Trade with Conviction
In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.
Episodes
Jorge Molinero hosts June Goh and Michael Ryan as Iran’s tanker attacks escalate ahead of US elections. They cover Basra discounts, Aramco term talks, China’s product export quotas, and whether the TD3C sell-off is overdone.
Chapters:
(01:52) Hormuz, sanctions and US politics: Iran’s attacks are rising and changing shape, and Washington may hold off until November 3.
<...Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Jay Maroo, Abhishek Kumar and Jorge Molinero unpack Iran's shift from blocking Hormuz to policing it, mounting strikes on Saudi and Russian energy infrastructure, a bearish TD3C freight call, Russian diesel exports returning, and tight Naphtha and LPG markets heading into winter.
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Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Michael Ryan, Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski unpack Hormuz exports rebounding near pre-war levels despite daily tanker attacks, VLCC rates near $1.2 million a day, Trump's shelved diesel export ban, EU and US SPR releases, and why gas oil cracks still look bullish into Q1 2027.
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Host June Goh welcomes Sparta colleagues James Noel-Beswick and Jorge Molinero to unpack the diesel crisis: why global stocks have hit 10-year lows, how geopolitics and refinery outages are compounding the squeeze, and where traders should look to position next.
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Chapters:
(03:59) Red Dies...
Felipe Elink-Schuurman, June Goh and Michael Ryan unpack the potential US diesel export ban, the Saudi pipeline attack and Russian refinery strikes reshaping crude flows. June covers the diesel, gasoline and crude fallout if the ban lands, while Michael maps the freight rush already underway on TC14 and VLCCs. Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=le...
Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Jay Maroo, Aaron Kildow and James Noel-Beswick break down the Petroline pipeline strike forcing Saudi crude back through Hormuz, freight rates hitting record highs, and diesel cracks near $100/bbl. The real constraint now is products, not crude, with no clear sign of demand destruction.
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James Noel-Beswick hosts Nikolas Plonski and Jorge Molinero as Iran-US escalation, Houthi attacks on Mokka and Russian refinery strikes push Brent through $100. They cover record US diesel margins, a widening TI-Brent, gasoline strength in Singapore, an LPG price spike, and a split CPP freight market. Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaig...
Felipe Elink Schuurman, Abhishek Kumar, Michael Ryan and Jay Maroo cover the Iran-US escalation and Kirishi refinery strike, then break down a diesel market pulling barrels from Singapore to Houston, a gasoline barge spike to $2.90, TC14 freight jumping 45 points, and three fresh crude trade ideas.
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Jay Maroo hosts Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski as Hormuz de-escalation talk collides with a fresh tanker strike. Aaron unpacks the US SPR's final barrels and a collapsing TI-Brent spread, while Nikolas breaks down gasoline RINs volatility and a blown-out diesel east-west spread.
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Felipe Elink Schuurman is joined by James Noel-Beswick and Michael Ryan as Trump threatens Oman and squeezes Iran's UAE-run cash flows. Russian refinery strikes cut runs to a 24-year low, driving diesel cracks past $100 a barrel, while European freight rates collapse to six-month lows.
Chapters:
(01:28) Hormuz standoff and Trump's threats to Oman Trump threatens crushing sanctions and to bomb Oman as Iran's crude flow...
June Goh hosts this week with guest Jay Maroo, as Iran hardens its military stance and Hormuz risk lingers. They cover IEA and OPEC's diverging demand calls, ADNOC's transponder-dark shuttle tankers beating the blockade, a stubbornly wide Brent-Dubai EFS, and a tightening Atlantic diesel market.
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June Goh hosts Neil Crosby and Abhishek Kumar as Hormuz talks flip on and off again, smashing gasoline cracks. They cover Iranian tanker pileups, China's bigger export quotas, Russian diesel exemptions, Murban futures' wind-down, and a bullish fuel oil case into September.
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June Goh hosts Abhishek Kumar and Jorge Molinero as Brent swings from $100 to $85 to $93 in a week. They cover Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Suez rerouting costs, a tightening diesel market, and diverging crude premiums across Hormuz and Red Sea choke points.
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Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels loading at Yanbu leave seven million barrels of crude searching for a route. Felipe Elink Schuurman, James Noel-Beswick and Jay Maroo on Suezmax freight, why diesel still looks undervalued, and the crude spreads with room to run.
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Chapters:
(01:11) Risk stacks up: Houthis, Yanbu and CPC — Attacks on Saudi vessels at Yanbu and 1.5m...
Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and Jay Maroo on the collapsed Iran ceasefire, Brent's jump from 72 to 85, and the market fatigue no one's pricing. Diesel cracks and gasoline spreads hit records while crude stays quiet, with the Russian diesel ban now double the Hormuz problem.
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June Goh hosts her first episode with Abhishek Kumar as the US-Iran ceasefire cracks and Hormuz transits collapse to near zero. They cover Brent flipping back to backwardation, Russia's diesel export ban, China's product relaxation, European cracks near 60, the ADNOC tender, and a short HOGO trade idea.
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Felipe Elink Schuurman and research heads Neil Crosby, James Noel-Beswick, and Jorge Molinero mark episode 100 analyzing crude's peak weakness versus 10-year-high distillate rallies. Russia's refinery crisis, Hormuz rebalancing, and when stock replenishment becomes the real floor signal.
Chapters:
**(01:47) Hormuz reopens, but the real question is what comes next**
Neil Crosby, June Goh and Abhishek Kumar unpack Brent's shock flip into contango as Hormuz reopens and AG crude floods back. Dubai swaps at minus one, the "Asian crude buffet," a potential Russian diesel ban, and why jet looks weaker than diesel into summer.
Chapters:
(01:23) Brent flips to contango: the crude sell-off
Brent and Dubai flip into contango as Hormuz reopens...
Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and James Noel-Beswick dig into the signed Iran-US MOU and a market pricing rapid de-escalation. Crude under $80, Dubai swaps in contango, an oversold barrel. They weigh whether Hormuz reopens cleanly or shipping delays keep oil short for longer.
Chapters:
Neil Crosby hosts with Michael Ryan and June Goh. Growing Hormuz transits, a record 262 VLCC orders, Atlantic tonnage oversupply, softening Dubai premiums, and why Singapore VLSFO blend margins are building a bullish case into Q3.
Chapters:
(00:48) Atla...
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