John MacDonald: Population growth is fine, but are we ready?

When you look around Greater Christchurch, do you look around and think “oh, we could handle another 100-or-so thousand people living here”? 

Do you think to yourself “our roads aren’t clogged up, our schools aren’t overcrowded, we’ve got plenty of houses”? Do you think that? 

Or does it feel to you like we’re just getting by with what we’ve got, with the population we’ve got? 

I think we’re just getting by and, if we don’t wake up, we’re going to be another Auckland before we know it.  

There are a couple of things today that have got me thinking about this. The first is this report from the Infrastructure Commission which pretty much says —when it comes to infrastructure— we kind of know what we need to do, and we just need to do it. 

And one of the key issues it identifies is population growth and how we’re going to deal with it. 

The other thing that’s got me thinking about how disorganised we are for having a truckload more people living here is what Selwyn mayor Sam Broughton is saying today about population growth in his area. He’s saying that, in 10 years time, the population of Selwyn will be bigger than the population of Dunedin. 

Dunedin’s population by the way is currently about 130,000. And Sam Broughton thinks there’ll be more people than that living in Selwyn in 10 years time. 

Rolleston, especially, is going nuts. As of last year, the population of Rolleston was 29,600. Almost triple what it was in 2013. As for the population of the wider Selwyn district - as of last year, it was 81,300, which was a 5.2% increase on the year before. 

Compare that to the whole country’s population growth over the same period - which was 2.1%. So nationally, 2.1% population growth. In Selwyn, 5.2%. And these are the numbers that have prompted Sam Broughton to say that, 10 years from now, there’ll be more people living in Selwyn than Dunedin. 

And it’s not just Selwyn. It seems to me that the whole of Greater Christchurch is going nuts - or not far away from going nuts, anyway. 

Let’s look at Christchurch city’s population. At the moment —according to the Christchurch City Council website— the population in the city is 396,200 – that’s as of June last year. 

After the earthquakes, the numbers went down by about 21,000 people. But things have bounced back - in fact, they had bounced back by 2017. And, it seems to me, that there’s no shortage of people wanting to come here from around the country. 

The universities —Lincoln and UC— are going off big time, which is such a change from how things were after the quakes. 

And, as for population growth in Christchurch, the numbers in terms of projections seem to vary a bit but there’s no doubt the city is going to have more people —not less— in the future. Numbers I’ve seen this morning say the population of Christchurch could be as high as 445,000 in 10 years time, and well over half a million in about 15 years time. 

So, a lot of variables, but there’s going to be more people here in a pretty short time. 

Are we ready for that? I don’t think we are. At least when you consider how things are at the moment. 

We’ve got someone here at work who says it can take her 45 minutes to get from where we are on Armagh Street by the Margaret Mahy playground - it can take her 45 minutes in the evenings to get from here to Brougham Street. And then she’s got the drive to Rolleston from there. 

I don’t think we’re ready when you consider the likes of Cashmere High School making its zone smaller and smaller in recent years because it’s struggling to cope with the number of kids living in its enrolment area. 

I don’t think

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Canterbury Morning's Podcast with John McDonald
from News Talk ZB.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
When you look around christ Church, when you look around
the greater christ Churcheria, do you think yourself, Oh, we
can handle another one hundred or so thousand people living here.
We can handle that easily. Yeah. Do you think to yourself?
Our roads aren't clogged up, our schools aren't overcrowded, there
are plenty of houses. Do you think Do you think

(00:34):
that to yourself? Or does it feel to you if
you do, think that you're dreaming or does it feel
to you like we're just getting by with what we've got,
with the population we've got. I think we're just getting by,
just getting by, and if we don't wake up, we're
going to be another Auckland before we know it. And
there are a couple of things today that they've got

(00:56):
to be thinking about this. The first is this report
from the Infrastructure Commission, which pretty much says I've been
through it, you don't need to read it. It pretty
much says, when it comes to infrastructure, we kind of
know what we need to do, need to do, and
we just need to do it. How about that? For paraphrasing,
but one of the key issues that identifies is population

(01:16):
growth and how we're going to deal with it. And
the other thing that's got me thinking about how disorganized
we are for having a truckload more people living here
is what Selwyn me or Sam Broughton is saying today
about population growth in his area. Get this, He's saying
today that in ten years time the population of Selwyn

(01:36):
will be bigger than the population of Dunedin. Dunedin's population,
by the way, it's currently about one hundred and thirty thousand,
and Sam Broughton thinks there'll be more people than that
living in Selwyn in ten years time. Rolliston, especially the
town of the future, it's going nuts. As of last year,

(01:56):
population of Roliston was twenty nine thousand, six hundred, almost
triple what it was in twenty thirteen. As for the
population of the wider Selwyn district, as of last year,
it was eighty one thousand, three hundred, which was a
five point two percent increase on the year before. So
compare that to growth around the country over the same period,

(02:19):
which was two point one percent. So nationally two point
one percent population growth in Selwyn five point two percent
and these are the kinds of numbers that have prompted
Sam Broughton to say ten years from now there'll be
more people living in Selwyn than Dunedin. And it's not
just Selwyn, by the way, it seems to me that
the whole Greater christ Church area is going nuts. So

(02:39):
we're talking Selwyn, christ Church, Weymaker, Early, the whole shebang.
And if it's not going nuts population wise, it's not
far away from going nuts anyway. Let's look at Let's
look at christ Church City's population at the moment. According
to the Christiach City Council website, the population in the
city is three hundred ninety six thousand, two hundred people.
That's as at June last year. It's the most recent

(03:01):
figure we've got After the quakes. Population, you know, a
few people skip town vipulation went down by about twenty
one thousand people. But things have bounced back. In fact,
they had bounced back by twenty seventeen. By twenty seventeen,
numbers were back to pre quake levels. And it seems
to me these days and today that there is no

(03:21):
shortage of people wanting to come here from around the country.
I mean, the evidence is all around you universities Lincoln,
and you see they're going off big time. Kids are
clamoring to come to those universities, which is such a
change from how things were after the quakes. And as
for population growth in christ Church, the numbers in terms

(03:42):
of projection seem to vary, but there's no doubt the
city is going to have more people, not less, way
more people, not less in the future, and that future
isn't very far away. Numbers I've seen this morning, so
the population of christ Church City could be as high
as four hundred and forty five thousand and ten years time,

(04:02):
and well over half a million in about fifteen years time.
Few variables there, but there's going to be more people
here in a pretty short time. Here's the question, are
we ready for that? Are we doing enough to be
ready for it? And I don't think we are, at
least when you consider how things are at the moment.

(04:23):
We've got someone here at work who says it can
take her forty five minutes to get from where we
are on Armor Street by the Margaret Mayhee Playground. It
can take her forty five minutes in the evenings to
get from here to Brahm Street and then she's got
the drive to Roliston from there. Doesn't sound to me
like it's a city ready for such major growth and

(04:43):
around it. I don't think we're ready when you consider
the likes of Kashmere High School making its zone smaller
and smaller in recent years because it's a struggling to
cope with the number of kids living in and it's
enrollment area. I don't think when we're ready when you
consider that we still done have properly functioning infrastructure like
the fire damaged to wastewater plant and that organics plant.

(05:06):
It's been making life miserable for people in the East
for so long. Brahm Street, the traffic on Brahm Street.
Do you reckon that piece of roads ready to cope
with gazillions more people coming in from Roliston. Of Sam
Broughton's right, and there are more people living in Selwyn
than Dunedin in ten years time, then we're going to
need some pretty serious changes there, aren't we, Especially when

(05:28):
you consider that stat that was thrown around at the
time of the Big Stadium debate that fifty percent of
the people who currently live in Selwyn travel into christ
Church every day for work, school, and other things. So
you think about all of those things, and I don't
think we are ready for population growth of any sort.
And I think we need to wake up For more

Speaker 1 (05:51):
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