Game one, and this reminds me

(03:19):
of that. I'll get to that a little bit later.
But keep in mind, just because you win Game one
on the road in the NBA Finals, it's not a
guarantee you're gonna win the series. It's happened six times
since n and the teams who won three of Game
one only end up three and three. Pistons were the
last demon oh four to win Game one on the
road and go on to win the series. The Spurs

(03:41):
were the last. They beat the Heat on the road
in in Game one, but they end up losing the
series in seven games. Now here's what's interesting. I realized
that Boston's fourth quarter run was marked by a lot
of hot shooting, but also a lot of really swift
passing and small ball. What a concept. And I also

(04:02):
want to give Boston a lot of credit because much
has been made of the three pointers they made. But
how about their defense? Their ball pressure was something to behold.
Now here's what's interesting. That was the first ever NBA
Finals game at Chase Center, and it was supposed to
be a Golden State Warriors coronation. I mean, I thought

(04:22):
Draymond Green was very dismissive of the Celtics. I I
wasn't happy with this comments, quite honestly, and I know
it's against a lot of practice psychology with dital license,
but oh yeah, they just made a bunch of shots.
Well you only scored fourteen points in the fourth quarter
of Golden State, but we'll come back to that later. Right,
this is a situation where Golden State, and by the

(04:44):
if your Trey, if you're Clay Thompson, they missed two years,
two and a half years. This is your sixth straight
NBA Finals if you're Klay Thompson. So Golden State their
new arena, returning to the highest stratum of the basketball cosmos.
Instead Boston going this unprecedented round in the fourth quarter,
lights out shooting, epic ball movement. They come away with

(05:06):
a game one win, and that really kind of sucked
all the air out of the arena. It was a
crazy crowd. It was a highly energetic crowd. They're rabid
fans were loving their Warriors, and they went home sad. Now,
you know, Goal of State came out, played with pace,
they played with space. Curry was he was unstoppable, going

(05:28):
six or eight from behind the ark twenty one points
in the opening quarter. But fast forward to the second
half and typically you know the trick, you know, the
what are the what are the Warriors known for? They're
the best third quarter team in basketball and they you know,
they turned to two point halftime deficit into a fifteen
point lead with just a couple of minutes to go
heading into the fourth quarter. But when people think of

(05:52):
the Warriors and you probably think of three pointers. You know,
just Curry gets off the bus and Clay Thompson and
all the You know, when it comes to some of
the big great basketball marksman, not everybody wants to give
them their due. I give them their due because they've
they've been there and done that. They're not perfectly human.
But the irony is On Thursday, Boston used the Warriors
weapon against them. The Celtics not only scored outscored Golden

(06:16):
State forty to sixteen in the final quarter, they made
it much more overwhelming because they were nine of twelve
from behind the arc. They just rained down. Uh you know,
they say never rains in southern California a song by
Albert Hammond back in the day, and it ranged in
the Bay Area too well. It rained inside Chase Center.
It was all Boston. At one point, Boston made seven

(06:36):
consecutive three pointers, the last one by Al Horford, which
gave his team a six point lead, and all of
a sudden you could feel at that point Golden State
was teetering. There was a clear shift in momentum that
was undeniable. You could see doubt had been inserted, and
it was like, what in the hell is going on here?
Their turnaround was even all that much more remarkable when

(06:59):
you consider that Jason Tatum, who's Boston's leading scorer, who
just earned the Eastern Conference Finals m VP, what is
at the Larry Bird and VP Now, he was held
to twelve points for the entire game, three of seventeen shooting,
and in truth, give Golden State credit, he faced a
lot of very aggressive defensive looks throughout the entire night,

(07:21):
and at one point gold State even went into a
boxing one. However, Jason Tatum and his greatness, finds a
way to impact the game even if he's three for seventeen.
He had thirteen assists, and that really embodies when I
think is the greatness of this Celtics team led by
Emai and Dolka. This is a guy he manages to

(07:44):
make the right play, he trusts his teammates, he finds
a way to yield positive results. I'm talking about Jason Tatum,
which is why he's such a terrific player. You know
you're gonna be hearing from him, but that that's the narrative. Wow,
Boston did all this and Jayson Tatum didn't do anything. Well,
he did something. He was just three for seventeen. I

(08:04):
get that, but he you know, still has other ways
to impact the game. But let's step back and look
at this from thirty feet because Boston really employed a
small ball Golden State essential of past years. They took
a page from the Golden State book and played small
ball and that controlled the fourth quarter on both ends

(08:26):
of the floor, and Boston had a unit on the floor.
This was the Thews were the people that had on
the floor when they actually took the lead after being
down by twelve. That Al Horford center, Jason Tatum, Jalen Brown,
Derek White, and Peyton Pritchard. Less than three minutes after that,
all of a sudden, Boston had a six point advantage

(08:46):
and they were really playing, you know, Kevin Mooney in
a way that bothered him tremendously. And then so Steve,
it became a chess match. Uh, Steve Kirk comes back
the lineup of Jordan Pool, Curry, Draymond Green, Andrea Wiggins
and again Jordan Pool, which they've sputtered a little bit.

(09:07):
They looked, you know, not there. They haven't been consistent,
but when you go back and look what they did
against Denver in the first round, they look like instant offense.
You know, the greatest show on hardwood floor for such
a thing. But for whatever reason, Boston took away their
space and the gaping holes that I thought that you know,
Golden State played with in the first quarter, and Boston

(09:30):
has a way of furiously pressuring the ball. You have
to go back and watch it. Watch away from the ball,
watch the way they move away from the ball. And
Celtics have a lot of fight. They know how to
fight back because they've been doing it all year long.
And Emiadoca continues to preach resilience. The Warriors extended their
leading the fourth quarter in the third quarter, but Emaiandocas

(09:51):
message never changed. He basically said, look, we've been through
a lot, We've been through a lot of experiences, a
lot of losses. We know what it takes to win.
This is what Jalen Brown said after Game one. I
give credit to every guy in the locker room, from
top to bottom. We've got a great resilient group. And then,
of course, you know, you get a little cliche. The

(10:12):
chain is only as great as its weakest link. Okaye, Well,
fair enough, but what they're essentially saying is everybody contributes
in their own way. The oddest thing about the playoffs
from particularly the finals, is that as soon as as
soon as game one is in the books and the
final buzzer sounds and all of a suddenybody looks immediately
the game too, and which they should. So both teams
have had several days now to look at the film

(10:33):
make adjustments, and you know the complexion of Sunday's rematch,
I am predicting it will not look anything like what
the opener looked like. I think you're going to see
a lot of defense Sunday. But no, this Boston affirm
what they figured out over the last five months. They
have in their psyche and in their d NA what

(10:53):
it takes to be NBA champions. They haven't done that yet,
but make no mistake, they have a mindset. And there
are folks who would uh, I think you would agree.
There have been a few that referenced the fact that
Boston had had much tougher road to get to the

(11:16):
finals than Golden State. Did you've already forgotten? The Celtic
team a very resilient, tough, gritty team with plenty of talent.
They opened up against Katie and Brooklyn and Tommy fam
slapped him out of the arena, swept him in four.
Then Boston proceeds to beat the defending champs Janice and
the Bucks, and then they face a gritty Heat team

(11:40):
and they have to win a Game seven road game
on nothing. They already had one two other games in
Miami on the road, so this is their third road
win in Miami. By the way, not for nothing. Boston's
eight and two on the road in the Plaffs this year,
six and one in their last seven, and again they
won three in Miami. So winning a game on the
road you expected him to do at least one of

(12:02):
those at Golden State. You didn't know it would be
Game one coming up. We bringing a gentleman. I can't
think of anybody I'd rather talk to you, especially after
Game one. We've had forty eight hours to digest it.
Look ahead the game to Sunday, maybe even game three.
Is it heads back to Boston on Wednesday. Mark Mendina,
our NBA guru, he's covering the NBA Finals. He's there

(12:25):
in the belly of the beast up in San Francisco.
I hope I don't catch him with a mouthful of
sour dough bread. Mark will be great. Keep it locked.
I'm Bernie Fratto, You're coming to you live from the
Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios. This is the pregame
show you always wanted to. Don't go away, You're listening
to Straight out of Vegas, the Great Bernie Fratto. Folks,

(12:47):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox Sports
Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app
search f s R to listen live. Hey, what's up everybody?
It's me three time pro bowler La Barrington and I
couldn't be more excited to announce a new podcast called
Up on Game? What is Up on Game? You asked,

(13:09):
along with my fellow pro bowler t J. Hudgman's OTTA
and Super Bowl Champion. That's right, Plexico Birds. You can
only name a show with that type of talent on it.
Up on Game We're going to be sharing our real
life experiences loaded with teachable moments. Listen to Up on
Game with Me LaVar Arrington, t J. Hudgman's OTTA, and

(13:31):
Plexico Birds on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast,
or wherever you get your podcast from. Right back on
Straight at Vegas, the pregame show you always wanted on
Bernie Fredder come to your life in Las Vegas, Fox
Sports Radio Studios at this time. It's welcome and a gentleman.
NBA writer for NBA dot Com. He's been there, done that,

(13:54):
USA Today Warriors writer for the Mercury News cover the
Lakers are NBA. A gurgle here at Fox Sports Radio.
Say hello to Mark Madino. Mark, good to have you back,
burn It good to be back for shot. All right, Tel,
I know you're a busy man up there. I hope
I didn't catch you with a mouthful of sour dough
bread or anything. I know the true story. I was
clamoring to be able to check out in time to

(14:16):
join you guys. I'm glad. I'm glad you did pel.
Good to have you. Let's dive right in. Obviously much
has been made of Boston's three point barage in the
fourth quarter Thursday night, but I think Boston's ball pressure
and physical, you know, defense was a major factor. What
did you see in person? Yeah, I mean I think

(14:36):
I saw thought you had around the head. That wasn't
just them hitting a lot of shots and going on
a run. Their defense was amazing with just the way
they switch, you know, if you look at the numbers
with Steph Curry, you know, after he had twenty one points,
you pretty much tailed off the rest of the way.
And then you guys look at guys like Thompson he
shot six of fourteen, Draymond Green to a twelve, Jordan

(14:59):
pooled to a soun And I think that they were
just being very relentless with you know, trying to make
it difficult for basically everyone else besides Steph Curry to
make shots, and you know what, mission accomplished. But you know,
I think the Warriors, you know, they're not losing too
much composure over this because you know they've been through
so many finals runs. But they feel like there is

(15:19):
some low hanging fruit that they can rectify with just
how quite Draymond and Jordan were shooting the ball, as
well as tighten up their defense so that you know
they're not willing Al Horford and Derek White wide open threes.
But you know what, there's gonna be a tough seven game.
Serious I should be interesting they see. That's the way
I see it. And I gotta tell you, Mark, I
was a little put off by Draymond's dismissive comments in

(15:41):
the post game. I know it's against the law to
practice that chology without a license. I'm wondering if Golden
State actually took them lightly. I covered the four Pistons
when they beat the Lakers, and I truly believe the
Lakers took them lightly. But look, Mark Boston's already Tommy
fans Lap, Katie and the Brooklyn Nets. Then they beat
the defending champs, and they beat a greedy team in
my amy, including many three games on the road. Did

(16:03):
did ghoula stake perhaps take them lightly? I don't think so.
I do agree with your point that Draymond Green wasn't
correct in saying that they dominated the game for forty
two minutes. I mean, at that time they're trailed by two. Uh.
There were times where the Sellers are going on runs
even before that fourth quarter push. But I think where,

(16:26):
um where why? I don't think that they were just
playing down to the Celics was. I think a lot
of it just had to do with tactical mistakes. Look,
they weren't leaving Derek White and out Rford wide open
just because I just didn't play like feeling defense. They
were tapping into what has been a trend in the
past few NBA's finals or even playoffs, or sometimes your

(16:48):
best defense is no defense, meaning you allow a quote
unquote bad shooter to take bad shots because they want
to flood defenders on actually good scers. And that worked
on Jason Tatum. He only shot three of seventeen. The
problem is Jason Tatum then morphed into becoming a distributor.
You know, you look at some of the rotation questions here.

(17:12):
I mean, uh, Steph Curry played the entire first quarter,
which is fine, but then he sat out stretches in
the second and fourth quarter, and that's when the Celtics
went on the run. And I know that Steve Kerr
has a you know, bigger thought process during the regular season.
When he does that with Steph, the look, this is
the finals, right, Like, you don't play margin for air here. Um.

(17:34):
So I think that's where I think the predominant problems
were for the Warriors. But you know, look, if they
don't win this game, and I don't want to fall
into like it's a must win situation because it's a
best of seven series, but they don't win on Sunday
in Game two, it's going to be a serious, serious
hole that they would have to climb out of the
Wines series. I'm an agreement and its history is prologue

(17:57):
passes prologue. Warrior should win the only team to win
on the road twice Jordan's Bulls at Orlando back in Look,
Mark in the first half, by the way, we're talking
with Mark Medina or NBA Fox Sports Radio guru. Uh. Mark,
in the first half, you know, you saw the Warriors
played with paste, they played with space. They did pretty

(18:20):
much what they wanted even though they trailed by two,
and they took over in the third quarter. Uh. They
looked like it was going to be there night, but
then Boston got physical. As I mentioned, they you know,
they were really pressuring the ball and they came back
in one. What adjustments do you expect Steve Kurt to
make for Sunday Night. I think there's a few things.
Step Courage is gonna be playing more than thirty eight minutes,

(18:41):
so I would expect that they would extend his rotation
so that he's not on the bench in the second
fourth quarter. I think as of now, you know, the
Warriors want to give Jordan Pool a vote a confidence
because they need to have a third playmaker and scored
a compliment Stephan Clay. But if he if he replicates

(19:03):
what he showed in Game one, he's going to have
a much shorter leash. And then as far as defensively,
I don't think that they're gonna keep this philosophy of
really just trying to hone in on Jayson Tatum and
Jalen Brown allow other guys to do their thing. I
think that they're going to try to, you know, take
every assignment seriously, including their role players, because that's that's

(19:24):
ultimately what won the game for the Celtics with you know,
tapping into their depth. Um, those are the main three adjustments.
And again, like I know that the Celtics, they deserve
all the credit for plain physical grinding out doing all
those things, being resilient, but I don't think it was
one of these things where the Warriors were lacking lacking efforts.

(19:45):
So I think it's more of those tactical adjustments and
then we'll see if that's the difference, because usually if
the Warriors do there's things, it's an automatic w. But
the Celtics team is the real deal and they're in
the finals for a reason. Questions, are you now This
is the first time the Worries ever ever trailed in
a series this group. Much was made about the fact

(20:05):
that Gary Payton second was available. He didn't play any
he didn't see any game action. You expect him to play,
sending Yeah, I'm glad you brought that up. I think
that's gonna be another adjustment. Steve Kurse says that he's
playing on playing him in game two. He was actually
available and in the act of roster and game one,
but he said that he went against Gary painting this
second plane because he and the medical staff still had

(20:28):
some concerns about his readiness. From a conditioning standpoint, he's
been really good. Um, you know, he had an elbow injury,
so that didn't preclude him from being able to run.
You know, the the only injured body part was his elbow,
But where that was an issue was that it was
on his dominant arm, which was his left hand. So
he wasn't able to do a lot of ball handling

(20:49):
and shooting worked until recently this past week, and so
I think that we were concerns which is how ready
he was on that standpoint. But from Gary Hayton's end,
he feels like he's ready to go. So I would
expect that Steve would at least give him some spot minute.
So that could be, you know, another wrinkle because he's
a really good defender. Um, I'm sure it'll be a

(21:11):
little bit of minutes because it's his first game out.
But you know, the Worrist are going to have to
win on the defensive end, and so when you add
another guy that is capable of at least you know,
maybe maybe making things difficult or tiring for a star
player like Jason Tatum and jeral N Brown, those handful
possessions could wind up becoming a key factor in the game.

(21:33):
What's interesting is that that both Otto Porter and andre
Iguadala had missed time, but they actually contributed quite a
bit right right out of the gate coming back. One
thing I want to run by you, uh Mark. Much
has been made to the fact that the Warriors had
a hundred and twenty three Finals game cumulative experience with
their roster and the Celtics had none. I think that

(21:55):
can start to rear its head as you get deeper
into the series and one team try is to close
the other out. What are your thoughts, Yeah, I think
that that storyline was a little over in the sense
that it wasn't technically wrong, but it missed a lot
of context because when the Warriors do collective, we have
a lot of experience. They have a lot of young
players that have never been to the NBA finals, including

(22:16):
Jordan Pool, and you wonder to what extent of that
play affector in his struggles. And on the other side,
with the Celtics, yeah, they haven't been in the finals
since twenty ten. This is their first finals appearance with
all the guys on the roster, but they have a
lot of experience overall. I mean, they have been to
the Eastern Conference finals a number of years recently and
now they weren't able to get over that hump, but

(22:37):
that you know, experience taught him a lot about dealing
with failure and overcoming those moments of adversity. And then
you look up and down the roster. It's not a
young team. You know, Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown are young.
So it's Marcus smart, but they're in their prime. They
didn't just start entering the league. Then you have a
guy like Al Horford, I mean he's been the league forever,

(22:57):
so you know, I think when we're talking about inexperience
with the Celtics. It's missing a lot of that context.
So the only reason why I thought that that could
be a factor going in this series was more of
the idea that, um, you know, from a tactical standpoint,
the Warriors are used to doing certain things with their
championship corps and making certain adjustments. But I don't think

(23:20):
that there is ever going to be an issue of
people on the Celtics feeling overwhelmed or too emotional or
allowing the butterflies to get the best of them. They
they've they've had plenty of all these moments of versity,
and they're they're right to tackle. Was shown Mark, great
stuff is always enjoy your time up there. I hope
you get discomos for my money, the best Italian restaurant

(23:42):
in San Francisco. Okay, well I'll put on the Buccalist
all right, Budd, thanks so much. I know you're a
busy guy in high demand for good reason. Get some
good sleep and enjoy Sunday night. That was Mark Medina,
NBA guru for Fox Sports Radio, covering the series between
Golden State and Boston. We both agree, we think it's

(24:03):
gonna be a deep series coming up. Bringing back out
to Vegas, mackin on sports from the Knzie Rivers here,
bringing to data you don't get anywhere else. But first,
let's go to the man who offered. Reminds me, Bernie,
did you know that emaio doca spelled backwards is emio dooca.
Let's go with Brian's family with the latest. Thank you
so much, Bernie. I wish we had some NBA to

(24:24):
talk about, but on Saturday it was some NHL postseason
that was one of the headlines, and that would be
the Western Conference Finals where the Avalanche our winners against
the Oilers four to two in a Game three, and
now Colorado one went away from getting to the Stanley
Cup Final. They are up three games to none and
that best of seven series. As far as Major League Baseball,

(24:45):
the New York Mets went into Dodgers Stadium and ripped
the Dodgers nine to four. Walker Bueller in the ballgame,
gave up fiber and runs and just two and one
third innings of whiler you have, Bueller? Sorry, could Buddy
I hear you? Bernie? Well. Also, the Cardinals split a
double header with the Cubs seven to four and that

(25:08):
excuse me. They split a double header with the Cubs
and Game two was a seven to four win for St. Louis.
The Marlins takedown the Giants five to four. Hey Sus Sanchez.
He was hailed as the hero because he had the
RBI of via a sack fly in walkoff fashion bottom
of the ninth inning. The Padre shut out the Brewers
for to nothing. Jake Cronworth had a home run and

(25:31):
he also drove in a combined three RBI in this
ball game. The Royals humbling and silencing the Astro six
to nothing. Houston was held to five hits. The White
Sox hang on against the Raised three to two. Jake
Berger had that two run blast in the eighth to
put his team in front. The Yankees scolding the Tigers

(25:52):
three to nothing. Aaron Judge Homer's and its number twenty
one on this season. That is an MLB best. Billy
Horshell Lee eads the Memorial at the PGA Tour Stuff
in Dublin, Ohio this week. Through three rounds, he is
up by five strokes after a sixty five in his
third round on Saturday. Cameron Smith and Aaron Wise are

(26:14):
tied for second both at minus eight. Rofandal is going
to meet up with Casper Rout at Nana m Eastern
on Sunday for the French Open Final. And it was
on Saturday in Roland Garris in Paris, Orgon Siatec beat
Coco Golf the eighteen year old American in the Women's

(26:34):
French Open Final, Cocoa Doctors eighteen years old lost in
in two sets against the world number one. With that,
let's get back to man number one in Las Vegas.
It's Bernie Freddoh, thanks so much, Brian. All right, let's
bring it back out. Today's time for mckin on sports
with Mackenzie Rivers and Mackenzie. A lot of folks are
not as aware of the zigzag theory that has been

(26:57):
so prevalent in the NBA. Forever tell the folks what
it all means and apply the data so they can
understand why Golden State is a favorite. In Game two,
I'd like to change the name of this very well
talked about Vegas NBA playoff trend. I would like to
call it the zig Zag fact because it's been too long,
there's been too much data. It's just it would be

(27:18):
a leap of faith to not believe in the zigzag
at this point. So, if you're awful loss in your
home team in the NBA Playoffs, anytime you're awfu loss
game one or game two, three, four or five games
in the sample since two thousand three, you're fifty two
and a half percent against the spread, you're actually beating
the viig of fifty two point three eight. If you're
just betting any home team that came off a loss

(27:40):
ran that through my stats machine is about a twelve
percent chance that would happen if you were just flipping coins. Now,
let's go to game two because that's what we're excited
about tomorrow, Warriors minus four. If you're awful loss in
it's game one, you're sixty percent against the spread over
ninety games, is about a five percent chance that would
happen if you were just flipping coins. It's a real theory. Now,
why I'm gonna ask for your help with this, Bernie,

(28:01):
because there are several well established theories. I have my
own opinions, but basically it comes down to psychology of
the players, coaching adjustments, or I'm gonna put this nicely
other suspicious you know, NBA. You know, shenanigans have been
I'm not saying I believe it. I'm just saying that's
one of the theories. So why do you think this
has been such a strong effect, especially for home teams

(28:23):
road teams. It's it's it's not quite as extreme, But
especially for home teams, why do you think they always
seem to bounce back so strongly? Well, certainly nabled the
first to the psychological aspect of the NBA athletes, and
both teams are in the finals for a reason, and
there are going to be coaching adjustments. I think you'll see,
certainly McKenzie Golden State defend the perimeter much more aggressively tomorrow.
The other is, I think numbers and this is your department.

(28:46):
They they progress and regrets to the mean, do you
really think Boston will go on a seventeen oh run
against Sunday? Would they really make, you know, six three
pointers in a row in the fourth quarter. I don't
want to give Draymond Green any credit for what he said. However, however,
to the point being is you you brought up the
flipping the coin theory. This is really a nuanced context,

(29:07):
and I take I think you nailed at mackenzie. It's
a zig zag fact. If a team loses Game one
at home in the NBA Finals, they're probably gonna win
Game two. They may not car with the spread, but
they're gonna win and they're gonna cover the spread much
of the time for those three reasons. Coaching adjustments, psychology,
and of course, numbers progressing and regressing to the mean.

(29:29):
So you're throwing out the referees the whole other I'm
gonna throw that out. Oh no, no, I won't know
to take the floor on that. There is something to that,
all right. If this, if this series go and I'm
not a conspiracy theorist to neither you your numbers guy,
If this series goes the full seven games, the seventh
game will be two weeks from today. Well that's a

(29:49):
two week convention for the NBA. So are you gonna
get the hometown call? It's a referee who's human, gonna
be hesitant to make that call in front of eighteen
thousand people and gone everybody here. You know, with human beings,
I think you're onto something there. You can advance it
and take it where you want to go. Yeah, you
mentioned they're they're humans. And this effect that we see
in Game two's when you're a home team off a loss,

(30:10):
is way way more powerful in the first quarter and
in the first half. Why, I think that's when the
crowd is that it's loud as we saw this seen
the game three trend where home teams down oh two,
that's an even even stronger than sixty three. However, there's
a reason why they call Scott Foster the extender. It's
because these series like to go seven. The ratings have

(30:31):
been the best they've been since Real quick aside, Why
do you think that is? Like, these playoffs have been
a lot of blowouts, But is it the personalities? Is it? Uh?
That the fact that it's back on time, we're actually
playing the finals in June like it's supposed to be.
Why do you think these finals have been so watched? Well,
I think you've got some excellent matchups. You've got some
major markets in Boston and San Francisco, You've got star
power in both cities and Golden States become the kind

(30:54):
of team that's very polarizing. The people love to love
to hate him, or they love to love him. The
opposite of love is not hate, it's indifferent. Same with
the Celtics. There's plenty of Celtics haters out there, but
to your point, the playoffs have been solid throughout. There
have been some very good matchups. That that that game,
that first series of matching between Boston and Brooklyn that
brought a lot of eyes, the second matchup the defending

(31:15):
champs with the honest would they repeat, and then of
course Boston at Miami going seven. I think, yes, there
have been blowouts, but I think there have been storylines mackenzie,
and there have also been enough drama to get people's
intention it. To your point, we're back to the regular schedule.
We're not playing the NBA Finals in October or mid July. Yeah,

(31:36):
you got it, buddy. I was just watching Winning Time,
the HBO show and Game six, NBA Finals Classic game.
Any NBA historian, I wasn't in Philadelphia. Sorry, no, No,
I wasn't in Philly, but I was that I was Yeah,
full access, go ahead. That game was closed by the end. Yeah,
that game wasn't close by the one to one oh seven.

(31:57):
But there's a reason why they made a sixty an
episode just about that game because it was dramatic. I
don't think just because these margins have been big. Doesn't
mean we don't see drama. Like look at the last game.
There was a twenty four point turn around in the
fourth quarter. It ended up there was no shot at
the buzzer. But it was a pretty good game to
watch for a neutral. Well, you're honest, something strong there.

(32:17):
That game was tied at the half. That game six
magic jump center, forty two points, you know, twenty two
rebound six. He did everything. There was no jabbar way
to come back for a game seven in l A.
There was a lot of high drama and a lot
of star power in that game, Julius Serving. But to
your point, yes, the final was one oh seven. But
again to your point, that doesn't mean there was a

(32:40):
blow out at the end. We saw the finished product.
You saw a tight game and the Lakers pull away
at the end. All right, Mackenzie, you got the last word.
I think you got a best bet for something, and
I think the Celtics proved something in the fourth quarter
that is gonna change this series. And I like the
Celtics going forward, which I didn't coming in. Admittedly, However,
my best bet is the Warriors in the first quarter.

(33:00):
Talk about this six trend home teams off of loss.
In Game two, they're winning the first quarter by four
points despite the fact that the average line is only
five and a half, so they're getting most of their
Vegas expectations already in the first quarter. The Warriors are
famously a third quarter team. Their second best quarter, by
far is the first quarter. Why are they such a
good third quarter team Because Steve Kerr is a good coach, frankly,

(33:22):
and he's made adjustments. And after the Celtics completely shut
down the Warriors offense, he talked about Draymond Green. He
was not effective at all in offense, and nobody else
was besides Steph Curry. They're going to find a way
to alleviate that. So the Warriors adjustments early, catching the
Celtics off guard makes me think they're going to cover
the first quarter spread. That's my best bet, Warriors minus
one and a half in the first period. Alright, good stuff, McKenzie,

(33:44):
good analysis, and I we'll have you back next week
in the same slot. Good luck Sunday. Let's get it,
let's get one more winner for us. Come on, all right,
good stuff McKenzie. That's macking on sports. McKenzie rivers bringing
you the data you're not gonna find anywhere else. Coming up,
we wrap up the show and I want to talk
about the ever changing NBA Finals series odds, what they
were before Game one, what they are now, what you

(34:05):
could have got the Celtics app before the season, Historical
trends involving fiting the public. I know it sounds cliche.
And just because you won Game one on the road,
does that mean you're gonna win the series. I'll give
you some stats about that. You might be a little
bit surprised. I'm Bernie Frattower Company A live from the
Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios. This is the pregame
show you always wanted, So don't go away. You're listening

(34:28):
to straight out of Vegas. One of the best in
the business, Bernie Fratto. Fox Sports Radio has the best
sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our
shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com and within the
I Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live. Hey,
what's up everybody? It's me three time Pro Bowl Little Barrington,

(34:50):
and I couldn't be more excited to announce a new
podcast called Up on Game? What is Up on Game?
You asked along with my fellow pro bowler, t J.
Hudgman's Otta and Super Bowl champion. That's right, Plexico Birds.
You can only name a show with that type of
talent on it. Up on Game We're going to be
sharing our real life experiences loaded with teachable moments. Listen

(35:15):
to Up on Game with me lebar Arrington, t J. Hudgmans, Otta,
and Plexico Birds on the I Heart Radio app, Apple
Podcast or wherever you get your podcast from. We're back
on Straight out of Vegas, the pre game show you
always wanted. I'm Bernie Fratto coming to you alive from
the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios. We'll take you

(35:37):
up to three am Pacific six am Eastern along with
my savvy and capable crew. I want to thank the guys,
Welcome back, Bowl Benson and of course Chris Perfett and
Brian Finley on the updates. All right, what happens you
win Game one on the road in the NBA Playoffs?
Pretty good shape? Right? Well, just happened six times in

(35:59):
the last thirty three years. But in those six times,
the team who won Game one on the road actually
only one three of them, so they're three and three.
The Spurs did it in they beat the Heat on
the road game one, lost in seven. My Pistons the
team I covered in No. Four. They won Game one
in Los Angeles, but then went on to beat the

(36:19):
Lakers and five. Allen iverson seventy Sixers beat the Lakers
in Game one back and oh one, but lost to
the Lakers in five. The Houston Rockets had the audacity
to beat Magic and then they ended up winning game
and that was when Mike Jordan's Michael Jordan was gone.
Of course. UH the Bulls won in ninety three when

(36:39):
they beat the Suns in six games after winning game win,
but the Lakers with Magic. They lost UH to the
Bulls in five after beating the Bulls on the road
in Game one. That was Jordan's first championship. That was
one of those series where again experience. The Lakers had
a hundred and thirty five players with cumulative NBA Finals experienced,
the Bulls at zero, but they had Michael Jordan's that's

(37:03):
talked about in this series. The Celtics had zero NBA
Finals experience. The Warriors had a cumulative one under twenty
three games, but as Mark Badina pointed out, they've got
plenty of playoff experience, and they got d n A.
We're gonna see how this plays out as a series
goes on, because I think should Boston. Let's say they
take a three to lead and they're coming home, right,

(37:25):
all kinds of pressure to win at home in Boston
in Game six and not have to go back to
Golden State to win a Game seven if you let
them off the look, that's what happened against Miami. Boston.
They've been absolute road warriors this year, eight and two
on the road in the playoffs, very resilient, six and
old following a loss. Boston also six and one on
the road in their last seven and the one they

(37:48):
actually won three road games in Miami. But let's give
this some perspective. They lost to home games against Miami,
So I think this is going to be a long series.
I just do. Although Boston's fabulous and I give all
the reasons why I thought they'd beat Miami, I'm not
picking a winner in this series. I just believe it's
going to go seven. I'm not overreacting to Game one.

(38:10):
It's the only bet I've made so far. I'll will
place a bet tomorrow. I haven't yet most likely on
the under two fifteen and a half. I believe the
series will go seven games. From the prop bets, it
doesn't matter who wins, but if the series goes seven games,
you collect plus one seventy five. And this is one
of the favorite things for people to do. They're called
exact series result prop bets. If you like the Warriors

(38:33):
to win in seven plus three fifty, but if you
like it just to go seven plus one seventy five.
Now before the series started, before the season, you can
believe it. The Boston Celtics for fifty to one to
win the NBA Championship. One before the series, the series
price Golden State was minus one fifty Boston plus one thirty.

(38:54):
Now Boston comes out and again I give them a
top top credit for pressure in the ball on their defense,
holding Golden State to fourteen and the fourth quarter. I
don't know why Draymond Green is insistent on regaling us
with his wisdom. I couldn't care less, but he's gonna
be Draymond. And if you if the Golden State wears

(39:14):
win Sunday Night, which I expect him to do, it's
gonna be even worse. So let's let it play out.
By the way, a soft point better fifty grand fifty
kN the Celtics plus four in Game one, fifty kN
the Celtics to win the series plus one thirty five.
That values out to winning now right now, Boston's minus
one sixty five to win the series, meaning you have
to put him a hundred and sixty five to win
a hundred Golden State plus one forty. Again, remember Boston's

(39:37):
eight and two on the road in the playoffs, six
and one in the last seven. But it's going to
be a different game Sunday night. One of the things
that's interesting is you hear about the public fading the public,
betting on the public. A public game is defined as
any game whereby more than sixty percent of the tickets

(39:58):
are on one side. And if you've been fading the
public during the NBA Finals going back to two thousand
and five, the public is only eight and twelve in
the last twenty years. In NBA Finals Game one, obviously
the public had Golden State Game one, the books did
very well. If you just faded the public on all
finals games since two thousand five, you'd be fifty five

(40:22):
and thirty nine. That's a nice paid. That's over finals
teams are seven and fifteen when the public has bet
them six or more. In terms of the tickets on
the game, well, guess what if you're wondering, seventy percent
of the tickets are on Golden State. But that's minus
four or four and a half, depending on the line

(40:42):
you got. I know this flies in the face of
what I believe in the z exact. The Golden States
likely to win Sunday. That doesn't mean they're gonna win
by margin. It doesn't when they're gonna be win by
five if they win, if they win one o two
to ninety nine, the dogs catch that bet. So it's
interesting to watch. That's why I haven't fired on it.
I'm not a fish Better. I'm not one of those
people are gonna say, well, I think Golden State's gonna win,

(41:04):
but I don't think they're gonna cover the four. Now
you've become a fish Better. I'm not gonna do that.
I'm just giving you what past history has been and
passed this prologue. Golden State is likely to win this game,
and look, the public still right thtent of the time.
That doesn't mean they're not going to cover. It just
means this is what the history has been. By the
way Finals m v P. A lot of people still

(41:24):
like Steph Curry. Al Horford was one. He's not down
to sixteen one. This is going to be a fun series.
I expect a lot of adjustments. That's gonna do it
for straight out of Vegas. Obviously, at the top of
the hour, we flipped to Fox Sports Radio and man,
do we have a lot of talking on on the
show tonight. So keep it locked. I'm Bernie Fratto. This

(41:45):
is Fox Sports Sunday, Fox Sports Radio. Keep it locked
right here on Fox Sports Radio.

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