John MacDonald: Here's why Luxon and Hipkins are neck-and-neck

If I asked you who you would rather go and have a beer with, Christopher Luxon or Chris Hipkins, who would you choose?  

I’d choose Luxon any day. One slight technicality is that he doesn’t drink. But he’d have a lime and soda or whatever he likes to drink, I’d have a beer and we’d probably have a very nice time.  

Reason being that on the occasions that I’ve met him in person, he comes across as a very good guy and good fun to be around. I’ve met Hipkins several times too, but I think he’d be a bit more earnest or serious than Luxon.  

So why isn’t that coming through in the poll results? Why aren’t there more people wanting to go and have a beer with Luxon?  

Why are there almost as many people who would choose have a drink with Chippy?  Which I know isn’t the official question polling companies ask voters, but you get what I mean. 

According to last night’s 1News-Verian poll, Christopher Luxon’s popularity as Prime Minister is the lowest it’s been in two years.  

Last night’s preferred prime minister result had him on 20%, and Labour’s Chris Hipkins breathing down his neck on 19% – which has all the headline writers predicting his demise.   

Here’s an example of one: “Luxon’s leadership running out of oxygen as polls tighten”.  

You may think these poll results are a load of nonsense, but I don’t. Because it wasn’t just the 1News poll that came out in the last 24 hours.   

We also had a Taxpayers Union poll out yesterday which showed a very similar result in preferred Prime Minister. That poll had Christopher Luxon on 20.2% and Chris Hipkins on 20.2%.  

So do I believe these poll results? Yes I do.   

And why do I think Christopher Luxon is so unpopular with voters? I’m taking my cue from National Party voters I’ve spoken to recently who are shaking their heads. 

The common themes that come through are that Luxon is letting Winston Peters and David Seymour run rings around him, that his government —especially his Finance Minister— isn’t delivering anything meaningful, and that he’s still blaming everything on the previous government. 

Not that the last government achieved much, but surely people expected the bar to be a bit higher with this government. So that’s why he is polling so low – people see him as a let down.  

He’s seen as weak, letting Seymour and Peters rule the roost and he doesn’t own the problems he’s trying to fix. He’s still pointing the finger at Labour more than halfway through his government’s three-year term. That’s letting him down big time.  

And people don’t think his government delivering them anything —especially on the economic front— and that he should be giving Nicola Willis the flick and giving someone else the finance job.   

Because these National voters I’ve spoken to are saying that she has been a big disappointment.  

But when you’re the leader of the party and when you’re the Prime Minister, you’re the one who cops it. And Christopher Luxon is copping it. And he deserves to cop it.  

And if we did go and have that drink – that’s what I’d be telling him.  

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Canterbury Morning's podcast with John McDonald
from News talks'd.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
Be you know, if you were to ask me who
I would rather go and have a beer with. If
you said who would you rather go and have a
beer with, Christopher Lucksen or Chris Heapkins, who do you
think I'd choose? I'd choose luxon any day. The only

(00:33):
slight technicality is that he doesn't drink, I gather, but
he'd have a line and soda or whatever he likes
to drink, either of a beer, and we would have
a very nice time. I'm sure now you might be
surprised by that choice of drinking buddy, especially if you
think my personal politics might have made it. Might have
made a beer with Chippy the hands down result.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
No.

Speaker 2 (00:56):
The reason I say Christopher Luckxen is that on the
occasions I've met him in person, he has come across
as a as a He's come across as a great guy,
and he has come across as someone who was fun
to be around. And I've met Chris Hipkins several times too,
But I reckon he would be He'd be a bit

(01:18):
more earnest, a bit more serious than Luxon if we
were to go for a beer. So why isn't that
coming through in the pole results? Why aren't there more
people wanting to go and have a beer with Christopher Luxen?
Why are there almost as many people who would like

(01:38):
to have a drink with Chippy as there are who
would go to the pub with the prime minister? Which
I know is it's not the official question that polling
companies ask voters, But you know what I mean, who
do you like? And according to last night's one used
variant poll Christopher Luxen, and you put the question who

(01:59):
do you like? Christopher Lucksen's popularity as prime minister is
the lowest it's been in two years. Last night's preferred
prime minister result had him on twenty percent and Labour's
Chris Hopkins breathing down his neck on nineteen percent, which
has got all the headline riders excited this morning predicting
his demise. He has an example of one of them,

(02:21):
Luckson's leadership running out of oxygen, as polls titan. Now,
you might think that these poles are nothing more than
a load of old nonsense. I mean, tell me if
you think that is the case. But I don't because
it wasn't just the one News poll that came out
in the last twenty four hours. We also had another

(02:41):
taxpayers union poll, the Curier poll, out yesterday, which showed
a very similar result in preferred prime minister. That poll
had Christopher Luckson on twenty point two percent and Chris
Hopkins I think he was about twenty point three. So
do I believe these pole results? Yes? I do. And
why do I think Christopher Luxin is so unpopular with voters? Well,

(03:05):
I'm taking my cue from not just my hunch and
my observations. I'm also taking my queue from national voters
I've spoken to recently, who I think is fee to say,
are just shaking their heads. And the common themes that
come through is that Luxin is leading, Winston Peters and
David Seymour run rings around him. That is government, especially

(03:26):
the Finance Minister, isn't delivering anything meaningful and he's still
blaming everything on the previous government. I mean, not that
the last government achieved much, but surely people expected the
bar to be a bit higher with this government. So
that's why he's polling so low. People see Christoph Luxen

(03:47):
as a letdown he's weak. He's seen as letting Seymour
and Peter's rule the roost, and he doesn't own the
problems he's trying to fix. He's still pointing the finger
at labor more than halfway through his government's three year term.
That's letting him down big time. And people don't think
his government is delivering them anything, especially on the economic front,

(04:08):
and that he should be giving Nicola Willis the flick
and give someone else the finance job, because these national
voters I've spoken to are saying that she's been a
big disappointment as well. But when you're leader of the
party and when you're the Prime Minister, you're the one
who cops it. And Christopher Luxen is copying it, and

(04:31):
in my book, he deserves to cop it. And if
we did go and have that beer, that's what I'd
be telling him.

Speaker 1 (04:41):
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