September 18, 2025 • 34 mins
On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Friday 19th of September 2025 GDP fell 0.9% in the last quarter, ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith shares his thoughts.
The Women's World Cup semi-final is this weekend; Sky Sport commentator Rikki Swannell tells Ryan about the atmosphere leading up to the game in the UK.
Ankle monitor escapes have increase from 64 in 2015 to more than 800 in the last year, Corrections Minister, Mark Mitchell tells Ryan why.
Plus, UK/Europe Correspondent Vincent McAviney has the latest on day two of Trump's state visit to the UK.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The issues, the interviews and the insight. Ryan Bridge on
Earli Initia with one roof love where you live, news talks,
there'd be.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Good morning, Welcome to Friday. The calls for Willis and
Luxurn now to resign. We'll look at those, The shocker
Q two number, the black Ferns, Georgia Miller, the mystery injury,
mystery no more. We're in the UK with Trump and
Starmer and Mark Mitchell joins the program on the ankle
bracelet's go and walk about when they shouldn't. The agenda
it is Friday, the nineteenth of September. Trump and Starmer
(00:33):
of how to joint press this after the state visit.
During the state visits, and Trump has some advice to
Starmer on the border control.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
I told the Prime Minis Teroe would stop it.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
And it doesn't matter if you call out the military.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
It doesn't matter what means you use.
Speaker 4 (00:47):
But it's going to destroy it destroys countries from within.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
Right.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
They've also signed a tech deal. This is AI quantum computing,
nuclear power and big text piling and Microsoft dropping twenty
two billion pounds into the UK, biggest spend outside of America.
Google five billion for II research in Vidia five hundred
million pounds for new data centers.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
Two one hundred and fifty billion pounds flowing both ways
across the Atlantic. That is a record expected to create
fifteen thousand jobs here in the United Kingdom, high skilled
jobs in cutting edge sectors where people can build careers
for the long term.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Back how I'm green and p Benjamin Doyle's gone, but
not before this.
Speaker 5 (01:31):
I did not come here on my terms. I was
summoned under difficult and unexpected circumstances, but I accepted that call. Today, however,
I leave by choice, not because I want to, but
because I have chosen to put my child first.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
Views and views you trust. To start your day, It's
early edition with Ryan Bridge roof love where you live?
Speaker 2 (02:02):
News talks. He'd be so Dan as one of the greats,
won't they right? Eight minutes after five news talks, he'd
b I see that in the Herald this morning, Matthew
Howson unsurprisingly is piling on and saying, yes, this is
time for Luxe and to go. I'll read you just
a little bit, he says, no other option now. The
disastrous GDP result reveals Christopher Luxe has failed and what
(02:24):
voters say the most important part of his job is
I think his resignation is now the only sure way
to avoid the catastrophe of a labor green government reliant
on to party. Marti, I think he's wrong. We'll talk
about that a little later in the program. Keen to
hear your thoughts. Nine two ninety two is the number
to text eight minutes after five. Now to the US,
this Jimmy Kimmel business is nuts. I reckon, Have you
(02:46):
caught up with this? The right is now as guilty
as the left on cancel culture. They all need to
check themselves. Here's what he actually said on his show.
Speaker 6 (02:55):
We had some new lows over the weekend with the
Maga gang desperately trying character to rise this kid who
murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them,
and everything they can to score political points from it.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Okay, did he incite violence? No? Did he call for
civil war?
Speaker 7 (03:11):
No?
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Did he threaten harm to anyone?
Speaker 8 (03:13):
No?
Speaker 2 (03:13):
Was it insensitive? Yes, because someone's just died. But that's
no reason to cancel Somebody canceling a talk show host
for talking is bonkers.
Speaker 6 (03:22):
This is the ultimate in cancel culture.
Speaker 9 (03:25):
We're losing our our first Amendment rates it's freedom of.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Speech can canceled.
Speaker 10 (03:33):
To me, that's bizarre.
Speaker 11 (03:35):
It's fine if you don't like these comedians, and it's
fine if you don't like.
Speaker 6 (03:38):
These shows, but what if you say something that someone
doesn't like.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
If anything, it might teach the far left the value
of free speech. You know, it's usually them that call
for the sackings, of course, but the far right, if
that's what they want to be called, should be equally
ashamed here. The more we cancel people, the less we listen,
the more divided we become. Ryan Bridge, just gone ten
after five nine two ninety two is the number to text.
(04:07):
We'd love to hear from you this morning. Now we
will get to Vincent mcavinie in the UK Europe. That's
around quarter to six this morning for the latest on
Trump and Starmer. Next though, we're going to Mark Mitchell
corrections Minister. Why Well, you know when you get a
little ankle bracelet instead of going to jail, you get
an ankle bracelet, and they say go home and be
a good boy or girl and stay there. Well they're not.
(04:27):
That's next.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
The news you need this morning and the in depth
analysis Early edition with Ryan Bridge and one Root Love
where you live news talks a'd be Brian.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
I think Nikola Willis needs to go because she's simply
out of her depth and you could see it yesterday
twelve after five. I'll give you the new SEAK employment
numbers shortly. First, if you've seen more people out with
the corrections ankle bracelets on lately, we know why. Ankle
monitor escapes have increased from sixty four and twenty fifteen
to more than eight hundred an in the last year.
(05:01):
The number of electronic monitoring is also up through the
roof though, from twelve hundred to six thousand, so there's
some context. Mark Mitch was the Corrections minister with us
this morning. Minister, good morning, Hey, good morning, Ryan. You're
still back in your finance minister. You know you're prime Minister.
What do you think of these calls for them to resign?
Speaker 8 (05:19):
No hand Per said, I'd bet them. I mean, you know,
this is my second round in government. Is an actual
government and like the first time around, we had we
inherited a roup port economy and some real issues in
the economy, and it took us a while. We turned
it around, and I don't know if you've meant it.
But it used to be called the rock star economy.
This time around we inherited a much bigger problem and
(05:39):
it's going to take a bit of time to turn around.
The Finance minister is doing the outstanding job.
Speaker 2 (05:44):
And so as the promise, would you call negative point
nine outstanding?
Speaker 8 (05:49):
Well, like I said to you, there's some there's definitely
a few head ons there. There's no doubt about that.
There was some good growth before the negative point nine.
And like I just sit to you, we last time
I was in government and was nationally here John t
in Bill English, we inherited really big problems from.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
The labor government.
Speaker 8 (06:07):
This is this political cycle we seen to happen. It
seems to happen as that labor comes in, they throw money,
were nothing gets delivered. They reach up huge debt for us.
I mean we're paying angrily about eight nine billion dollars ten.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
All right, so just stick to the plan, stick.
Speaker 8 (06:25):
Run the police force four times over on now.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
Stick to the plan, stick to the script. All right, minister,
Let's talk about this electronic monitoring. So in twenty fifteen
in percentage increase becomes important because there's been an increase
in those who were getting electronic monitoring. Right, So twenty
fifteen it was five percent, twenty twenty five is absconding
is now fourteen percent? So what how did that happen?
Speaker 8 (06:50):
Okay, well, you've got different numbers. I've I've got eleven percent,
but it's actually dropped significantly. They're doing equations are quite
quite SI, we're doing out standing job. Yes, to number
of people on electronic bail has increased, you know, it's
getting up towards thirty zerousand. The reason for that is
(07:10):
because there we're now wrapping consequences. Well, we want consequences
to actually that's the serious of the offense. And I've
also we've also had to deal with a massive increase
of people coming into the correction system that's so prioritizing
public safety.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
So I've got here from newstalks. There be as a
proportion of individuals on electronically monitored bail, the absconding rate
increased from five percent to fourteen percent. Is that wrong?
Speaker 8 (07:35):
Has gone from what twenty fifteen to eleven percent? Is
a thirty one July twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
Okay, so eleven percent or fourteen percent that's gone up?
Speaker 8 (07:45):
Yeah, So yeah, So when it's actually coming down. So
if you look at what they're doing, it's actually starting
to come down. But then it's quite that basically Ryan
that there has been a big increase in people on
electronic bail, more than we would have liked because what
was happening is we wore there's people getting electroc bail
that we thought should literally be in prison. So that's
why we've made changes changed to the what.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Does absconding mean you like it is that cutting the.
Speaker 8 (08:11):
Brace means basically, what it means is just not complying
with the orders that are in place. So Corrections have
got teams are working twenty four seven that are mooriforing
that they work very closely with the police. They informed
the police when someone breaches there electroc bail and the
police take exture on that. And that's why you start
to see our reduction as well as because you know
(08:32):
we are as the incoming government. We've been very clear
that there's going to be consequences that match, you know,
the serious.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Just how can you say it's coming down when the
rate's gone from five percent to that's eleven or fourteen,
that's going up, isn't it?
Speaker 8 (08:47):
Well, No, no, because if you look at if you
look at twenty nineteen, it was nineteen percent, twenty twenty
seventeen percent, twenty twenty one to sixteen percent, twenty twenty
two fifteen percent, twenty twenty three, twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Four, fourteen.
Speaker 8 (09:04):
To July twenty five eleven. Gotcha, So in the last
two years it's coming down.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
All right, minister, appreciate your time. Mark Mitchell is the corrections. Minister,
time is seventeen after five, lots of your text to
get to next and we'll talk black ferns and that
injury for Georgia Miller. News Talk said B.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
The first word on the News of the Day early
edition with Ryan Bridge and one roofe love where you live.
News Talk said B.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
It is five nineteen Ryan, for goodness sake, it's the
Reserve Bank that needs to be held to account. Remember
they are independent, says Die morning. Ryan. We have a
saying on the farm. You have one bad year, it
puts you back five. These people that criticize this is
the people calling for the resignation of Luxon and Willis
or Willis. The people that criticize have bugger all understanding
(09:51):
of the economy. Chairs Hamish Hamish. Good morning to you.
It's just gone twenty after five and Ryan Bred share
my views with you on that in just a second.
First women's rugby the any final time is tomorrow's six am.
The Black Ferns, unbeaten against Spain, Japan, Ireland and South
Africa now take on second ranked Canada. Big chat is
about that injury to Georgia Miller. Ricky s fanelle Is
(10:12):
Skysport commentated with us this morning. Ricky, good morning morning
to hear Ryan. How are you very good? Thank you
Georgia Miller. I see there was there was apparently a
post put up by a New Zealand rugby contractor that
said it was a hamstring injury that was taken down
or edited or something. Do we know what's going on here?
Speaker 8 (10:29):
Yeah?
Speaker 12 (10:30):
Look I think probably a mountain has been made out
of a Molehillowey, but with this one it probably not
helped by this sort of the wording around it. From
my understanding, it's not a major injury, but it's obviously
enough to keep her out of a Rugby World Cup
semi final, which as we know, is a really unfortunate
for her as a person and a player, but for
New Zealand because she's I mean, she's a once in
(10:51):
a generation player, Georgia Miller on them. The bright side though,
her replacement Kennedy took awaf who is not a bad
player to be fish. He's very, very handy. I think
was one of the best in Super rugby. And it
also means Leila Sati can come on to the bench
bench and she's had an outstanding tournament, so you know,
it gives the Black fans options. Yes, it is a
massive loss. Georgia is absolutely incredible. Fingers crossed if they
(11:14):
do go through that she would be available for a
potential final next week. As I understand, the injury isn't
a major and that's the case. But yeah, I guess
it's you know, for the Black Ferns and for Kenny
tok go off in particular, it's like, right, go out,
job done, and go out.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
And do that job. And Canada, how have they been
performing so far in the competition and what do we
need to look out for most.
Speaker 12 (11:38):
They've been outstanding. I think they've been the best team
in the competition. They played the best forty minutes of
any side in the first half against Australia last week.
They beat the Black Ferns last year, they drew with
them in May this year. They played very similar style
to New Zealand. They will they will want to play,
they want to run, they play really fast, but they
can be physical as well. So it is a superb matchup.
(12:00):
We've got Olympic silver medalists in their team, players who've
been on the.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Big stage that you know.
Speaker 12 (12:05):
To me, it is the best match of the tournament
on paper at least looks like the wead is going
to be nice and dry for both teams too, so
that'll be a factor giving them that opportunity to run
and to rarely play. So it should be an absolute
belter and perfect time at six am on a Saturday
morning in New Zealand as well. That's that's a bacon
and eggs bricky, if ever there was one frigant.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
We look forward to it. Ricky. Thank you, Ricky sonel
Skysport commentator. The game is tomorrow six o'clock Black Ferns,
be candidate. It's twenty two minutes after five.
Speaker 8 (12:35):
Right.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
Here's the good news for you this morning. Because we
have the shaker from Q two. We've had flat jobs
numbers from the Sikh New Zealand employment report from basically
October last year until May, and finally their August report
brings some good news and it is clear signs of
hiring activity picking up. So you know, here's a bright
(12:55):
spot for you. Volumes are up one percent month on
month and the prior two months they have been adjusted
up as well, so one percent increases respectively. Annual growth
now up four percent, first time that job abs have
grown year on year since November of twenty twenty two.
Applications are up two percent in July. That's a new
(13:18):
record high solid growth in the big industries Manufacturing, transport
logistics up three percent, trade in services up two percent.
And this is this is across the board. This is
broad based increases for most industries and crucially for the
larger regions including Auckland, which is now up two months consecutively.
(13:39):
Twenty three after five News Talks.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
MB the early edition full show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by Newstalks IV five.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Twenty five News Talks MB has Nikola Willis failed on
growth in her year of growth so far. Yes, we've
gone nowhere in six months. Quarter two basically wiped out
Quarter one. Should she resign? No? Why Trump's tarris She
didn't see them coming, sure, but nobody saw them coming.
Markets thought he was bluffing a negotiation tactic until he wasn't.
(14:12):
Businesses and mums and dads sat on the cash to
wait it out, which is a reasonable response to an
uncertain future. Should she borrow and spend more, she can't.
It'd be political sacrilege for a party elected to do
the opposite. Besides, she's already borrowing Robertson level cash, the
interest tabs nearing ten billion bucks, and rating agencies are
watching closely. The RBNZ printed money like it was going
(14:35):
out of fashion. Governments here and abroad overcook, the COVID
response with border controls, the world ground to a halt,
we artificially concocted, and the inflationary wildfire so hot that
the ambers burned close to the Central limits to this day.
As for those calls from Douglas and Cove for Willis
(14:55):
to her head on a stake. That's what they're asking for.
You've got to ask what exactly is it they want
and what impact would it have had had she gone
full Ruth Richardson in Budgets one and two, Getting the
books in line sooner. That growth number we saw yesterday,
the one that prompted the press release calling for her scalp,
(15:18):
would have been a hell of a lot worse than
zero point nine negative. So the waiting game continues, which
is cold comfort to many, but the medicine for such
a nasty illness was always going to be hard to swallow.
Bryan Bridge by twenty seven News Talks eb Over in
the UK. Nigel Farraj, I mean, this guy could seriously
(15:38):
be the next British Prime minister if you can keep
up the momentum and we'll see what happens with those
local elections are happening next year. But if you can
keep this momentum up and the immigration thing is still
a problem, then yeah, I mean he could be. It's
a potential. Now he along with people like Rudy Giuliani
doing this weird thing. I don't know if you know
(16:00):
about cameo. You might have been sent one of these
for your birthday. And a cameo gets celebrities and pays
them to send personalized sort of messages so you can say,
I want you to say this funny thing or that
funny thing. Farage does ninety five dollars. I'll say anything,
cameos and literally says anything.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
Happy birthday, and this is from the lads, lads, lads.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
And like there are ten to fifteen second videos. Now,
what he makes from this is apparently one hundred and
eighty thousand dollars in the last year, so ninety five
bucks a pop. He's just sitting in his office with
a microphone and a webcam and filming himself and then
sending them off one hundred and eighty thousand dollars. Now
he reckons, And I think this is actually quite interesting
(16:48):
because he's you know, it sort of looks a bit weird,
it could be a bit risky, but he reckons that
not only is he making a lot of money, he's
engaging with an audience that otherwise would have no idea
who he is or not find him particularly attractive. And
I've interviewed this as a Wall Street Journal article. They
interviewed a young guy who said, not sure I'd vote
(17:09):
for him, but it's hilarious how he'll just say anything,
and it's quite relatable content. So interesting, isn't it that
you could in a way campaign and get paid for it.
That's on top of his parliamentary salary. By the way,
Rudy Giuliani, you don't want to see this, but he
got a few hundred bucks for performing I'm a little teapot.
(17:30):
That's scream's desperation, doesn't it. Twenty nine after five news
talk zib to get to the GDP number before six
and the UK before that.
Speaker 1 (17:46):
Get ahead of the headlines on early edition with Ryan
Bridge and one roof love where you live used talks be.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
You're twenty four away from six news talk zbe bit
of a rock and a half place for Nicola Willis
really the text machines been lit up, Craig, says Ryan.
The fact that Willison Luckxon's government hasn't done something more
radical like reform the economy, which is what we expected
from them, as a sign that things will only get
worse to an extent, You're right. I mean people, some
on the right wanted them to come in and go
(18:24):
all Ruth Richardson, go all gung ho. And she did reform,
and she did cut deeply, much deeper than Willis as
I mean, she's still Willis borrowing as much as Richard,
as Grant Robertson. But if she had cut deeper that
number you're looking at yesterday would have been much worse.
(18:45):
That's what happens. Yes, Ruth Richardson got to five percent
growth eventually, but it took about three years to get there.
So you're looking at political cycles. You're looking at a party,
a national party, which is our centrist medal manager party,
isn't it. That's what they are. If we wanted what
you suggest, Craig, then we should have all voted act
(19:06):
you know what I mean. That's how you get you
to use their campaign's logan Real change time is anyway,
we'll talk about the GDP number before six and we'll
head to the UK for the Trump Starmer joint presser
in about ten minutes time. I'm thirteen away from six.
Now callen, Proctors and Dnedan for us this morning. Callen,
Good morning morning. Right time is ticking for prosecution over
(19:29):
the South Island's Sea lion killings.
Speaker 11 (19:33):
Yeah, the Sea Lion Trust here has this fifty thousand
dollars reward out for information about three deliberate killings and
the captains last year of sea lions.
Speaker 2 (19:42):
You may remember.
Speaker 11 (19:43):
The prosecution though has to come within a year of
the incident, and tomorrow is the deadline for that action,
so the trust is disappointed. It's fair to say that
there's been no progress on this despite the reward. They
concerned that whoever did it may think they got away
with it and could do it again. The co chair
is Sean McConkie. He's told us he hopes the community
(20:04):
support and the reward, though encourages people in future to
think twice. All right, how's your weather are the odd
early shower clears to find southwester turns northerlyeds and Eden's
high though only twelve today?
Speaker 2 (20:16):
All right? Chairs? Jamie Cunningham for christ Church Jamie, good morning,
Good morning Ryan. The Wildlife Photographer the Year exhibition has
returned to Canterbury Museum.
Speaker 7 (20:24):
Yeah, that's right. A fresh batch of one hundred animal
images from around the world are online from London's Natural
History Museum, showcasing photographic talent from fifty nine thousand entries
and one hundred and seventeen countries. It gives visitors the
chance to see a grizzly bear fishing in his sub
zero Canadian river, the nocturnal glow of a Chilean volcano,
(20:45):
in the intimate world of tiny insects, Museum Director Anthony
Riots's previous exhibitions have been enormously popular in twenty nineteen
and last year. He sees the captivating images and stories
of the world's wildlife are loved by contabrians and visitors,
so they're delighted to bring it back to christ Church.
Speaker 2 (21:02):
Right, how's your weather?
Speaker 7 (21:04):
A few showers, clearing to find in the morning, southwesterlies
and a high of twelve.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
All right, Max is in Wellington, Max, good morning, good morning.
Now I found this story quite hilarious, not funny, not funny. Yesterday,
this is about the public service still working from home?
Speaker 13 (21:20):
Yes, it's fitting that this is a Friday, because really interesting.
Latest data from the Public Service Commission Flexible working arrangements
working from home taking a cheeky Friday off. It's all
still rampant, it seems across the public sector, despite what
the government and previous Minister Nikola Willis might desire, a
majority in fact still working flexibly sixty five percent. That
(21:41):
might also be adjusted or compressed hours, flexible start finish time.
Indeed working from home. The proportion of people working at
home only down slightly on the Commission's last survey. Shockingly, shockingly,
the most common day to take off is Friday. Almost
a quarter work from home on Fridays. No wonder Wellington's
(22:01):
hospitality industries in the pan. And what was also alarming though,
is that the Public Service Commission says it's now going
to stop collecting this type of data, which was perhaps
the problem in the first place. It's rationale is that
working from home arrangements are our agreements between staff and managers,
and it no longer needs to track who's working at home.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
Went great, So even when we track them, we get nowhere.
And as soon as we stop tracking them, imagine where
it's going to go Thursday Friday. I mean, just take
the whole week.
Speaker 13 (22:30):
You know a lot of people listening to the show
and bed I think today.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
Yeah, that's your Wither. No, they're listening.
Speaker 13 (22:36):
They're listening to Arned in Wellington, Perhapsia the Odd Show.
Otherwise find Strong Southerly's ten today.
Speaker 2 (22:43):
All right, thanks mix, No, our listeners are up in
Adam already, Neva's and Auckland Neva good Morning, Happy Friday,
hopy Friday, and currently only and Wayne Brown are up
and Adam they're going to a stage event today for
a debate.
Speaker 14 (22:55):
Just get your popcorn. Oh my goodness, gracious me. So
today's Meet the Candidates of Now. This is hosted by
Gray Power. It will see those two give short speeches
and then take questions from the audience. So Leoni's criticized
Brown in the past, you know, for not showing up
to debates. So apparently a recent freshwater pole, this was
(23:16):
commissioned by Brown, shows him firmly in the driver's seat
with about sixty five percent of likely voters backing him.
That same pole showed Leoni head just six percent support,
although she says, you know, like her internal polling paints
a very different picture. Of course it does. So you know,
that'll be interesting today. I think quite a few media
people are going to head along to that. That's at
the north Shore. On the North Shore one pm, Shall
(23:38):
I say where netballed North Harbor?
Speaker 2 (23:40):
Great? Do you know? I had had one Brown on
the show last week or was it week before, and
he had his first candidates event. I said, oh, Wayne,
how did it go? And he goes it was insufferable.
Speaker 14 (23:52):
And I could just see his face. I could just
pat Oh right, it's sufferable. I mean it's quite comical.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
Really, he's the grinch, but everyone kind of likes it.
It's right right neither. How's our weather cloudy show.
Speaker 14 (24:05):
Is clearing to find this afternoon? Yay sixteen the high
first day school holidays.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Have a fantastic weekend. Good to see you. It is
twelve sorry eighteen minutes away from six or on news
Talk SeeDB we will talk GDP just before six o'clock.
Will get to Vincent mcavenie and the UK next News
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From six News talks too. Trump's offered some advice to
Kiir Starmer at a joint press conference. This is during
his state visit. The Vincent Mecavin Exact UK europe correspondent
joining me this morning, Vincent. They seem to be getting
along quite well, Yeah, very well.
Speaker 9 (25:47):
Donald Trump likes a winner, and he saw that historic
victory that Kair Starmer had in last year's election, securing
that massive mandate. Yes, he's having a bit of trouble
domestically at the moment, but Donald Trump and Kairs Starmer
c to have developed quite a strong bond, in part
because Kirs Starmer went out and met with Donald Trump
in sort of summer twenty twenty four ahead of his
(26:09):
election victory. So Donald Trump felt sort of flattered and
enamored by that. But over the past two days of
this visit, first the sort of royal day at Windsor
and then today at Checkers, the Prime Minister's country residence,
Trump's deep affection for the United Kingdom, his mother was
of course Scottish has been on full show and he
hasn't really put a foot out of line.
Speaker 2 (26:29):
And what about this tick deal that they're talking up?
Is this serious? Is it going to happen? Is it
guaranteed to heppen?
Speaker 9 (26:37):
Well, this tech deal is interesting, it's sort of tens
of billions of pounds. But what has been coming from
the US side is it would be much more if
the UK would do two things. Get rid of its
digital services tax and get rid of its new online regulation.
These are two things that Downing Street simply won't get
rid of because they say that the sort of the
(26:57):
online sales services tax, for instance, there has to be
some contribution to these massive online companies, the likes of Amazon,
that have taken away business from the high streets and
the high streets have to pay things like business rates
and rental rates for shops and all that kind of stuff.
And when it comes to the sort of dangers of
the internet, the online regulation built. You can't access, for instance,
(27:17):
pornography here in the UK anymore online without going through
an age certification process. And the Prime Minister was clear
that he didn't want children to be able to access
that kind of meat material and that there has to
be curves online of access to for instance, terrorist material
as well. So a downing Streets are very resolute that
the UK won't fold on this. Trump is trying to
put the same kind of pressure on the European Union
(27:39):
as well, because the likes of Mark Zuckerberg and all
those other tech bros are constantly putting pressure on him
to try and get other nations to get rid of
this before it becomes the international norm.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
All right, interesting stuff, Thans and making of any UK
europe correspondent time as twelve away from six Ryan, we
dealt with the politics of this. Now let's get to
the numbers. So GDP fell point nine percent in the
last quarter. That's double what the economists had fared and
lot three times what the Reserve Bank had fared and
joining me this morning, Mark Smith asb Senior Economists, Mark,
good morning.
Speaker 10 (28:10):
Good morning.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
Right, So yes, worse quarter two change decline. Does it
change your prediction for the quarter three number now that
we've gone so low?
Speaker 10 (28:21):
Yeah, probably a little bit. Yeah, the bigger the whole,
I suppose for the larger of the rebounds, so we
do have a little bit more of a bounce back,
but the thing is the whole is bigger.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Why.
Speaker 10 (28:35):
Well, essentially we saw quite a pretty strong start the year,
and really what we saw on Q two was very
much an unwining of those things and it happened a
lot more significant than what we thought. And really what
we're seeing now is that the economy does not really
have a lot there that can really push it up,
apart from really monetary policy. And it's really the key.
Speaker 2 (28:58):
Would a double cut last time, I mean, it wouldn't
have made a difference to this number because it was
backwards looking, right, But now everyone's thinking they'll do a
double cut next time.
Speaker 10 (29:09):
Possibly with the benefit of hindsight. I think with the
Reserve Bank, they're focuses as inflation, and I think we're
getting a lot more confident now that we will see
inflation pick up a bit in Q three, but we're
more confident now that's going to be lower further down
the tracks. And that's really why that there is a
bank with confidence can cut a bit more strongly.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
Does the fact that FED is cutting in the US
despite their inflation still being outside band, does that have
any effect on the inflation calculation here going forward?
Speaker 10 (29:41):
At the margin? You know, the extent that have fixed
long term interest rates here and the extent that fixed
the New Zealand dollars into the margin. But really it's
the same sort of dilemma that that we're facing as well.
I've gone back a while. I suppose the risk was
inflation will high for longer. I think the comfort now
(30:03):
for both central banks is that there's enough to be
a capacity in the economy and that will result in
inflation falling over time. And now it's also the focus
it's more on the labor market rather than inflation.
Speaker 2 (30:14):
So where do you where do you see? How low
do you see the OCA going two point two five?
Speaker 10 (30:20):
Yeah, by the end of the year, to give you
an idea of where things are. Typically, if you're like
your goldly locks rates about three percent, So we think
the Reserve Bank will need to put the foot on
the gas pedal to try and get the economy going. Previously,
when the flation was too high, the foot was on
the brake, and now the foot will need to go
on the gas pedal.
Speaker 2 (30:39):
Give us an economy, Give us an idea of what
that would mean for a mortgage interest rate? How low
could it go?
Speaker 10 (30:46):
A lot of it is already priced in. But you
know we will see for those floating rates will move down,
you know pipelike ware margin. Those fixed rates move not
so much because it's already priced in to some extent.
So certainly those variable rates will will come down.
Speaker 2 (31:00):
By This is the thing, right because last time the
Reserve being sure they didn't do a double hit, but
they essentially did a seventy you could aigue a seventy
five point cut because they signaled the rest to come right,
which has been priced in.
Speaker 10 (31:15):
Yeah, I think they're signals we want to see the
economy start to start to ready to move. I think
they worry is if it does not move enough, they've
all needed it more. So you know, again, what what
will happen to the official cash rate is really conditional
on the economic outlook and without there being enough tail
when suit the economy going, it's going to come more
(31:36):
on the OCI to do that.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Appreciate your time, Mark Mark Smith ASB Senior Economists. You're
on News Talk sad B.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
On your radio and online on Iheard Radio Early edition
with Ryan Bridge and one roof Love where you Live,
News Talks.
Speaker 2 (31:52):
EDB six or six on News Talk SEDB.
Speaker 8 (31:54):
SO.
Speaker 2 (31:54):
Then yesterday, Simon Brown puts out a press statement says
that they've offered one hundred and sixty million dollars extra
to the doctors five and a half thousand senior doctors
over a sixteen month term, and they've walked away from it.
So it strikes happening forty eight hours. Next week goes ahead,
thirteen thousand treatment appointments postponed, eighteen hundred elective procedures, thirty
six hundred specialists, seven thousand follow ups, and eight hundred
(32:17):
outpatients delayed. There you go. Good news Friday morning five
to six, Ryan Breede Morning, Mike Morning. Sorry, what's on
the show today?
Speaker 4 (32:27):
Well, we got John Key and we've got Nichola Willis.
You should read if you haven't read already. Thomas Coglin's yeah,
he gat one of them. Yeah, he's like he sums
up yesterday extremely well in the sense he's sort of
I mean, it's in the weeds. But Labour's inability to
focus on the day came in with questions about education,
whether they pulled them out of a basket or whatever
(32:49):
they do. But their day to kill the government was
yesterday and they failed miserably.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
They was sick.
Speaker 4 (32:54):
But Nikola Willis equally had no real comeback in the sense.
And here's the interesting thing for me in ald time
talk to her about it because she's on the program.
So when the parme miniter came on the program a
couple of weeks ago, you remember I got him to
criticize the Reserve Bank because he is the real issue,
and he all the op ed writers got all angsty
about that, said you can't do it. They're independent, blah
blah blah. But they've been just demonstrably let down by
(33:18):
the Reserve Bank. So if you just chart this, April,
May and June was the quarter we're dealing with. They
came out in July. By that time all was gone,
Hawksby was in and what did they do in July?
It was nothing that was die. So we've just watched
a quarter. We now know it's zero point nine contract
in a major way, and their view of it was
we don't need to do anything more.
Speaker 2 (33:39):
These calls for her to resign from it, that's the
usual crad. It's crap, but it's crap for a particular reason.
Speaker 4 (33:46):
I just I disagree with what you said earlier. But
the only thing I would say.
Speaker 2 (33:50):
Is that that if she had cut, she would have
been far worse. And therefore why put a pressure release
out on it yesterday?
Speaker 4 (33:58):
Because at the end of the day, the problem with Douglas,
or the thing about Douglas is Douglas is my financial
minister hero, that guy. We're in many respects, in the
same position. You're too young to remember, but we're in
the same position now that we were in when he
came in at eighty four and he blew the place up,
and we're probably requiring the same restaurant.
Speaker 2 (34:19):
Now, look forward to the show today. Mike has looked.
Next Happy Friday, everyone, I'm on Driday next week, Star.
I'll capture the following.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
to news Talks. It'd be from five am weekdays, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
The issues, the interviews and the insight. Ryan Bridge on
Earli Initia with one roof love where you live, news talks,
there'd be.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Good morning, Welcome to Friday. The calls for Willis and
Luxurn now to resign. We'll look at those, The shocker
Q two number, the black Ferns, Georgia Miller, the mystery injury,
mystery no more. We're in the UK with Trump and
Starmer and Mark Mitchell joins the program on the ankle
bracelet's go and walk about when they shouldn't. The agenda
it is Friday, the nineteenth of September. Trump and Starmer
(00:33):
of how to joint press this after the state visit.
During the state visits, and Trump has some advice to
Starmer on the border control.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
I told the Prime Minis Teroe would stop it.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
And it doesn't matter if you call out the military.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
It doesn't matter what means you use.
Speaker 4 (00:47):
But it's going to destroy it destroys countries from within.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
Right.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
They've also signed a tech deal. This is AI quantum computing,
nuclear power and big text piling and Microsoft dropping twenty
two billion pounds into the UK, biggest spend outside of America.
Google five billion for II research in Vidia five hundred
million pounds for new data centers.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
Two one hundred and fifty billion pounds flowing both ways
across the Atlantic. That is a record expected to create
fifteen thousand jobs here in the United Kingdom, high skilled
jobs in cutting edge sectors where people can build careers
for the long term.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Back how I'm green and p Benjamin Doyle's gone, but
not before this.
Speaker 5 (01:31):
I did not come here on my terms. I was
summoned under difficult and unexpected circumstances, but I accepted that call. Today, however,
I leave by choice, not because I want to, but
because I have chosen to put my child first.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
Views and views you trust. To start your day, It's
early edition with Ryan Bridge roof love where you live?
Speaker 2 (02:02):
News talks. He'd be so Dan as one of the greats,
won't they right? Eight minutes after five news talks, he'd
b I see that in the Herald this morning, Matthew
Howson unsurprisingly is piling on and saying, yes, this is
time for Luxe and to go. I'll read you just
a little bit, he says, no other option now. The
disastrous GDP result reveals Christopher Luxe has failed and what
(02:24):
voters say the most important part of his job is
I think his resignation is now the only sure way
to avoid the catastrophe of a labor green government reliant
on to party. Marti, I think he's wrong. We'll talk
about that a little later in the program. Keen to
hear your thoughts. Nine two ninety two is the number
to text eight minutes after five. Now to the US,
this Jimmy Kimmel business is nuts. I reckon, Have you
(02:46):
caught up with this? The right is now as guilty
as the left on cancel culture. They all need to
check themselves. Here's what he actually said on his show.
Speaker 6 (02:55):
We had some new lows over the weekend with the
Maga gang desperately trying character to rise this kid who
murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them,
and everything they can to score political points from it.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Okay, did he incite violence? No? Did he call for
civil war?
Speaker 7 (03:11):
No?
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Did he threaten harm to anyone?
Speaker 8 (03:13):
No?
Speaker 2 (03:13):
Was it insensitive? Yes, because someone's just died. But that's
no reason to cancel Somebody canceling a talk show host
for talking is bonkers.
Speaker 6 (03:22):
This is the ultimate in cancel culture.
Speaker 9 (03:25):
We're losing our our first Amendment rates it's freedom of.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Speech can canceled.
Speaker 10 (03:33):
To me, that's bizarre.
Speaker 11 (03:35):
It's fine if you don't like these comedians, and it's
fine if you don't like.
Speaker 6 (03:38):
These shows, but what if you say something that someone
doesn't like.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
If anything, it might teach the far left the value
of free speech. You know, it's usually them that call
for the sackings, of course, but the far right, if
that's what they want to be called, should be equally
ashamed here. The more we cancel people, the less we listen,
the more divided we become. Ryan Bridge, just gone ten
after five nine two ninety two is the number to text.
(04:07):
We'd love to hear from you this morning. Now we
will get to Vincent mcavinie in the UK Europe. That's
around quarter to six this morning for the latest on
Trump and Starmer. Next though, we're going to Mark Mitchell
corrections Minister. Why Well, you know when you get a
little ankle bracelet instead of going to jail, you get
an ankle bracelet, and they say go home and be
a good boy or girl and stay there. Well they're not.
(04:27):
That's next.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
The news you need this morning and the in depth
analysis Early edition with Ryan Bridge and one Root Love
where you live news talks a'd be Brian.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
I think Nikola Willis needs to go because she's simply
out of her depth and you could see it yesterday
twelve after five. I'll give you the new SEAK employment
numbers shortly. First, if you've seen more people out with
the corrections ankle bracelets on lately, we know why. Ankle
monitor escapes have increased from sixty four and twenty fifteen
to more than eight hundred an in the last year.
(05:01):
The number of electronic monitoring is also up through the
roof though, from twelve hundred to six thousand, so there's
some context. Mark Mitch was the Corrections minister with us
this morning. Minister, good morning, Hey, good morning, Ryan. You're
still back in your finance minister. You know you're prime Minister.
What do you think of these calls for them to resign?
Speaker 8 (05:19):
No hand Per said, I'd bet them. I mean, you know,
this is my second round in government. Is an actual
government and like the first time around, we had we
inherited a roup port economy and some real issues in
the economy, and it took us a while. We turned
it around, and I don't know if you've meant it.
But it used to be called the rock star economy.
This time around we inherited a much bigger problem and
(05:39):
it's going to take a bit of time to turn around.
The Finance minister is doing the outstanding job.
Speaker 2 (05:44):
And so as the promise, would you call negative point
nine outstanding?
Speaker 8 (05:49):
Well, like I said to you, there's some there's definitely
a few head ons there. There's no doubt about that.
There was some good growth before the negative point nine.
And like I just sit to you, we last time
I was in government and was nationally here John t
in Bill English, we inherited really big problems from.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
The labor government.
Speaker 8 (06:07):
This is this political cycle we seen to happen. It
seems to happen as that labor comes in, they throw money,
were nothing gets delivered. They reach up huge debt for us.
I mean we're paying angrily about eight nine billion dollars ten.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
All right, so just stick to the plan, stick.
Speaker 8 (06:25):
Run the police force four times over on now.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
Stick to the plan, stick to the script. All right, minister,
Let's talk about this electronic monitoring. So in twenty fifteen
in percentage increase becomes important because there's been an increase
in those who were getting electronic monitoring. Right, So twenty
fifteen it was five percent, twenty twenty five is absconding
is now fourteen percent? So what how did that happen?
Speaker 8 (06:50):
Okay, well, you've got different numbers. I've I've got eleven percent,
but it's actually dropped significantly. They're doing equations are quite
quite SI, we're doing out standing job. Yes, to number
of people on electronic bail has increased, you know, it's
getting up towards thirty zerousand. The reason for that is
(07:10):
because there we're now wrapping consequences. Well, we want consequences
to actually that's the serious of the offense. And I've
also we've also had to deal with a massive increase
of people coming into the correction system that's so prioritizing
public safety.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
So I've got here from newstalks. There be as a
proportion of individuals on electronically monitored bail, the absconding rate
increased from five percent to fourteen percent. Is that wrong?
Speaker 8 (07:35):
Has gone from what twenty fifteen to eleven percent? Is
a thirty one July twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
Okay, so eleven percent or fourteen percent that's gone up?
Speaker 8 (07:45):
Yeah, So yeah, So when it's actually coming down. So
if you look at what they're doing, it's actually starting
to come down. But then it's quite that basically Ryan
that there has been a big increase in people on
electronic bail, more than we would have liked because what
was happening is we wore there's people getting electroc bail
that we thought should literally be in prison. So that's
why we've made changes changed to the what.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Does absconding mean you like it is that cutting the.
Speaker 8 (08:11):
Brace means basically, what it means is just not complying
with the orders that are in place. So Corrections have
got teams are working twenty four seven that are mooriforing
that they work very closely with the police. They informed
the police when someone breaches there electroc bail and the
police take exture on that. And that's why you start
to see our reduction as well as because you know
(08:32):
we are as the incoming government. We've been very clear
that there's going to be consequences that match, you know,
the serious.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Just how can you say it's coming down when the
rate's gone from five percent to that's eleven or fourteen,
that's going up, isn't it?
Speaker 8 (08:47):
Well, No, no, because if you look at if you
look at twenty nineteen, it was nineteen percent, twenty twenty
seventeen percent, twenty twenty one to sixteen percent, twenty twenty
two fifteen percent, twenty twenty three, twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Four, fourteen.
Speaker 8 (09:04):
To July twenty five eleven. Gotcha, So in the last
two years it's coming down.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
All right, minister, appreciate your time. Mark Mitchell is the corrections. Minister,
time is seventeen after five, lots of your text to
get to next and we'll talk black ferns and that
injury for Georgia Miller. News Talk said B.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
The first word on the News of the Day early
edition with Ryan Bridge and one roofe love where you live.
News Talk said B.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
It is five nineteen Ryan, for goodness sake, it's the
Reserve Bank that needs to be held to account. Remember
they are independent, says Die morning. Ryan. We have a
saying on the farm. You have one bad year, it
puts you back five. These people that criticize this is
the people calling for the resignation of Luxon and Willis
or Willis. The people that criticize have bugger all understanding
(09:51):
of the economy. Chairs Hamish Hamish. Good morning to you.
It's just gone twenty after five and Ryan Bred share
my views with you on that in just a second.
First women's rugby the any final time is tomorrow's six am.
The Black Ferns, unbeaten against Spain, Japan, Ireland and South
Africa now take on second ranked Canada. Big chat is
about that injury to Georgia Miller. Ricky s fanelle Is
(10:12):
Skysport commentated with us this morning. Ricky, good morning morning
to hear Ryan. How are you very good? Thank you
Georgia Miller. I see there was there was apparently a
post put up by a New Zealand rugby contractor that
said it was a hamstring injury that was taken down
or edited or something. Do we know what's going on here?
Speaker 8 (10:29):
Yeah?
Speaker 12 (10:30):
Look I think probably a mountain has been made out
of a Molehillowey, but with this one it probably not
helped by this sort of the wording around it. From
my understanding, it's not a major injury, but it's obviously
enough to keep her out of a Rugby World Cup
semi final, which as we know, is a really unfortunate
for her as a person and a player, but for
New Zealand because she's I mean, she's a once in
(10:51):
a generation player, Georgia Miller on them. The bright side though,
her replacement Kennedy took awaf who is not a bad
player to be fish. He's very, very handy. I think
was one of the best in Super rugby. And it
also means Leila Sati can come on to the bench
bench and she's had an outstanding tournament, so you know,
it gives the Black fans options. Yes, it is a
massive loss. Georgia is absolutely incredible. Fingers crossed if they
(11:14):
do go through that she would be available for a
potential final next week. As I understand, the injury isn't
a major and that's the case. But yeah, I guess
it's you know, for the Black Ferns and for Kenny
tok go off in particular, it's like, right, go out,
job done, and go out.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
And do that job. And Canada, how have they been
performing so far in the competition and what do we
need to look out for most.
Speaker 12 (11:38):
They've been outstanding. I think they've been the best team
in the competition. They played the best forty minutes of
any side in the first half against Australia last week.
They beat the Black Ferns last year, they drew with
them in May this year. They played very similar style
to New Zealand. They will they will want to play,
they want to run, they play really fast, but they
can be physical as well. So it is a superb matchup.
(12:00):
We've got Olympic silver medalists in their team, players who've
been on the.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Big stage that you know.
Speaker 12 (12:05):
To me, it is the best match of the tournament
on paper at least looks like the wead is going
to be nice and dry for both teams too, so
that'll be a factor giving them that opportunity to run
and to rarely play. So it should be an absolute
belter and perfect time at six am on a Saturday
morning in New Zealand as well. That's that's a bacon
and eggs bricky, if ever there was one frigant.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
We look forward to it. Ricky. Thank you, Ricky sonel
Skysport commentator. The game is tomorrow six o'clock Black Ferns,
be candidate. It's twenty two minutes after five.
Speaker 8 (12:35):
Right.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
Here's the good news for you this morning. Because we
have the shaker from Q two. We've had flat jobs
numbers from the Sikh New Zealand employment report from basically
October last year until May, and finally their August report
brings some good news and it is clear signs of
hiring activity picking up. So you know, here's a bright
(12:55):
spot for you. Volumes are up one percent month on
month and the prior two months they have been adjusted
up as well, so one percent increases respectively. Annual growth
now up four percent, first time that job abs have
grown year on year since November of twenty twenty two.
Applications are up two percent in July. That's a new
(13:18):
record high solid growth in the big industries Manufacturing, transport
logistics up three percent, trade in services up two percent.
And this is this is across the board. This is
broad based increases for most industries and crucially for the
larger regions including Auckland, which is now up two months consecutively.
(13:39):
Twenty three after five News Talks.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
MB the early edition full show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by Newstalks IV five.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Twenty five News Talks MB has Nikola Willis failed on
growth in her year of growth so far. Yes, we've
gone nowhere in six months. Quarter two basically wiped out
Quarter one. Should she resign? No? Why Trump's tarris She
didn't see them coming, sure, but nobody saw them coming.
Markets thought he was bluffing a negotiation tactic until he wasn't.
(14:12):
Businesses and mums and dads sat on the cash to
wait it out, which is a reasonable response to an
uncertain future. Should she borrow and spend more, she can't.
It'd be political sacrilege for a party elected to do
the opposite. Besides, she's already borrowing Robertson level cash, the
interest tabs nearing ten billion bucks, and rating agencies are
watching closely. The RBNZ printed money like it was going
(14:35):
out of fashion. Governments here and abroad overcook, the COVID
response with border controls, the world ground to a halt,
we artificially concocted, and the inflationary wildfire so hot that
the ambers burned close to the Central limits to this day.
As for those calls from Douglas and Cove for Willis
(14:55):
to her head on a stake. That's what they're asking for.
You've got to ask what exactly is it they want
and what impact would it have had had she gone
full Ruth Richardson in Budgets one and two, Getting the
books in line sooner. That growth number we saw yesterday,
the one that prompted the press release calling for her scalp,
(15:18):
would have been a hell of a lot worse than
zero point nine negative. So the waiting game continues, which
is cold comfort to many, but the medicine for such
a nasty illness was always going to be hard to swallow.
Bryan Bridge by twenty seven News Talks eb Over in
the UK. Nigel Farraj, I mean, this guy could seriously
(15:38):
be the next British Prime minister if you can keep
up the momentum and we'll see what happens with those
local elections are happening next year. But if you can
keep this momentum up and the immigration thing is still
a problem, then yeah, I mean he could be. It's
a potential. Now he along with people like Rudy Giuliani
doing this weird thing. I don't know if you know
(16:00):
about cameo. You might have been sent one of these
for your birthday. And a cameo gets celebrities and pays
them to send personalized sort of messages so you can say,
I want you to say this funny thing or that
funny thing. Farage does ninety five dollars. I'll say anything,
cameos and literally says anything.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
Happy birthday, and this is from the lads, lads, lads.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
And like there are ten to fifteen second videos. Now,
what he makes from this is apparently one hundred and
eighty thousand dollars in the last year, so ninety five
bucks a pop. He's just sitting in his office with
a microphone and a webcam and filming himself and then
sending them off one hundred and eighty thousand dollars. Now
he reckons, And I think this is actually quite interesting
(16:48):
because he's you know, it sort of looks a bit weird,
it could be a bit risky, but he reckons that
not only is he making a lot of money, he's
engaging with an audience that otherwise would have no idea
who he is or not find him particularly attractive. And
I've interviewed this as a Wall Street Journal article. They
interviewed a young guy who said, not sure I'd vote
(17:09):
for him, but it's hilarious how he'll just say anything,
and it's quite relatable content. So interesting, isn't it that
you could in a way campaign and get paid for it.
That's on top of his parliamentary salary. By the way,
Rudy Giuliani, you don't want to see this, but he
got a few hundred bucks for performing I'm a little teapot.
(17:30):
That's scream's desperation, doesn't it. Twenty nine after five news
talk zib to get to the GDP number before six
and the UK before that.
Speaker 1 (17:46):
Get ahead of the headlines on early edition with Ryan
Bridge and one roof love where you live used talks be.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
You're twenty four away from six news talk zbe bit
of a rock and a half place for Nicola Willis
really the text machines been lit up, Craig, says Ryan.
The fact that Willison Luckxon's government hasn't done something more
radical like reform the economy, which is what we expected
from them, as a sign that things will only get
worse to an extent, You're right. I mean people, some
on the right wanted them to come in and go
(18:24):
all Ruth Richardson, go all gung ho. And she did reform,
and she did cut deeply, much deeper than Willis as
I mean, she's still Willis borrowing as much as Richard,
as Grant Robertson. But if she had cut deeper that
number you're looking at yesterday would have been much worse.
(18:45):
That's what happens. Yes, Ruth Richardson got to five percent
growth eventually, but it took about three years to get there.
So you're looking at political cycles. You're looking at a party,
a national party, which is our centrist medal manager party,
isn't it. That's what they are. If we wanted what
you suggest, Craig, then we should have all voted act
(19:06):
you know what I mean. That's how you get you
to use their campaign's logan Real change time is anyway,
we'll talk about the GDP number before six and we'll
head to the UK for the Trump Starmer joint presser
in about ten minutes time. I'm thirteen away from six.
Now callen, Proctors and Dnedan for us this morning. Callen,
Good morning morning. Right time is ticking for prosecution over
(19:29):
the South Island's Sea lion killings.
Speaker 11 (19:33):
Yeah, the Sea Lion Trust here has this fifty thousand
dollars reward out for information about three deliberate killings and
the captains last year of sea lions.
Speaker 2 (19:42):
You may remember.
Speaker 11 (19:43):
The prosecution though has to come within a year of
the incident, and tomorrow is the deadline for that action,
so the trust is disappointed. It's fair to say that
there's been no progress on this despite the reward. They
concerned that whoever did it may think they got away
with it and could do it again. The co chair
is Sean McConkie. He's told us he hopes the community
(20:04):
support and the reward, though encourages people in future to
think twice. All right, how's your weather are the odd
early shower clears to find southwester turns northerlyeds and Eden's
high though only twelve today?
Speaker 2 (20:16):
All right? Chairs? Jamie Cunningham for christ Church Jamie, good morning,
Good morning Ryan. The Wildlife Photographer the Year exhibition has
returned to Canterbury Museum.
Speaker 7 (20:24):
Yeah, that's right. A fresh batch of one hundred animal
images from around the world are online from London's Natural
History Museum, showcasing photographic talent from fifty nine thousand entries
and one hundred and seventeen countries. It gives visitors the
chance to see a grizzly bear fishing in his sub
zero Canadian river, the nocturnal glow of a Chilean volcano,
(20:45):
in the intimate world of tiny insects, Museum Director Anthony
Riots's previous exhibitions have been enormously popular in twenty nineteen
and last year. He sees the captivating images and stories
of the world's wildlife are loved by contabrians and visitors,
so they're delighted to bring it back to christ Church.
Speaker 2 (21:02):
Right, how's your weather?
Speaker 7 (21:04):
A few showers, clearing to find in the morning, southwesterlies
and a high of twelve.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
All right, Max is in Wellington, Max, good morning, good morning.
Now I found this story quite hilarious, not funny, not funny. Yesterday,
this is about the public service still working from home?
Speaker 13 (21:20):
Yes, it's fitting that this is a Friday, because really interesting.
Latest data from the Public Service Commission Flexible working arrangements
working from home taking a cheeky Friday off. It's all
still rampant, it seems across the public sector, despite what
the government and previous Minister Nikola Willis might desire, a
majority in fact still working flexibly sixty five percent. That
(21:41):
might also be adjusted or compressed hours, flexible start finish time.
Indeed working from home. The proportion of people working at
home only down slightly on the Commission's last survey. Shockingly, shockingly,
the most common day to take off is Friday. Almost
a quarter work from home on Fridays. No wonder Wellington's
(22:01):
hospitality industries in the pan. And what was also alarming though,
is that the Public Service Commission says it's now going
to stop collecting this type of data, which was perhaps
the problem in the first place. It's rationale is that
working from home arrangements are our agreements between staff and managers,
and it no longer needs to track who's working at home.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
Went great, So even when we track them, we get nowhere.
And as soon as we stop tracking them, imagine where
it's going to go Thursday Friday. I mean, just take
the whole week.
Speaker 13 (22:30):
You know a lot of people listening to the show
and bed I think today.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
Yeah, that's your Wither. No, they're listening.
Speaker 13 (22:36):
They're listening to Arned in Wellington, Perhapsia the Odd Show.
Otherwise find Strong Southerly's ten today.
Speaker 2 (22:43):
All right, thanks mix, No, our listeners are up in
Adam already, Neva's and Auckland Neva good Morning, Happy Friday,
hopy Friday, and currently only and Wayne Brown are up
and Adam they're going to a stage event today for
a debate.
Speaker 14 (22:55):
Just get your popcorn. Oh my goodness, gracious me. So
today's Meet the Candidates of Now. This is hosted by
Gray Power. It will see those two give short speeches
and then take questions from the audience. So Leoni's criticized
Brown in the past, you know, for not showing up
to debates. So apparently a recent freshwater pole, this was
(23:16):
commissioned by Brown, shows him firmly in the driver's seat
with about sixty five percent of likely voters backing him.
That same pole showed Leoni head just six percent support,
although she says, you know, like her internal polling paints
a very different picture. Of course it does. So you know,
that'll be interesting today. I think quite a few media
people are going to head along to that. That's at
the north Shore. On the North Shore one pm, Shall
(23:38):
I say where netballed North Harbor?
Speaker 2 (23:40):
Great? Do you know? I had had one Brown on
the show last week or was it week before, and
he had his first candidates event. I said, oh, Wayne,
how did it go? And he goes it was insufferable.
Speaker 14 (23:52):
And I could just see his face. I could just
pat Oh right, it's sufferable. I mean it's quite comical.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
Really, he's the grinch, but everyone kind of likes it.
It's right right neither. How's our weather cloudy show.
Speaker 14 (24:05):
Is clearing to find this afternoon? Yay sixteen the high
first day school holidays.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Have a fantastic weekend. Good to see you. It is
twelve sorry eighteen minutes away from six or on news
Talk SeeDB we will talk GDP just before six o'clock.
Will get to Vincent mcavenie and the UK next News
Talk SeeDB. If you run a small business, you know
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Speaker 1 (25:25):
To pay, International correspondence with ends and eye insurance, peace
of mind for New Zealand business sporting away.
Speaker 2 (25:32):
From six News talks too. Trump's offered some advice to
Kiir Starmer at a joint press conference. This is during
his state visit. The Vincent Mecavin Exact UK europe correspondent
joining me this morning, Vincent. They seem to be getting
along quite well, Yeah, very well.
Speaker 9 (25:47):
Donald Trump likes a winner, and he saw that historic
victory that Kair Starmer had in last year's election, securing
that massive mandate. Yes, he's having a bit of trouble
domestically at the moment, but Donald Trump and Kairs Starmer
c to have developed quite a strong bond, in part
because Kirs Starmer went out and met with Donald Trump
in sort of summer twenty twenty four ahead of his
(26:09):
election victory. So Donald Trump felt sort of flattered and
enamored by that. But over the past two days of
this visit, first the sort of royal day at Windsor
and then today at Checkers, the Prime Minister's country residence,
Trump's deep affection for the United Kingdom, his mother was
of course Scottish has been on full show and he
hasn't really put a foot out of line.
Speaker 2 (26:29):
And what about this tick deal that they're talking up?
Is this serious? Is it going to happen? Is it
guaranteed to heppen?
Speaker 9 (26:37):
Well, this tech deal is interesting, it's sort of tens
of billions of pounds. But what has been coming from
the US side is it would be much more if
the UK would do two things. Get rid of its
digital services tax and get rid of its new online regulation.
These are two things that Downing Street simply won't get
rid of because they say that the sort of the
(26:57):
online sales services tax, for instance, there has to be
some contribution to these massive online companies, the likes of Amazon,
that have taken away business from the high streets and
the high streets have to pay things like business rates
and rental rates for shops and all that kind of stuff.
And when it comes to the sort of dangers of
the internet, the online regulation built. You can't access, for instance,
(27:17):
pornography here in the UK anymore online without going through
an age certification process. And the Prime Minister was clear
that he didn't want children to be able to access
that kind of meat material and that there has to
be curves online of access to for instance, terrorist material
as well. So a downing Streets are very resolute that
the UK won't fold on this. Trump is trying to
put the same kind of pressure on the European Union
(27:39):
as well, because the likes of Mark Zuckerberg and all
those other tech bros are constantly putting pressure on him
to try and get other nations to get rid of
this before it becomes the international norm.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
All right, interesting stuff, Thans and making of any UK
europe correspondent time as twelve away from six Ryan, we
dealt with the politics of this. Now let's get to
the numbers. So GDP fell point nine percent in the
last quarter. That's double what the economists had fared and
lot three times what the Reserve Bank had fared and
joining me this morning, Mark Smith asb Senior Economists, Mark,
good morning.
Speaker 10 (28:10):
Good morning.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
Right, So yes, worse quarter two change decline. Does it
change your prediction for the quarter three number now that
we've gone so low?
Speaker 10 (28:21):
Yeah, probably a little bit. Yeah, the bigger the whole,
I suppose for the larger of the rebounds, so we
do have a little bit more of a bounce back,
but the thing is the whole is bigger.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Why.
Speaker 10 (28:35):
Well, essentially we saw quite a pretty strong start the year,
and really what we saw on Q two was very
much an unwining of those things and it happened a
lot more significant than what we thought. And really what
we're seeing now is that the economy does not really
have a lot there that can really push it up,
apart from really monetary policy. And it's really the key.
Speaker 2 (28:58):
Would a double cut last time, I mean, it wouldn't
have made a difference to this number because it was
backwards looking, right, But now everyone's thinking they'll do a
double cut next time.
Speaker 10 (29:09):
Possibly with the benefit of hindsight. I think with the
Reserve Bank, they're focuses as inflation, and I think we're
getting a lot more confident now that we will see
inflation pick up a bit in Q three, but we're
more confident now that's going to be lower further down
the tracks. And that's really why that there is a
bank with confidence can cut a bit more strongly.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
Does the fact that FED is cutting in the US
despite their inflation still being outside band, does that have
any effect on the inflation calculation here going forward?
Speaker 10 (29:41):
At the margin? You know, the extent that have fixed
long term interest rates here and the extent that fixed
the New Zealand dollars into the margin. But really it's
the same sort of dilemma that that we're facing as well.
I've gone back a while. I suppose the risk was
inflation will high for longer. I think the comfort now
(30:03):
for both central banks is that there's enough to be
a capacity in the economy and that will result in
inflation falling over time. And now it's also the focus
it's more on the labor market rather than inflation.
Speaker 2 (30:14):
So where do you where do you see? How low
do you see the OCA going two point two five?
Speaker 10 (30:20):
Yeah, by the end of the year, to give you
an idea of where things are. Typically, if you're like
your goldly locks rates about three percent, So we think
the Reserve Bank will need to put the foot on
the gas pedal to try and get the economy going. Previously,
when the flation was too high, the foot was on
the brake, and now the foot will need to go
on the gas pedal.
Speaker 2 (30:39):
Give us an economy, Give us an idea of what
that would mean for a mortgage interest rate? How low
could it go?
Speaker 10 (30:46):
A lot of it is already priced in. But you
know we will see for those floating rates will move down,
you know pipelike ware margin. Those fixed rates move not
so much because it's already priced in to some extent.
So certainly those variable rates will will come down.
Speaker 2 (31:00):
By This is the thing, right because last time the
Reserve being sure they didn't do a double hit, but
they essentially did a seventy you could aigue a seventy
five point cut because they signaled the rest to come right,
which has been priced in.
Speaker 10 (31:15):
Yeah, I think they're signals we want to see the
economy start to start to ready to move. I think
they worry is if it does not move enough, they've
all needed it more. So you know, again, what what
will happen to the official cash rate is really conditional
on the economic outlook and without there being enough tail
when suit the economy going, it's going to come more
(31:36):
on the OCI to do that.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Appreciate your time, Mark Mark Smith ASB Senior Economists. You're
on News Talk sad B.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
On your radio and online on Iheard Radio Early edition
with Ryan Bridge and one roof Love where you Live,
News Talks.
Speaker 2 (31:52):
EDB six or six on News Talk SEDB.
Speaker 8 (31:54):
SO.
Speaker 2 (31:54):
Then yesterday, Simon Brown puts out a press statement says
that they've offered one hundred and sixty million dollars extra
to the doctors five and a half thousand senior doctors
over a sixteen month term, and they've walked away from it.
So it strikes happening forty eight hours. Next week goes ahead,
thirteen thousand treatment appointments postponed, eighteen hundred elective procedures, thirty
six hundred specialists, seven thousand follow ups, and eight hundred
(32:17):
outpatients delayed. There you go. Good news Friday morning five
to six, Ryan Breede Morning, Mike Morning. Sorry, what's on
the show today?
Speaker 4 (32:27):
Well, we got John Key and we've got Nichola Willis.
You should read if you haven't read already. Thomas Coglin's yeah,
he gat one of them. Yeah, he's like he sums
up yesterday extremely well in the sense he's sort of
I mean, it's in the weeds. But Labour's inability to
focus on the day came in with questions about education,
whether they pulled them out of a basket or whatever
(32:49):
they do. But their day to kill the government was
yesterday and they failed miserably.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
They was sick.
Speaker 4 (32:54):
But Nikola Willis equally had no real comeback in the sense.
And here's the interesting thing for me in ald time
talk to her about it because she's on the program.
So when the parme miniter came on the program a
couple of weeks ago, you remember I got him to
criticize the Reserve Bank because he is the real issue,
and he all the op ed writers got all angsty
about that, said you can't do it. They're independent, blah
blah blah. But they've been just demonstrably let down by
(33:18):
the Reserve Bank. So if you just chart this, April,
May and June was the quarter we're dealing with. They
came out in July. By that time all was gone,
Hawksby was in and what did they do in July?
It was nothing that was die. So we've just watched
a quarter. We now know it's zero point nine contract
in a major way, and their view of it was
we don't need to do anything more.
Speaker 2 (33:39):
These calls for her to resign from it, that's the
usual crad. It's crap, but it's crap for a particular reason.
Speaker 4 (33:46):
I just I disagree with what you said earlier. But
the only thing I would say.
Speaker 2 (33:50):
Is that that if she had cut, she would have
been far worse. And therefore why put a pressure release
out on it yesterday?
Speaker 4 (33:58):
Because at the end of the day, the problem with Douglas,
or the thing about Douglas is Douglas is my financial
minister hero, that guy. We're in many respects, in the
same position. You're too young to remember, but we're in
the same position now that we were in when he
came in at eighty four and he blew the place up,
and we're probably requiring the same restaurant.
Speaker 2 (34:19):
Now, look forward to the show today. Mike has looked.
Next Happy Friday, everyone, I'm on Driday next week, Star.
I'll capture the following.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
to news Talks. It'd be from five am weekdays, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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