The Grumpy Strategists

In Episode 76, the Grumpy Strategists ponder revelations of $29 billion of waste in just some of Australia's big defence projects from Minister for defence industry Pat Conroy. His answer: bold reform that changes things in minor ways that look eerily like the flawed approach Defence took a decade ago. Instead of the Vice Chief of Defence being responsible for decisions, under these bold reforms, the Vice Chief of Defence will be r...

Marcus and Michael each pick their three stand out takeaways from Australian Defence officials testimony about delivery and performance to the Parliament. It's hard to pick winners in a field like this, but there's some overlap in the Grumpy choices. Taxpayers and the Parliament are not amongst them, unfortunately.

Looking at the performance of senior Defence officials, 'Condescending emptiness' and 'falling upward' are terms that...

Marcus talks to SAA's man in Singapore, Graeme Dobell, about the dynamics and developments on show at the annual Defence ministers' gathering in Singapore's Shangri-La hotel. This year, its America talking up the China-US relationship as a source of stability & concert of two, while Japan rises to fill some of the void created by American unreliability, & South Korea builds sovereign power. Australia makes the lonely choice...

In history, a retreat from Singapore can have hairs all over it, but Richard Marles has turned that around, as the Grumpy Strategists unpack the events. At Singapore's Shangri-La dialogue, Mr Marles faced down an America First Pete Hegseth, meeting the Pentagon chief's fiery lethality towards allies with his own Aussie cold steel.

The result is Australia's AUKUS deliverables are now 3 used US Virginia class subs sometime in the 2030...

Marcus and Michael go through the scandalous revelations about 10 years of failed planning on extending the operational life of the only submarines Australia has - the 6 Collins class - while AUKUS subs slowly appear. Disturbingly, the most senior Defence leadership - including the Secretary and the Chief of Navy (just promoted to be the chief of the entire military) were advised numerous times of insurmountable technical and engin...

Michael and Marcus argue furiously over the merits and messages in the Albanese Govt budget versus Opposition leader Angus Taylor's response. Only one of them is right....Then Marcus burrows deep into Parliament House to find a phone to talk numbers with the Defence Chief Finance Officer. Result: a $14 billion cash bump for Defence spending over the next 4 years turns into a $1.2 billion reduction, like magic. Michael recovers from...

A Zen temple helps Marcus seek balance between the contradictions in Australia's defence Strategy, while Michael struggles with a noisy kettle in the bunker. Australia's new Defence Secretary takes over the much smaller empire left by her predecessor - and brings skills to help Minister Pat Conroy produce new numbers around new 'announceables' at will.

Secretary Quinn has arrived in the nick of time, right as Mr Conroy's alchemy of...

The Grumpy Strategists respond to Australia's defence minister, Richard Marles, discussing and releasing the 'new' 2026 Defence Strategy and investment plan. Marcus sees the spirit of Hiroo Onoda, second last Japanese Imperial Army soldier to surrender after World War Two - 29 years after the war ended in March 1974 alive in Mr Marles today.

Like Hiroo, Mr Marles carries the flame of a world that has ended. In Hiroo Onoda's case it ...

Back in the SAA Bunker deep in the Brindabellas, Marcus & Michael declare energy independence (okay, thanks to government subsidies) and ponder the details of the Trump Administration's new Defense budget. $1.5 trillion dollars delivers an all you can eat buffet of spending for everyone involved in the Military Industrial Complex. The traditional big end of town - Lockheed, RTX Raytheon, Northrop and Boeing get cash, & so d...

Marcus calls into the Grumpy Strategists' Brindabella bunker with unwelcome news on more diesel supplies. After this disappointment, the Grumpies ponder the mystery of the Gulf War - a war without belligerents. Everyone is telling their populations that they are not at war, just engaged in military operations or acts of 'collective self defence'. Here in Canberra, PM Albanese has to remember which side of his mouth he's speaking ou...

Well, despite the great news from Energy Minister Chris Bowen that Australia faces no energy crisis other than silly unwashed Australians panicking, the Iran War has already created a global energy crisis even if it stops now. That's less about whether the Strait of Hormuz is open and more about the broader damage already inflicted on Gulf infrastructure. Marcus journeys to Oodnadatta to pick up some premium diesel bargains - witho...

President Eisenhower's 1961 farewell address warning of the US Military Industrial Complex echoes in Canberra today - but with industry and products replaced in the Canberra version by advisory services, post-career consultancies and invoices.

Marcus and Michael discover that biofuel brewing isn't so easy even in a fuel crisis. Feedstock like the National Anti-Corruption Commission's (the NACC) indigestible and philosophically inven...

Marcus and Michael get serious about biofuel, with a novel feedstock straight from Defence's Russell Offices. They look at the rapidly expanding Iran War, with multiple US partners getting pulled into a messy patchwork, all desperately trying to quarantine their roles into a defensive effort. They explain the Australian policy to ensure no ADF personnel are involved in attacking Iran, even when they are (hint: closing eyes at criti...

Marcus and Michael reflect on their wisdom in modifying the Grumpies bunker to hold thousands of litres of diesel and 8 pallets of tinned tomatoes, as the war escalates in the Middle East. They set out three scenarios for the outcome and only one of them - the least likely (spoiler, it involves rose petals and cheering crowds)- is good. Then it's on to examine the desperate contortions of US allies - notably the UK's Keir Starmer...

Marcus goes diving to try to find rock bottom in Australian political discourse, but has to come up for air. He at least found the curious case of a Canberra cafe that police found had put up satirical posters & hosts live music (What have we come to as a people???). No arrests or jail time yet....Then it's back to the undersea world of AUKUS progress and the far more concrete, rapid momentum behind Chinese nuclear powered - a...

The Grumpy Strategists boggle at the sheer chutzpah of PM Albanese and State Premier Malinauskas announcing as a triumph spending $30 billion & taking until 2040 to build submarine construction sheds (not actual submarines). At least the premier had the honesty to say the biggest beneficiaries weren't Australians worried about security, they were the South Australians who are to receive this firehose of taxpayer cash. He's righ...

The Grumpy Strategists pan for gold in 234 pages of dense, incoherent Government paperwork setting out the Albanese Government's revised plans for our nation's defence, and find some rather smelly nuggets. About $3.2 billion dollars is being brought forward to be spent earlier than planned - with a $1.2 billion chunk on more bills for those still distant AUKUS subs. But the overall Defence budget for this next 4 years is being cut ...

The Grumpy Strategists look at the recent 'historic" plan for Australia's Defence real estate (okay, a shameless Government asset sale of historic sites to perhaps produce a one-off cash dribble that will be sucked into the AUKUS sub & Hunter frigate budgetary black holes.....). Metrics show the value of this deceased estate approach to Defence properties: flogging off most of the places Defence actually makes contact with Aus...

Marcus & Michael pull together a deal Australian PM Albanese can offer to his great & powerful pal, US President Trump, at his first meeting of the Board of Peace, with lessons in Trump-management even for Vladimir Putin. They review the Australian Government's cunning formula on US actions in the world - 'I don't intend to provide a running commentary on American policy' - and assess how well this text will work as the ba...