November 5, 2024 • 36 mins
Hour 2 of A&G features...
- We might not get election results today
- Monkeys writing Shakespeare
- Lanhee Chen talks to A&G
- What does the republican party look like without Trump?
Stupid Should Hurt: https://www.armstrongandgetty.com/
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio, the George
Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe, Getty.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Arm Strong and Getty Enough Hee Armstrong and Getty.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Yeah, we finally made it Election Day. Yeah, but it's
that super chill time when the whole country it takes
on the vibe of two am waffle House parking lot.
Of course, there's a good chance we won't know the
final results, which is kind of frustrating. It's like sitting
through a twenty four hour gender reveal party in the
couple's like, you guys, guys, come back on Friday.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
We're just gonna do pat. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (00:46):
I remember it was the day over before the election
in two thousand.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Joe and I were still doing this same show twenty
four years dead end gig. Anyway, it was.
Speaker 4 (01:03):
It was looking like it was going to be close,
and I remember us saying, wouldn't it be crazy if
we didn't know who even won today? We had to
wait till tomorrow. I mean that because that hadn't happened
in our lifetimes. As always, you find out that night
it's solid, everybody believes it, and you go on with
your life. And then it ended up being mean ment,
and now we kind of are in a place where
(01:25):
you hardly expect to find out who won, uh looking
at Ian Bremmer just tweeted this out. When Americans elections
have been called since nineteen eighty four, so going all
the way back to then within an hour of the
polls closing every election eighty four, eighty eight, ninety two,
(01:46):
ninety six, which is why we had the attitude we
had going into two thousand. Then you had a thirty
six day in two thousand. In two thousand and four,
it took till the next morning and eight it took
a couple hours twenty twelve, couple hours twenty sixteen, few hours,
twenty twenty long time.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
As we all know how it's going to go tonight,
I do not know.
Speaker 4 (02:11):
Here are two things I'm going to be watching just
because the pundits that I listen to, And I'm going
to give West Coast times because I don't like the
belligerent East Coast always giving East Coast times as if
I'm supposed to do the math when I live in
California all the time.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
So these are West Coast times.
Speaker 4 (02:27):
North Carolina and Georgia close at four and four thirty,
and they will know results fairly quickly.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
If Kamala Harris.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
According to Mark Calprin and a couple other punnets, if
if Kamala Harris wins one or both of those, she's
almost certainly going to win. If she wins North Carolina Georgia,
and that'll be middle of the afternoon for those of
us on the on the west side of the.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Country, early enough for everybody.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
Yeah, if she wins one or both of those, she's
probably going to win.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
Most likely Trump wins them, and then we're still, you know,
up in the air.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
But that to me, then I'll just turn off the
TV and I'll do something else, and I'll listen to music,
and I'll wake up in the morning and I'll walk
out to the UH driveway and get the morning paper
and see who won, because I'm not going to follow
all that crap.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
If it's Kamala winning, you know, I won't get no million.
Speaker 5 (03:12):
I'm going to I'm gonna put on my Captain America
outfit and put on my lace up, my riot and
shoes and get ready to smash stuff up because that's
what the media keeps telling me. I'm going to do,
right yeah, no kidding.
Speaker 4 (03:24):
Here's a little infotainment for you on what we can
look for tonight.
Speaker 6 (03:28):
Here's what to expect as being wait for the results.
Forty three states can begin processing absentee and mail in
ballots before election day. This typically involves verify the voter's
information and eligibility and then opening the envelopes who it
can be tabulated by a voting machine. Washington, DC, and
seven states including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin don't begin these steps
until today, so just keep that in mind.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
Yeah, that slows things down the states that don't start
till today.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
More on that now, ask.
Speaker 6 (03:55):
For the count Fourteen states and DC do not allow
counting until the polls close. Oo Twenty three states allow
counting to begin before the polls close. However, different states
have different laws. In North Carolina, for instance, in person
early votes can't be counted before the polls close, but
mail absentee ballots received before election day can be tabulated.
(04:16):
In Georgia, election officials can begin working on early in
person votes when the polls open, but they can't tabulate
them until the polls close.
Speaker 7 (04:24):
And then.
Speaker 6 (04:24):
Finally, twelve states allow both processing and counting to begin
before election day. This is the case in Nevada and Arizona.
Officials from Aricopa County, Arizona's most populous county, expect to
report fifty five percent of the total vote and seventy
to seventy five percent of early ballots by the time
poles close.
Speaker 5 (04:43):
All right, the entire audience's eyes glazed over eight seconds
into that and realized, I'm never going to comprehend, much
less memorise all of your problaration. I will tell you
this two interesting things.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
Number One, to something like two thirds of the population
of Arizona is in Maricopa County. It's like everybody practically
in the county that includes Phoenix. Secondly, this list of
the states.
Speaker 5 (05:06):
That matter, the states that it all hinges upon Pennsylvania.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
Excellent point. I would say to any journalists out there,
any talk about polls closing or anything like that in
anything other than the seven swing states is worthless information.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
Forty three states do this, in seventeen states do that.
Speaker 5 (05:24):
On the other hand, half of those seventeen and triple
the number of the other thirty four who this that
nobody can.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Come only matters in six to seven states.
Speaker 5 (05:33):
So, for example, Pennsylvania last time around, when it was
quite close. Biden declared victory after the AP called Pennsylvania
three and a half days later.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
And it's likely.
Speaker 5 (05:50):
Because of Pennsylvania's various vote counting procedures that it'll take
a while to know. Well, Godor Shapiro says, they've cleaned
that up a lot, they get I hope that's true.
They got a lot more employees, they've got a better method. Yeah, Arizona.
And it's funny because so many of the swing states
have various wrinkles in their voting laws that tend to
(06:10):
make it a longer process to figure out who won.
Arizona permits election officials to begin processing mail in ballots
after early voting begins, but crucially requires officials to wait
until after the polls closed to count them. During the
twenty two mid terms, some twenty percent of mail in
votes were dropped off on election day, requiring time consuming
(06:30):
verification procedures to ensure the ballots were legit Well, one
of the.
Speaker 4 (06:36):
Problems with comparing anything to twenty twenty is we're in
the midst of the worst pandemic in a century, and
things were very weird.
Speaker 5 (06:43):
Yeah, that was twenty two for the record, but yes,
that is absolutely valid, they mentioned, and again some of
the states have cleaned up their acts. But just for instance,
it took three and a half days to Can't to
call Pennsylvania, it took six sixteen days to call Georgia,
it took ten days to call North Carolina, and it
(07:06):
took eight days to call Alaska.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
Nobody cares about Alaska.
Speaker 5 (07:10):
Now Alaskan's care about I care about Alaska, But electorally speaking,
let's talk about Moose.
Speaker 4 (07:16):
Just more interesting, just for all the punditry I take in.
I think we're gonna get a result tonight, especially if
you're a West coast since it's you know, it might
be one or two in the morning if you're on
the East coast. But I think we're gonna get a
result tonight, either like a solid result or a we
know how it's gonna turn out. They can't call it
because statistically you could catch up, but very unlikely.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
I think we'll know. I just I think that's the
way it's gonna break. I hope you're right. I think
that would be much better for the country, no doubt
about that. And then just wanted to speak to and
this is.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
One value out of hearing that long list of how
everybody does it, including states that we know how they're
gonna vote. There's an argument always from a certain crowd
of why don't we make this more uniform. Well, the
fact that it's so not uniform is one of the
reasons it's so difficult to rig an election in this country.
Every precinct, every county, every state has such a different
way of doing things.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
It would be really, really hard to rig a national election.
Which is good and you're absolutely right.
Speaker 5 (08:16):
We are listing some of the horrific policies of Kamala
and the left last hour, including packing the Supreme Court,
ending the filibuster, throwing the borders open.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
I mean, the list goes on and on.
Speaker 5 (08:28):
We left out, We left out the fact that they
want to nationalize all election procedures and controls, which is
a horrible idea. And boy, the party that's in favor
of ballot harvesting and spreading ballots willy nilly across the
land and voting for six months and all, they also
(08:49):
want to control the process from DC.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
That's so interesting.
Speaker 4 (08:55):
There's a slim possibility that Kamala Harris win the.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
Electoral College and loses the popular vote.
Speaker 4 (09:04):
Very slim, but it could happen, which would be fun
because everybody would flip their scripts on whether or not
they support the electoral college versus the popular vote.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
That would be hilarious to watch.
Speaker 5 (09:17):
And again, I'm sorry, Michael, Michael, give me fifty two again.
Enjoy today the election day, especially for this reason.
Speaker 8 (09:25):
If we don't show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible. No,
it's not that we will not have the opportunity to
ever cast a ballot.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
Again, that's dumb. Okay. God is the last American election.
According to Oprah Winfrey, it Republicans prevails.
Speaker 4 (09:44):
So I respect her more if she's pandering than if
she actually believes that.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
God.
Speaker 5 (09:51):
I just saw ABC's Yeah, I'd rather deal with a
liar than a lunatic.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (09:55):
ABC's headline was after the shortest election in US history
or campaigns, which is technically true, But did it feel
that way to anybody?
Speaker 8 (10:06):
Now?
Speaker 2 (10:08):
Boy? Let me up, I've had enough. Okay.
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Speaker 2 (11:17):
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Speaker 4 (11:19):
If you want celebrities saying things that are almost certainly
not true and hyperbole on the closing moments of Silly Season.
Elon Musk was on Joe Rogan yesterday and said, if
Kamala Harris wins, she will shut down Twitter.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
I don't think that's true.
Speaker 4 (11:35):
But the important thing out of that conversation was Joe
Rogan endorsed Donald Trump. That endorsement, if any matter, is
miles more important than whether or not the Washington Post
is endorsed Kamala Harris. Oh yeah, yeah, monumentally more important
in terms of undecided working class people out there who
(11:57):
listen to Joe Rogan. Absolute freaking lutely, that's more important.
Didn't get near the attention as whether the Washington Post
endorsed or not, or when j Lo comes out and
makes an endorsement.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
Are you crazy, Joe? Honesty?
Speaker 5 (12:09):
Taylor Swift's endorsement was more important than the Washington Post.
Oh absolutely, absolutely, that got enormous attention.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
It's funny the contrast between the attention paid to the
two endorsements, isn't it? It's odd? This is something going
on here.
Speaker 4 (12:21):
We got an interesting question for our old friend lanhie
Chin coming up a little later this hour. Give us
a handful of reasons why each candidate could win, or
if they won, why they won, which I think will
be interesting from a super smart guy, among other things.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
On the way, art, heyety, I I don't feel any
different from when I was sixteen.
Speaker 2 (12:43):
I still think.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
About boys, and I still hate my hair.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
You know that has not changed.
Speaker 1 (12:49):
You know what the big difference is. Tell us I
can say no, and younger people are so access to please.
Oh yes, I can do that. Oh sure I want that.
Oh yes, that's a good idea. I've learned to say
I'm sorry. That doesn't really work for me. I've never
been able to say that.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Ever.
Speaker 4 (13:08):
That's an eighty five year old explaining what it's like
to be eighty five versus when she was younger. She
still thinks about boys, hates her hair, but now can
say no to things.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
Hmm, excellent. Here's the personal growth coming up? Coming up?
Speaker 5 (13:23):
Could California elect Donald Trump?
Speaker 2 (13:26):
What? I know?
Speaker 5 (13:28):
It's an odd question. It's a bit of a trick question.
And speaking of could this or that, could a monkey,
given infinite time rite Shakespeare's complete works before the universe
dives dies? Okay, so that's a long running conundrum. You know,
the whole infinite number of monkeys on an infinite number
(13:49):
of typewriters, given an infinite time, would eventually produce the
complete works of Shakespeare.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
I don't think I've ever bought that. So this is
answering the question. Well, yeah, although.
Speaker 5 (13:59):
This one went with it's a variation of that, the
infinite monkey theorem that given infinite time, could a monkey
produce the works of Shakespeare?
Speaker 4 (14:10):
I suppose technically, if you've got infinite time, you can't
say no to anything.
Speaker 5 (14:15):
Well, right, but that's if that is like a groovy
and funny way to explain what infinity is to somebody. Okay, great,
but no, no, damn monkeys are going to produce the
works of Shay. Can you imagine? And the first time
I heard that, I said, I'm not buying that. No,
not happening.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Can you imagine?
Speaker 5 (14:37):
You get like to the I don't remember the last
thing Shakespeare wrote, but you.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Get to the end and like on the last page,
there's a typo.
Speaker 4 (14:42):
Oh yeah, that's the great Simpsons joke where mister Burns
walks in a room full of monkeys at typewriters and
he pulls a piece of paper out at one of
the monkeys typewriters and he reads it was the best
of times.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
It was the blurst of times.
Speaker 5 (14:56):
He's angry because a monkey's had a typo right, hilarious.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
So they were able to type literature. They just made
a mistake on one word, and he was angry. Also
read three search.
Speaker 4 (15:11):
I just was looking at this schedule. Both candidates have
huge schedules today, radio interviews, rallies, appearances, So they must think,
you know, I supposed to make sense if half the
votes have already been cast, half the votes haven't, but
boy she got half.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
Then the tiny amount that could be persuaded by one
more radio interview or rally, which has got to be
a tiny number.
Speaker 5 (15:41):
Yeah, oh yeah, absolutely. I just think everybody's thinking about
twenty twenty. We're a vanishingly small number of votes decide
the election. But I happened to know a person who
was absolutely determined to vote. Uh, but they are perhaps
attending a graduate school that's somewhat distant from their home
address and was gonna have to track and then decided
(16:02):
not to, then decided to again, or maybe you got to.
You're a truck driver and your route gets all screwed
up and you're gonna get home late anyway, and you're thinking,
I don't know, I'm just one vote.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
They're just trying to get.
Speaker 5 (16:14):
That last tiny squeeze, that last drop of turnout.
Speaker 4 (16:20):
Sure, got a sick kid at home today. You know,
you can be planning to do something, the kids sick,
and you think, yeah, I just got too much going on.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
It can happen unless there's just that one little tweak.
Do you want to hear?
Speaker 5 (16:30):
The California thing is long we're talking about this could
California elect Donald Trump? It's from the Wall Street Journal
editorial board. There has been so much outflow of people
from California, New York and Illinois that it might swing
(16:50):
the election for Donald Trump. What it's plausible that the
population flight from those states to some of this year's
electoral battlegrounds could help Trump win a second term. And
they mention it's not only that a lot of conservative
to moderate people have left the Blue states but population
shifts in the twenty tens reduced the Democrats advantage in
(17:10):
the electoral college. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
and West Virginia each lost a vote in the electoral
college because they lost a rep in the House of Representatives.
Texas picked up two. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and
Oregon each added one. And they go through a bunch
of scenarios where Kamala Harris starts the count with a
(17:34):
built in lead that's three votes smaller than Joe Biden's
in twenty twenty, the sure blue states are three electoral
votes fewer than they were, and they run through various
scenarios where if she won a fairly predictable slate of states,
she'd be two electoral votes short just because of the
change in population over the last decade.
Speaker 4 (17:54):
Man, I'm taking in some of the cable news channel media,
just through highlights and stuff like that. Democrat panels seem
a little panicked. I don't know what insider information they have,
but there it looks like there's some finger pointing going on.
We're gonna talk to Lennie jen about the election coming
up stay with us.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Are strong and getty.
Speaker 9 (18:14):
You say, Kamala, you're horrible at your job. You don't
know what you're doing. You're a low IQ individual. We
want smart people, we want cunning people. We're dealing with
the smartest people in the world. We don't want your
negotiating nuclear deals because you don't want there.
Speaker 10 (18:31):
You don't know what the word nuclear means. Kamala, Yeah fired,
Get the hell out of here.
Speaker 2 (18:39):
I ask you one last time. Are you ready to
make your voices heard? Do we believe in freedom? Do
we believe in opportunity?
Speaker 8 (18:55):
Do we believe in the promise of America?
Speaker 11 (19:01):
Wait? Running to find.
Speaker 12 (19:05):
Yeah? Bless what could be better after hearing from our
two sterling candidates than Lady Gaga lifting her voice in.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Saul turn it Up? Michael standy side. Oh boy, I
just saw Why am I? What have I done that
I'm being punished like this? I just saw Van Jones off.
Speaker 7 (19:32):
I can't stand it.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
I just saw Van Jones on CNN saying I don't
think closing with all the celebrities was a good idea.
The difference is working class, blue collar people Michigan, Wisconsin
and Pennsylvania. I don't think Lady Gaga and all these celebrities.
Was a good idea that's from Van Jones, which I
think is interesting.
Speaker 2 (19:49):
Hmmm, he's a serious man. Speaking of serious men.
Speaker 5 (19:52):
Please welcome lon each end of the show, Lonie David
and Diane Staffy, Fellow in American Public Policy Studies at
the Hoover Institution and the Director of Domestic Policy Studies
at Stanford University.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
Lon Hey, greetings, how.
Speaker 7 (20:03):
Are you Happy election day?
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Gentlemen?
Speaker 5 (20:06):
Thank you, thank you, just just taking off on what
we were just talking about, like saying happy surgery days.
Speaker 11 (20:13):
I guess everyone's ready. Everyone's ready, much like the surgery
for it to be done well.
Speaker 4 (20:20):
And what's going to be done. The voting is going
to be done. We certainly aren't done with fighting over
the results and then the policy decisions that are coming
with either of these two candidates.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
That could be something right.
Speaker 11 (20:32):
Yeah, I mean unfortunately, because you know, you look at
California as an example, how long it takes us to
count ballots. You know, we probably won't have a result
in some of these really close congressional races for even
a couple of weeks. And then of course there's all
the discussion about what will happen in the new Congress
and the new administration, and that doesn't happen till January,
so it is an extended conversation. You wish that we
(20:53):
could have a system of slightly more efficient vote counting
and that people had a lot of faith and trust in,
but this is where we're at, you know, this is
the system we have, and I think it is going
to be a little bit before we get a result.
Speaker 5 (21:06):
You know, I hadn't intended to talk about this, but
as long as you brought it up. I saw a
piece in the Journal not long ago that Democrats make
California a battleground state, talking about how there are several
important congressional races that used to be pretty easy to
call blue, but there's been a certain amount of backlash
in California.
Speaker 11 (21:24):
Yeah, and actually, you know, amongst the folks listening to
the show, you've got people who are in these really
important targeted districts, and they go all the way up
and down the state. So in the Central Valley, you've
got one that's near Stockton that picks up a good
part of San Joaquin County, just a sliver of Contra
Costa County and runs a little bit south from there,
(21:47):
you've got one in the Central Valley, two in the
Central Valley. Actually, then you go down to Orange County
and you've got several down there that are important, including
one that extends into northern San Diego County. So there
are actually, I would say probably five or six really
competitive congressional districts that Republicans have not just a decent
(22:07):
shot in, but probably should win at least a number
of them. So it does really argue against the notion
of blue hegemony in California. I think these seats are
actually really important to determining control of Congress, and that's
why it's really important for folks to vote.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
Yeah, that'd be good for America in my opinion.
Speaker 4 (22:26):
So speaking of America in the national race, Harris versus Trump,
give us if Harris wins, she ends up being the winner.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
What are the three reasons she won? Wow? Great?
Speaker 7 (22:36):
Question.
Speaker 11 (22:38):
Number one is that she's able to reassemble key elements
of I guess what she'd call the Obama Coalition, and
that's you know, union members, that's African American voters, that's
Hispanic voters, and it's suburban whites. And if she's able
(22:59):
to win, it's going to be because that coalition has
essentially come back together.
Speaker 7 (23:04):
That'd be number one. Number two, she's able to activate women.
Speaker 11 (23:09):
And this is the great unanswered question we have as
we sit here at seven thirty am Pacific. How many
women are going to vote and how are they going
to vote? If the if you look at American politics,
the two biggest predictors of how someone's going to vote
are their gender and their education level. And if you
if you look at an elector tonight that is overwhelmingly
(23:32):
female versus male, that will give you some indication that
she's doing either better than expected or certainly online with
the expectations to make this a very close race. And
then the last thing I'll just say is the abortion issue.
This is something that caused the twenty twenty two elections
to turn out the way they did, And what I
mean by that is that this so called red wave
(23:53):
we were expecting really never materialized in the way that
we thought it would because there was so much backlash
and ways to that decision the Supreme Court to overturn
Roe versus Wade. If she's winning or if she wins
this election, it will be because that issue activated key
voters in key states, and it doesn't show up as
(24:14):
a top issue necessarily compared to the economy and immigration,
but it is a top issue for some of those
voters I talked about earlier, part of the Obama coalition,
a lot of the women voters that may show up
to support her, Those will be the three reasons why
she wins.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
Well, I think you just tipped your hand. What are
the three reasons if Trump ends up the victor that
he won?
Speaker 10 (24:33):
Well?
Speaker 11 (24:33):
Number one, you know, I mean the flip side of
that is his ability to create a coalition that's unlike
any other Republican has created before, and that means driving
up margins, particularly with urban voters.
Speaker 7 (24:47):
We've talked a little.
Speaker 11 (24:48):
Bit about the way in which he's managed to erode
the Democrat advantage on black voters and on Hispanic voters.
Speaker 7 (24:56):
If that really does end.
Speaker 11 (24:57):
Up being true, that'll go a long way toward explaining
a Trump success. The second thing I would say is
it's his ability to activate white working class voters who
don't traditionally vote. We call them low propensity voters, but
you're talking about folks who don't make a habit of
going to the ballot box. These are people who might
(25:17):
only vote for Donald Trump and not for anybody else.
And that's why a lot of these Senate candidates who
are Republicans, even in these swing states, are going to
have issues potentially even if Trump wins, He's got to
win by a lot for them to get across the
finish line in some cases. But it is really about
how he's able potentially to activate these voters. And then
the last thing is just the issue focus. If we
(25:37):
look at exit polling tonight, and by far the key
issues that voters are keying in on are at the
economy and immigration, it could be a very good night
for Donald Trump.
Speaker 5 (25:46):
Hey, this can be a very very brief answer if
you want, how are you setting yourself up emotionally for that?
How long is it going to take booze figure out
who's won?
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Booze? Is the answer? Yes? How about that? That's going
to take?
Speaker 7 (26:00):
That is the answer?
Speaker 5 (26:02):
Or is that impossible to say? And if it's impossible,
it's fine.
Speaker 11 (26:06):
Well, you know, look, I think if the polls and
the estimates are right, it is going to take us
at least a few days to resolve some of these states. Now, look,
there's a probability, there's a possibility that this isn't close
at all. I mean, if we look and we see,
for example, that Kamala Harris is competitive in North Carolina,
(26:27):
and by competitive I mean she's either ahead or within
striking distance. The same goes for Georgia, this could be
over very quickly for her. On the flip side of it,
if we see that Donald Trump's margins in Pennsylvania are
much more significant than we would have expected coming from
the early vote, and that she is not making up
enough ground in the urban core of Philadelphia, it could
(26:49):
be over.
Speaker 7 (26:50):
Very early for Donald Trump tonight. So here's what I
would say.
Speaker 11 (26:55):
I'd say probably a sixty percent likelihood that this goes
into tomorrow or beyond, no, maybe seventy percent, and then
there's a thirty percent likelihood that either Trump or Harris
is declared the winner overnight tonight.
Speaker 5 (27:10):
So going from I want a short answer to this,
one can be book length. In fact, if you'd like
to talk to the show Wow, we will just tell
you when to break for commercials and listen. But you know,
it's been said that a loss can be a gift
in a way because you can reassess and reinvent your
party and go forward to greater success in the future,
(27:32):
abandon some of the bad habits that drag you down.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
Each party if they lose, what is.
Speaker 5 (27:39):
The big change you think they should make and feel
free to throw in whether you think they're smart or
self aware enough.
Speaker 2 (27:45):
To do it.
Speaker 7 (27:47):
Well, let's start with the Democrats.
Speaker 11 (27:49):
I think it is really important for them to understand
that the excesses of the last few years on a
whole set of issues, whether I would call them cultural
issues or economics in terms of using stuff like the
Inflation Reduction Act, massive increases in spending. The combination of
(28:09):
that excess has driven them into a position in many
states where they just aren't as competitive as they used
to be. The old kind of working class union base
of the Democratic Party has been eroded in many states,
and that's because they have simply gone too far. And
if you ask voters in a lot of places, they'll
tell you that they think that the progressive excesses of
(28:30):
the Democratic Party are what have turned them off and
have ultimately made them support Donald Trump, who made them So.
Speaker 4 (28:37):
Are you trying to tell me that the average guy
that works in the machine shop is not down with
the termal of TX.
Speaker 11 (28:43):
Well, I mean, that's that's a great example. That's a
great example. And it's not even the term. It's being
made to feel badly that you don't use the term,
or being made to feel badly that you don't adhere
to a certain orthodoxy. And I think that that excess
on the left has really cost them electorally in many
of these places we're talking about.
Speaker 7 (29:03):
Whether it's in so again, I.
Speaker 5 (29:05):
Don't have a PhD, but you're suggesting that never ending
judgment and condensation, condescension rather starts to wear on people.
Speaker 7 (29:14):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean, I know it's crazy.
Speaker 11 (29:16):
It's crazy, right, I mean, we we we we all
love a good lecture.
Speaker 7 (29:19):
I guess what.
Speaker 11 (29:20):
About the Republicans, you know there, I think it will be.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
Don't nominate Trump again?
Speaker 11 (29:26):
Well, I know, I mean I think that that that
they may be part of it is, but but I
think the other part of it is there. There does
need to be a little bit of a re examination
because I think that over the last couple of years
there are issues on which Democrats and Republicans have actually converged.
And one of those I've mentioned already, which is really
leaning in on a bigger role for the federal government,
(29:47):
and that includes on on spending, it includes on uh,
you know, on on abortion rights, for example. There's been
some conversation about this as well, but the basic point
is that if you look at the nineteen eighties and
nineteen nineties, there was a contrast, a pretty clear contrast
in terms of the role of government, in terms of
the way in which Republicans and Democrats approached it, approach
(30:12):
certain economic questions, et cetera.
Speaker 7 (30:14):
And there was a contrast.
Speaker 11 (30:16):
And over the last couple of years some of that
contrast I think has arguably eroded, and I think Republicans
have to figure out again, are there elements of that
let's call it traditional approach to economic policy, for.
Speaker 7 (30:27):
Example, that need to be renovated.
Speaker 11 (30:30):
I mean, aside from the Trump question, which I think
is obviously the big lingering eight hundred pound gorilla, if
you will, which is to what degree was it a
function of nominating him? I think there will be some
conversation about that, But there's a bigger issue that goes
well beyond Trump, which is what doesn't mean to be
a Republican? I mean, like, what does that actually mean anymore?
And I think there's been, aside from being the Party
(30:51):
of Trump, which is what it's been for the last
better part of eight years. Now, I think people will
need to really sit back and say, hey, you know,
do we have a viable center right conservative movement in
this country and what does it look like in contrast
to what the Democrats are proposing.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
Lani Chen, who I believe the stat is right.
Speaker 4 (31:08):
You got more Republican votes in twenty twenty two than
anybody in the country.
Speaker 11 (31:14):
More votes, Yeah, more including Versantis, that's correct.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Which is amazing.
Speaker 4 (31:20):
Yeah, and unfortunately he lost because California is a communist state.
Speaker 5 (31:24):
Correct, you said it, not me right, one party kleptocracy.
Lani Chen of the Hoover Institution in Stanford University.
Speaker 2 (31:32):
We look forward to chatting with you post election. Lani.
It makes sense of the.
Speaker 11 (31:36):
Mess absolutely, And if you haven't voted yet, get out
there and vote today.
Speaker 2 (31:40):
Cool. That is.
Speaker 4 (31:41):
That is an amazing stat because Ron de Santis won
by like twenty points in a very large state. He
still didn't get him any as many votes as Lanhi
Chen got. And Lani Chen was endorsed by what the
La Times, the San Francisco Chronicle. I mean everybody needs still.
Speaker 5 (31:55):
Major publication website in California, the scratch Still the politics
are so stupid that there were so many people that
just could not vote for an R under any circumstances.
Speaker 4 (32:05):
And just you know, I hope we moved past that
at some point. I mean, just as a nation, not
even California, and the well.
Speaker 5 (32:12):
California is unique, and that the order came down from
all the public employee unions.
Speaker 2 (32:16):
Yeah whatever, vote D and.
Speaker 5 (32:18):
They voted D so and nominated half a crook and
half a moron or elected rather.
Speaker 4 (32:23):
One of the most respected posters American, Nate Silver, ran
his simulator last night with all the polls in eighty
thousand times eighty thousand simulations.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
How did it turn out? Who won?
Speaker 4 (32:36):
We'll hit you with that, among other things on the way.
Speaker 10 (32:41):
I mean, Nancy Pelosi, she's a crooked person. She is
a bad person, evil, she's an evil, sick crazy.
Speaker 1 (32:50):
Bit.
Speaker 10 (32:51):
Oh no, it starts with it B. But I won't
say it.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
Wow, I want to say it.
Speaker 10 (33:10):
I want to say but Franklin Graham said, sir, I
love your speaking ability, and I love your storytelling, but honestly,
it would be even better if you wouldn't use foul language,
and I don't use much, you know, every once in
a while, and it's never a real bad word. It's
you know, it's like never bad and so I try
(33:31):
to it here. But he's wrong about one thing. It
is a little better when you use the foul language
because it's more actress.
Speaker 4 (33:40):
So either wing either Today is kind of the end
of the whole Trump thing after nearly a decade or
four more years as president of the most powerful nation
on earth.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
And we'll see in Islan.
Speaker 5 (33:56):
He was hinting at at least what does the Republican
Party look like without Trump?
Speaker 2 (34:02):
Good question. Nobody knows the answer to that. What's its platform?
Speaker 10 (34:05):
So?
Speaker 2 (34:05):
How interested are people in the election?
Speaker 4 (34:08):
I came across this yesterday to help booster my willingness
to talk about this. What percentage of people rate their
interest in the election at a nine out of ten
or higher? So nine out of ten or ten out
of ten, And it's about eighty percent of people. And
I gotta believe of people listening to the show or
(34:29):
taking in podcasts or talk radio or whatever, you're in
that crowd. But eighty percent of people rate it as
a nine or ten Their level of interest. That is something.
Speaker 5 (34:40):
So I want to be surprised to hear that, honestly,
given the spectacular turnout across the country in early voting.
Speaker 2 (34:45):
Yeah so, Nate.
Speaker 4 (34:50):
Silver is one of the more respected pollsters in America.
He ran his final simulation after midnight last night of
how he thought it was going to turn out. He
plugs in all the poles and all the waiting, and
he's got his own methodology, which I don't think he
shares all of it.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
And the Chiefs beat the Eagles twenty seven to twenty
What does that mean? They run the computer simulations eighty
thousand times before the Super Bowl too?
Speaker 4 (35:22):
Oh okay, gotcha, So maddens thing. He ran his simulation
eighty thousand times. What's interesting about this to me is
with all the polling plugged in and everything like that,
Harris won forty thousand and twelve eighty thousand times. He
ran the whole simulation. She won twelve more times than Trump.
Speaker 2 (35:43):
So there you have it. It's pretty close. Apparently.
Speaker 5 (35:47):
Oh, I feel like the gods are mocking us or something.
There were punished, right, punished or something.
Speaker 4 (35:53):
I don't even know, as we've been saying it doesn't
seem like if your goal was to get the country
fifty to fifty, you could get this close possible.
Speaker 5 (36:00):
Oh no, no, no, back to an infinite number of
monkeys on an infinite number of typewriters know, an infinite
number of political operatives with an infinite amount of cash
could not produce an election this close.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
Yeah, I was just looking up at cable news channels.
Speaker 4 (36:14):
I observed something worth commenting on, among other things, we'd
like to hear your texts too and emails.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
Stay with us, Armstrong and Getty
Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio, the George
Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe, Getty.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Arm Strong and Getty Enough Hee Armstrong and Getty.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Yeah, we finally made it Election Day. Yeah, but it's
that super chill time when the whole country it takes
on the vibe of two am waffle House parking lot.
Of course, there's a good chance we won't know the
final results, which is kind of frustrating. It's like sitting
through a twenty four hour gender reveal party in the
couple's like, you guys, guys, come back on Friday.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
We're just gonna do pat. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (00:46):
I remember it was the day over before the election
in two thousand.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Joe and I were still doing this same show twenty
four years dead end gig. Anyway, it was.
Speaker 4 (01:03):
It was looking like it was going to be close,
and I remember us saying, wouldn't it be crazy if
we didn't know who even won today? We had to
wait till tomorrow. I mean that because that hadn't happened
in our lifetimes. As always, you find out that night
it's solid, everybody believes it, and you go on with
your life. And then it ended up being mean ment,
and now we kind of are in a place where
(01:25):
you hardly expect to find out who won, uh looking
at Ian Bremmer just tweeted this out. When Americans elections
have been called since nineteen eighty four, so going all
the way back to then within an hour of the
polls closing every election eighty four, eighty eight, ninety two,
(01:46):
ninety six, which is why we had the attitude we
had going into two thousand. Then you had a thirty
six day in two thousand. In two thousand and four,
it took till the next morning and eight it took
a couple hours twenty twelve, couple hours twenty sixteen, few hours,
twenty twenty long time.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
As we all know how it's going to go tonight,
I do not know.
Speaker 4 (02:11):
Here are two things I'm going to be watching just
because the pundits that I listen to, And I'm going
to give West Coast times because I don't like the
belligerent East Coast always giving East Coast times as if
I'm supposed to do the math when I live in
California all the time.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
So these are West Coast times.
Speaker 4 (02:27):
North Carolina and Georgia close at four and four thirty,
and they will know results fairly quickly.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
If Kamala Harris.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
According to Mark Calprin and a couple other punnets, if
if Kamala Harris wins one or both of those, she's
almost certainly going to win. If she wins North Carolina Georgia,
and that'll be middle of the afternoon for those of
us on the on the west side of the.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Country, early enough for everybody.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
Yeah, if she wins one or both of those, she's
probably going to win.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
Most likely Trump wins them, and then we're still, you know,
up in the air.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
But that to me, then I'll just turn off the
TV and I'll do something else, and I'll listen to music,
and I'll wake up in the morning and I'll walk
out to the UH driveway and get the morning paper
and see who won, because I'm not going to follow
all that crap.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
If it's Kamala winning, you know, I won't get no million.
Speaker 5 (03:12):
I'm going to I'm gonna put on my Captain America
outfit and put on my lace up, my riot and
shoes and get ready to smash stuff up because that's
what the media keeps telling me. I'm going to do,
right yeah, no kidding.
Speaker 4 (03:24):
Here's a little infotainment for you on what we can
look for tonight.
Speaker 6 (03:28):
Here's what to expect as being wait for the results.
Forty three states can begin processing absentee and mail in
ballots before election day. This typically involves verify the voter's
information and eligibility and then opening the envelopes who it
can be tabulated by a voting machine. Washington, DC, and
seven states including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin don't begin these steps
until today, so just keep that in mind.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
Yeah, that slows things down the states that don't start
till today.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
More on that now, ask.
Speaker 6 (03:55):
For the count Fourteen states and DC do not allow
counting until the polls close. Oo Twenty three states allow
counting to begin before the polls close. However, different states
have different laws. In North Carolina, for instance, in person
early votes can't be counted before the polls close, but
mail absentee ballots received before election day can be tabulated.
(04:16):
In Georgia, election officials can begin working on early in
person votes when the polls open, but they can't tabulate
them until the polls close.
Speaker 7 (04:24):
And then.
Speaker 6 (04:24):
Finally, twelve states allow both processing and counting to begin
before election day. This is the case in Nevada and Arizona.
Officials from Aricopa County, Arizona's most populous county, expect to
report fifty five percent of the total vote and seventy
to seventy five percent of early ballots by the time
poles close.
Speaker 5 (04:43):
All right, the entire audience's eyes glazed over eight seconds
into that and realized, I'm never going to comprehend, much
less memorise all of your problaration. I will tell you
this two interesting things.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
Number One, to something like two thirds of the population
of Arizona is in Maricopa County. It's like everybody practically
in the county that includes Phoenix. Secondly, this list of
the states.
Speaker 5 (05:06):
That matter, the states that it all hinges upon Pennsylvania.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
Excellent point. I would say to any journalists out there,
any talk about polls closing or anything like that in
anything other than the seven swing states is worthless information.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
Forty three states do this, in seventeen states do that.
Speaker 5 (05:24):
On the other hand, half of those seventeen and triple
the number of the other thirty four who this that
nobody can.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Come only matters in six to seven states.
Speaker 5 (05:33):
So, for example, Pennsylvania last time around, when it was
quite close. Biden declared victory after the AP called Pennsylvania
three and a half days later.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
And it's likely.
Speaker 5 (05:50):
Because of Pennsylvania's various vote counting procedures that it'll take
a while to know. Well, Godor Shapiro says, they've cleaned
that up a lot, they get I hope that's true.
They got a lot more employees, they've got a better method. Yeah, Arizona.
And it's funny because so many of the swing states
have various wrinkles in their voting laws that tend to
(06:10):
make it a longer process to figure out who won.
Arizona permits election officials to begin processing mail in ballots
after early voting begins, but crucially requires officials to wait
until after the polls closed to count them. During the
twenty two mid terms, some twenty percent of mail in
votes were dropped off on election day, requiring time consuming
(06:30):
verification procedures to ensure the ballots were legit Well, one
of the.
Speaker 4 (06:36):
Problems with comparing anything to twenty twenty is we're in
the midst of the worst pandemic in a century, and
things were very weird.
Speaker 5 (06:43):
Yeah, that was twenty two for the record, but yes,
that is absolutely valid, they mentioned, and again some of
the states have cleaned up their acts. But just for instance,
it took three and a half days to Can't to
call Pennsylvania, it took six sixteen days to call Georgia,
it took ten days to call North Carolina, and it
(07:06):
took eight days to call Alaska.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
Nobody cares about Alaska.
Speaker 5 (07:10):
Now Alaskan's care about I care about Alaska, But electorally speaking,
let's talk about Moose.
Speaker 4 (07:16):
Just more interesting, just for all the punditry I take in.
I think we're gonna get a result tonight, especially if
you're a West coast since it's you know, it might
be one or two in the morning if you're on
the East coast. But I think we're gonna get a
result tonight, either like a solid result or a we
know how it's gonna turn out. They can't call it
because statistically you could catch up, but very unlikely.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
I think we'll know. I just I think that's the
way it's gonna break. I hope you're right. I think
that would be much better for the country, no doubt
about that. And then just wanted to speak to and
this is.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
One value out of hearing that long list of how
everybody does it, including states that we know how they're
gonna vote. There's an argument always from a certain crowd
of why don't we make this more uniform. Well, the
fact that it's so not uniform is one of the
reasons it's so difficult to rig an election in this country.
Every precinct, every county, every state has such a different
way of doing things.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
It would be really, really hard to rig a national election.
Which is good and you're absolutely right.
Speaker 5 (08:16):
We are listing some of the horrific policies of Kamala
and the left last hour, including packing the Supreme Court,
ending the filibuster, throwing the borders open.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
I mean, the list goes on and on.
Speaker 5 (08:28):
We left out, We left out the fact that they
want to nationalize all election procedures and controls, which is
a horrible idea. And boy, the party that's in favor
of ballot harvesting and spreading ballots willy nilly across the
land and voting for six months and all, they also
(08:49):
want to control the process from DC.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
That's so interesting.
Speaker 4 (08:55):
There's a slim possibility that Kamala Harris win the.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
Electoral College and loses the popular vote.
Speaker 4 (09:04):
Very slim, but it could happen, which would be fun
because everybody would flip their scripts on whether or not
they support the electoral college versus the popular vote.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
That would be hilarious to watch.
Speaker 5 (09:17):
And again, I'm sorry, Michael, Michael, give me fifty two again.
Enjoy today the election day, especially for this reason.
Speaker 8 (09:25):
If we don't show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible. No,
it's not that we will not have the opportunity to
ever cast a ballot.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
Again, that's dumb. Okay. God is the last American election.
According to Oprah Winfrey, it Republicans prevails.
Speaker 4 (09:44):
So I respect her more if she's pandering than if
she actually believes that.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
God.
Speaker 5 (09:51):
I just saw ABC's Yeah, I'd rather deal with a
liar than a lunatic.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (09:55):
ABC's headline was after the shortest election in US history
or campaigns, which is technically true, But did it feel
that way to anybody?
Speaker 8 (10:06):
Now?
Speaker 2 (10:08):
Boy? Let me up, I've had enough. Okay.
Speaker 5 (10:11):
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Speaker 2 (11:17):
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Speaker 4 (11:19):
If you want celebrities saying things that are almost certainly
not true and hyperbole on the closing moments of Silly Season.
Elon Musk was on Joe Rogan yesterday and said, if
Kamala Harris wins, she will shut down Twitter.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
I don't think that's true.
Speaker 4 (11:35):
But the important thing out of that conversation was Joe
Rogan endorsed Donald Trump. That endorsement, if any matter, is
miles more important than whether or not the Washington Post
is endorsed Kamala Harris. Oh yeah, yeah, monumentally more important
in terms of undecided working class people out there who
(11:57):
listen to Joe Rogan. Absolute freaking lutely, that's more important.
Didn't get near the attention as whether the Washington Post
endorsed or not, or when j Lo comes out and
makes an endorsement.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
Are you crazy, Joe? Honesty?
Speaker 5 (12:09):
Taylor Swift's endorsement was more important than the Washington Post.
Oh absolutely, absolutely, that got enormous attention.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
It's funny the contrast between the attention paid to the
two endorsements, isn't it? It's odd? This is something going
on here.
Speaker 4 (12:21):
We got an interesting question for our old friend lanhie
Chin coming up a little later this hour. Give us
a handful of reasons why each candidate could win, or
if they won, why they won, which I think will
be interesting from a super smart guy, among other things.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
On the way, art, heyety, I I don't feel any
different from when I was sixteen.
Speaker 2 (12:43):
I still think.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
About boys, and I still hate my hair.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
You know that has not changed.
Speaker 1 (12:49):
You know what the big difference is. Tell us I
can say no, and younger people are so access to please.
Oh yes, I can do that. Oh sure I want that.
Oh yes, that's a good idea. I've learned to say
I'm sorry. That doesn't really work for me. I've never
been able to say that.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Ever.
Speaker 4 (13:08):
That's an eighty five year old explaining what it's like
to be eighty five versus when she was younger. She
still thinks about boys, hates her hair, but now can
say no to things.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
Hmm, excellent. Here's the personal growth coming up? Coming up?
Speaker 5 (13:23):
Could California elect Donald Trump?
Speaker 2 (13:26):
What? I know?
Speaker 5 (13:28):
It's an odd question. It's a bit of a trick question.
And speaking of could this or that, could a monkey,
given infinite time rite Shakespeare's complete works before the universe
dives dies? Okay, so that's a long running conundrum. You know,
the whole infinite number of monkeys on an infinite number
(13:49):
of typewriters, given an infinite time, would eventually produce the
complete works of Shakespeare.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
I don't think I've ever bought that. So this is
answering the question. Well, yeah, although.
Speaker 5 (13:59):
This one went with it's a variation of that, the
infinite monkey theorem that given infinite time, could a monkey
produce the works of Shakespeare?
Speaker 4 (14:10):
I suppose technically, if you've got infinite time, you can't
say no to anything.
Speaker 5 (14:15):
Well, right, but that's if that is like a groovy
and funny way to explain what infinity is to somebody. Okay, great,
but no, no, damn monkeys are going to produce the
works of Shay. Can you imagine? And the first time
I heard that, I said, I'm not buying that. No,
not happening.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Can you imagine?
Speaker 5 (14:37):
You get like to the I don't remember the last
thing Shakespeare wrote, but you.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Get to the end and like on the last page,
there's a typo.
Speaker 4 (14:42):
Oh yeah, that's the great Simpsons joke where mister Burns
walks in a room full of monkeys at typewriters and
he pulls a piece of paper out at one of
the monkeys typewriters and he reads it was the best
of times.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
It was the blurst of times.
Speaker 5 (14:56):
He's angry because a monkey's had a typo right, hilarious.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
So they were able to type literature. They just made
a mistake on one word, and he was angry. Also
read three search.
Speaker 4 (15:11):
I just was looking at this schedule. Both candidates have
huge schedules today, radio interviews, rallies, appearances, So they must think,
you know, I supposed to make sense if half the
votes have already been cast, half the votes haven't, but
boy she got half.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
Then the tiny amount that could be persuaded by one
more radio interview or rally, which has got to be
a tiny number.
Speaker 5 (15:41):
Yeah, oh yeah, absolutely. I just think everybody's thinking about
twenty twenty. We're a vanishingly small number of votes decide
the election. But I happened to know a person who
was absolutely determined to vote. Uh, but they are perhaps
attending a graduate school that's somewhat distant from their home
address and was gonna have to track and then decided
(16:02):
not to, then decided to again, or maybe you got to.
You're a truck driver and your route gets all screwed
up and you're gonna get home late anyway, and you're thinking,
I don't know, I'm just one vote.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
They're just trying to get.
Speaker 5 (16:14):
That last tiny squeeze, that last drop of turnout.
Speaker 4 (16:20):
Sure, got a sick kid at home today. You know,
you can be planning to do something, the kids sick,
and you think, yeah, I just got too much going on.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
It can happen unless there's just that one little tweak.
Do you want to hear?
Speaker 5 (16:30):
The California thing is long we're talking about this could
California elect Donald Trump? It's from the Wall Street Journal
editorial board. There has been so much outflow of people
from California, New York and Illinois that it might swing
(16:50):
the election for Donald Trump. What it's plausible that the
population flight from those states to some of this year's
electoral battlegrounds could help Trump win a second term. And
they mention it's not only that a lot of conservative
to moderate people have left the Blue states but population
shifts in the twenty tens reduced the Democrats advantage in
(17:10):
the electoral college. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
and West Virginia each lost a vote in the electoral
college because they lost a rep in the House of Representatives.
Texas picked up two. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and
Oregon each added one. And they go through a bunch
of scenarios where Kamala Harris starts the count with a
(17:34):
built in lead that's three votes smaller than Joe Biden's
in twenty twenty, the sure blue states are three electoral
votes fewer than they were, and they run through various
scenarios where if she won a fairly predictable slate of states,
she'd be two electoral votes short just because of the
change in population over the last decade.
Speaker 4 (17:54):
Man, I'm taking in some of the cable news channel media,
just through highlights and stuff like that. Democrat panels seem
a little panicked. I don't know what insider information they have,
but there it looks like there's some finger pointing going on.
We're gonna talk to Lennie jen about the election coming
up stay with us.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Are strong and getty.
Speaker 9 (18:14):
You say, Kamala, you're horrible at your job. You don't
know what you're doing. You're a low IQ individual. We
want smart people, we want cunning people. We're dealing with
the smartest people in the world. We don't want your
negotiating nuclear deals because you don't want there.
Speaker 10 (18:31):
You don't know what the word nuclear means. Kamala, Yeah fired,
Get the hell out of here.
Speaker 2 (18:39):
I ask you one last time. Are you ready to
make your voices heard? Do we believe in freedom? Do
we believe in opportunity?
Speaker 8 (18:55):
Do we believe in the promise of America?
Speaker 11 (19:01):
Wait? Running to find.
Speaker 12 (19:05):
Yeah? Bless what could be better after hearing from our
two sterling candidates than Lady Gaga lifting her voice in.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Saul turn it Up? Michael standy side. Oh boy, I
just saw Why am I? What have I done that
I'm being punished like this? I just saw Van Jones off.
Speaker 7 (19:32):
I can't stand it.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
I just saw Van Jones on CNN saying I don't
think closing with all the celebrities was a good idea.
The difference is working class, blue collar people Michigan, Wisconsin
and Pennsylvania. I don't think Lady Gaga and all these celebrities.
Was a good idea that's from Van Jones, which I
think is interesting.
Speaker 2 (19:49):
Hmmm, he's a serious man. Speaking of serious men.
Speaker 5 (19:52):
Please welcome lon each end of the show, Lonie David
and Diane Staffy, Fellow in American Public Policy Studies at
the Hoover Institution and the Director of Domestic Policy Studies
at Stanford University.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
Lon Hey, greetings, how.
Speaker 7 (20:03):
Are you Happy election day?
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Gentlemen?
Speaker 5 (20:06):
Thank you, thank you, just just taking off on what
we were just talking about, like saying happy surgery days.
Speaker 11 (20:13):
I guess everyone's ready. Everyone's ready, much like the surgery
for it to be done well.
Speaker 4 (20:20):
And what's going to be done. The voting is going
to be done. We certainly aren't done with fighting over
the results and then the policy decisions that are coming
with either of these two candidates.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
That could be something right.
Speaker 11 (20:32):
Yeah, I mean unfortunately, because you know, you look at
California as an example, how long it takes us to
count ballots. You know, we probably won't have a result
in some of these really close congressional races for even
a couple of weeks. And then of course there's all
the discussion about what will happen in the new Congress
and the new administration, and that doesn't happen till January,
so it is an extended conversation. You wish that we
(20:53):
could have a system of slightly more efficient vote counting
and that people had a lot of faith and trust in,
but this is where we're at, you know, this is
the system we have, and I think it is going
to be a little bit before we get a result.
Speaker 5 (21:06):
You know, I hadn't intended to talk about this, but
as long as you brought it up. I saw a
piece in the Journal not long ago that Democrats make
California a battleground state, talking about how there are several
important congressional races that used to be pretty easy to
call blue, but there's been a certain amount of backlash
in California.
Speaker 11 (21:24):
Yeah, and actually, you know, amongst the folks listening to
the show, you've got people who are in these really
important targeted districts, and they go all the way up
and down the state. So in the Central Valley, you've
got one that's near Stockton that picks up a good
part of San Joaquin County, just a sliver of Contra
Costa County and runs a little bit south from there,
(21:47):
you've got one in the Central Valley, two in the
Central Valley. Actually, then you go down to Orange County
and you've got several down there that are important, including
one that extends into northern San Diego County. So there
are actually, I would say probably five or six really
competitive congressional districts that Republicans have not just a decent
(22:07):
shot in, but probably should win at least a number
of them. So it does really argue against the notion
of blue hegemony in California. I think these seats are
actually really important to determining control of Congress, and that's
why it's really important for folks to vote.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
Yeah, that'd be good for America in my opinion.
Speaker 4 (22:26):
So speaking of America in the national race, Harris versus Trump,
give us if Harris wins, she ends up being the winner.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
What are the three reasons she won? Wow? Great?
Speaker 7 (22:36):
Question.
Speaker 11 (22:38):
Number one is that she's able to reassemble key elements
of I guess what she'd call the Obama Coalition, and
that's you know, union members, that's African American voters, that's
Hispanic voters, and it's suburban whites. And if she's able
(22:59):
to win, it's going to be because that coalition has
essentially come back together.
Speaker 7 (23:04):
That'd be number one. Number two, she's able to activate women.
Speaker 11 (23:09):
And this is the great unanswered question we have as
we sit here at seven thirty am Pacific. How many
women are going to vote and how are they going
to vote? If the if you look at American politics,
the two biggest predictors of how someone's going to vote
are their gender and their education level. And if you
if you look at an elector tonight that is overwhelmingly
(23:32):
female versus male, that will give you some indication that
she's doing either better than expected or certainly online with
the expectations to make this a very close race. And
then the last thing I'll just say is the abortion issue.
This is something that caused the twenty twenty two elections
to turn out the way they did, And what I
mean by that is that this so called red wave
(23:53):
we were expecting really never materialized in the way that
we thought it would because there was so much backlash
and ways to that decision the Supreme Court to overturn
Roe versus Wade. If she's winning or if she wins
this election, it will be because that issue activated key
voters in key states, and it doesn't show up as
(24:14):
a top issue necessarily compared to the economy and immigration,
but it is a top issue for some of those
voters I talked about earlier, part of the Obama coalition,
a lot of the women voters that may show up
to support her, Those will be the three reasons why
she wins.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
Well, I think you just tipped your hand. What are
the three reasons if Trump ends up the victor that
he won?
Speaker 10 (24:33):
Well?
Speaker 11 (24:33):
Number one, you know, I mean the flip side of
that is his ability to create a coalition that's unlike
any other Republican has created before, and that means driving
up margins, particularly with urban voters.
Speaker 7 (24:47):
We've talked a little.
Speaker 11 (24:48):
Bit about the way in which he's managed to erode
the Democrat advantage on black voters and on Hispanic voters.
Speaker 7 (24:56):
If that really does end.
Speaker 11 (24:57):
Up being true, that'll go a long way toward explaining
a Trump success. The second thing I would say is
it's his ability to activate white working class voters who
don't traditionally vote. We call them low propensity voters, but
you're talking about folks who don't make a habit of
going to the ballot box. These are people who might
(25:17):
only vote for Donald Trump and not for anybody else.
And that's why a lot of these Senate candidates who
are Republicans, even in these swing states, are going to
have issues potentially even if Trump wins, He's got to
win by a lot for them to get across the
finish line in some cases. But it is really about
how he's able potentially to activate these voters. And then
the last thing is just the issue focus. If we
(25:37):
look at exit polling tonight, and by far the key
issues that voters are keying in on are at the
economy and immigration, it could be a very good night
for Donald Trump.
Speaker 5 (25:46):
Hey, this can be a very very brief answer if
you want, how are you setting yourself up emotionally for that?
How long is it going to take booze figure out
who's won?
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Booze? Is the answer? Yes? How about that? That's going
to take?
Speaker 7 (26:00):
That is the answer?
Speaker 5 (26:02):
Or is that impossible to say? And if it's impossible,
it's fine.
Speaker 11 (26:06):
Well, you know, look, I think if the polls and
the estimates are right, it is going to take us
at least a few days to resolve some of these states. Now, look,
there's a probability, there's a possibility that this isn't close
at all. I mean, if we look and we see,
for example, that Kamala Harris is competitive in North Carolina,
(26:27):
and by competitive I mean she's either ahead or within
striking distance. The same goes for Georgia, this could be
over very quickly for her. On the flip side of it,
if we see that Donald Trump's margins in Pennsylvania are
much more significant than we would have expected coming from
the early vote, and that she is not making up
enough ground in the urban core of Philadelphia, it could
(26:49):
be over.
Speaker 7 (26:50):
Very early for Donald Trump tonight. So here's what I
would say.
Speaker 11 (26:55):
I'd say probably a sixty percent likelihood that this goes
into tomorrow or beyond, no, maybe seventy percent, and then
there's a thirty percent likelihood that either Trump or Harris
is declared the winner overnight tonight.
Speaker 5 (27:10):
So going from I want a short answer to this,
one can be book length. In fact, if you'd like
to talk to the show Wow, we will just tell
you when to break for commercials and listen. But you know,
it's been said that a loss can be a gift
in a way because you can reassess and reinvent your
party and go forward to greater success in the future,
(27:32):
abandon some of the bad habits that drag you down.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
Each party if they lose, what is.
Speaker 5 (27:39):
The big change you think they should make and feel
free to throw in whether you think they're smart or
self aware enough.
Speaker 2 (27:45):
To do it.
Speaker 7 (27:47):
Well, let's start with the Democrats.
Speaker 11 (27:49):
I think it is really important for them to understand
that the excesses of the last few years on a
whole set of issues, whether I would call them cultural
issues or economics in terms of using stuff like the
Inflation Reduction Act, massive increases in spending. The combination of
(28:09):
that excess has driven them into a position in many
states where they just aren't as competitive as they used
to be. The old kind of working class union base
of the Democratic Party has been eroded in many states,
and that's because they have simply gone too far. And
if you ask voters in a lot of places, they'll
tell you that they think that the progressive excesses of
(28:30):
the Democratic Party are what have turned them off and
have ultimately made them support Donald Trump, who made them So.
Speaker 4 (28:37):
Are you trying to tell me that the average guy
that works in the machine shop is not down with
the termal of TX.
Speaker 11 (28:43):
Well, I mean, that's that's a great example. That's a
great example. And it's not even the term. It's being
made to feel badly that you don't use the term,
or being made to feel badly that you don't adhere
to a certain orthodoxy. And I think that that excess
on the left has really cost them electorally in many
of these places we're talking about.
Speaker 7 (29:03):
Whether it's in so again, I.
Speaker 5 (29:05):
Don't have a PhD, but you're suggesting that never ending
judgment and condensation, condescension rather starts to wear on people.
Speaker 7 (29:14):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean, I know it's crazy.
Speaker 11 (29:16):
It's crazy, right, I mean, we we we we all
love a good lecture.
Speaker 7 (29:19):
I guess what.
Speaker 11 (29:20):
About the Republicans, you know there, I think it will be.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
Don't nominate Trump again?
Speaker 11 (29:26):
Well, I know, I mean I think that that that
they may be part of it is, but but I
think the other part of it is there. There does
need to be a little bit of a re examination
because I think that over the last couple of years
there are issues on which Democrats and Republicans have actually converged.
And one of those I've mentioned already, which is really
leaning in on a bigger role for the federal government,
(29:47):
and that includes on on spending, it includes on uh,
you know, on on abortion rights, for example. There's been
some conversation about this as well, but the basic point
is that if you look at the nineteen eighties and
nineteen nineties, there was a contrast, a pretty clear contrast
in terms of the role of government, in terms of
the way in which Republicans and Democrats approached it, approach
(30:12):
certain economic questions, et cetera.
Speaker 7 (30:14):
And there was a contrast.
Speaker 11 (30:16):
And over the last couple of years some of that
contrast I think has arguably eroded, and I think Republicans
have to figure out again, are there elements of that
let's call it traditional approach to economic policy, for.
Speaker 7 (30:27):
Example, that need to be renovated.
Speaker 11 (30:30):
I mean, aside from the Trump question, which I think
is obviously the big lingering eight hundred pound gorilla, if
you will, which is to what degree was it a
function of nominating him? I think there will be some
conversation about that, But there's a bigger issue that goes
well beyond Trump, which is what doesn't mean to be
a Republican? I mean, like, what does that actually mean anymore?
And I think there's been, aside from being the Party
(30:51):
of Trump, which is what it's been for the last
better part of eight years. Now, I think people will
need to really sit back and say, hey, you know,
do we have a viable center right conservative movement in
this country and what does it look like in contrast
to what the Democrats are proposing.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
Lani Chen, who I believe the stat is right.
Speaker 4 (31:08):
You got more Republican votes in twenty twenty two than
anybody in the country.
Speaker 11 (31:14):
More votes, Yeah, more including Versantis, that's correct.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Which is amazing.
Speaker 4 (31:20):
Yeah, and unfortunately he lost because California is a communist state.
Speaker 5 (31:24):
Correct, you said it, not me right, one party kleptocracy.
Lani Chen of the Hoover Institution in Stanford University.
Speaker 2 (31:32):
We look forward to chatting with you post election. Lani.
It makes sense of the.
Speaker 11 (31:36):
Mess absolutely, And if you haven't voted yet, get out
there and vote today.
Speaker 2 (31:40):
Cool. That is.
Speaker 4 (31:41):
That is an amazing stat because Ron de Santis won
by like twenty points in a very large state. He
still didn't get him any as many votes as Lanhi
Chen got. And Lani Chen was endorsed by what the
La Times, the San Francisco Chronicle. I mean everybody needs still.
Speaker 5 (31:55):
Major publication website in California, the scratch Still the politics
are so stupid that there were so many people that
just could not vote for an R under any circumstances.
Speaker 4 (32:05):
And just you know, I hope we moved past that
at some point. I mean, just as a nation, not
even California, and the well.
Speaker 5 (32:12):
California is unique, and that the order came down from
all the public employee unions.
Speaker 2 (32:16):
Yeah whatever, vote D and.
Speaker 5 (32:18):
They voted D so and nominated half a crook and
half a moron or elected rather.
Speaker 4 (32:23):
One of the most respected posters American, Nate Silver, ran
his simulator last night with all the polls in eighty
thousand times eighty thousand simulations.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
How did it turn out? Who won?
Speaker 4 (32:36):
We'll hit you with that, among other things on the way.
Speaker 10 (32:41):
I mean, Nancy Pelosi, she's a crooked person. She is
a bad person, evil, she's an evil, sick crazy.
Speaker 1 (32:50):
Bit.
Speaker 10 (32:51):
Oh no, it starts with it B. But I won't
say it.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
Wow, I want to say it.
Speaker 10 (33:10):
I want to say but Franklin Graham said, sir, I
love your speaking ability, and I love your storytelling, but honestly,
it would be even better if you wouldn't use foul language,
and I don't use much, you know, every once in
a while, and it's never a real bad word. It's
you know, it's like never bad and so I try
(33:31):
to it here. But he's wrong about one thing. It
is a little better when you use the foul language
because it's more actress.
Speaker 4 (33:40):
So either wing either Today is kind of the end
of the whole Trump thing after nearly a decade or
four more years as president of the most powerful nation
on earth.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
And we'll see in Islan.
Speaker 5 (33:56):
He was hinting at at least what does the Republican
Party look like without Trump?
Speaker 2 (34:02):
Good question. Nobody knows the answer to that. What's its platform?
Speaker 10 (34:05):
So?
Speaker 2 (34:05):
How interested are people in the election?
Speaker 4 (34:08):
I came across this yesterday to help booster my willingness
to talk about this. What percentage of people rate their
interest in the election at a nine out of ten
or higher? So nine out of ten or ten out
of ten, And it's about eighty percent of people. And
I gotta believe of people listening to the show or
(34:29):
taking in podcasts or talk radio or whatever, you're in
that crowd. But eighty percent of people rate it as
a nine or ten Their level of interest. That is something.
Speaker 5 (34:40):
So I want to be surprised to hear that, honestly,
given the spectacular turnout across the country in early voting.
Speaker 2 (34:45):
Yeah so, Nate.
Speaker 4 (34:50):
Silver is one of the more respected pollsters in America.
He ran his final simulation after midnight last night of
how he thought it was going to turn out. He
plugs in all the poles and all the waiting, and
he's got his own methodology, which I don't think he
shares all of it.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
And the Chiefs beat the Eagles twenty seven to twenty
What does that mean? They run the computer simulations eighty
thousand times before the Super Bowl too?
Speaker 4 (35:22):
Oh okay, gotcha, So maddens thing. He ran his simulation
eighty thousand times. What's interesting about this to me is
with all the polling plugged in and everything like that,
Harris won forty thousand and twelve eighty thousand times. He
ran the whole simulation. She won twelve more times than Trump.
Speaker 2 (35:43):
So there you have it. It's pretty close. Apparently.
Speaker 5 (35:47):
Oh, I feel like the gods are mocking us or something.
There were punished, right, punished or something.
Speaker 4 (35:53):
I don't even know, as we've been saying it doesn't
seem like if your goal was to get the country
fifty to fifty, you could get this close possible.
Speaker 5 (36:00):
Oh no, no, no, back to an infinite number of
monkeys on an infinite number of typewriters know, an infinite
number of political operatives with an infinite amount of cash
could not produce an election this close.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
Yeah, I was just looking up at cable news channels.
Speaker 4 (36:14):
I observed something worth commenting on, among other things, we'd
like to hear your texts too and emails.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
Stay with us, Armstrong and Getty
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Jack Armstrong
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