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October 7, 2025 • 34 mins

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Wednesday October 8th 2025, ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner shares her thoughts on what will happen with the OCR. 

The Government letting NZ Post cut back to just two delivery days a week in towns John Maynard co-president of the Postal Workers Union tells Ryan about the impacts it'll have on the workforce. 

School attendance is back up to pre-covid levels, PPTA President Chris Abercrombie tells Ryan how much of difference he's seen with truancy. 

Plus, UK/Europe Correspondent Gavin Grey has the latest on UK students ignoring pleas by the UK PM not to join pro-Palestinian protests and the latest with the French political crisis. 

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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The issues, the interviews and the insight. Ryan Bridge on
earlier this show with r V Supercenter explore r V
successories and servicing all in one news talks.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
They'd be good morning in a six after five coming
up Sharon's owner on the OCR Gavin Gray in the UK.
For us, we have fewer letters and the post less often,
but more kids in school more often, which is good.
WTF Stuart Nash and we've got global dairy trade numbers
for you this morning. The agenda Wednesday, the eighth of October,
two years since Hummas unleashed hell on Israel.

Speaker 3 (00:35):
We expect that it will be one month, two months,
three months, but two years it's a very long time.
Every second we look at the news what happened, and
I'm afraid that this since fire is not completed and
the work comes back to us.

Speaker 2 (00:53):
Of course, the hell's gone both ways since then. In Egypt,
the talks continue.

Speaker 4 (00:57):
It is a gap between what Israel want to just
us and what Hamas want to discuss.

Speaker 5 (01:01):
Well.

Speaker 4 (01:02):
Israel want to focus on the technical issue and only
care about the hostages, but Hamas wanted to talk about
the guarantee that is seeking from the mediators, especially the
Americans that Israel will not resume the fighting.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
French, You've got a lot on their plate this morning.
Need to find a new PM, need to pass a budget,
need to figure out their political crisis. So who better
to sort out that mess than the guy who just
resigned after failing to do all of the above for
the past three weeks. Yes, that's right, mccron has shoulder
tapped the corner rather to sort it out. He's got
forty eight hours.

Speaker 5 (01:36):
Why in forty eight hours should especially the Corno not
be able to do what he had three and a
half weeks to do before that is to find some
kind of arrangement with the parties. So maybe when they're
right up against a deadline, there'll be some gives somewhere,
But frankly, I don't think any of us can really
see where that's going to come.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Finally, Taylor Swift news because you can't do a bulletin
without her Super Bowl notes. She's not doing that, thank
you very much. Doesn't want to cramp the fiance style.

Speaker 6 (02:05):
The whole season.

Speaker 7 (02:06):
I am locked in on what that man is doing
on the field. Can you imagine if like he's out
there every single.

Speaker 8 (02:14):
Week, like putting his life on the line doing this.

Speaker 7 (02:17):
Very dangerous, very high pressure, high intensity sport.

Speaker 5 (02:21):
And I'm like, I wonder what my choreo should be.

Speaker 1 (02:26):
The news you need this morning and the in depth
analysis this early edition with Ryan Bridge and r V
Supercenter explore r v's accessories and servicing all in one
news talks.

Speaker 2 (02:37):
That'd be great to have your company on Wednesday morning.
The Left will get to your tech shortly. Some of
you already come through a nine two nine to two.
The left's doing this thing again where it all falls
apart at the seams. You've got labor with no policies now,
I think so scared to tell anyone what they really
think that, you know, unless those protest poles that have
been going their way turn the other way, you've got

(02:59):
thees and on the political spectrum, I no longer consider
them left or right. They're just hypocritical. They are at
hypocritical on the political spectrum. And then there's Departi Marti
internal ructions worse than Netball New Zealand And about his
secret too. Except for this MP's son, Edit Kapakini, who says, basically,
the things run like a dictatorship.

Speaker 5 (03:20):
But he's made some serious claims.

Speaker 9 (03:23):
Yeah, I know, but look, we don't answer claims and allegations.

Speaker 2 (03:26):
They're chasing JT outside the beehive as they do all
of this. On One News last night.

Speaker 10 (03:31):
He said that you're operating a dictatorship model.

Speaker 11 (03:34):
Mister Tomah, what you say to that? It's a beautiful thing.

Speaker 2 (03:40):
Now there's a new carriage being added to this train wreck.
Maria Meno Kupakini. This is the Departy Mardi MP overspent
her budget. She hasn't explained why. She says it's private
and she'd prefer not to, thank you very much. This
is not her personal household cleaning budget. By the way,
this is the money that we earn and we pay
them in tax. The party might have leaked this fact

(04:02):
to discredit her. And all of this together, you've got
what I said would happen all along. These guys won't
be getting anywhere near the treasury ventures come twenty twenty six,
even if the Reserve Bank today decides, which would be
entirely possible given their record, not to cut the ocr
to keep it forever at three percent. The economy kept sliding,

(04:23):
people losing their jobs, growth stalling again, the world caving
in the sky caving in. I still think Kiwis would
stick with the devil. They know this election is one
hundred percent the coalitions to lose Bridge even after five
News Talks AB. We'll get to the dairy trade auction
numbers next and the reason kids are back in school.

Speaker 1 (04:45):
Get ahead of the headlines on early edition with Bryan
Bridge and r V Supercenter explore RV's accessories and servicing
all in one News TALKSB five p thirteen.

Speaker 2 (04:56):
Global dairy trade auction overnight down one point six percent,
which is not good to be going backwards. Skim milk
powdered down zero point five, whole milk powdered down two
point three and butter for those who like putting it
on their toast down three percent. The numbers from just
Hot off the Press five point thirteen, Ryan Bred also
Carne's meeting Trump at the White House at the moment

(05:18):
will bring you anything interesting that they've got to say.
They're talking trade in Gaza and Pam Bondi is taking
questions on Epstein, so we'll keep you across that too.
The ERO, the Education Review Office, has given us some
good news this morning. School attendance back up to pre
COVID levels. Sixty percent regularly showing up to class, which
is good. Eighty percent of kids think that school is

(05:39):
important for their future. Well, thank god. That's up to
Chris Abercrombie PPTA present with me this morning. Chris, good morning,
good morning. Well that's good news. Is this parents making
them go? I see that parents are are less comfortable
with them having time off in the survey too.

Speaker 6 (05:55):
It's going to everything. So it's sort of it's been
a team event. Has been schools working really hard to
change attitude. Has been parents listening to what's going on
and making decisions. So there's been a real team effort.

Speaker 2 (06:07):
Do we say that this is David cmour and has
get tough and get the message out, Maybe not get tough,
but get the message out there. Is that working?

Speaker 6 (06:16):
I think definitely. Sort of having it as a focus
has helped. I mean schools have been working on this since,
you know, after COVID, but I mean having that extra
focus has definitely helped.

Speaker 2 (06:25):
Do you think having the punishment or the talk of
punishment helps too.

Speaker 6 (06:30):
I think for certain groups the sort of the legal
aspect of it definitely helps. But you know, I think
for those those hardcore truant students or families that sort
of need their support. I don't think that's helping.

Speaker 2 (06:45):
No, I don't think so either, But hopeful of the
announcement they made this week will do something about that. Hey,
how many days off have we got? Have kids got
for strikes and teacher ai days this year? Do we know?

Speaker 6 (06:58):
Also from secondary we had one strike and a number
of rostering home days and for teacherraining days. I think
there's four this year to approve by the government and
two available to schools.

Speaker 2 (07:10):
Okay, So if you add up a minute, if you
take your kids out of school for a week, you're
adding the teacher. Any days you add in the strikes,
you're adding the holidays. Things start to look a bit grim.

Speaker 6 (07:22):
Yeah. So it was clearing the report too that their holidays,
kids taking time in holidays in school time was still
a missory for schools. So I think, you know, everyone
agrees it's really important to be at school and focused
on what we focused on, getting their teacher and learning happening.

Speaker 2 (07:38):
All right, brilliant, appreciate your time. Chris Chris Abercrombie with
us this morning from the PPT out sixteen minutes after
five those kids and guards aren't going to school, are they.
So if you are in New Zealand and you have
the opportunity to go to school, your bloody well should
be there.

Speaker 1 (07:53):
On your radio and online on iheard radio early edition
with Ryan Bridge, and are these super? Said explorervi eccess
or he's hand servicing Paul in.

Speaker 2 (08:03):
One news talk sa'd be five eighteen morning, Ryan says, Byron,
how are you? I'm good to thank you Byron. How's Fanny?
That's my dog, she's good too. Thanks for asking. The
Reserve Bank must drop by fifty points today, he says. Also,
Stuart Nash, other than flexing his muscles, he has absolutely
stuffed his career. Silly man. I tend to agree with you,
and I really like Stuart Nash because I think he's

(08:24):
he's funny, he's affable, he's not a stiff weird politician.
But I'd read you the text that he's sent to
Todd McClay. This is the Trade minister over was meant
to go on a delegation. You'll remember this. This is
after the infamous p's and T's comment but too much
for breakfast, but there we go. So after this he

(08:46):
gets turfed out of the plane and that you're not
coming to this event over in America anymore. He texts
McLay at September eleven, eight p fifty eight pm. So
have you really thrown me off this delegation because of
something I said on Tuesday? But have completely owned an
accepted responsibility for, and apologized for fulsome le WTF. It

(09:08):
was followed up by a second text from Nash saying
I've pulled out Stuart. You've already been dropped okay, and
you're having a conversation with yourself. Come on, you're better
than this. Stuart Nash told McLay in a later text
he was so pissed off with your statement to Radio
New Zealand and called it pretty effing amateur mate. Now,

(09:29):
for Stuart Nash, the question is how tolerant is Winston
Peter's That's really what this comes down to. We know
Winston Peters doesn't like foul language. We know that Winston
Peters likes a bit of decorum. So is Stuart Nash
proving himself a bit too much of a hot head
for even Winston Peters to handle? That's the question. Twenty
after five, Now the post you shake up the government

(09:49):
letting New Zealand Post cut back to just two delivery
days a week in town's three in rural areas. Nothing
changing straight away, but the lever's there to pull. John
Maynard as co president of the Postal Workers Union and
good morning, John.

Speaker 6 (10:01):
Are good morning your thoughts.

Speaker 11 (10:04):
Well, it's not entirely unexpected because we've been very critical
of New Zealand Posts really failing to fight its corner
and energetically comply if you like, with the State and
Enterprises Act. It's required the companies required to operate as
a private company like any other private company, but they

(10:25):
also have a requirement in the State and Enterprises Act
to have regard for the interests of the community, and
that proposal is from Nby allowing New ziem Post to
drop rural delivery to three days a week is a
huge for the people living in those areas and of
course for the relationship they had with the courier, with

(10:45):
the post. Real delivery drivers who delivered their mail was
six days a week. Now it's five days a week.
Their mail and their supplies.

Speaker 2 (10:53):
John, most people listening to this probably haven't sent a Lisa,
and I don't know years you know, do we have
to be practiced one reasonable about this.

Speaker 11 (11:04):
They may not have sent too many letters, but they
get letters. They get mail, and particularly people in the
rural areas. We know there's a very strong reaction from
them when it went from six days to five, so
we understand they'll be pretty upset when it goes from
five to four. But they don't just get mail. They
do get other supplies. And yes, New Zealand Post is

(11:24):
required to operate as any other company and make a
profit and the government governments have been really strict on
New Zealand Post returning a dividend to the government, so
it's almost like it's more important to return to give
dividend to the government than to provide the sort of
service that's really important for people in rural areas.

Speaker 2 (11:45):
John, appreciate your time this morning, Thanks so much for
being with me. That's John Mayne and co president of
the Postal Workers' Union. Interestingly, five percent of deliveries are
going to move to a cluster delivery. And you'd think,
what is a cluster delivery? Is a cluster does it
not come? No, it means that they won't be delivered
to individual mailboxes. They will be delivered to drop off points,

(12:07):
and apparently new developments are being told that they've got
to include an area for this to happen. So you
have like a communal letterbox and then you go and
pick up your mail from there, as opposed to having
everybody having eached their own individual one twenty two minutes
after five year on news TALKSB.

Speaker 1 (12:25):
The early edition Full the Show podcast on IHARM Radio
Power by News TALKSB News TALKSB.

Speaker 2 (12:32):
It's five twenty four. Regular listeners will know when it
comes to free speech, well, I'm pretty into it. How
else do we get smarter but to debate ideas, put
them through the ringer, shout and scream and reason and argue.
We've been doing it since we could talk, which is
well a very long time. When the Maga mob came
for Jimmy Kimmel, I defended him on this program. Many
of you agreed, some of you did not, which is

(12:53):
what we call an argument, and hey, that's okay too.
So yesterday when the Talco when one end Z dis
id to pull those ads with the activist, I had
a genuine moral conundrum. See, I think people should be
able to protest, not in work uniform. Obviously, and not
get the sack. I don't like canceling people. In this case,

(13:16):
the fact she gave out Winston's address on the Internet
probably crosses the line. But if we're being honest, did
it need to take a crowbar through his front window
shattering glass onto poor Kobe the dog for the head
honchos at one end z er take action. She's been
plastered all over the news for sharing his address for
days before crowbar glass. I don't like that she's been canceled,

(13:37):
to be honest with you, but I can see why
they did it. And as for activists more generally, apparently
there's a shortened street actor packing his bag for some
flotilla somewhere. They're just annoying, aren't they. Don't you just
find them annoying, Whether it's the priest settle chaining themselves
to an electroc office, just annoying. You know, who doesn't
need a lecture on jigo politics of the Middle East

(13:59):
from a guy who where's a fake setoscope for a living?

Speaker 6 (14:02):
Like?

Speaker 2 (14:03):
What do they think? Anyway? In most cases, the real
subject matter, of course is themselves. In most cases they
achieve nothing, and in most cases they're ignored and the
beauty of democracy along with freedom of speech. Is that
we can do that?

Speaker 11 (14:18):
Brian Bridge, twenty.

Speaker 2 (14:20):
Six after five. So Karney is meeting with Trump at
the White House right now. They're sitting down.

Speaker 6 (14:24):
In front of it.

Speaker 2 (14:25):
Every time we look at this fireplace, there's more gold. Anyway,
they're having a weed chat. Is it going, well? You
be the judge of that.

Speaker 12 (14:39):
Well, it's a complicated agreement, more complicated maybe than any
other agreement we have on trade. Because you know, we
have natural conflict, we also.

Speaker 6 (14:48):
Have mutual love.

Speaker 12 (14:48):
You know, we have great love for each other. I
love this, I love Canada and the people of Canada,
and Mark feels the same way about here. The problem
we have is that they're want a car company and
I they want a co company, meaning the US wants
the car company, and they want steel and we want steal.

Speaker 2 (15:07):
So it's just going like that. Basically, they will talk
about Gaza at some point as well. Twenty seven minutes
after five. Now over in the EU they have decided
Britain's packing themselves the steel industry there. The EU wants
to fight Trump on tariff. They want to double the
steel towers to fifty percent. Why would the Brits care.
Why are they so panicked? Well, not only do they

(15:29):
export eighty percent of what they make to the EU,
but they will get dumped on. So all of the
steel from around the world that's going to be tariffed
in these other places will get dumped on them and
the local steel will miss out. This is what they're
worried about. All part of trade negotiations between the EU
and Trump that's going on at the moment. But they
are just negotiations, so still ongoing in Brussels. Now, you

(15:51):
know how we talked about Chloe you Swarbrick going over
to the UKGE not so long ago. She met with
the Green leader Zach Plansky, and someone sent me in
emailed yesterday. I hadn't seen this. This is Zach Polanski's
first media interview after becoming leader of the Greens in
the UK.

Speaker 7 (16:08):
Well, the fact is these are recordings out of contact.
I don't know what was being discussed before he said that,
but in and of itself, it's a factual statement. If
he said he didn't see another white face, he might
have been making an observation. There's nothing wrong with making observations.

Speaker 2 (16:23):
Sorry, wrong clip. Then we're talking there about different got
our MPs mixed up. This is actually we wanted to
come back to this and figure out what's going on
here with the audio. But basically he was accused and
he sort of says, oh, maybe I did, maybe I didn't,
But he was accused of going to a clinic in
London and hypnotizing women into thinking that their breasts could

(16:47):
get bigger. This is the Green leader in the UK anyway,
very busy that I didn't deny it completely either. We'll
bring you that later in the show. Also the OCR
before six Here on Newstalks, be.

Speaker 13 (17:18):
You set my Heart on the feeder.

Speaker 1 (17:25):
Views and Views you Trust to start your day, It's
early Dship with Bryan Bridge and r V Supercenter explore
r VS accessories and servicing. Fall and one News Talks
at b.

Speaker 2 (17:42):
Twenty four away from six year on News Talks deb
coming up. Sharon Zolner on the OCR before Top of
the Hour, and We're in the UK with Gavin Gray
on October the seventh, Ryan, I agree about the protests.
They won't make an iota of difference, but good on them.
It's a free world. They can do what they like.
This is from a pale mail stale. This is the
Green leader Zach Polanski over in the UK. I said

(18:03):
that the Green co leader here had been on a
weed trip as we sojourn over to Britain recently and
met with the sky. And this is just picture. This
is your first day as the leader of a political party.
Big day, got your tie on, straight, looking good, going
into a TV studio, going to be interviewed by the

(18:23):
big wigs on the breakfast show, on the morning Brickfast
Show over there, and he's hit with this.

Speaker 13 (18:28):
Let's talk to that Planski.

Speaker 14 (18:29):
Hello, good morning, good morning, thanks having me.

Speaker 13 (18:31):
Welcome. So this is a rather awkward from page for you,
isn't it. The Daily Star Waabooby new Green Party leaders
at Blansky sorry for giving women breast enlargements by hypnosis.
Not the start you'd imagine.

Speaker 2 (18:48):
Certainly not. And it didn't stop there.

Speaker 13 (18:50):
In the Star today it says you admitted you carried
out the bizarre practice at a clinic in Harley Street
where you told women to picture themselves with bigger boobs.

Speaker 14 (19:06):
I want to tax multi millionaires and billionaires. I come
on your show on my first day as Green Party leader,
and this is the conversation that we want.

Speaker 2 (19:15):
I'm here to the text the ricks. Thank you very much.
Turn you two away from six. Calum Proctor under need
for us Callum, good morning, morning. Right, Southern councils are
pulling their resources to keep the taps running.

Speaker 15 (19:27):
Yeah they are. The Central, Otago, Kluther and Gore local
bodies have all signed off on this joint water services
delivery plan. It's the first of it's kind under the
Government's Local Water Done Well Framework and so what it
means is from July twenty twenty seven, Southern Water will
manage drinking, waste and stormwater across those three districts. It'll

(19:48):
be the largest joint entity in the South Island. The
Kluther chief executive for Steve Hill, He's told us this
will give them a clear path to sustainable services and
also future growth. Now the focus is on recruiting for
key leadership roles and getting its foundation documents prepared.

Speaker 2 (20:04):
Nice one.

Speaker 15 (20:04):
How's your weather partly cloudy? Is strong nor'wester today? The
high twenty cheers.

Speaker 2 (20:09):
Callum Pleaus in christ Church Take Claire, good morning, So
rural Canterbury, they'll be happy with the cops you turn
on this stationary structure.

Speaker 16 (20:17):
Yeah, absolutely happy. Look This was the proposal that we've
been speaking about for some time now, Ryan, where some
permanent officers would have been replaced with staff based at
these twenty four to seven hubs in the likes of
Rolliston and Di Dungi Order. Obviously, community feedback was strong
and did prompt police to ask for some public feedback
in August. More than a thousand submissions were received. Many

(20:40):
affected communities were very against the plan of losing their
rural cops. Federated Farmer's provincial president at Carl Deane says
the whole process was communicated very poorly. He hopes it's
a wake up call for other district commanders who might
be thinking about doing this in their areas. He says, Look,
it's quite clear rural communities just won't take it. Association

(21:00):
President Chris Carhill ads that police needs to get out
into their communities and listen to concerns when making such
big changes.

Speaker 2 (21:08):
All right, how should wear the clear.

Speaker 16 (21:10):
Should be fine here today gusty Northwesterly is developing a
bit later than dying out, a high of eighteen.

Speaker 2 (21:15):
All right, Max in Wellington, Max, good morning, Good morning.
ACC's cracking down on the working from home rules. What's
going on?

Speaker 9 (21:23):
Yeah, we spoke of this last month. An update in
the post this morning. ACC indeed tightening its hybrid working rules,
forcing workers to come into the office more often. Some
of these people are furious that'd gotten well used to
rolling out of bed flicking open their laptops in their pjs.
The union's getting involved. Three days a week in the
office now mandatory. Sounds reasonable. It to fix a growing

(21:45):
issue as well. Departments employees were becoming siloed at ACC.
Unintended hierarchies were emerging. A rather odd comment by the
Green Party in response to this, Public Service spokesperson Francisco
Hernandez says, rest restricting high hybrid working is only punching
down on public servants. Okay, it follows a culture review
staff in one team in the office less than a

(22:08):
day of week Friday, the most common laptop in pj's day.
But it's all changing by the end of the year.
The mind boggles. Has your weather fine today? Northerly's is
strong this afternoon sixteen the high.

Speaker 2 (22:20):
Nice fun Neva in Auckland Morning Neva ratings. What's going
on with the Hodaki golf.

Speaker 8 (22:25):
Well quite exciting, actually so The Hodaki Golf Marine Protection
Bill finally pass its third reading. Now this happened yesterday.
What this means is that it's increasing the protected area
of the Gulf by twenty times. This is from zero
point three to six percent. So it includes twelve new
high protection areas stretching about eight hundred square kilometers. The

(22:45):
Hodaki GLF Forum coach here, that's Nicola Rata MacDonald. She
says the bill this is the result of many, many, many,
many years of advocacy, so they're very happy about this one.

Speaker 2 (22:56):
Brilliant. I've got this button bar thing that I've been
trying to use. What's the weather doing today?

Speaker 7 (23:08):
I thought is breaking news?

Speaker 2 (23:10):
Having desperate to get it in the show?

Speaker 8 (23:12):
Can can you do it again?

Speaker 17 (23:13):
Hang on?

Speaker 2 (23:14):
All right?

Speaker 8 (23:15):
Have you found it? What are we going to call it?
Early edition?

Speaker 5 (23:19):
Ryan?

Speaker 2 (23:20):
It'll be the weather sting?

Speaker 6 (23:21):
All right?

Speaker 2 (23:22):
Yeah, here we go.

Speaker 8 (23:23):
Neither weather partly cloudy with increasing fine spells in Auckland City.
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Speaker 2 (23:33):
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Speaker 1 (24:32):
International correspondence with Ens and Eye Insurance, Peace of mind
for New Zealand business.

Speaker 2 (24:38):
Just gone card it to sixth Starmer says, don't go
out and protest October seventh. Are they listening? Let's go
to Gavin Gray are UK europe Correspondent Gavin.

Speaker 14 (24:47):
Ryan. They most certainly are not. So we've had students
out on the streets across London from different universities, but
also Adam, we're in Scotland, Belfast in Northern Ireland and
elsewhere in the UK, Sheffield, manch Bristol and Leeds, and
the resounding message to Sekiirstama is well, look, actually, yep, okay,
we're sorry for what happened a couple of years back

(25:10):
on the October the seventh Hammos attack on Israel, but
that is not what we are protesting about. We are
protesting about the treatment of people currently in Gaza. Indeed,
one of the protesters at Sheffield said, what is insensitive
is that there has been two years of genocide and
conflating the actions of Binyaminnett Naho with Judaism is actually

(25:31):
anti Semitic. Carrying on this Jewish people are not pro
genocide and Palestinians are starving right now, lots of angry
students on the streets, and frankly, every time I think
our Prime minister says please show a little respect for others,
I think it kind of makes them even more angry
and said that isn't the point here and this is
not what we're going to do. And so consequently, yeah,

(25:53):
we've seen plenty of marches today, and let's not forget
Ryan that on Saturday police in London arrested nearly five
hundred people during protests and support of a prescribed group
of Palestine Action that they voted to make a terrorist
group where support for it or showing any kind of
membership of it can lead to a custodial sentence.

Speaker 2 (26:13):
Kevin the French, the mess politically an absolute miss at
the moment, and there are calls from the kron because
he's sending out the PM is just resigned to go
and fix the whole thing that he couldn't fix in
the first place. But calls for him to just appoint
a new PM and then get out of the call
some early presidential elections.

Speaker 14 (26:31):
Yes, and around for a change. This isn't his opponents
saying this. These are now some of his own supporters
from within his own party, and that I think really
does signal just how isolated he is now. Indeed, Gabrielle Attal,
he leads Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance Party and was Prime Minister
for six months last year, went on National TV to

(26:53):
say quote, he no longer understands the decisions made by
the President of the Republic. I mean, if ever there
was a stabbing in the front hand the back, it
is that. So far, forty seven year old Emmanual Macron
has refused to resign, but frankly his options are really
narrowing at the moment, with political opponents on the radical left,
the hard Ride and now even his own allies indicating

(27:14):
he should go. A recent opinion poll suggested that well
over half the French population thinks he should resign. And this,
of course now, I think we've had three French prime
ministers in the last year, five in the last two years.
None of them are able to push through what Emmanual
Macron wants, which is a cut to the cost of

(27:36):
government spending and an increase in taxes. All of them
are being defeated by not just opponents, but also the
country at large that does not want to see their
standard of living.

Speaker 2 (27:46):
For Kevin Gray, are UK europe correspondent eleven minutes away
from six sous, so you'll appean As you know, she
had the ambislement conviction, can't run for five years, so
if they do have a presidential election, she won't be
able to run. But they're talking about she might be
putting an some sort of puppet in the meantime. Eleven
to six rain bread. Well that ENDSI report yesterday was
more bad news. Does it mean we get a fifty

(28:07):
off today or are we still going with twenty five points?
It's oc a day. Sharon's on the A and Z
Chief economist Sharon, good morning, Good morning. What do you
I know what you think they should do, but what
do you reckon they'll do?

Speaker 17 (28:21):
Yeah, we're plumping for a twenty five point cut, but
it is looking like a close run thing. It wouldn't
be difficult to just fire a larger cut. But at
the end of the day, we think, when it's so uncertain,
probably go with strategy. And the fact is the rate
to come down a long way. We're just getting into
the spring period for the housing market. The next six
weeks of data, I're going to tell you a lot

(28:42):
about what the rebound looks like, and we think a
twenty five point cut while signaling that you're absolutely ready
to do what's needed. You've got another leading in just
six weeks. That kind of leaves the most options open.
So that's really why we're plumping for twenty five rather
than having a strong view about the economics of it,
because the data has been a little bit rubbish. We

(29:03):
had obviously that weak data for the GENP in the
second quarter of the year. That can be very volatile.
It can also be revised hugely. But then we had
the quarterly surveyed Business Opinion yesterday, which is only one
indicator for how the economy has gone in the next
three months, but it wasn't a particularly good one.

Speaker 2 (29:20):
Sharon. Isn't this part of the problem that we keep saying, oh,
there's another meeting in six weeks, we'll just wait for
more data, wait for more data, and you missed the boat.

Speaker 17 (29:28):
That's always the risk. You can never eliminate the trade
off between exactly that risk of being too slow and
then the risk of overshooting or flip flopping and causing
unnecessary volatility. Those two risks are ever present. But the
fact is, you know, the ocr is a lot closer
to its bottom than its top. It's come all the

(29:48):
way down from five and a half, and in August
there was a that was forecasting at two and a
half would be the bottom. Maybe it'll be two and
a quarter, could even be two. But anyway, the point
is we're nearly there, so they're not driving. Instructors stay
should put your foot down just as you approach the turn.
So I guess our assumption is that the risk of
other flip flop and overshooting will be higher in the

(30:11):
minds of the committee than the risk of being too
slow at this point of the cycle. But really, it
wouldn't be difficult for them to justify share, sure, and
they were forecasting it to get to two and a
half anyway.

Speaker 2 (30:22):
They were now very quickly because we've got to go.
But I just wanted for people listening to this, we've
got a mortgage. If we go fifty instead of twenty
five today, what does that actually change for me? Or
of these numbers already been priced in.

Speaker 17 (30:36):
A lot is priced in, but the fifty is not
fully priced, so the market's also a bit on the fence,
so you'd expect to see the oven Well, the other
night rate will certainly drop more the one year rate.
That will depends very much on how the Reserve Bank's
see what the words they needs them, how the market
interprets that. Really, I think the reserve banks aim will
be is not caused too much of a splash, but

(30:56):
that'll be difficult when everyone's got next expectations.

Speaker 2 (31:00):
Sharon's Olner, A and Z appreciate your time, Thanks so
much for it. It's just gone eight minutes away from six.
If you look at owner occupiers, there were some numbers
out yesterday. The amount on floating is up from twenty
to twenty five percent. So we're all just hovering and
waiting for the Reserve Bank. Just over eighty percent of
owner occupy a mortgage money right now is either floating

(31:21):
or on a term shorter than two years. Isn't that interesting?

Speaker 1 (31:31):
Ryan Bridge on early edition with r v's Supercenter explore
r v's accessories and servicing all in one news talks.

Speaker 2 (31:39):
The'd be six to six on news talks, he'd be.
Mike said, Hey, Mike, greetings, Ryan, have you heard of
a swag gap? This is a TikTok trend that's going
around round at the moment. People couples post photos of
themselves standing next to each other and they've got a
swag gap, which is where one partner is more fashionable
than the other. It's nice and or maybe one of

(32:01):
them doesn't take care in their appearance.

Speaker 10 (32:03):
Do they know that when they do that?

Speaker 2 (32:04):
Yep, they know when they do it and they're happy
and proud to.

Speaker 10 (32:07):
Be So if you and I did it right now,
you'd be the.

Speaker 2 (32:09):
Sloppy one, right. But I was thinking about you and
Kate because Kate's very you know, credible, incredibly well dressed,
and I was thinking, you know you, are you trying
to close your gap? You know, have you got a
lot to make up for.

Speaker 10 (32:24):
I hadn't thought about it that way, right, But nice
of you to raise it what I did read yesterday.
Do you know we're spending less time on social media?
Is that the most uplifting thing you've heard all morning,
all of us globally speaking. Ah, very good point, lead
by young people. This is globally and following I can't
remember the name of it. So there's a couple of
news services out there that have been created, like TikTok,

(32:46):
and it's just it's like bunnies floating through the air.
It's just endless streams of lighthearted go nowhere. AI generated nonsense,
and it started out of rabbits AI generated hopping on
a trample. And this is the big tech companies trying
to test you out. So you look at it and
you see the rabbits hopping on the trampoline. You go,
oh my god, it's rabbits hopping on a trampoline. Are

(33:07):
they really? Are they AI generated? So there's two new service.
One I'd wonder it's not called sus it could be
called Sora sas.

Speaker 2 (33:14):
Does this meant to be better for us?

Speaker 10 (33:15):
No, what they've worked out is they're losing us in
terms of attention, and so they need to create something
that will grab us. And that's why TikTok so exactly
because the length of attention is so short. Now it's
two seconds, two seconds, two seconds, two seconds. So you
get your rabbits, you get your birds, you get your colors,
and this is the watch. Remember when this is a thing.

(33:36):
Remember where you heard this from? Two things for you
the one time I'll work on my swaed gap, bouncing
bunnies and sweat gaps. There you go, have a great day.
See you tomorrow.

Speaker 1 (33:55):
For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
to News Talks it be from five weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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