John MacDonald: New ferries by 2029? I'll believe it when I see it

Four more years. That's how long we’re going to have to wait for KiwiRail's new interisland ferries. But I reckon it will turn out being longer than that.  

The Government says it will be December 2029. By then, we will have had two elections.  

But I don’t think it will happen in that timeframe, because I listened this morning to someone who knows a bit about this. Mark Thompson’s his name. He was in charge of the Government’s ferry ministerial advisory group.   

He reckons the Government is a bit on the optimistic side, thinking the ferries can be here in four years’ time. 

He was talking this morning about decarbonisation within the maritime sector creating huge, worldwide demand for new ships. As he puts it, he thinks the Government will need its spinnaker up and calm seas to meet the deadline, because of what's happening internationally.  

Spinnaker up and a calm sea. A wing and a prayer. Fingers crossed. Sounds exactly like the way we do infrastructure here in New Zealand, doesn’t it?  

I thought Mark Thompson sounded pretty unimpressed with the announcement. That will be because the Government has ignored his committee’s advice to not go with ferries capable of carrying rail wagons.   

His advice was that ferries that could only carry trucks would be cheaper. But Winston, of course, was all-for ferries that can carry rail wagons from the get-go.  

So maybe Mark Thompson’s nose is out of joint a bit. But I’m listening to what he has to say. Because he’s the guy who looked into this whole ferry thing after Finance Minister Nicola Willis pulled the plug on the former Labour government’s iReX project.  

Winston Peters isn’t buying any talk about delays though and says the new ferries will be here by the end of 2029.

But when you dig further into his announcement yesterday, you see that he’s talking about the ferries being no frills, on one hand, but also saying that many of the costs he’s cutting will need to be paid for somehow in the future.  

And these are the costs for the on-land facilities at Picton and Wellington – which he’s suggesting will have to be covered by the ports themselves.  

He’s saying that investment is needed at Picton, but he reckons the facilities in Wellington have got another 30 years in them.  

Again, doesn’t that sound so familiar when it comes to infrastructure in this country? “We can get away with what we’ve got for a bit longer” – the same for the ferries themselves. The ones that keep clapping out.  

As for the new ships - if we do end up competing with the rest of the world for new vessels because of a global influx of orders, we could end up waiting more than four years.  

That's why I’ll believe it when I see it.  

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Canterbury Morning's podcast with John McDonald
from newstalksb.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Four more years that's how long we're gonna have to
wait for Kiwi Rail's new intra item ferries. But I
reckon it'll turn out being longer than that. The government
says it'll be December twenty twenty nine. We will have
we will have just had another election and Rail Minister

(00:33):
Winston Peters will be in his eighty fifth year. So
I've got an election next year, but it'll be after
the election after that before the fairies get here and
that's all going well, And I don't know. I don't
think it'll happen in that timeframe. I think that because
I listened this morning to someone who knows a bit
about this, Mark Thompson's his name. You might have heard

(00:55):
him talking to Mike as well earlier. He was in
charge of the government's Faery Ministerial Advisory Group, and he
told Mike this morning that he reckons the government is
a bit on the optimistic side of things, thinking the
fairies can be here in four years time.

Speaker 3 (01:12):
I think that's a challenge. We know that from our
work in the shipyards in Europe. Last year that there's
a lot of activity up there, and there's currently changes
in regulations around fuel and everything that current ferry operators

(01:34):
in Europe been sitting on their hands waiting for some
sort of steer on future fuel requirements. So there is
a possibility there will be an influx of orders that
could could compromise the timeline that the Winston's talking about.
But it's tight. You know, four years from go the

(01:56):
woe everything will have to you know, you'll have to
have your spinnaker up and have a calm sea.

Speaker 2 (02:03):
Spinnaker up and a calm sea otherwise to put in
that on a wing in a prayer or fingers crossed,
which sounds exactly like the way we do infrastructure here
in New Zealand, doesn't it.

Speaker 3 (02:16):
I thought.

Speaker 2 (02:17):
I thought Mark Thompson, by the way, sounded pretty unimpressed
with the government's announcement, but that'll be because the government
has ignored his committee, his committee's advice to not go
with fairies capable of carrying rail wagons. His advice to
the government was it fairies that could only carry trucks
would be cheaper, But of course Winston was all four
fairies that can carry rail wagons from the get go,

(02:40):
wasn't he. So maybe Mark Thompson's nose is a bit
out of joint, But I'm listening to what he has
to say. I'm listening to him because he's the guy
that looked into this whole fairy thing after Finance Minister
Nikola Willis pulled the plug on the former Labor government's
Irex project. But Winston Peters isn't buying any talk about
delays and says twenty twenty nine, the fairies will be here.

Speaker 4 (03:02):
Well, we're seriously confident about that because we've talked to
some of the shipbuilders. I went and saw the Koreans
and talked them about the mess that they were having
to deal with. How we'd handle it. The so called
break fee with them is going to be far less
than three hundred million. They understand they want to be
a competitor, but we've also got other competitors in there
as well. We cannot tell you who they're going to

(03:23):
be so that they don't know each other and can
scheme up against us. We're going to go about this
what you do as a tough trader, and then sure
we get the best outcome. So I'm very confident going
forward that what we're going to have is what this
country needs. In fact, Mike U Kate massivating the dog
and hop on there and get to the south aist.

Speaker 2 (03:41):
Just like when you dig further into this announcement yesterday,
you see that Winster Peters is talking about the fairies
being no frills on one hand, but he's also saying
that many of the costs he's cutting will need to
be paid for somehow in the future. And these are
the costs for the on land facilities that picked in
in and Wellington, which he's suggesting we'll have to be

(04:04):
covered by the ports. He says that investment is needed
at Picton Lordie is there ever? Have you been there recently?
But he's suggesting that Wellington's got another thirty years in it.
This is the on land infrastructure. But again, doesn't that
sound so familiar when it comes to infrastructure in this country. Oh,

(04:26):
we can get away with that. We've got a bit
longer in it, We've got a bit more life in it,
which is the same for the fairies themselves, the ones
that keep clapping out or going astray on automatic pilot.
We're going to be relying on those dungers until Christmas
twenty twenty nine, So it's more than four years, actually,
isn't it. It's four and a half years. But I

(04:48):
will believe it when I see it, because yes, the
ships themselves might end up being cheaper, but the opportunity
cost will be huge and as we both know, when
it comes to things like on land infrastructure, it is
never cheaper than it is right now. And as for
the ships themselves, what seems that will be competing with
the rest of the world for new fairies. That will

(05:09):
be an influx of orders, which Mark Thompson from the
government's Fery Ministerial Advisory Group reckons could mean us waiting
longer than four years. So when Son Peter says they'll
be here by Christmas twenty twenty nine, the guy who
was in charge of the Fairy Advisory Group says that'll
only happen if everything goes our way, and I'm saying
I'll believe it when I see it.

Speaker 1 (05:30):
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