March 4, 2025 • 35 mins
Hour 2 of A&G features...
- Tariffs: Good or bad idea?
- How much more will Americans pay after tariffs?
- Real ID deadline & Dolly Parton's husband passes away
- You can't reform humanity
Stupid Should Hurt: https://www.armstrongandgetty.com/
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio, the George
Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty arm Strong
and Jetty and he Armstrong and Yetty.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Moments after President Trump announced his tariffs against Canada, Mexico,
and China, we saw quite a tumble on the Stock Exchange,
the now closing down more than six hundred, almost six
hundred and fifty points as economist sound the alarm that
these tariffs are going to be passed on to the
American consumer with the prices of cars, electronics, and shoes
expected to go up.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Okay, So midnight last night the twenty five percent tariffs
on Mexico and Canada took took effect, and then the
extra tariffs on China, which again, as we kept saying,
keep saying, is a different topic, a different a different war.
But first of all, I just went to the vending
machine to get an avocado like I do every day
on the show forty seven like an apple.
Speaker 1 (01:03):
Yeah, forty seven dollars for an avocado.
Speaker 3 (01:05):
Because of the terrified last night, I want to, as
a free speech guy, ban all media outlets from ever
using the stock market going up or down in an
hour or a day as evidence of anything. I just
that's just a ridiculous way to look at anything. Really
is someone has already your four oh one k's have
(01:27):
taken a hit because of the or already Americans are
rejoicing because the stock market has gone. You can't draw
any conclusions in one day or one hour or one
afternoon of stock market reactions.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
You just can't.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
The great original sin of that was when Trump was
first elected and the Trump stock plunge or whatever they
called it, and had it completely turned around by noon
the next day. But it's funny they were very busy
that second day and couldn't report that turnaround. Now, having
said that, I will tell you this. I think it's important.
It's an important amble the discussion that will follow. While
(02:02):
you talk, I'll munch on my forty seven dollars avocado.
Savor that thing, man, say every bite, roll it around
in your mush.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
All right, here's the deal.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
We neither cheerlead every single thing Trump does, nor do
we hammer him for everything he does. Like most of
the media these days, which are very very tribal, we
just try to figure out what's actually going on and
form an idea of how things are going to work
and affect you in your lives. If you are not
(02:34):
into that, if you would rather have the aforementioned constant
bashing or praising, we wish you well certainly in your
future endeavors. Anyway, Having said that, I want more than
anything for the economy to be good, of course, for
my retirement savings to hold up, for inflation to be
under control, for the housing market to become more normal.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
And the rest of it.
Speaker 4 (02:59):
But I am I'm worried about this tariff thing, especially
if it lasts for a while.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
It doesn't make sense to me on a lot of levels.
Speaker 4 (03:10):
And as Jack said, the China thing, China engages in
communist finance, dumping of goods across the globe to try
to drive global competition unfairly out of business, and then
they will stand astride the globe as the manufacturing colossus,
and we will all have to kiss their asses. I
despise China and the Communist Party. I despise what they're doing.
(03:32):
There should be stiff tariffs against them. We should uncouple
from them as quickly as we can. China's over there.
The Canada Mexico thing, the justification for the high tariffs
against two of our biggest trading partners and neighbors. Is
that we have a national emergency. Fentanyl killing six figures
(03:53):
worth of Americans. That's a pretty good emergency. And immigration,
millions of people flowing in, sucking up services, many of
them criminals, lawlessness in general.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
All right, I'll give you that.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
The problem, though, is that the percentage of fentanyl and
I had these numbers a week ago, but the percentage
of fentanyl that comes in over the Canadian border is
practically none of it. And likewise, the illegal immigrants the
Canadian border is just a tiny, tiny fraction of you know,
(04:26):
the problem. And the amount of American manufacturing that's flowed
to Canada after the two big trade deals, the Clinton
Deal and then when it was updated and Trump negotiated
blah blah blah. The amount of American manufacturing that's flown
into Mexico is fairly significant, but to Canada it's practically none.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
So okay.
Speaker 4 (04:47):
So you've got that, and then you've got the fact
that this will inevitably, and Trump has recently admitted, this
cause pain in the pocketbook for Americans. It will raise
prices on a surprising array of things, especially because the
manufacturers that are still here need steal and aluminum, for instance,
or a lumber. We're about to start a remodel project,
(05:09):
and I just see that price taggling up, up, up.
As you know, Canadian imports get twenty five percent more expensive.
Maybe I just I think this is a huge gamble
on one of the two issues that got Trump elected.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
The border doing great, fantastic.
Speaker 4 (05:25):
I mean, they're hiccups, but of course there are going
to be hiccups and the economy, specifically inflation. And if
this screws up the economy and inflation, and the good,
solid working class people of America who've really been struggling
because globalism has left them behind, if they get hammered
again by this, it's going to be really really bad
for Republicans.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
So the President of Mexico, whose name sounds like she's
the president of the prime Minister of Israel, as opposed
to the Prime Minister of Great Britain, whose name sounds
like he's the Prime Minister of Germany, they all.
Speaker 4 (05:58):
Got to get same, Like he's the bad guy in
a non movie Kirs Starmer. I want everybody to get
names that sounds like the country they're from just so here.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
For me, it's not at all bigoted. That's fine. Well
it's been going min and Baum.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
Your new last name is Gomez to make Jack more comfortable.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
Yes, once I.
Speaker 3 (06:16):
Have spent most of my life you can count on
people's names sounded like.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
The country they're from, folks. This is the ugly American
that people speak of right here.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
But the president of Mexico has said that there will
be retaliation from Mexico to these twenty five percent tariffs
taking effect today.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
I don't know what Justin trud is doing.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
He's probably as soon as he gets out of ballet class,
he'll probably take a look at how they're going to
handle it.
Speaker 4 (06:43):
Well, he's getting his hair frosted today, so it's going
to be at least new until he respond. On the
other hand, on the other hand, and this bothers me too,
I love Trump mocking Justin Trudeau. Obviously we're not against
that around here, but he's gone so hardcore at Canada
(07:06):
and mocking Canada itself and then the tariffs and very
you know, declaring it a state and all.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
He is really fired up.
Speaker 4 (07:17):
Canadian patriotism and really really hurt the conservative guy Poliev,
who was looking so good going into the federal elections
which are coming up soon. Who knows how the way
they run elections in Canada, nobody can keep track, but
one poll show that fourign ten Americans see Polliev and
(07:38):
Trump is alike in that hurting him. As Canadians increasingly
associated Poliev to Trump's negative rhetoric aimed at Canada, he
is undermining. Trump is undermining a switch to sanity and
toughness in Canada because Canadians are so pissed off about
what Trump is saying. Interesting, yeah, yeah, might be a miscalculation,
(08:05):
who knows.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
I found this very interesting.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
You'd hate to see old black face Trudeau's party do
good just because of that.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
Oh yeah, oh that would be galling. I mean, it's
their election, they could do whatever they want. But man,
I was excited about Pauliev having a chance to come in.
Remember he's the apple munching hard ass. It was you know,
John with that reporter and one of our favorite clips
of last year. It's just terrific.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
All right.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
So here's I found this very very interesting. Of course
I'm a geek. How will the tariffs, if they last,
actually affect prices in the country, don't want to rush
through it.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
Why don't we take a break.
Speaker 4 (08:46):
I promise you'll find this interesting too, if you don't
write a strongly.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
Worded email to us.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Hey, Jades, looks you like the popes on his way out.
Speaker 4 (09:00):
If they had betting, Like what's the big betting market
that everybody talks about these days? It's not predicted, it's
the other one that's like offshore bet on whether the
pope's gonna die. That seems to say, if you could,
I don't think that would be a bad wager. Now,
he's a very old man. He's been fighting ammonia. They're
(09:21):
helping him breathe.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
Respiratory crisis is yesterday and using a tube proxygen. You know,
if you got an old relative that age, and you'd
think I might want to get close.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
Yeah, you're not gonna say, I'll go see him in October.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
So then we're going to go through the whole thing
with the white smoke and picking a new pope.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
And I'm about as interested in that as I am
in the oscars.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
Joe's me when it's over, Joe's gonna explain tariffs and
all that coming up next day.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
Here Barmstrong.
Speaker 5 (09:52):
Tariffs can bring good paying jobs back here to the
United States of America. They protect critical industries here at home,
and President Trump is serious when he says he wants
to make America the manufacturing superpower of the world, and
we have the ability to do it. We have the
best resources and the best people, but unfortunately we've been
ruled by a political class that has sold us out
(10:13):
for far too long.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
That's the White House press person or spokesperson. On Hannity
last night with the best spin on the tariffs, Mary
Catherine Ham, who you regularly see on Fox and has
pretty Trump friendly, said if it were me and I'd
inherited a soft economy at best and promise people to
address their cost of living issues, I wouldn't.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
Do the one giant obvious thing.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
That would risk price hikes and also make it easy
to pin any outcome on me.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
That's fry.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
I agree with Mary Catherine completely Someone on the right,
Caroline Levitt in what she said was fifty percent right
and fifty percent completely wrong.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
But she's there as an advocate and a litigator.
Speaker 4 (10:51):
I get it, but it was way way sunshiny. Just
to answer her very quickly, there isn't time to seriously
revive some of the American manufacturing.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
I wish it were more doable in a lot of ways.
Speaker 4 (11:07):
I don't hate the idea, but you just Trump has
three and a half years left. Unless it's like a
JD vance gets selected and Congress goes along with this stuff.
You know, revitalizing American manufacturing is going to take a
long time, and the idea that will be the manufacturing
leader of the world, that is completely impossible. Our wages
(11:28):
are too high, It'll never happen. Can we grow it
and improve it and step back from globalism?
Speaker 1 (11:34):
Some yes?
Speaker 4 (11:35):
Some Having said that, I thought this is really interesting
worth getting into. So President Trump is imposing your tariffs
on a range of products and countries. How much will
you pay more? What will that do to inflation? The
answer is not simple, and it's surprisingly hard to answer.
For example, a ten percent tariff on shoes from China
(11:56):
would raise their sticker price four percent. Probably wine or
all of midtly a ten percent tariff would raise it
about ten percent.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Why the difference? Tariffs aren't the only factor at work.
Speaker 4 (12:06):
And I'm going to be quoting the Wall Street Journal
in Moody's that did a big analysis of this currency
changes the availability of alternatives, and the pricing strategies of
producers and importers all play a part. All of this
effects the pass through, which is how much of the
tariff we pay as consumers. So for this analysis they
did the twenty five percent on imports from Canada and Mexico,
(12:30):
ten percent on others, plus the extra tariff on China.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
That's a lot.
Speaker 4 (12:36):
I don't even remember he's piled another ten percent on it.
But the knockoff effects are sometimes not intuitive. For instance,
here's an easy one to understand. Moody's analysis suggests a
ten percent tariff on a tablecloth from India would only
raise the final price two percent, because you can get
a tablecloth anywhere. They're more or less the same, manufactured anywhere.
(13:00):
Nobody cares, particularly where they come from, so they've got
practically no room to raise prices. The same would probably
be true of clothes, spare parts and accessories for cars.
Speaker 1 (13:10):
And some common cosmetics.
Speaker 4 (13:12):
Moving on, higher prices on Italian wine don't drive down
consumption much. If my favorite bottle of wine goes up
ten percent, I'm gonna buy it anyway.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Sellers are more.
Speaker 6 (13:21):
Likely, especially as the second third ones, All sellers are
much more likely to pass through the full ten percent tariff,
betting they won't lose many consumers as a result.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
So Italian wine.
Speaker 4 (13:34):
Is a niche product accounting for a small share of
US total wine consumption, so the total impact on wine
prices is like a third of a percent. But this
example illustrates how tariff's on one product can raise prices
throughout that group. A California wine maker would probably nudge
up her price as well, earning fatter profits. As long
as her new higher price is lower than the tariff alternative,
(13:55):
she might pick up some market share and might.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
As well try it. Wow. The wine wholesaler also plays
a role.
Speaker 4 (14:02):
Faced with a higher import bill for Italian wine thanks
to new tariffs, the wholesaler might decide to raise prices
for alternative wines in his warehouse to compensate for the
lost profit on the Italian stuff. Of course, you might
decide to do the opposite and swallow the lost profit
on the tariff, hoping to grab market share from competitors
who instead pass on the price increase to consumers. But
you're not sure who's going to do what until they
(14:22):
do it. Tariffs are most keenly felt when imported or
domestic alternatives are unavailable or the affected product commands a
significant premium. Even if tariffs raise the price of the
latest iPhone, Apple fans will probably still buy it. Video
Game consoles in their software fall into with similar category.
Video gaming is dominated by handful of players, mainly Nintendo, Sony,
(14:43):
and Microsoft. Many of the physical game consoles are made
in China, and gamers won't just swap in another machine
to keep playing. That gives producers and importers real power
to jack up prices for consumers to offset the pain
of tariffs. The Moody's analysis suggests that nearly all of
the ten percent additional tariff on game come consols from
China would be passed through to consumers, raising the price
(15:03):
of a five hundred dollars machine to five hundred and
forty eight dollars. Oh man, I'm not sure we have
time to talk about cars, but Mexico is the top
foreign supplier of passenger cars and sport utility vehicles in
the US twenty three percent of imports last year. Tariff's
on Mexican made cars would likely mean not just higher
prices for vehicles shipped across the border. But on all
cars is other manufacturers and dealers see a chance to
(15:25):
eke out more profit while gaining market share. Then you've
also got and a lot of folks that brought this up.
It's super interesting when you learn about it. But a
part that ends up in your car in America might
across the US Canadian border three four, five times before
you fire up the engine and drive off the lot.
(15:46):
Really as a simple part becomes part of a mechanism
that's assembled in the US that's then put into a
much more complicated mechanism that's built in Canada than put
back in the car to be assembled in the US
or maybe Mexicans.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
So a piece that goes into a carburetor crosses from
Mexico and the United States, they put it into the carburetor,
send the carburetor to Canada maybe where they're assembling the engine.
The engine comes back across the border into the United States. Yeah,
exactly interesting.
Speaker 4 (16:14):
Yeah, and if there are tariffs every time that happens,
it could be insanely complicated and expensive. And the other
thing we really don't have time to get into, but
it's simple enough to understand is all of these other
countries are imposing retaliatory tariffs which are really going to
hurt American exports, which we're supposedly trying to beef up here,
and it might work in long term. Again, I'm not
(16:35):
an anti Trump knee jerk guy. I'm just highly skeptical
of how well this is going to work. And farmers
are going to take it in the pants because commodity
prices are going to drop as retaliatory tariffs hurt American
farm exports. So this is an enormous gamble by Republicans
in the Trump administration, and I just I don't see
(16:56):
it working out well.
Speaker 1 (16:57):
I hope I'm wrong.
Speaker 3 (16:59):
I realize every car has the fine now, and I'm
not wanting to argue with you about carbretors, just trying
to make a point about how that would work.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
Okay, we got about restraint way stick here, Armstrong and Getty.
Speaker 7 (17:15):
Sixty four days till the government's real ID requirement takes effect,
and flat Latia Say says it has the flexibility.
Speaker 1 (17:22):
To phase in enforcement.
Speaker 7 (17:23):
It is strongly urging anyone planning to fly to have
a real ID or passport by May seventh. To get
a real ID, you'll need to provide an ID or
documentation that includes full legal name, DOB, social Security number,
lawful status, and two proofs of address, which could include
a payroll, stub, rent or mortgage payment.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
Real IDs have a star.
Speaker 7 (17:46):
In the car it's upper corner, while California has a
bear and a star.
Speaker 3 (17:50):
What percentage of people have done this so far? Gotten
their real id's what's funny about this? And remember that
this was passed in the wake of nine eleven to
make sure couldn't get on planes forgotten. It's just it's
like my trying to open the bank account for my
son a couple of weeks ago. No, because of the
Patriot Act, because of nine to eleven, you need to
(18:12):
have his birth certificate to open.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Your son's checking account and saving's account. Are you kidding me? Anyway?
Back to you? Oh, unbelievable.
Speaker 4 (18:20):
Well, I think I have one, but I've lost track.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (18:25):
It's ground on so long and they've there's been so
many postponements and announcements that they retract you.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
When when did you last renew your driver's license? I
have no idea. I have to look, I have to
reach it out my pocket. At who's at the time exactly.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
All I know is like I bought a ticket the
other day for my son's birthday. We're doing something, but
Southwest Ala he says, remember to get your real ID by.
And they've been warning me this for years. And every
time I look at that, I think I can picture
who and you know, Gladys could play the harp. I
can picture what's gonna happen in the future, and I
do it every time I see the warning on Southwest
(19:03):
Airlines make sure you have your real ID by, whatever
data is. I think I'm going to go to the
airport for some big trip. I'm going to get there
and they're going to say we don't take driver's licenses anymore.
We've been warning you for three years and you never.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
Did any of me. I know it's going to happen. Yeah,
I know it's going to happen. Man, Oh, well, what
are you going to do? Well?
Speaker 4 (19:24):
You know Sama bin Laden in the events of twenty
four years ago.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
So this is interesting.
Speaker 4 (19:31):
Dovetailing off of our conversation last segment about tariffs and inflation,
economic risk and that sort of thing. The one thing
and I underemphasize this, and I shouldn't have The one
thing that the business really wants and by extension of
the stock market, is some level of certainty so they
can do planning and investment and there. It's hard to
picture more uncertainty than is going on right now unless
(19:54):
you know China, tax Taiwan or whatever.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
I mean. There's always more.
Speaker 4 (19:58):
But the markets as of when we're speaking now, if
you're listening in the future via podcast, are down about
a percent and a half, all of them. The nasdac's
into correction territory. Of course, it was overheated, and we
don't leap to conclusions based on even a day's worth
of the stock market, but it's they're.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
Rattled, no doubt.
Speaker 4 (20:21):
Although as I look at the chart of the day
so far, it looks like for now the market has
and this is my favorite expression in the stock market, Michael,
do you remember what it is? Come on now, I've
been teaching you this for years, so it's my favorite. No,
that's a good one though, By the dip, by the dip, No,
(20:43):
my favorite expression is the markets appeared to have found
a firm bottom.
Speaker 1 (20:47):
Oh wow, we all like that. Yeah, so they bounce
back a little bit from their lows. But who knows.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
It's early in the trading day, and anyway, markets and
businesses are very rattled. I think this is an enormous
gamble by Trump, and I'm not sure he's gonna win
at it, but we'll all find out together.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
So normally I wouldn't bring up on the air an
eighty year old singing star spouse dying because I think
you don't care, or you don't know who they are
or whatever. But for whatever reason, Dolly Parton seems to
span generations and even young people are aware of Dolly
Parton for a variety of reasons of reality shows or
I don't know what it is, but everybody seems to
(21:24):
know who Dolly Parton is. And she's so utterly uncontroversial
and loved.
Speaker 1 (21:30):
Yeah, her husband died.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
Yesterday and she wrote a movie piece about it on
her Instagram, But I didn't nobody knew much about her husband.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
Many people wondered if she actually had husband.
Speaker 3 (21:41):
When I was a kid, I mean, this is going
way back to the seventies and eighties, she would go
on Johnny Carson.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
And talk about, you know, my husband Carl.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
And just you know, make jokes about husband Carl, And
there was some belief that she always brought up having
a husband just so guys would leave her alone because
she was so freaking hot. And you know, you never
saw him or anything like that. But no, she had
a husband, Carl, for sixty years. They met when at
the Wishy Washy Laundromat in Tennessee when she was eighteen.
(22:13):
She thought he was handsome. He thought she was the
hottest thing he'd ever seen. And he's first saw her,
he thought, I'm gonna make her my wife. And they
started talking and they went out, and two years later
they were married. And they were together for sixty years.
And he did his name for an old timey laundromat too, Yeah,
Wishy Washy, that's fantastic. And he did an interview ten
years ago when they'd been married for fifty years with
(22:36):
Entertainment Magazine where he said, my first thought when I
saw her was I'm going to marry that girl. And
that was the day my life began. I wouldn't trade
the last fifty years for nothing on earth. And she
says the same thing about him. One of those absolutely
amazing love stories of being together all that time. Never
had kids in the sixty years, and you know, it's
not easy, as you've all, as we've all witnessed the
whole show business marriage, and she's a sex symbol and
(23:00):
all those things don't often go well, but it did
for them. Interesting nugget the song Joelene, which also spans many,
many generations. She wrote about a bank teller who kept
hitting on her husband and she thought he was going
to the bank and awful lot lately, and this hot
bank teller, cue bank teller was hitting on him a lot,
and she wrote the Joelene based on those feelings she had.
Speaker 1 (23:21):
Oh wow, yeah, wow, there's nothing more to it than that. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (23:25):
She's also a bit of a magnate too. She successfully
translated her brand to the Dollywood franchise and that thing.
Speaker 3 (23:31):
Yeah, and one of those just amazingly positive people that
just have the uh, I'm gonna do it and overcome
anything sort of attitude, which leads me to another thing
that I came across last night. I don't know how
many of you are familiar with Saint Teresa of Avla,
one of your Catholic saints, which maybe the Pope will
be visiting soon based on his current health. But oh,
(23:54):
in person, you mean, yeah, I like a shrine. No, Yeah,
I'm assuming too much here. Saint Teresa Vila lived in
the fifteen hundreds, so she has been dead for she
passed for quite some time.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
Uh, sometimes you will be missed.
Speaker 3 (24:07):
Yeah, And one of my favorite prayers of all time,
whether it's a prayer of a philosophy is hers that
is fairly well known. Don't ever be frightened, don't ever
be disturbed. Everything is changing. Basically, it's the idea that
you know, things are good now, things are bad now, whatever.
Things are constantly changing, so you know, just make your
(24:27):
way through it.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
So if there's a bear charging after me like it's
the Revenant, I'm not supposed to be frightened or disturbed
because there was no bear chasing me a minute ago.
Now there is. And that's the sort of change Saint
Teresa told us to expect.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
Exactly. I'll pray as hard as I can. I'm not
sure that one's going to take.
Speaker 3 (24:44):
You're a nitpicker on philosophies, that is for certain, anyway.
You anyway, she wrote an autobiography, and I just came
across this information yesterday, which I thought was really interesting.
She wrote autobiography, went back in the fifteen hundreds and
talking about her addiction to novels about knights and chivalry
(25:09):
and how much time she was was reading them and
she just couldn't stop, and she knew it was getting
in the way of her devotion to God.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
And I just thought, what an interesting thing.
Speaker 4 (25:20):
So if you're all remark movies of the fifteen yeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
And if you're a don Quixote fan, which was written
in roughly sixteen fifteen, he was a contemporary of Shakespeare.
So don Quixote is basically about a character who's kind
of mentally ill, but he in the hot books than
the fifteen hundreds were in Spain, were all about knights
and chivalry, and they were just like the paperback book
that everybody loved so much, and don Quixote got obsessed
(25:47):
with him and wanted to be one of those characters. Well,
apparently she was reading those books and became obsessed with
them herself and couldn't stop reading in this just like
I wasted another day reading you know, Knight's books. When
am I gonna get my act together and start devoting
my life to God like I claim I am?
Speaker 1 (26:01):
And I just thought that is fascinating. Oh, yeah, on
a couple of levels.
Speaker 4 (26:04):
Number one, what a charming revelation about somebody who lived
many centuries ago. And secondly, you know, to the great
guiding conservative viewpoint, human nature doesn't change.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
You're not going to reform humanity. You've got to.
Speaker 4 (26:18):
Accept humanity and design systems with incentives and disincentives and
equal justice for all and blah blah blah, because we're
not all going to turn into saints when our progressive
overlords have taught us well enough. But it's funny I
use the term saints. She's literally saint and couldn't stop
reading the damn books.
Speaker 1 (26:39):
Wow. Wow, that is something.
Speaker 3 (26:42):
Something, It's just part of being a human being, battling
the wasting time on you know, whether you're binge watching
a Netflix show or you know, whatever it is you're doing.
It's just so easy to do in something. I know,
I try to fight every single day.
Speaker 4 (26:57):
Yeah, yeah, I think every but he on the show
and in the audience is thinking.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
Now, ah, I sitting a little close to home. What's mine? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (27:05):
About whatever it is, and we all I think, no,
when we've crossed the line. I mean, they're not wrong
with watching a Netflix series.
Speaker 1 (27:11):
Nothing wrong with.
Speaker 3 (27:12):
Reading, you know, a meaningless book or whatever. But we
all know when who've crossed the line into this has
taking up way too much of my time, and it's
just easy and feels good, and there are other things
I should be doing.
Speaker 4 (27:25):
Sure, sure, absolutely, Yeah, have you ever cracked open? Well?
Speaker 1 (27:28):
I supposed don kyotes.
Speaker 4 (27:30):
Well it's kind of a comment on those books in
a way, but have you Are there any translations available
of old timey chivalry novels?
Speaker 1 (27:37):
I would imagine there are, but I've never read one.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
But I think you know that would have basically been
the soap operas of the day, right, A hairline and
a night and a rescuer and save her from her whatever,
you know, the kind of stuff people have always liked.
Speaker 4 (27:49):
Prying off his armor than verious subtle hints at what
was to come, you know, Wow.
Speaker 1 (27:54):
You turned it into fifty shades of gray somehow.
Speaker 4 (27:56):
Well, No, this, surely there was love making. I mean,
if he's going off to fight the Mongol Hordes or
the Muslims or Huguenots or whatever for his fair lady's hand,
sure he gets that hand. He's not gonna settle for
the hand, if you know what I'm saying.
Speaker 3 (28:13):
Yeah, And remember when I read Don Quixote. We were
doing this show. We've been doing this show for so
many years. But I read don Quixote, I was amazed
by the number of flatulence jokes in it. It's just
like never ending flatulence jokes in one of the great
novels of.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
All time, and yet you remain a flatulence choke extremist.
Speaker 3 (28:30):
Yeah, I don't find it funny, well childish. Some polling
came out. If you're wondering what other people's attitudes is
are about supporting Russia versus Ukraine or that whole thing,
there's some polling that came out yesterday, including worldwide polling,
and uh, well, you tell me what you think of it.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
Among all the things on the way stay with us,
it was some.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
Business news I saw after two decades Skype is shutting down.
Speaker 1 (29:04):
Employees knew it was time.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
When the farewell meet it was held over Zoom. Wow,
Skype was a really big deal. I think that was
one of the things I wish I had invested in, Like,
how did you not invest in Skype? Obviously this is
gonna be the biggest thing ever. Now it's gone, easy come,
easy go. Man in the world attack.
Speaker 4 (29:22):
So, as I mentioned earlier, dozens and dozens of emails
about the Ukraine thing, the flap in the Oval office,
all sorts of different opinions, She's going to hit a couple.
Speaker 1 (29:31):
Uh have you said thank you?
Speaker 4 (29:32):
I like JD Vance, but he came off as an
insincere leg humper during that Zelensky meeting.
Speaker 1 (29:38):
Uh, thanks for what JD.
Speaker 4 (29:41):
The Budapest memorandum when they gave you their nukes in
exchange for the promise of protection. Since Clinton signed the agreement,
the Russians have attacked and taken gobbles of Ukraine over
and over again.
Speaker 1 (29:51):
So he's supposed to thank him for that.
Speaker 4 (29:52):
He has every justification of punch every US president since
Clinton in the face. We welshed on the deal. I
apologize to the Welsh people for that, and he goes
on on that thing.
Speaker 1 (30:02):
Then we got.
Speaker 4 (30:04):
Just my two cents President's Trump's position was clearly known
and telegraphed to all parties, including Ukraine prior to the meeting.
Of Zelensky didn't want to sign that he shouldn't have
come to the meeting too. Zelensky was argumentative through the
meeting and constantly brought up to the security guarantees and lectured
Trump through the first part of the meeting. I'm summarizing
Michael's note here in rewatching it. I can't believe Trump
(30:25):
kept his calm as long as he did.
Speaker 1 (30:27):
Wow.
Speaker 4 (30:28):
And finally, however one feels about the righteousness of crane struggle,
theres one undeniable fact. They can't do it without the
US and he should have known that.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
And yesterday Lindsey Graham doubled down on calling for Zelensky
to resign. No one has a voice in Ukraine. They
need to have an election, and he needs to either
needs to resign or some sendo over somebody we can
do business with.
Speaker 4 (30:57):
A lot of the holies. A dictator he hasn't a
held election is ignorance. And well, I'll just say, you're
ill informed. Why would I cast dispersions because of Ukrainian
law and the constitution. That can't during martial law, during
a fight for their lives in wartime. Having said that
that second parts, that might be right. Somebody that we
can do business with and be productive with. It could
(31:19):
be that that just that relationship won't work.
Speaker 3 (31:21):
So Waltz yesterday tweeted out or Set in an interview
I guess, and this is a transcript.
Speaker 1 (31:26):
He's the National Security Advisor? Is that right? What he is?
Speaker 3 (31:28):
Anyway, we had a beautiful setting in the East Room,
ready for both leaders to sign that would have bound
the US and Ukraine together economically for a generation. It
involved critical minerals investment, and commitments from the UK and
France to put boots on the ground to help keep
the deal in place. This could have been a step
toward ending the warrant, stopping the destruction, and Zelensky decided
(31:51):
to get into an argument. His argument, Zelensky's side of
it is I've signed other things. We've Ukraine has signed
other things in the Astins twenty fourteen, and Putin's violated
all of them.
Speaker 1 (32:03):
Right, And he's right. There's a question of time, place,
and manner. Though. You can be right and still screw up. Yeah,
I think you know those.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
Anybody who sees this as just black and white, I'm sorry,
I don't agree with you. That part about Putin is
one hundred percent right. And if you think he handled
it terribly and was offensive and belligerent and in a
way that you just can't accept in the Oval office
on camera, you're right too.
Speaker 3 (32:30):
I think maybe, like Trump, Britain and France were attempting
to slip something into Ukraine that Putin would hate if like,
if you announced it belligerently, but you know your bad
mouthed Zelensky. You bad mouthed Zelensky, you praise Putin, you
praise Putin. And then he gets up one day and says,
wait a second, there are thirty thousand French and British
(32:53):
troops there, and the United States has got a mining
operation with a whole bunch of Americans and equipment there.
Speaker 1 (32:59):
How did that lifting your operations? How did I let
this happen? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (33:03):
Well, and the thought has crossed my mind that as
Trump and I've been skeptical of Trump's efforts to play
Putin or flatter Putin or whatever, because Putin's an alligator.
Speaker 1 (33:13):
You can't flatter an alligator.
Speaker 4 (33:15):
On the other hand, if Trump was thinking, I'm going
to soft pedal lists and get it under Putin, I'm
going to soft pedal list, I'm gonna act all friendly,
so he lets down his guard I'm gonna soft pedal list,
and Zelenski comes in the Oval office and says, we're not.
Speaker 1 (33:29):
Soft pedaling it. No way we're gonna say Putin will
hold this.
Speaker 4 (33:34):
The one thing we can't do is soft pedal of
Putin whether.
Speaker 1 (33:37):
Trump was right or wrong. That would piss you off. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
So, latest polling you go of CBS Russia Ukraine conflict.
Who do you support Ukraine, Russia or neither Russia four percent?
Neither forty four percent. It's kind of interesting, but Ukraine
is the majority in plurality fifty two percent for Ukraine.
Speaker 1 (34:02):
Right. That's where we are in the United States right now.
Speaker 4 (34:05):
US approaches to that in mind when you see thirty
seven percent of social media says up with Russia.
Speaker 3 (34:11):
Right, says something about social media, Yes, four percent of
people's flat out say they're for Russia. Forty four percent
do say neither. US approach to foreign policy, US should
have a leading role, US should work equally with allies.
US shouldn't get involved in the rest of the world.
Shouldn't get involved in the rest of the world is
only seventeen percent. But US should have a leading role
(34:33):
is only sixteen percent. Wow, US should work equally with
allies as two thirds.
Speaker 4 (34:37):
Of Americans, that would require our allies being our equals.
Speaker 3 (34:42):
I think we all overestimate the power of our allies,
and we've kind of allowed that to happen over the years.
We are the UN, we are NATO, we are the
who we are, everything we support fund are really the
backbone of everything.
Speaker 4 (34:58):
I think if we fully realize the weakness of some
of our allies, it would be terrifying or sickening.
Speaker 1 (35:05):
Right.
Speaker 3 (35:05):
What Trump's trying to do, and he tried to do
it in the first term, is you know, kind of
let everybody know about this. Hey, ain't they ain't what
they claim they are or they ain't putting their money
where their mouth is, right man? This is it gonna
be interesting to follow over the next weeks, months, and
years if you miss a segment at the podcast Armstrong
and Getty on demand
Speaker 4 (35:24):
Armstrong and Getty
Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio, the George
Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty arm Strong
and Jetty and he Armstrong and Yetty.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Moments after President Trump announced his tariffs against Canada, Mexico,
and China, we saw quite a tumble on the Stock Exchange,
the now closing down more than six hundred, almost six
hundred and fifty points as economist sound the alarm that
these tariffs are going to be passed on to the
American consumer with the prices of cars, electronics, and shoes
expected to go up.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Okay, So midnight last night the twenty five percent tariffs
on Mexico and Canada took took effect, and then the
extra tariffs on China, which again, as we kept saying,
keep saying, is a different topic, a different a different war.
But first of all, I just went to the vending
machine to get an avocado like I do every day
on the show forty seven like an apple.
Speaker 1 (01:03):
Yeah, forty seven dollars for an avocado.
Speaker 3 (01:05):
Because of the terrified last night, I want to, as
a free speech guy, ban all media outlets from ever
using the stock market going up or down in an
hour or a day as evidence of anything. I just
that's just a ridiculous way to look at anything. Really
is someone has already your four oh one k's have
(01:27):
taken a hit because of the or already Americans are
rejoicing because the stock market has gone. You can't draw
any conclusions in one day or one hour or one
afternoon of stock market reactions.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
You just can't.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
The great original sin of that was when Trump was
first elected and the Trump stock plunge or whatever they
called it, and had it completely turned around by noon
the next day. But it's funny they were very busy
that second day and couldn't report that turnaround. Now, having
said that, I will tell you this. I think it's important.
It's an important amble the discussion that will follow. While
(02:02):
you talk, I'll munch on my forty seven dollars avocado.
Savor that thing, man, say every bite, roll it around
in your mush.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
All right, here's the deal.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
We neither cheerlead every single thing Trump does, nor do
we hammer him for everything he does. Like most of
the media these days, which are very very tribal, we
just try to figure out what's actually going on and
form an idea of how things are going to work
and affect you in your lives. If you are not
(02:34):
into that, if you would rather have the aforementioned constant
bashing or praising, we wish you well certainly in your
future endeavors. Anyway, Having said that, I want more than
anything for the economy to be good, of course, for
my retirement savings to hold up, for inflation to be
under control, for the housing market to become more normal.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
And the rest of it.
Speaker 4 (02:59):
But I am I'm worried about this tariff thing, especially
if it lasts for a while.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
It doesn't make sense to me on a lot of levels.
Speaker 4 (03:10):
And as Jack said, the China thing, China engages in
communist finance, dumping of goods across the globe to try
to drive global competition unfairly out of business, and then
they will stand astride the globe as the manufacturing colossus,
and we will all have to kiss their asses. I
despise China and the Communist Party. I despise what they're doing.
(03:32):
There should be stiff tariffs against them. We should uncouple
from them as quickly as we can. China's over there.
The Canada Mexico thing, the justification for the high tariffs
against two of our biggest trading partners and neighbors. Is
that we have a national emergency. Fentanyl killing six figures
(03:53):
worth of Americans. That's a pretty good emergency. And immigration,
millions of people flowing in, sucking up services, many of
them criminals, lawlessness in general.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
All right, I'll give you that.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
The problem, though, is that the percentage of fentanyl and
I had these numbers a week ago, but the percentage
of fentanyl that comes in over the Canadian border is
practically none of it. And likewise, the illegal immigrants the
Canadian border is just a tiny, tiny fraction of you know,
(04:26):
the problem. And the amount of American manufacturing that's flowed
to Canada after the two big trade deals, the Clinton
Deal and then when it was updated and Trump negotiated
blah blah blah. The amount of American manufacturing that's flown
into Mexico is fairly significant, but to Canada it's practically none.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
So okay.
Speaker 4 (04:47):
So you've got that, and then you've got the fact
that this will inevitably, and Trump has recently admitted, this
cause pain in the pocketbook for Americans. It will raise
prices on a surprising array of things, especially because the
manufacturers that are still here need steal and aluminum, for instance,
or a lumber. We're about to start a remodel project,
(05:09):
and I just see that price taggling up, up, up.
As you know, Canadian imports get twenty five percent more expensive.
Maybe I just I think this is a huge gamble
on one of the two issues that got Trump elected.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
The border doing great, fantastic.
Speaker 4 (05:25):
I mean, they're hiccups, but of course there are going
to be hiccups and the economy, specifically inflation. And if
this screws up the economy and inflation, and the good,
solid working class people of America who've really been struggling
because globalism has left them behind, if they get hammered
again by this, it's going to be really really bad
for Republicans.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
So the President of Mexico, whose name sounds like she's
the president of the prime Minister of Israel, as opposed
to the Prime Minister of Great Britain, whose name sounds
like he's the Prime Minister of Germany, they all.
Speaker 4 (05:58):
Got to get same, Like he's the bad guy in
a non movie Kirs Starmer. I want everybody to get
names that sounds like the country they're from just so here.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
For me, it's not at all bigoted. That's fine. Well
it's been going min and Baum.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
Your new last name is Gomez to make Jack more comfortable.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
Yes, once I.
Speaker 3 (06:16):
Have spent most of my life you can count on
people's names sounded like.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
The country they're from, folks. This is the ugly American
that people speak of right here.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
But the president of Mexico has said that there will
be retaliation from Mexico to these twenty five percent tariffs
taking effect today.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
I don't know what Justin trud is doing.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
He's probably as soon as he gets out of ballet class,
he'll probably take a look at how they're going to
handle it.
Speaker 4 (06:43):
Well, he's getting his hair frosted today, so it's going
to be at least new until he respond. On the
other hand, on the other hand, and this bothers me too,
I love Trump mocking Justin Trudeau. Obviously we're not against
that around here, but he's gone so hardcore at Canada
(07:06):
and mocking Canada itself and then the tariffs and very
you know, declaring it a state and all.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
He is really fired up.
Speaker 4 (07:17):
Canadian patriotism and really really hurt the conservative guy Poliev,
who was looking so good going into the federal elections
which are coming up soon. Who knows how the way
they run elections in Canada, nobody can keep track, but
one poll show that fourign ten Americans see Polliev and
(07:38):
Trump is alike in that hurting him. As Canadians increasingly
associated Poliev to Trump's negative rhetoric aimed at Canada, he
is undermining. Trump is undermining a switch to sanity and
toughness in Canada because Canadians are so pissed off about
what Trump is saying. Interesting, yeah, yeah, might be a miscalculation,
(08:05):
who knows.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
I found this very interesting.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
You'd hate to see old black face Trudeau's party do
good just because of that.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
Oh yeah, oh that would be galling. I mean, it's
their election, they could do whatever they want. But man,
I was excited about Pauliev having a chance to come in.
Remember he's the apple munching hard ass. It was you know,
John with that reporter and one of our favorite clips
of last year. It's just terrific.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
All right.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
So here's I found this very very interesting. Of course
I'm a geek. How will the tariffs, if they last,
actually affect prices in the country, don't want to rush
through it.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
Why don't we take a break.
Speaker 4 (08:46):
I promise you'll find this interesting too, if you don't
write a strongly.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
Worded email to us.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Hey, Jades, looks you like the popes on his way out.
Speaker 4 (09:00):
If they had betting, Like what's the big betting market
that everybody talks about these days? It's not predicted, it's
the other one that's like offshore bet on whether the
pope's gonna die. That seems to say, if you could,
I don't think that would be a bad wager. Now,
he's a very old man. He's been fighting ammonia. They're
(09:21):
helping him breathe.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
Respiratory crisis is yesterday and using a tube proxygen. You know,
if you got an old relative that age, and you'd
think I might want to get close.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
Yeah, you're not gonna say, I'll go see him in October.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
So then we're going to go through the whole thing
with the white smoke and picking a new pope.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
And I'm about as interested in that as I am
in the oscars.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
Joe's me when it's over, Joe's gonna explain tariffs and
all that coming up next day.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
Here Barmstrong.
Speaker 5 (09:52):
Tariffs can bring good paying jobs back here to the
United States of America. They protect critical industries here at home,
and President Trump is serious when he says he wants
to make America the manufacturing superpower of the world, and
we have the ability to do it. We have the
best resources and the best people, but unfortunately we've been
ruled by a political class that has sold us out
(10:13):
for far too long.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
That's the White House press person or spokesperson. On Hannity
last night with the best spin on the tariffs, Mary
Catherine Ham, who you regularly see on Fox and has
pretty Trump friendly, said if it were me and I'd
inherited a soft economy at best and promise people to
address their cost of living issues, I wouldn't.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
Do the one giant obvious thing.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
That would risk price hikes and also make it easy
to pin any outcome on me.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
That's fry.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
I agree with Mary Catherine completely Someone on the right,
Caroline Levitt in what she said was fifty percent right
and fifty percent completely wrong.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
But she's there as an advocate and a litigator.
Speaker 4 (10:51):
I get it, but it was way way sunshiny. Just
to answer her very quickly, there isn't time to seriously
revive some of the American manufacturing.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
I wish it were more doable in a lot of ways.
Speaker 4 (11:07):
I don't hate the idea, but you just Trump has
three and a half years left. Unless it's like a
JD vance gets selected and Congress goes along with this stuff.
You know, revitalizing American manufacturing is going to take a
long time, and the idea that will be the manufacturing
leader of the world, that is completely impossible. Our wages
(11:28):
are too high, It'll never happen. Can we grow it
and improve it and step back from globalism?
Speaker 1 (11:34):
Some yes?
Speaker 4 (11:35):
Some Having said that, I thought this is really interesting
worth getting into. So President Trump is imposing your tariffs
on a range of products and countries. How much will
you pay more? What will that do to inflation? The
answer is not simple, and it's surprisingly hard to answer.
For example, a ten percent tariff on shoes from China
(11:56):
would raise their sticker price four percent. Probably wine or
all of midtly a ten percent tariff would raise it
about ten percent.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Why the difference? Tariffs aren't the only factor at work.
Speaker 4 (12:06):
And I'm going to be quoting the Wall Street Journal
in Moody's that did a big analysis of this currency
changes the availability of alternatives, and the pricing strategies of
producers and importers all play a part. All of this
effects the pass through, which is how much of the
tariff we pay as consumers. So for this analysis they
did the twenty five percent on imports from Canada and Mexico,
(12:30):
ten percent on others, plus the extra tariff on China.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
That's a lot.
Speaker 4 (12:36):
I don't even remember he's piled another ten percent on it.
But the knockoff effects are sometimes not intuitive. For instance,
here's an easy one to understand. Moody's analysis suggests a
ten percent tariff on a tablecloth from India would only
raise the final price two percent, because you can get
a tablecloth anywhere. They're more or less the same, manufactured anywhere.
(13:00):
Nobody cares, particularly where they come from, so they've got
practically no room to raise prices. The same would probably
be true of clothes, spare parts and accessories for cars.
Speaker 1 (13:10):
And some common cosmetics.
Speaker 4 (13:12):
Moving on, higher prices on Italian wine don't drive down
consumption much. If my favorite bottle of wine goes up
ten percent, I'm gonna buy it anyway.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Sellers are more.
Speaker 6 (13:21):
Likely, especially as the second third ones, All sellers are
much more likely to pass through the full ten percent tariff,
betting they won't lose many consumers as a result.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
So Italian wine.
Speaker 4 (13:34):
Is a niche product accounting for a small share of
US total wine consumption, so the total impact on wine
prices is like a third of a percent. But this
example illustrates how tariff's on one product can raise prices
throughout that group. A California wine maker would probably nudge
up her price as well, earning fatter profits. As long
as her new higher price is lower than the tariff alternative,
(13:55):
she might pick up some market share and might.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
As well try it. Wow. The wine wholesaler also plays
a role.
Speaker 4 (14:02):
Faced with a higher import bill for Italian wine thanks
to new tariffs, the wholesaler might decide to raise prices
for alternative wines in his warehouse to compensate for the
lost profit on the Italian stuff. Of course, you might
decide to do the opposite and swallow the lost profit
on the tariff, hoping to grab market share from competitors
who instead pass on the price increase to consumers. But
you're not sure who's going to do what until they
(14:22):
do it. Tariffs are most keenly felt when imported or
domestic alternatives are unavailable or the affected product commands a
significant premium. Even if tariffs raise the price of the
latest iPhone, Apple fans will probably still buy it. Video
Game consoles in their software fall into with similar category.
Video gaming is dominated by handful of players, mainly Nintendo, Sony,
(14:43):
and Microsoft. Many of the physical game consoles are made
in China, and gamers won't just swap in another machine
to keep playing. That gives producers and importers real power
to jack up prices for consumers to offset the pain
of tariffs. The Moody's analysis suggests that nearly all of
the ten percent additional tariff on game come consols from
China would be passed through to consumers, raising the price
(15:03):
of a five hundred dollars machine to five hundred and
forty eight dollars. Oh man, I'm not sure we have
time to talk about cars, but Mexico is the top
foreign supplier of passenger cars and sport utility vehicles in
the US twenty three percent of imports last year. Tariff's
on Mexican made cars would likely mean not just higher
prices for vehicles shipped across the border. But on all
cars is other manufacturers and dealers see a chance to
(15:25):
eke out more profit while gaining market share. Then you've
also got and a lot of folks that brought this up.
It's super interesting when you learn about it. But a
part that ends up in your car in America might
across the US Canadian border three four, five times before
you fire up the engine and drive off the lot.
(15:46):
Really as a simple part becomes part of a mechanism
that's assembled in the US that's then put into a
much more complicated mechanism that's built in Canada than put
back in the car to be assembled in the US
or maybe Mexicans.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
So a piece that goes into a carburetor crosses from
Mexico and the United States, they put it into the carburetor,
send the carburetor to Canada maybe where they're assembling the engine.
The engine comes back across the border into the United States. Yeah,
exactly interesting.
Speaker 4 (16:14):
Yeah, and if there are tariffs every time that happens,
it could be insanely complicated and expensive. And the other
thing we really don't have time to get into, but
it's simple enough to understand is all of these other
countries are imposing retaliatory tariffs which are really going to
hurt American exports, which we're supposedly trying to beef up here,
and it might work in long term. Again, I'm not
(16:35):
an anti Trump knee jerk guy. I'm just highly skeptical
of how well this is going to work. And farmers
are going to take it in the pants because commodity
prices are going to drop as retaliatory tariffs hurt American
farm exports. So this is an enormous gamble by Republicans
in the Trump administration, and I just I don't see
(16:56):
it working out well.
Speaker 1 (16:57):
I hope I'm wrong.
Speaker 3 (16:59):
I realize every car has the fine now, and I'm
not wanting to argue with you about carbretors, just trying
to make a point about how that would work.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
Okay, we got about restraint way stick here, Armstrong and Getty.
Speaker 7 (17:15):
Sixty four days till the government's real ID requirement takes effect,
and flat Latia Say says it has the flexibility.
Speaker 1 (17:22):
To phase in enforcement.
Speaker 7 (17:23):
It is strongly urging anyone planning to fly to have
a real ID or passport by May seventh. To get
a real ID, you'll need to provide an ID or
documentation that includes full legal name, DOB, social Security number,
lawful status, and two proofs of address, which could include
a payroll, stub, rent or mortgage payment.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
Real IDs have a star.
Speaker 7 (17:46):
In the car it's upper corner, while California has a
bear and a star.
Speaker 3 (17:50):
What percentage of people have done this so far? Gotten
their real id's what's funny about this? And remember that
this was passed in the wake of nine eleven to
make sure couldn't get on planes forgotten. It's just it's
like my trying to open the bank account for my
son a couple of weeks ago. No, because of the
Patriot Act, because of nine to eleven, you need to
(18:12):
have his birth certificate to open.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Your son's checking account and saving's account. Are you kidding me? Anyway?
Back to you? Oh, unbelievable.
Speaker 4 (18:20):
Well, I think I have one, but I've lost track.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (18:25):
It's ground on so long and they've there's been so
many postponements and announcements that they retract you.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
When when did you last renew your driver's license? I
have no idea. I have to look, I have to
reach it out my pocket. At who's at the time exactly.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
All I know is like I bought a ticket the
other day for my son's birthday. We're doing something, but
Southwest Ala he says, remember to get your real ID by.
And they've been warning me this for years. And every
time I look at that, I think I can picture
who and you know, Gladys could play the harp. I
can picture what's gonna happen in the future, and I
do it every time I see the warning on Southwest
(19:03):
Airlines make sure you have your real ID by, whatever
data is. I think I'm going to go to the
airport for some big trip. I'm going to get there
and they're going to say we don't take driver's licenses anymore.
We've been warning you for three years and you never.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
Did any of me. I know it's going to happen. Yeah,
I know it's going to happen. Man, Oh, well, what
are you going to do? Well?
Speaker 4 (19:24):
You know Sama bin Laden in the events of twenty
four years ago.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
So this is interesting.
Speaker 4 (19:31):
Dovetailing off of our conversation last segment about tariffs and inflation,
economic risk and that sort of thing. The one thing
and I underemphasize this, and I shouldn't have The one
thing that the business really wants and by extension of
the stock market, is some level of certainty so they
can do planning and investment and there. It's hard to
picture more uncertainty than is going on right now unless
(19:54):
you know China, tax Taiwan or whatever.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
I mean. There's always more.
Speaker 4 (19:58):
But the markets as of when we're speaking now, if
you're listening in the future via podcast, are down about
a percent and a half, all of them. The nasdac's
into correction territory. Of course, it was overheated, and we
don't leap to conclusions based on even a day's worth
of the stock market, but it's they're.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
Rattled, no doubt.
Speaker 4 (20:21):
Although as I look at the chart of the day
so far, it looks like for now the market has
and this is my favorite expression in the stock market, Michael,
do you remember what it is? Come on now, I've
been teaching you this for years, so it's my favorite. No,
that's a good one though, By the dip, by the dip, No,
(20:43):
my favorite expression is the markets appeared to have found
a firm bottom.
Speaker 1 (20:47):
Oh wow, we all like that. Yeah, so they bounce
back a little bit from their lows. But who knows.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
It's early in the trading day, and anyway, markets and
businesses are very rattled. I think this is an enormous
gamble by Trump, and I'm not sure he's gonna win
at it, but we'll all find out together.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
So normally I wouldn't bring up on the air an
eighty year old singing star spouse dying because I think
you don't care, or you don't know who they are
or whatever. But for whatever reason, Dolly Parton seems to
span generations and even young people are aware of Dolly
Parton for a variety of reasons of reality shows or
I don't know what it is, but everybody seems to
(21:24):
know who Dolly Parton is. And she's so utterly uncontroversial
and loved.
Speaker 1 (21:30):
Yeah, her husband died.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
Yesterday and she wrote a movie piece about it on
her Instagram, But I didn't nobody knew much about her husband.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
Many people wondered if she actually had husband.
Speaker 3 (21:41):
When I was a kid, I mean, this is going
way back to the seventies and eighties, she would go
on Johnny Carson.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
And talk about, you know, my husband Carl.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
And just you know, make jokes about husband Carl, And
there was some belief that she always brought up having
a husband just so guys would leave her alone because
she was so freaking hot. And you know, you never
saw him or anything like that. But no, she had
a husband, Carl, for sixty years. They met when at
the Wishy Washy Laundromat in Tennessee when she was eighteen.
(22:13):
She thought he was handsome. He thought she was the
hottest thing he'd ever seen. And he's first saw her,
he thought, I'm gonna make her my wife. And they
started talking and they went out, and two years later
they were married. And they were together for sixty years.
And he did his name for an old timey laundromat too, Yeah,
Wishy Washy, that's fantastic. And he did an interview ten
years ago when they'd been married for fifty years with
(22:36):
Entertainment Magazine where he said, my first thought when I
saw her was I'm going to marry that girl. And
that was the day my life began. I wouldn't trade
the last fifty years for nothing on earth. And she
says the same thing about him. One of those absolutely
amazing love stories of being together all that time. Never
had kids in the sixty years, and you know, it's
not easy, as you've all, as we've all witnessed the
whole show business marriage, and she's a sex symbol and
(23:00):
all those things don't often go well, but it did
for them. Interesting nugget the song Joelene, which also spans many,
many generations. She wrote about a bank teller who kept
hitting on her husband and she thought he was going
to the bank and awful lot lately, and this hot
bank teller, cue bank teller was hitting on him a lot,
and she wrote the Joelene based on those feelings she had.
Speaker 1 (23:21):
Oh wow, yeah, wow, there's nothing more to it than that. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (23:25):
She's also a bit of a magnate too. She successfully
translated her brand to the Dollywood franchise and that thing.
Speaker 3 (23:31):
Yeah, and one of those just amazingly positive people that
just have the uh, I'm gonna do it and overcome
anything sort of attitude, which leads me to another thing
that I came across last night. I don't know how
many of you are familiar with Saint Teresa of Avla,
one of your Catholic saints, which maybe the Pope will
be visiting soon based on his current health. But oh,
(23:54):
in person, you mean, yeah, I like a shrine. No, Yeah,
I'm assuming too much here. Saint Teresa Vila lived in
the fifteen hundreds, so she has been dead for she
passed for quite some time.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
Uh, sometimes you will be missed.
Speaker 3 (24:07):
Yeah, And one of my favorite prayers of all time,
whether it's a prayer of a philosophy is hers that
is fairly well known. Don't ever be frightened, don't ever
be disturbed. Everything is changing. Basically, it's the idea that
you know, things are good now, things are bad now, whatever.
Things are constantly changing, so you know, just make your
(24:27):
way through it.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
So if there's a bear charging after me like it's
the Revenant, I'm not supposed to be frightened or disturbed
because there was no bear chasing me a minute ago.
Now there is. And that's the sort of change Saint
Teresa told us to expect.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
Exactly. I'll pray as hard as I can. I'm not
sure that one's going to take.
Speaker 3 (24:44):
You're a nitpicker on philosophies, that is for certain, anyway.
You anyway, she wrote an autobiography, and I just came
across this information yesterday, which I thought was really interesting.
She wrote autobiography, went back in the fifteen hundreds and
talking about her addiction to novels about knights and chivalry
(25:09):
and how much time she was was reading them and
she just couldn't stop, and she knew it was getting
in the way of her devotion to God.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
And I just thought, what an interesting thing.
Speaker 4 (25:20):
So if you're all remark movies of the fifteen yeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
And if you're a don Quixote fan, which was written
in roughly sixteen fifteen, he was a contemporary of Shakespeare.
So don Quixote is basically about a character who's kind
of mentally ill, but he in the hot books than
the fifteen hundreds were in Spain, were all about knights
and chivalry, and they were just like the paperback book
that everybody loved so much, and don Quixote got obsessed
(25:47):
with him and wanted to be one of those characters. Well,
apparently she was reading those books and became obsessed with
them herself and couldn't stop reading in this just like
I wasted another day reading you know, Knight's books. When
am I gonna get my act together and start devoting
my life to God like I claim I am?
Speaker 1 (26:01):
And I just thought that is fascinating. Oh, yeah, on
a couple of levels.
Speaker 4 (26:04):
Number one, what a charming revelation about somebody who lived
many centuries ago. And secondly, you know, to the great
guiding conservative viewpoint, human nature doesn't change.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
You're not going to reform humanity. You've got to.
Speaker 4 (26:18):
Accept humanity and design systems with incentives and disincentives and
equal justice for all and blah blah blah, because we're
not all going to turn into saints when our progressive
overlords have taught us well enough. But it's funny I
use the term saints. She's literally saint and couldn't stop
reading the damn books.
Speaker 1 (26:39):
Wow. Wow, that is something.
Speaker 3 (26:42):
Something, It's just part of being a human being, battling
the wasting time on you know, whether you're binge watching
a Netflix show or you know, whatever it is you're doing.
It's just so easy to do in something. I know,
I try to fight every single day.
Speaker 4 (26:57):
Yeah, yeah, I think every but he on the show
and in the audience is thinking.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
Now, ah, I sitting a little close to home. What's mine? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (27:05):
About whatever it is, and we all I think, no,
when we've crossed the line. I mean, they're not wrong
with watching a Netflix series.
Speaker 1 (27:11):
Nothing wrong with.
Speaker 3 (27:12):
Reading, you know, a meaningless book or whatever. But we
all know when who've crossed the line into this has
taking up way too much of my time, and it's
just easy and feels good, and there are other things
I should be doing.
Speaker 4 (27:25):
Sure, sure, absolutely, Yeah, have you ever cracked open? Well?
Speaker 1 (27:28):
I supposed don kyotes.
Speaker 4 (27:30):
Well it's kind of a comment on those books in
a way, but have you Are there any translations available
of old timey chivalry novels?
Speaker 1 (27:37):
I would imagine there are, but I've never read one.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
But I think you know that would have basically been
the soap operas of the day, right, A hairline and
a night and a rescuer and save her from her whatever,
you know, the kind of stuff people have always liked.
Speaker 4 (27:49):
Prying off his armor than verious subtle hints at what
was to come, you know, Wow.
Speaker 1 (27:54):
You turned it into fifty shades of gray somehow.
Speaker 4 (27:56):
Well, No, this, surely there was love making. I mean,
if he's going off to fight the Mongol Hordes or
the Muslims or Huguenots or whatever for his fair lady's hand,
sure he gets that hand. He's not gonna settle for
the hand, if you know what I'm saying.
Speaker 3 (28:13):
Yeah, And remember when I read Don Quixote. We were
doing this show. We've been doing this show for so
many years. But I read don Quixote, I was amazed
by the number of flatulence jokes in it. It's just
like never ending flatulence jokes in one of the great
novels of.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
All time, and yet you remain a flatulence choke extremist.
Speaker 3 (28:30):
Yeah, I don't find it funny, well childish. Some polling
came out. If you're wondering what other people's attitudes is
are about supporting Russia versus Ukraine or that whole thing,
there's some polling that came out yesterday, including worldwide polling,
and uh, well, you tell me what you think of it.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
Among all the things on the way stay with us,
it was some.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
Business news I saw after two decades Skype is shutting down.
Speaker 1 (29:04):
Employees knew it was time.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
When the farewell meet it was held over Zoom. Wow,
Skype was a really big deal. I think that was
one of the things I wish I had invested in, Like,
how did you not invest in Skype? Obviously this is
gonna be the biggest thing ever. Now it's gone, easy come,
easy go. Man in the world attack.
Speaker 4 (29:22):
So, as I mentioned earlier, dozens and dozens of emails
about the Ukraine thing, the flap in the Oval office,
all sorts of different opinions, She's going to hit a couple.
Speaker 1 (29:31):
Uh have you said thank you?
Speaker 4 (29:32):
I like JD Vance, but he came off as an
insincere leg humper during that Zelensky meeting.
Speaker 1 (29:38):
Uh, thanks for what JD.
Speaker 4 (29:41):
The Budapest memorandum when they gave you their nukes in
exchange for the promise of protection. Since Clinton signed the agreement,
the Russians have attacked and taken gobbles of Ukraine over
and over again.
Speaker 1 (29:51):
So he's supposed to thank him for that.
Speaker 4 (29:52):
He has every justification of punch every US president since
Clinton in the face. We welshed on the deal. I
apologize to the Welsh people for that, and he goes
on on that thing.
Speaker 1 (30:02):
Then we got.
Speaker 4 (30:04):
Just my two cents President's Trump's position was clearly known
and telegraphed to all parties, including Ukraine prior to the meeting.
Of Zelensky didn't want to sign that he shouldn't have
come to the meeting too. Zelensky was argumentative through the
meeting and constantly brought up to the security guarantees and lectured
Trump through the first part of the meeting. I'm summarizing
Michael's note here in rewatching it. I can't believe Trump
(30:25):
kept his calm as long as he did.
Speaker 1 (30:27):
Wow.
Speaker 4 (30:28):
And finally, however one feels about the righteousness of crane struggle,
theres one undeniable fact. They can't do it without the
US and he should have known that.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
And yesterday Lindsey Graham doubled down on calling for Zelensky
to resign. No one has a voice in Ukraine. They
need to have an election, and he needs to either
needs to resign or some sendo over somebody we can
do business with.
Speaker 4 (30:57):
A lot of the holies. A dictator he hasn't a
held election is ignorance. And well, I'll just say, you're
ill informed. Why would I cast dispersions because of Ukrainian
law and the constitution. That can't during martial law, during
a fight for their lives in wartime. Having said that
that second parts, that might be right. Somebody that we
can do business with and be productive with. It could
(31:19):
be that that just that relationship won't work.
Speaker 3 (31:21):
So Waltz yesterday tweeted out or Set in an interview
I guess, and this is a transcript.
Speaker 1 (31:26):
He's the National Security Advisor? Is that right? What he is?
Speaker 3 (31:28):
Anyway, we had a beautiful setting in the East Room,
ready for both leaders to sign that would have bound
the US and Ukraine together economically for a generation. It
involved critical minerals investment, and commitments from the UK and
France to put boots on the ground to help keep
the deal in place. This could have been a step
toward ending the warrant, stopping the destruction, and Zelensky decided
(31:51):
to get into an argument. His argument, Zelensky's side of
it is I've signed other things. We've Ukraine has signed
other things in the Astins twenty fourteen, and Putin's violated
all of them.
Speaker 1 (32:03):
Right, And he's right. There's a question of time, place,
and manner. Though. You can be right and still screw up. Yeah,
I think you know those.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
Anybody who sees this as just black and white, I'm sorry,
I don't agree with you. That part about Putin is
one hundred percent right. And if you think he handled
it terribly and was offensive and belligerent and in a
way that you just can't accept in the Oval office
on camera, you're right too.
Speaker 3 (32:30):
I think maybe, like Trump, Britain and France were attempting
to slip something into Ukraine that Putin would hate if like,
if you announced it belligerently, but you know your bad
mouthed Zelensky. You bad mouthed Zelensky, you praise Putin, you
praise Putin. And then he gets up one day and says,
wait a second, there are thirty thousand French and British
(32:53):
troops there, and the United States has got a mining
operation with a whole bunch of Americans and equipment there.
Speaker 1 (32:59):
How did that lifting your operations? How did I let
this happen? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (33:03):
Well, and the thought has crossed my mind that as
Trump and I've been skeptical of Trump's efforts to play
Putin or flatter Putin or whatever, because Putin's an alligator.
Speaker 1 (33:13):
You can't flatter an alligator.
Speaker 4 (33:15):
On the other hand, if Trump was thinking, I'm going
to soft pedal lists and get it under Putin, I'm
going to soft pedal list, I'm gonna act all friendly,
so he lets down his guard I'm gonna soft pedal list,
and Zelenski comes in the Oval office and says, we're not.
Speaker 1 (33:29):
Soft pedaling it. No way we're gonna say Putin will
hold this.
Speaker 4 (33:34):
The one thing we can't do is soft pedal of
Putin whether.
Speaker 1 (33:37):
Trump was right or wrong. That would piss you off. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
So, latest polling you go of CBS Russia Ukraine conflict.
Who do you support Ukraine, Russia or neither Russia four percent?
Neither forty four percent. It's kind of interesting, but Ukraine
is the majority in plurality fifty two percent for Ukraine.
Speaker 1 (34:02):
Right. That's where we are in the United States right now.
Speaker 4 (34:05):
US approaches to that in mind when you see thirty
seven percent of social media says up with Russia.
Speaker 3 (34:11):
Right, says something about social media, Yes, four percent of
people's flat out say they're for Russia. Forty four percent
do say neither. US approach to foreign policy, US should
have a leading role, US should work equally with allies.
US shouldn't get involved in the rest of the world.
Shouldn't get involved in the rest of the world is
only seventeen percent. But US should have a leading role
(34:33):
is only sixteen percent. Wow, US should work equally with
allies as two thirds.
Speaker 4 (34:37):
Of Americans, that would require our allies being our equals.
Speaker 3 (34:42):
I think we all overestimate the power of our allies,
and we've kind of allowed that to happen over the years.
We are the UN, we are NATO, we are the
who we are, everything we support fund are really the
backbone of everything.
Speaker 4 (34:58):
I think if we fully realize the weakness of some
of our allies, it would be terrifying or sickening.
Speaker 1 (35:05):
Right.
Speaker 3 (35:05):
What Trump's trying to do, and he tried to do
it in the first term, is you know, kind of
let everybody know about this. Hey, ain't they ain't what
they claim they are or they ain't putting their money
where their mouth is, right man? This is it gonna
be interesting to follow over the next weeks, months, and
years if you miss a segment at the podcast Armstrong
and Getty on demand
Speaker 4 (35:24):
Armstrong and Getty
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