November 30, 2024 • 15 mins
Guest host Richard Syrett and author Jared Knott explore his research into seemingly minor events that led to major catastrophes in world history, like the collapse of the Roman Empire because of an unlocked gate, the inevitable sinking of the Titanic because of a design flaw, and if there is a common thread in these mistakes.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now here's a highlight from Coast to Coast AM on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Jared not is the author of the international bestseller Tiny Blunders,
Big Disasters thirty nine Tiny Mistakes That Change the World Forever,
and the brand new one, Tiny Blunders, Big Disasters Book two,
The Many Tiny Mistakes That Changed the World Forever. Jared
was a decorated combat infantry officer in Vietnam in the
(00:27):
first Air Cavalry Division. Jared, Welcome to Coast to Coast, AM.
How are you?
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Thank you very much, Richard. It's an honor to be here.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
It's a great concept for a book. How do you
even begin researching something like this or do they just
are there so many examples? It's more question of which
ones don't you want to include in the book.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Oh yes, it's amazing when you start digging into history,
how many goof ups there are out there. People don't
look at history that way. We kind of see history
as a series of large, ponderous events. This invasion happened
in such and such a date. This wark took place
between these months and these years, and so on and
so forth. But really, when you dig into it, it's
(01:08):
this history. History is more of a mosaic of a
lot of small, tiny events that compose those major events.
And with some of those tiny events are mistakes, and
some of them set off a domino effect that can
have a catastrophic results in the end. And that's what
I do with my two books, is to turn history
sideways and look at it from a unique perspective. And
(01:31):
it's amazing how many Smike's Chinese mistakes, small mistakes, bunders,
group ups have had horrible, horrible consequences of long term.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
I wish you taught history to me in high school.
I mean, we learn names, we learn dates, we name
we learn places and events, but don't we don't learn
about the human aspect to historical events.
Speaker 3 (01:59):
Yes, I sort of say people magazine approach to telling history.
Some people consider history to be kind of dull, and
it can't be if it's pulled the wrong way. But
when you look really kind of from the human perspective,
from the personalities involved, the weakness strengths of the individuals
making decisions, that gives it more of a personal perspective
(02:21):
that you can relate to better and makes it a
lot juicier, a lot more, a lot more fun to
delve into.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
All right, I want to dive right in with a
llallapalooza of a tiny blunder which led to well, it
doesn't get much bigger in terms of an historical event
than the collapse of the Roman Empire? Is it someone
inadvertently forgot to lock a gate and that led to
the collapse of the Roman Empire.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Yes, it was the you might have to call it
the vestige, the final vestige of the Roman Empire, which
was the giant fortress at Constantinople. And it was a
magnet deficitly designed fortress. It had like three different barricades,
three different walls, and then it had a moat around
it and it stood for over eleven hundred years. Have
(03:13):
been attacked a number of times, have been successful. There's
one brief period, but it was taken over for two years.
I think it was. Except for that, it stood attack
after attack hundreds of hundreds of years. So the two
or three events that were changing its ability to stand unchallenged,
and that was the development of cannon. I have begun
(03:34):
its toloy. It was fourteen fifty three and the cannons
had been developed. That was one factor. But then, yes,
coming to the tiny mistake. Someone forgot to close and
lock a gate on one of the main walls. And
Helen musksinoat a cute funny cartoon about two and a
half years ago and shows a soldier in bed with
(03:54):
his helmet on at night with a kind of a
bubble showing his thoughts, and it said, did I remember
locked that gate last night? And no he did not,
which allowed the enemy from the Ottoman Empire to get through.
It was one of the factors that led to the
fall of constantineble with again the last remnant of the
(04:16):
Roman Empire. It's a little more complicated than that that
the big cannons were a factor. And there was one
great big cannon like twenty seven feet long, a bronze cannon,
and which she was what they call a bombard, which
means that shot a great, big, giant rock as opposed
to a lead projectile. And it was a very effective
(04:38):
and battering down the walls. But it also it blew
up at one point and it killed the engineer who
designed it, plus the workers that were with him. So
effected for a while. But after a while, of course
that the backpart, so to speak, and it was very
extremely loud by the way as you might imagine, and
(04:59):
no have some of those cannons in museums are about
five hundred years old, which is kind of an interesting
development in itself. But yes, there was somebody who got
to close and lock the gate that led to the
fall of the Roman Empire.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Oh my gosh, that is so fascinating. How does that
come down to us in history? I mean, was the
night watchman keeping a log and he said, bill forgot
to close the gate.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
I don't know the Of course, the umpires had those
river bands they put around their fingers, so keep track
of the downs when we went two and three and
four and so on. Like I guess, somebody didn't have
a a sisto and he got distracted and they had
to go there back. It was just the wrong time.
But somehow that mistake took place, that tiny quote unquote
tiny mistake, which was pivotal in the fall of the
(05:46):
last fortress of the Roman Empire and after being in
existence for well over one thousand years. So it was
one of those in one of those human eras that
had horrible consequences.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
And is there a common threat you see connecting these
tiny mistakes is a human error is it over confidence,
maybe something deeper in our psyche.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
Well, there's a kind of you can say, is attention
to detail. You mentioned in the introduction the butterfly effect,
and that was actually developed by a gentleman, the doctor
Lorenz And he was a leading mathematician back in the
nineteen fifties, and he was dealing with a number back
then that had it was a number a decimale and
(06:29):
eighteen small numbers behind it. Of course, he was smaller
and smaller the further and further to the rights to advance.
And he was working with the computers of the day,
and it was taking a long long time. There was
a weather prediction, the type formula, and he was taking
a long time to finally run the full extent of
the required per formulation, which he was these little tiny numbers,
(06:51):
so some of these low ball six of them at
the end, and that won't make much difference, you know.
He just said, he's saved me a lot of time.
But he was amazed when he did analysis of how
those six numbers had a huge, huge multiplier effect at
the end. It's a little bit analogous to saying you're
starting off in San Francisco heading East, and you're going
to try to go to London. Okay, but your asthmauth,
(07:15):
your cousin, your compass reading is off just a degree
and a half or or two degrees or something like that. Well,
by the time you get to London, you're actually down
in Lisbon, or you're a north or something like that.
It's a progressive type thing. It shows up more and
more and more and more and more. But anyway, he
made a presentation back in the late nineteen fifties explaining that,
(07:37):
and he said that would mean in terms of whether
that's a butterfly we're flapping its wings down in Brazil,
that would set off a chain effect that could lead
to a cyclone in Texas a year and a half later.
And that was the birth of the concept of the
butterfly effect. And what we're doing course of the book
is we're looking at the butterfly effect in history. How
(07:58):
this whole tiny mistake multiplied into this next incident, multiplied, multiplied, domino, domino,
and then at the end of the progression, boom, here's
this horrible, horrible disaster.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Well, one of the most conspicuous examples of the butterfly
effect in human history and I'm going to go back
to your first volume, Tiny Blunders, Big Disasters, thirty nine
Tiny Mistakes to Change the World Forever. The Titanic. Yeah,
you know, the bottom of the ocean, two miles down
beneath the surface of the ocean, off the coast of
(08:32):
Nova Scotia. If it weren't a single key that someone
was supposed to hand off to somebody else, it may
may never have happened. Tell us about that.
Speaker 3 (08:42):
Yes, they were. I had one gentleman that was assigned
to be the second officer of the Titanic. But they
say last minute is to a day before the voyage
was to take place. It changed officers in some places.
In that exchange. The key to a locker was now
passed along, and inside that locker were what they call
(09:03):
it glasses or binoculars. And the people out there in
the crow's nest were used in binoculars, especially at night,
to look for icebergs. And there they were, they and
then they didn't have the key, They did not have
the glasses that they have the binoculars, and there they
were in the middle of the night, and they were
(09:23):
looking for icebergs just with the naked eye. But they
had the binoculars and one of the gentlemen that was there,
and of course they survived the sinking of the Titanic,
and there was a big investigation in New York as
to what the cause of the sinking was. And he
was saying that they had had the glasses several days before,
but they did not have the binoculars that particular night.
(09:43):
And they asked him what differences that have made to
what we've been able to see the Uh, it was
what they call it black iceberg. It was not a
white one. It was a little kind of a darker one.
And they said they've been able to see it much sooner.
How much of a difference that have made? Well, they're
given us, but it's ended in time to be able
to get out of the way. So they said that
if they had the binoculars and they've been able to
(10:04):
scan the horizon, they could have seen the iceberg. And
they called down there to the engine room. Uh, you know,
turned to port please so many degrees. But then they did,
but just another minute or two, maybe even a half
a minute, that would have made all the difference. The
iceberg scraped down the right side of the starboard side
(10:25):
of the ship and it split open UH the rivets
that were along a strip that This is another interesting thing,
is that they had the UH. It was divided into
several different compartments. And they called the Titanic unthinkable because
it could survive the flooding of any two of the
(10:45):
compartments and not sink. And they thought the worst disaster
anybody I could think I was a ship hitting it
right at the juncture of those two compartments and both
of them would flood, and they could survive that well.
But what happened was when they hit the iceberg, the
scraped it down the side and it opened up like
four of the compartments at one time, popping the rivets
up off all the way down. And so all four
(11:08):
compartments were sinking. And so they began to nose down
a little by little, and they saw what was happening,
and they realized that there was nothing much they could do,
and it was going to it was going to sink in.
And Captain Smith it was his name, may have survived
the initial sinking, and they said that he was. They
(11:30):
was swimming towards one of the lifeboats in the water,
and then as he got closed he turned around and
just swam away, according to one or two of the witnesses.
So maybe he said he didn't want to maybe wanted
to go down with the ship. And I don't have
to face the inquiry in New York or whatever, But
that's what happened. If somebody had passed the key along
that went tiny mistake, they would have had the binoculars,
(11:52):
they would seeing the iceberg, and the whole thing might
have been avoided.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
Wow, I'm just trying to let this akin. How much
of a world do you think fate or chance plays
in these worlds altering moments versus the idea that history
is simply the result of human decisions however small, Well, i'll.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
Leave that to the psychics that you interview. They might
have a better answer than I do. That it gets
into the metaphysics. And I don't doubt there's course the
whole question of human will or the decision being made
by the lord that the old quotation from Clint Eastwood,
(12:34):
A man must know his limitations, and that that's one,
and so I don't have the complete answer to so
I don't know that I do.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
Fair enough, Yeah, fair enough? Do you see parallels between
the tiny blunders that you cover, and moments in our
in our personal lives where let's say, minor decisions or
accidents conspiral into larger consequences.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
Oh sure, yes, of course, in everyday life, there's automobile accident,
somebody drops their keys, somebody drops their phone inside the
car that reached them to pick it up. They tragically
hit someone from the rear, they hit a pedestrian. There's
a many, many examples where tiny mistakes I remember done
in Pinsacola, Florida, where I lived for a number of years,
(13:22):
there was a captain who was pushing a barge to
underneath the bridge and he somehow made a mistake and
he hit the bridge and they disabled it. It was
like a year and a half for it to be
repaired where it could function normally again, so and so forth.
Where there's just a countless examples of automobile accidents, of
a plane in accidents, of the train accidents that leads
(13:46):
to their tragedy walls of life. So that happens at
that level, and then of course it also happened happens
a political level, where military mistakes of political mistakes have
horrible quant consequences for and epic proportions for an entire
nation and entire people. So yes, the tiny mistakes are
with us, and they are a major part of our life.
(14:06):
And one of the main things I'm doing in the
book is especially for young people, is to convey the
message that the devil is in the details. You need
to make sure that everything is just exactly right, that
settings are done correctly. I am preparing for operations and
preparing for airplane flights, et cetera. Cover navigational mistakes also
(14:28):
in the second book. So those little tiny mistakes, they
can destroy your life. They can cost the life your
life and the lives of many people around us. That's
one of the main messages in the book, the whole
section there and the importance of checklists. I won't explain
all the details right now, but in the operating room
that was a major program to major development in that
(14:51):
area as well.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
Listen to more Coast to Coast AM every weeknight at
one a m. Eastern and go to Coast to coastam
dot com for more Yah
Now here's a highlight from Coast to Coast AM on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Jared not is the author of the international bestseller Tiny Blunders,
Big Disasters thirty nine Tiny Mistakes That Change the World Forever,
and the brand new one, Tiny Blunders, Big Disasters Book two,
The Many Tiny Mistakes That Changed the World Forever. Jared
was a decorated combat infantry officer in Vietnam in the
(00:27):
first Air Cavalry Division. Jared, Welcome to Coast to Coast, AM.
How are you?
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Thank you very much, Richard. It's an honor to be here.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
It's a great concept for a book. How do you
even begin researching something like this or do they just
are there so many examples? It's more question of which
ones don't you want to include in the book.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Oh yes, it's amazing when you start digging into history,
how many goof ups there are out there. People don't
look at history that way. We kind of see history
as a series of large, ponderous events. This invasion happened
in such and such a date. This wark took place
between these months and these years, and so on and
so forth. But really, when you dig into it, it's
(01:08):
this history. History is more of a mosaic of a
lot of small, tiny events that compose those major events.
And with some of those tiny events are mistakes, and
some of them set off a domino effect that can
have a catastrophic results in the end. And that's what
I do with my two books, is to turn history
sideways and look at it from a unique perspective. And
(01:31):
it's amazing how many Smike's Chinese mistakes, small mistakes, bunders,
group ups have had horrible, horrible consequences of long term.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
I wish you taught history to me in high school.
I mean, we learn names, we learn dates, we name
we learn places and events, but don't we don't learn
about the human aspect to historical events.
Speaker 3 (01:59):
Yes, I sort of say people magazine approach to telling history.
Some people consider history to be kind of dull, and
it can't be if it's pulled the wrong way. But
when you look really kind of from the human perspective,
from the personalities involved, the weakness strengths of the individuals
making decisions, that gives it more of a personal perspective
(02:21):
that you can relate to better and makes it a
lot juicier, a lot more, a lot more fun to
delve into.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
All right, I want to dive right in with a
llallapalooza of a tiny blunder which led to well, it
doesn't get much bigger in terms of an historical event
than the collapse of the Roman Empire? Is it someone
inadvertently forgot to lock a gate and that led to
the collapse of the Roman Empire.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Yes, it was the you might have to call it
the vestige, the final vestige of the Roman Empire, which
was the giant fortress at Constantinople. And it was a
magnet deficitly designed fortress. It had like three different barricades,
three different walls, and then it had a moat around
it and it stood for over eleven hundred years. Have
(03:13):
been attacked a number of times, have been successful. There's
one brief period, but it was taken over for two years.
I think it was. Except for that, it stood attack
after attack hundreds of hundreds of years. So the two
or three events that were changing its ability to stand unchallenged,
and that was the development of cannon. I have begun
(03:34):
its toloy. It was fourteen fifty three and the cannons
had been developed. That was one factor. But then, yes,
coming to the tiny mistake. Someone forgot to close and
lock a gate on one of the main walls. And
Helen musksinoat a cute funny cartoon about two and a
half years ago and shows a soldier in bed with
(03:54):
his helmet on at night with a kind of a
bubble showing his thoughts, and it said, did I remember
locked that gate last night? And no he did not,
which allowed the enemy from the Ottoman Empire to get through.
It was one of the factors that led to the
fall of constantineble with again the last remnant of the
(04:16):
Roman Empire. It's a little more complicated than that that
the big cannons were a factor. And there was one
great big cannon like twenty seven feet long, a bronze cannon,
and which she was what they call a bombard, which
means that shot a great, big, giant rock as opposed
to a lead projectile. And it was a very effective
(04:38):
and battering down the walls. But it also it blew
up at one point and it killed the engineer who
designed it, plus the workers that were with him. So
effected for a while. But after a while, of course
that the backpart, so to speak, and it was very
extremely loud by the way as you might imagine, and
(04:59):
no have some of those cannons in museums are about
five hundred years old, which is kind of an interesting
development in itself. But yes, there was somebody who got
to close and lock the gate that led to the
fall of the Roman Empire.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Oh my gosh, that is so fascinating. How does that
come down to us in history? I mean, was the
night watchman keeping a log and he said, bill forgot
to close the gate.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
I don't know the Of course, the umpires had those
river bands they put around their fingers, so keep track
of the downs when we went two and three and
four and so on. Like I guess, somebody didn't have
a a sisto and he got distracted and they had
to go there back. It was just the wrong time.
But somehow that mistake took place, that tiny quote unquote
tiny mistake, which was pivotal in the fall of the
(05:46):
last fortress of the Roman Empire and after being in
existence for well over one thousand years. So it was
one of those in one of those human eras that
had horrible consequences.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
And is there a common threat you see connecting these
tiny mistakes is a human error is it over confidence,
maybe something deeper in our psyche.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
Well, there's a kind of you can say, is attention
to detail. You mentioned in the introduction the butterfly effect,
and that was actually developed by a gentleman, the doctor
Lorenz And he was a leading mathematician back in the
nineteen fifties, and he was dealing with a number back
then that had it was a number a decimale and
(06:29):
eighteen small numbers behind it. Of course, he was smaller
and smaller the further and further to the rights to advance.
And he was working with the computers of the day,
and it was taking a long long time. There was
a weather prediction, the type formula, and he was taking
a long time to finally run the full extent of
the required per formulation, which he was these little tiny numbers,
(06:51):
so some of these low ball six of them at
the end, and that won't make much difference, you know.
He just said, he's saved me a lot of time.
But he was amazed when he did analysis of how
those six numbers had a huge, huge multiplier effect at
the end. It's a little bit analogous to saying you're
starting off in San Francisco heading East, and you're going
to try to go to London. Okay, but your asthmauth,
(07:15):
your cousin, your compass reading is off just a degree
and a half or or two degrees or something like that. Well,
by the time you get to London, you're actually down
in Lisbon, or you're a north or something like that.
It's a progressive type thing. It shows up more and
more and more and more and more. But anyway, he
made a presentation back in the late nineteen fifties explaining that,
(07:37):
and he said that would mean in terms of whether
that's a butterfly we're flapping its wings down in Brazil,
that would set off a chain effect that could lead
to a cyclone in Texas a year and a half later.
And that was the birth of the concept of the
butterfly effect. And what we're doing course of the book
is we're looking at the butterfly effect in history. How
(07:58):
this whole tiny mistake multiplied into this next incident, multiplied, multiplied, domino, domino,
and then at the end of the progression, boom, here's
this horrible, horrible disaster.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Well, one of the most conspicuous examples of the butterfly
effect in human history and I'm going to go back
to your first volume, Tiny Blunders, Big Disasters, thirty nine
Tiny Mistakes to Change the World Forever. The Titanic. Yeah,
you know, the bottom of the ocean, two miles down
beneath the surface of the ocean, off the coast of
(08:32):
Nova Scotia. If it weren't a single key that someone
was supposed to hand off to somebody else, it may
may never have happened. Tell us about that.
Speaker 3 (08:42):
Yes, they were. I had one gentleman that was assigned
to be the second officer of the Titanic. But they
say last minute is to a day before the voyage
was to take place. It changed officers in some places.
In that exchange. The key to a locker was now
passed along, and inside that locker were what they call
(09:03):
it glasses or binoculars. And the people out there in
the crow's nest were used in binoculars, especially at night,
to look for icebergs. And there they were, they and
then they didn't have the key, They did not have
the glasses that they have the binoculars, and there they
were in the middle of the night, and they were
(09:23):
looking for icebergs just with the naked eye. But they
had the binoculars and one of the gentlemen that was there,
and of course they survived the sinking of the Titanic,
and there was a big investigation in New York as
to what the cause of the sinking was. And he
was saying that they had had the glasses several days before,
but they did not have the binoculars that particular night.
(09:43):
And they asked him what differences that have made to
what we've been able to see the Uh, it was
what they call it black iceberg. It was not a
white one. It was a little kind of a darker one.
And they said they've been able to see it much sooner.
How much of a difference that have made? Well, they're
given us, but it's ended in time to be able
to get out of the way. So they said that
if they had the binoculars and they've been able to
(10:04):
scan the horizon, they could have seen the iceberg. And
they called down there to the engine room. Uh, you know,
turned to port please so many degrees. But then they did,
but just another minute or two, maybe even a half
a minute, that would have made all the difference. The
iceberg scraped down the right side of the starboard side
(10:25):
of the ship and it split open UH the rivets
that were along a strip that This is another interesting thing,
is that they had the UH. It was divided into
several different compartments. And they called the Titanic unthinkable because
it could survive the flooding of any two of the
(10:45):
compartments and not sink. And they thought the worst disaster
anybody I could think I was a ship hitting it
right at the juncture of those two compartments and both
of them would flood, and they could survive that well.
But what happened was when they hit the iceberg, the
scraped it down the side and it opened up like
four of the compartments at one time, popping the rivets
up off all the way down. And so all four
(11:08):
compartments were sinking. And so they began to nose down
a little by little, and they saw what was happening,
and they realized that there was nothing much they could do,
and it was going to it was going to sink in.
And Captain Smith it was his name, may have survived
the initial sinking, and they said that he was. They
(11:30):
was swimming towards one of the lifeboats in the water,
and then as he got closed he turned around and
just swam away, according to one or two of the witnesses.
So maybe he said he didn't want to maybe wanted
to go down with the ship. And I don't have
to face the inquiry in New York or whatever, But
that's what happened. If somebody had passed the key along
that went tiny mistake, they would have had the binoculars,
(11:52):
they would seeing the iceberg, and the whole thing might
have been avoided.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
Wow, I'm just trying to let this akin. How much
of a world do you think fate or chance plays
in these worlds altering moments versus the idea that history
is simply the result of human decisions however small, Well, i'll.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
Leave that to the psychics that you interview. They might
have a better answer than I do. That it gets
into the metaphysics. And I don't doubt there's course the
whole question of human will or the decision being made
by the lord that the old quotation from Clint Eastwood,
(12:34):
A man must know his limitations, and that that's one,
and so I don't have the complete answer to so
I don't know that I do.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
Fair enough, Yeah, fair enough? Do you see parallels between
the tiny blunders that you cover, and moments in our
in our personal lives where let's say, minor decisions or
accidents conspiral into larger consequences.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
Oh sure, yes, of course, in everyday life, there's automobile accident,
somebody drops their keys, somebody drops their phone inside the
car that reached them to pick it up. They tragically
hit someone from the rear, they hit a pedestrian. There's
a many, many examples where tiny mistakes I remember done
in Pinsacola, Florida, where I lived for a number of years,
(13:22):
there was a captain who was pushing a barge to
underneath the bridge and he somehow made a mistake and
he hit the bridge and they disabled it. It was
like a year and a half for it to be
repaired where it could function normally again, so and so forth.
Where there's just a countless examples of automobile accidents, of
a plane in accidents, of the train accidents that leads
(13:46):
to their tragedy walls of life. So that happens at
that level, and then of course it also happened happens
a political level, where military mistakes of political mistakes have
horrible quant consequences for and epic proportions for an entire
nation and entire people. So yes, the tiny mistakes are
with us, and they are a major part of our life.
(14:06):
And one of the main things I'm doing in the
book is especially for young people, is to convey the
message that the devil is in the details. You need
to make sure that everything is just exactly right, that
settings are done correctly. I am preparing for operations and
preparing for airplane flights, et cetera. Cover navigational mistakes also
(14:28):
in the second book. So those little tiny mistakes, they
can destroy your life. They can cost the life your
life and the lives of many people around us. That's
one of the main messages in the book, the whole
section there and the importance of checklists. I won't explain
all the details right now, but in the operating room
that was a major program to major development in that
(14:51):
area as well.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
Listen to more Coast to Coast AM every weeknight at
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The Best of Coast to Coast AM News
Host
George Noory
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