May 28, 2025 • 34 mins
On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Thursday the 29th of May 2025,
The Reserve Bank cut the OCR by 25 basis points, ASB bank Chief Economist Nick Tuffley shares his thoughts.
International student numbers are down in Secondary schools and for vocational training, Minister for vocational education Penny Simmonds tells Ryan Bridge what the Government's doing to help.
The New Zealand Initiative has come up with a plan to bring competition to the grocery sector, Sue Chetwin from the Grocery Action Group shares her thoughts.
Plus US Correspondent Mitch McCann has the latest on the US government halting international student Visa appointments.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The issues these and the inside Ryan Bridge on early
edition with one roof make your Property search simple, used
Talks B.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Good morning, It has just gone six after five News
Talks D B. The OCI. Yes, we bought the car,
but how certain are we about further cups after this one?
We'll speak to an economist just before six o'clock. Elon
Musk doesn't really like Trump's big beautiful bill. We'll tell
you why. Over in Berlin, Merch is getting quite involved
with the Ukraine war. He's done a deal with Zelensky
(00:34):
on missiles. We've got details. Mitch mccannon's stateside International students
here still down forty percent on pre COVID. The ministers
on to explain why, and a new supermarket fix that
doesn't involve breaking up businesses.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
The agenda.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
In Berlin, Frederick Murgs and Vilensky did that deal helping
Kiev produce long range missiles to defend itself from Russian attack.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
We will further increase pressure on Russia in order to
weaken the war machinery in Moscow, but we will also
do it in order to open up paths towards negotiation.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Ober in France, this former French surgeon who sexually abused patients.
He gets twenty years. The trial spark outraged it was
revealed during proceedings he was allowed to continue to treat
children despite a conviction in two thousand and five for
downloading pedophile images. I saw no sincerity from him. I
just hope he cannot hurt people anymore, but I don't
(01:37):
expect him to change. On government and our society are
not outraged.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
The rape of children seems too complicated to acknowledge.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Spros the Knights.
Speaker 4 (01:45):
This exists.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Trump's big beautiful bill is too big for Elon Musk.
Speaker 5 (01:50):
Big beautiful bill, you know, I was like disappointed to
see the massive spending bill. Frankly, Press the bunch steps
that not. This decrease it and it reminds the work
that the Doge team is doing. I think a book
can be can be big or it can be beautiful.
(02:10):
I don't know if it could be both.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
He also remember he was going to shave billions off
the government budget with Doge and ended up only being
a couple one hundred million. Anyway, he's not happy with that.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
On your radio and online on iHeartRadio Early edition with
Ryan Bridge and One Roof make your property search simple.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
If you talk said, be nine two the number to text.
We'd love to hear from you this morning. So Luxon
comes out yesterday, big smile on his face. Nicolas there
with a nice dress on. We're not meant to talk
about her dress, but who really cares, and so he should.
He's in government. Interest rates have come down two hundred
and twenty five basis points since the peak last year.
We're now sitting on three point two five, so close
(02:54):
to neutral. In fact, we're so close to neutral now
the Bank says they're not really using that term anymore.
It's almost obsolete. They don't like it. They're going to
quote feel their way. At this point, they're promising a
further cut. In fact, their low point is now two
point nine percent rather than three point one, which it
was under or So this is all great news if
(03:14):
you're in a government. It is way more significant for us,
way more significant for your average punter than any budget
would be. They reckon that since the peak. If you've
got a five hundred thousand dollars mortgage, your fortnightly repayments
will be cut by three hundred dollars, so you'll have
an extra three hundred dollars a fortnight in your back pocket.
(03:35):
Didn't get that from the budget, did you? This is
the power of monetary policy. Close to half of all
mortgage holders are due to fix their loans from June,
that is half a million mortgages. Now there is an
economic argument going on here. Can Luxon claim victory for this?
Does he go into a victory parade, which is basically
(03:56):
what he did yesterday with Nikola. Here's what Hawksby's the governor.
Hawksby had to say when asked about the impact of
the budget on their decision yesterday. Have a listen.
Speaker 6 (04:07):
We were delighted that the government announced its budget before
we met as a Monetary Policy Committee, and that meant
that we had all that information in front of us
and we could take that as given. It had a
very little role to play in terms of the decision
we made today relative to previously. There were unders and
(04:29):
overs in terms of the impact of the budget. The
investment boost scheme providing some support to business investment and
that's factored into our projections. But on the other side,
some active decisions around reducing government expenditure. They effectively met out.
And it remains the same story that government spending as
(04:50):
a portion of potential output is looking to be falling
through our projection period.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
So basically that was Christian hawksby Toss neutral and therefore
not really relevant to the decision making. But that is
not the same thing as saying it had no impact
at all. If the government was burrowing to the helt
and spending like a drunken sailor, it would have affected things.
So by not doing that and focusing on the quality
(05:18):
of the spending it has, in a perverse kind of way,
had an impact Bread even though Hawksbeak says it didn't.
I mean, I guess that the moral of the stories
it could have been a lot worse, and then it
would have changed the trajectory potentially. Right eleven minutes after
five year on News Talks, there b a lot to
talk about this morning. There's a new report from the
New Zealand Initiative which skirts around the issue of breaking
(05:43):
up supermarkets in order to fix the duopoly. And we're
talking also to Penny Simmons about these international students still
forty percent down on pre COVID. We'll ask why.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Bryan Bridge on affill the edition, where's one roof make
your property search simple?
Speaker 2 (06:00):
News Dog zibby news Dog Zibi. It's just gone fourteen
after five our foreign student numbers are down. Ministry of
Education shows there was a forty percent decrease from the
peak in twenty sixteen. Universities rebounding post COVID, but secondary
schools and vocational training are lagging. Penny Simmons is the
Vocational education minister with me this morning. Minister, Good morning,
(06:22):
good morning Ryan. Why are we down forty percent? Still?
Speaker 7 (06:26):
Tapooking? Tapooking has centralized everything they did, all the marketing centrally.
Nobody knew what tapooking was overseas. They required everything to
be the same, so whether you were offering courses an
in Vcago or Auckland, you had to have the same price.
So Auckland numbers have come back a little quicker, but
(06:48):
certainly the regions they just haven't come back at all.
You couldn't do anything innovative or different. You couldn't do
things like having free English for spouse so that they
integrate into community. So it just killed off any innovation,
anything that was done in the regions to particularly attract
(07:08):
international students.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
So you're saying the first thing you said was that
they were advertising as tapooking and no one knew what
it was. Do you mean that they didn't go out
to the international market and say this is New Zealand.
Speaker 7 (07:21):
Well they said New Zealand, but they didn't say what
the institutions were. So you couldn't go out and market
yourself as Nelson Polytechnic, an MIT or Otago Polytechnique. You
had to be Tapooking and the new branch of.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Is that important because international students would be going and
researching those places and saying, oh, this looks good and
I can trust that one.
Speaker 7 (07:48):
Yes. And also they knew the name polytechnic. They know
what a polytechnic is, they know what an institute of
technology is. They certainly didn't know what a two people
what a shambos. Same thing happened in Queensland when they
are centralized all their tapes Exactly the same thing happened.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
So why what are we a year and a half
in What what are we currently marketing ourselves as.
Speaker 7 (08:13):
They are starting to be able to market themselves individually,
but it's only just started.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Well, what's taken you so long? I mean, fair enough,
they bug it it up, But what's taking you so long?
Speaker 7 (08:25):
Well, we've got the legislation going through the House now
to disestablish tape pooking here. But while take pooking is there,
I can't instruct them to do anything. Why not because
they had their own entity. I don't have the well.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Rip them up, push them as.
Speaker 7 (08:44):
That's exactly what we're doing now, how can.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
It take I think, look, if this is this is
a serious issue on twenty seven, this is worth billions
of dollars. We're forty percent down on pre COVID. You've
got an institution that's been created by a previous government
you've got no control over, and it takes you a
year and a half to even dismantle it.
Speaker 7 (09:04):
Yes, it does because the legislation takes a long time
to get risen. It's a really complex bit of legislation.
But also because the finances are such a mess, and
so we're having to go through and unpick all the
financial difficulties. There are some that went in in debt,
some went in with reserves, all that got amalgamated. So yeah,
(09:26):
it's been a nightmare that we're unpicking it. It will
be undone by one January next year.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
One January we will have be free of tapooking. It
and then when and from then universe polytechs can start
advertising themselves as who they are.
Speaker 7 (09:43):
They are starting to now they've got the message to
Pooking has got the message. They're starting to, but they've
only just been allowed to charge their own fees and
that's been a big barrier.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Any what is your target date for getting this number
back to pre COVID.
Speaker 7 (10:01):
I think it'll take two years from when we get disestablished.
King had disestablished, so I think.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
It will be come out of years. Eight January twenty
twenty eight. We'll have a conversation.
Speaker 7 (10:13):
Penny, please do I look forward to it.
Speaker 2 (10:16):
Good to have you on the show, Penny Simmons. Who's
the Minister for Vocational and Education? It is eighteen after
five year. On news talks, there'd b we'll get to
Mitch McCanns Stateside shortly and supermarkets the new plan that
doesn't involve dismantling the duopoly. That's next, The news you
need this.
Speaker 1 (10:34):
Morning and the in depth analysis early edition with Ryan
Bridge and One Room Make your Property search Simple.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
News talks they'd be I'll get you some details shortly
on the Berlin meeting between Zelensky and Mertz it's quite
interesting what they're doing over in America. Marco Rubio's put
out a tweet. He's announcing new visa restrictions for foreigners
who are quote complicit in censoring Americans. So if you
work for a government around the world, look out, it
(11:03):
could be coming your way. Foreign officials, it says, and
persons who are complicit and censoring Americans. They Americans have
been fined, harassed, and even charged by foreign authorities for
exercising their free speech rights, and foreigners who undermine those
rights should not enjoy the privileges of traveling to our country,
says Marco Rubio this morning. He have previously targeted the
(11:28):
European Digital Services Act, which we've spoken about before. It's
aimed at preventing disinformation. Remember we were going to have
one of these. And so the question is should you
be able to spread lies on the Internet? And I
think yes you should because you can run down the
street and lie a liar to your pants are on fire,
and that's totally legal. So why shouldn't you be able
to do it online? We just need to be smarter
about who and what we trust. Twenty one after five,
(11:53):
Andy Gillan's Initiative have come up with a plan to
bring competition to the grocery sector. They've drafted up a
bill for the government. Here you go on a platter.
They say that consense and rezoning processes need to be
streamlined with a pathway opened up for a third retailer.
So Chetwin's the Grocery Action Group with us this morning.
So good morning, good morning. What do you make of this.
There's no need to bash the heads of these stuopolies.
(12:15):
You just actually get government out of the way.
Speaker 8 (12:19):
Look, I think that this would be nice to have,
but you have to recognize that this report would have
been put out with the financial support of Willworth food
Stuff and Fonterra, who are really big supporters probably of
the status quo. So what our problem in New Zealand
(12:43):
is is not that we don't have enough land. We
have enough supermarkets, but what we have is too few operators.
We have too few competitors. And what this government has
seen is that we can't get competitor because we're paying
the highest price to some of the highest prices in
(13:04):
the world because we have a lack of competition. What
we need is more competitors and to get more competitors.
Speaker 7 (13:12):
They probably have to look at.
Speaker 8 (13:14):
Forcing the existing the incumbents to actually divest some of
the stores that they have, because we have plenty of
super markets, we just don't have enough operators.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
You said there's enough land. Whenever anyone tries to build anything,
there is opposition. There's I mean there's a labor MP
in christ Church is trying to stop a supermarket being built.
I interviewed the former managing director of Costco. He said
the biggest problem was zoning for land and bringing his
supermarket here. So there is a problem, there isn't there.
Speaker 8 (13:47):
I think, as I said, I think this would be
a nice to have, But all the land that would
have been useful for supermarkets has in the past being
bought by will We've food staffs, food stuffs to stop
others competing, and the Commerce Commission has stopped that behavior.
Speaker 7 (14:09):
They've yeah, so so that man.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Is now you think though, so you think this is
this report has actually just been bought by the big dogs.
Speaker 8 (14:20):
Look, I think I think it has. It's to slow
down any activity because Nikola Willis has definitely said that
she's looking at this and divestment is on the table.
They want to stop that happening, because that would encourage
real competition. And even within this report they talk about,
(14:43):
you know, oh, freeing up land for twelve new players,
well twelve new are sorry, twelve twelve new stores. But
that's not going to cut the mustard. I mean, thirty
new stores wouldn't cut the mustard. Now we're talking about
allowing competition to come into this country at scale fast,
so that actually means divestment.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
So appreciate your time responding, stead chetwin Grosser Reaction Group.
It is twenty five after five the early.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
Edition full the Show podcast on iHeartRadio, how It By News.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
Talks AB News Talks b twenty seven after five another
Reserve Bank rate cut. It was largely as expected, twenty
five basis points. The rest of the press conference and
much of the monetary policy statement that followed was focused
on the unpredictable global environment. We can't say this because
we don't know what Trump will do. We can't be
(15:34):
certain about that because Trump and the trade war, etc.
But at what point does unpredictability become predictable and therefore
not the great threat that we make it out to be. Yes,
Trump went nuts on Liberation Day. The sky fallon. He
then calls a ceasefire in May. The markets have recouped
all of their losses since then. The end of seas
(15:55):
are patchy, but largely back to where they were. Trade
talks are ongoing. The IMF yesterday upgraded Britain's growth. US
consumer confidence actually increased last month for the first time
in five China's industrial growth for April was positive yesterday.
Our agricultural experts are doing the business abroad. Trump rants
(16:17):
and raves on Twitter. He unannounces stuff as quickly as
he announces stuff. He's impulsive, he's emotionally reactive, vindictive. He's
a weather vein, the political equivalent of Katy Perry. Because
he's hot, then he's cold. He's in, then he's out.
He's up, then he's down. He's wrong when it's right,
(16:40):
he's black when it's white. You get where I'm going
with this. The point is we know this about him.
We know he's unpredictable, and that makes his unpredictability predictable.
I reckon we aren't taking his threats as seriously as
we were two months ago. Not the US consumer, not
Chinese industry, not US and you know who else should
(17:03):
stop paying him so much, damn attention the Reserve Bank.
Ryan Bridge shows B twenty nine.
Speaker 5 (17:10):
After Folk.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
My Flint be I See if you live There. Lots
of texts about the OCR and also Penny Simmons the
interview we just had with the vacation minister. We'll get
to that after the break. Our reporters and Mitch mccannon
State Side US Talk set B, the.
Speaker 1 (17:48):
First Word on the News of the Day Early edition
with Ryan Bridge, and one roof Make Your Property Search
Symbol News Talk PY.
Speaker 7 (18:06):
Good Morning, twenty.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
Four away from six News Talk SAVV. Welcome to your
Thursday morning. Mitch McCann is in the state for US.
Donald Trump's just done a press conference, spoken about Russia
and a bunch of other stuff. We'll talk to him.
Nick Tuffley from ASB on the OCR announcement yesterday and
just how low the rates might go? Is now the
time to lock him that sort of stuff. Lots of
text on Penny Simmons, the minister on the program a
(18:28):
short time ago. She's the vocational education Minister. We're still
forty percent down on our international student numbers. The universities
have bounced back somewhat, but it's your secondary school and
your vocational education. We're still way behind on pre COVID.
And she said it was to poo Kinger, she said
(18:49):
it was quite incredible to listen to. Actually, she said
to poo Kinger comes along, this is the is and
points out Ryan, remember who set to pooking her up?
It was Hapkins sets that up, this big overarching agency.
They go out to market to international students with the
name to Pookinger, and you can't market your individual polytech
to these students. So they're going, what the hell is
(19:11):
to Pookinger? And where do I google that? And where
is its credentials? And how do I That makes no
sense to me. If you've got a brand, if you're
a polytech and into cargo, you've got a good brand,
You've been doing it for a long time. Taking away
your right to market yourself makes no sense. And anyway,
the numbers reflect this, Ryan, was that Penny on a
few seconds ago. She speaks a lot of sense, as
(19:32):
does the woman about the supermarket. Sue Chapman was on
about supermarkets this morning. Two smart women on the show. Yeah,
and it happens, It happens often. We're about to hear
from Neva she's a smart woman on the show.
Speaker 8 (19:46):
Right.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
It is twenty two minutes away from six Crayon Bridge.
Get to our reporters around the country, Color Procter and
Tonedin Good Morning. Want to write a big celebration for
Otago Med School.
Speaker 7 (19:58):
Yes, it's so.
Speaker 9 (19:59):
One hundred and fifty celebrations from today and the commemorations
are well underway. They are on through until Sunday to
celebrate alumni, past and presence staff and also current students.
The organizers say they'll be honoring a century and a
half of clinical training, research and innovation across the schools
Duned and christ Church and Wellington campuses. The University Vice
(20:22):
Chancelly here Grunt Robertson says this is a wonderful opportunity
to acknowledge the ways in which the school continues to
be influential.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
There's a full weekend program.
Speaker 9 (20:30):
There's tours of the school, lighthearted medical review show and
also a big Garla dinner.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
Sounds lovely, expensive but lovely. How's the weather, Color Well,
not good for the start of the celebrations. Occasional rain today, southerly,
strong at times a high of just eleven. Claire Sherwood
and christ Church, High Claire. Good morning now, big boost
for Canterbury schools from the government indeed, and a.
Speaker 10 (20:54):
Warm reception to that one hundred and sixty one million
dollar boost. This money will go towards one hundred and
fifteen new classrooms three brand new schools. More than half
of it is specifically set aside for the Salwyn region,
which we talk about all the time. It's New Zealand's
fastest growing district. That will include a new school in
Lincoln as well as land earmarked.
Speaker 4 (21:14):
For at school in Prebleton.
Speaker 10 (21:15):
There will also be fifty two classrooms at Salwyn's existing schools.
The rest of the fifty three million will go to
fifty one classrooms, including a new school in wider Canterbury,
so as far north as Sefton as far south as Hines.
The Lincoln Primary School principal Chris Nord says, although the
Ministry has been very slow to react with this, this
is game changing for the community as the new classrooms
(21:38):
will provide better teaching and learning spaces. This will add
space for almost two and a half thousand more students.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Oh cool, how's your weather?
Speaker 11 (21:47):
Cloudy today?
Speaker 10 (21:47):
But if showers about this morning northeasterly is turning northwest
and twelve degrees.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
Thank you clear Max, good morning, good morning. And counselors
are fed up with licensing rules in Wellington.
Speaker 12 (21:58):
Yeah, if you've been trying to open a bar in
Wellington the past few years, good luck to you, because
at every step of the way you've had difficulty with
the council. It's licensing committee police. This latest new bar
that's trying to open isn't even on Courtney Place. It's
a flash new craft beer bar that's trying to open
in Candala, the Tesla driving Lata sipping multimillion dollar mansion
(22:18):
Candala that says above the harbor. Dian Calvert's a councilor
started this campaign. She's got virtually the whole council on board.
They all agree it's getting ridiculous. This place is ready
to open, but the Council's committee is pausing its license
for a month because, surprise, surprise, a residence association is
kicking up a fuss. Calvert wants modern rules clarity on
(22:39):
licensing clarity from these groups that purport to speak for
their suburbs, because most of the feedback on social media
has been pro this flash new bar opening up.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
Yeah, this is the problem with when you get when
it comes to making a formal submission to council. Real
people are busy and can't be effed. It's they're just
basically what works, we're anyway? How's you wear the mats?
Speaker 12 (23:02):
What's rain strengthening today?
Speaker 7 (23:05):
Sixteen?
Speaker 12 (23:05):
The high Central?
Speaker 7 (23:06):
Thank you?
Speaker 2 (23:06):
What's the worst that could happen? Anyway? And coupla. These
wealthy women and their tesla's have a few chardonnais and
crashing on the way home.
Speaker 11 (23:15):
It's not that bad as that I can ever get
into those teslas, you know when they have them in
the uber tunes up.
Speaker 12 (23:19):
Like who's the handle?
Speaker 11 (23:21):
And some of them they're up the top and there.
Some of them are at the bottom and confusing, and
the uba drivers always looking at me like, yes, stupid woman.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Are and we can't give it. It's actually scarier trying
to get out because you think, oh are they keeping me?
Have I been kidnapped? And I didn't know anyway? Hey,
big night for Lord fans in Auckland Central last night.
Speaker 11 (23:43):
This was so cool. So she was holding the surprise
pop up gig in a bathroom. It was a women's bathroom,
as well, but I think men were able to go
in there. So it was, you know, this impromptuy concert.
They were gathering just outside the YMCA, just off Vincent Street,
just up the road from here. So thirty people were
let in at a time for a fifteen minute private
(24:05):
gig was Lord in this bathroom, imagine that. And this
was all part of her, you know, her new album,
The Preview of Virgin. So she was holding this and
we see.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
That weird, isn't that?
Speaker 11 (24:16):
Well, it is a bit, but I suppose it's just
that young funkiness of let's do something, do.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
Something different, cool scavenger, haven't find me in the city somewhere.
Speaker 11 (24:25):
I was just thinking of bathroom. I hope it was
a clean bathroom. Imagine.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
Well my first thought was the last time it popstar
went in the bathroom, they got in a bit of trouble.
Remember George Michael.
Speaker 9 (24:34):
Oh, that's right.
Speaker 11 (24:35):
I was a huge fan of George Michael.
Speaker 8 (24:38):
That's right.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
Careful. How's the weather?
Speaker 11 (24:42):
Scattered morning showers, rain, heavy at times, squady thunderstorms, hail possible,
stay home and exactly nineteen is the high.
Speaker 2 (24:51):
Thank you so much, seventeen to six news Talk, said
b we'll get to our economists just before six o'clock
on the OCI and Mitch McCanns stateside.
Speaker 1 (24:59):
Next, International correspondence with Ends and Eye Insurance, Peace of
mind for New Zealand business production.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
Just talks, did be Nick Toughley on the OICR next
right now, Mitch mccannon state side for US much Good morning, Ryan,
good morning, how are you good? Thank you? Now I
see what Marco Rubio has been up to with visa
and holting student visas. What's the latest on this? Yeah,
this is right.
Speaker 13 (25:22):
The Trump administration has ordered embassies around the world to
stop scheduling new appointments for people that want to come
to the US on student visas for a time now.
The reason it's pausing this, it says, according to a memo,
is because it wants to expand social media vetting to
making sure that the people that come to the United
States on student visas are the sort of people they want.
(25:43):
They're going to go through social media accounts, making sure
there's no anti Semitism and all this sort of thing. Now,
this is part of the Trump administrations are crackdown on
US universities. In recent days, it has tried to stop
Harvard enrolling foreign students altogether. Now, this is critical for
a number of these institutions because it's a big.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
Way that a lot of them make money. Fascinating. I
wonder whether because they're not doing this with tourists, right,
they're not being as hardcore, but they do look on
you if you get to the border that sometimes they
look you up. But I wonder whether someone like the
you know from the Green Party here very vocal about Gars,
that are very vocal about Israel, whether they would get
into the States these days. Well here, I do wonder that.
Speaker 13 (26:24):
I mean, at this stage it is only student visas,
but some of the people that have been picked up
by the State Department, you know, people on university campuses
who have been arrested. Some of them haven't directly even
been involved in some of the protests. Some of them
have just written things online quite simply. So, Yeah, that
is a fair argument. There would be some people coming
into the country are pretty nervous about actually being allowed in.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
Hey, Musk is not happy with the big Well he
likes the beautiful part, but not the big part of.
Speaker 7 (26:50):
The beautiful bill.
Speaker 13 (26:53):
Yeah, that's right, he says, you can't have big and beautiful.
You can maybe have one not the other. This is
the bill from Donald Trump where he's going to bring
in tax cuts, more border spending. He's going to start
a child savings account for American children, which he's actually
called the Trump Accounts. But Elon Musk says he's disappointed
to see this spending bill because it's going to increase
(27:14):
the deficit. Of course, Elon Musk came in with doze
this Department of Government efficiency to try and reduce our
government debt.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
But this bill is going to do the exact opposite.
Speaker 13 (27:22):
It's thought it could add six hundred billion US dollars
every year to the federal deficit.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
Mitch, thank you. Mitch mcan our US correspondent with US
this morning. It is twelve minutes away from.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Six Bryan Breds.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
So we've got another OCI cut down twenty five points
to three point twenty five uncertainty again, Rain's Supreme. They
reckon we'll get another cut at their next meeting, but
there's a bunch of caveats to that. Inflation will hit
two point seven percent nearly out of range, then come
down to two percent next year. Nick Tuffley, chief Economist,
Today's be backed with me this morning, Neck, good morning morning.
Does the fact that they had to vote on this
(27:56):
one make it more or less hopeful that they will
do a cut next time?
Speaker 14 (28:02):
Look, it is really a reflection of just how much
uncertainty there is out there. And the member of the
committee that voted to keep things on hold just really
wanted more time to see how some of the inflation
risks pan out. And of course the big one is
what Donald Trump is doing with the tariffs and just
how that will impact inflation in New Zealand. I think
(28:24):
we'll still get another cut next month. We still think
we'll get two more in fact, but there's still that
uncertainty about just how far the Reserve Bank will go,
and also when it's almost possible that we'll pause at
some point.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
The Trump uncertainty thing, the only certain thing about him
is that he is uncertain. Does that not take some
of the unpredictability of it out of the equation?
Speaker 14 (28:47):
Well, the challenge is that when you have an uncertain environment,
you get people who don't make decisions, and that also
flows through and potentially weakens the economy. For the Reserve Bank,
where they seem to have been debating, there's global growth
will slow. What will that do to inflation? Is it
going to be a bit like a supply shop or
a cost shop where it just gets more expensive to
(29:08):
make stuff around the world, or is the dominating fact
going to be people stop buying things, you get weaker demand,
you get slow exports from New Zealand, and less inflation pressure.
So they've assumed that's what's going to happen. But they
are in two minds and that's where the internal debate
seem to have been for this meeting.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
And then you look at consumer confidence bouncing back in
the US, you look at some of that Chinese industrial
profit number, you look at a whole bunch of stuff.
I mean, it's not actually doom and gloom, is it.
Speaker 14 (29:41):
Look it's not overall. I think with the brink being
sort of pulled back from particularly around China and the US,
you are getting some of the lurching from a sort
of almost a freeze on some trade and manufacturing to
it's starting to turn around. But look, even that is
doing some damage in the term. And the reality is
(30:02):
is that when you look at the US consumers there
will have slightly this money to go around. In China,
there's going to be slightly this manufacturing activity. There will
be ripple effects coming through, but no, not the end
of the world, but it is in our view likely
to dampen in place when you're looking a year or
two out.
Speaker 2 (30:18):
They spoke about, you know, the three percent neutral rate,
and there was people asking at the press conference, you know,
do you go lower so that you start reaving things up?
And they say, basically, we don't like that word anymore.
It's a little bit obsolete because we're so close to neutral.
We're going to start using quote feel our way. What's
that about?
Speaker 14 (30:37):
Well, I think that's reality is like neutral, some concept
where you can never really see it, and they see
it somewhere between two and a half and three and
a half, so they're kind of in that territory at
the moment. It's kind of like trying to engineer a
landing in the fog. You kind of have to sort
of almost sort of wait until you feel a bit
of rumbling from the ground coming through. Where we are
at the moment, you can see there's a bit of
(30:58):
a lag in the impact of interest rates coming through.
That's pretty clear, and that's always there. But it does
look like with the economy just taking a little bit
of time for that's a domestic spending to get going that.
We still need interest rates to go with.
Speaker 2 (31:12):
Them yet, Yeah, but not too low because they don't
want to overcook things the other way right, And there's
a time leg as you say.
Speaker 14 (31:20):
Yep, there's always the art and you're doing it where
it takes two years for what you do to hear
it's full effect as well, so it's not easy.
Speaker 2 (31:27):
Appreciate your time, Nick Nick touughly A'sbchief Economists eight to
six Newstalk ZB.
Speaker 1 (31:33):
Get ahead of the headlines on early edition with Ryan
Bridge and one roof Make your Property Search Simple News
Talk ZEDB.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
Good morning, Ryan, the Napier topel road's just gone back
to one hundred ks up from eighty. Yay, it's just happened.
Very happy, good for you. Six away from six mics here.
Good morning, Mike, good morning. Have you seen this New
Zealand Initiative supermarket report? Also, so what Sue Chepman says,
this has just been paid for by the super markets
who don't want to be broken up.
Speaker 4 (32:02):
Oh no, no, no, you don't want to believe what
Seu says. If you read the report, what they're arguing.
I think they're wrong. I think they're wrong. But what
they're arguing is that you let the market speak for
itself and.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
Get the government out of the way.
Speaker 4 (32:15):
But get the government out of the way, but allow
through regulation the ability for people who want to come
in to come in. Now, what I don't understand about
what they're saying, and what's unfair about it because their
free market thinkers, yes, is that under their new rules
and regulations, the current players can't participate. So you lock
the current players out while allowing allegedly all these people
around the world who just can't wait to get into
(32:37):
the country access to the marketplace.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
Yeah, but a lot of it is to do with
ther overseas investment approvals and the like, which these companies
who are here don't need.
Speaker 4 (32:46):
No, indeed they not. But what they're saying is you
can't log I mean, what you could argue is is
as the market changes and all these new people arrive
into the marketplace. This is where I think they're wrong.
I don't think anyone's coming into the country. I mean,
if you think there's a gap in the market, it
and your costco or ELD, who you take it you've
worked this threat.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
I interviewed that the former managing director of Costco a
few months ago, and he said the biggest problem for
them was zoning of the land that they normally Costco
built up and they came here and that built their
first flat shop.
Speaker 4 (33:16):
The only thing that makes sense in that report is
that what they're arguing is for consent purposes. You go
consented as a package, so you go, Hi, I'm Costco.
I want thirty seven supermarkets on thirty seven bits of
land all over the country. So you deal with it
in a one stop shop where it is being do
it all at once.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
That makes it so. That does make sense.
Speaker 4 (33:35):
But my argument has always been there aren't that there's
only five million of us, This idea that somehow where
Europe and the whole world is waiting to come in.
Speaker 2 (33:44):
It's like why Hecky Island saying that that's US compared
to the restaurant.
Speaker 4 (33:48):
Worldstly, and that's the bit I think the report this
is anyway, Prime Minister's in this morning because he's better
and Christian Hawksby's in this morning, so some interesting questions
for him.
Speaker 2 (33:59):
All right for a look forward to where do you shop? Barrow?
I was in Faroh yesterday, actually picked what did you
do there? What did you get? I've got a little
Vietnamese summer role.
Speaker 14 (34:10):
Love.
Speaker 4 (34:10):
Do you realize what that sounds like when you say
stuff like that. No, I was at Faroh yesterday and
I got a lovely little Vietna It was.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
An exception to the role. That's why I'm telling the story.
Speaker 4 (34:20):
What do you normally buy something?
Speaker 2 (34:22):
Countdown with a half a Chicken hot truck.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live
to news talks. It'd be from five am weekdays, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
The issues these and the inside Ryan Bridge on early
edition with one roof make your Property search simple, used
Talks B.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Good morning, It has just gone six after five News
Talks D B. The OCI. Yes, we bought the car,
but how certain are we about further cups after this one?
We'll speak to an economist just before six o'clock. Elon
Musk doesn't really like Trump's big beautiful bill. We'll tell
you why. Over in Berlin, Merch is getting quite involved
with the Ukraine war. He's done a deal with Zelensky
(00:34):
on missiles. We've got details. Mitch mccannon's stateside International students
here still down forty percent on pre COVID. The ministers
on to explain why, and a new supermarket fix that
doesn't involve breaking up businesses.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
The agenda.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
In Berlin, Frederick Murgs and Vilensky did that deal helping
Kiev produce long range missiles to defend itself from Russian attack.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
We will further increase pressure on Russia in order to
weaken the war machinery in Moscow, but we will also
do it in order to open up paths towards negotiation.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Ober in France, this former French surgeon who sexually abused patients.
He gets twenty years. The trial spark outraged it was
revealed during proceedings he was allowed to continue to treat
children despite a conviction in two thousand and five for
downloading pedophile images. I saw no sincerity from him. I
just hope he cannot hurt people anymore, but I don't
(01:37):
expect him to change. On government and our society are
not outraged.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
The rape of children seems too complicated to acknowledge.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Spros the Knights.
Speaker 4 (01:45):
This exists.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Trump's big beautiful bill is too big for Elon Musk.
Speaker 5 (01:50):
Big beautiful bill, you know, I was like disappointed to
see the massive spending bill. Frankly, Press the bunch steps
that not. This decrease it and it reminds the work
that the Doge team is doing. I think a book
can be can be big or it can be beautiful.
(02:10):
I don't know if it could be both.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
He also remember he was going to shave billions off
the government budget with Doge and ended up only being
a couple one hundred million. Anyway, he's not happy with that.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
On your radio and online on iHeartRadio Early edition with
Ryan Bridge and One Roof make your property search simple.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
If you talk said, be nine two the number to text.
We'd love to hear from you this morning. So Luxon
comes out yesterday, big smile on his face. Nicolas there
with a nice dress on. We're not meant to talk
about her dress, but who really cares, and so he should.
He's in government. Interest rates have come down two hundred
and twenty five basis points since the peak last year.
We're now sitting on three point two five, so close
(02:54):
to neutral. In fact, we're so close to neutral now
the Bank says they're not really using that term anymore.
It's almost obsolete. They don't like it. They're going to
quote feel their way. At this point, they're promising a
further cut. In fact, their low point is now two
point nine percent rather than three point one, which it
was under or So this is all great news if
(03:14):
you're in a government. It is way more significant for us,
way more significant for your average punter than any budget
would be. They reckon that since the peak. If you've
got a five hundred thousand dollars mortgage, your fortnightly repayments
will be cut by three hundred dollars, so you'll have
an extra three hundred dollars a fortnight in your back pocket.
(03:35):
Didn't get that from the budget, did you? This is
the power of monetary policy. Close to half of all
mortgage holders are due to fix their loans from June,
that is half a million mortgages. Now there is an
economic argument going on here. Can Luxon claim victory for this?
Does he go into a victory parade, which is basically
(03:56):
what he did yesterday with Nikola. Here's what Hawksby's the governor.
Hawksby had to say when asked about the impact of
the budget on their decision yesterday. Have a listen.
Speaker 6 (04:07):
We were delighted that the government announced its budget before
we met as a Monetary Policy Committee, and that meant
that we had all that information in front of us
and we could take that as given. It had a
very little role to play in terms of the decision
we made today relative to previously. There were unders and
(04:29):
overs in terms of the impact of the budget. The
investment boost scheme providing some support to business investment and
that's factored into our projections. But on the other side,
some active decisions around reducing government expenditure. They effectively met out.
And it remains the same story that government spending as
(04:50):
a portion of potential output is looking to be falling
through our projection period.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
So basically that was Christian hawksby Toss neutral and therefore
not really relevant to the decision making. But that is
not the same thing as saying it had no impact
at all. If the government was burrowing to the helt
and spending like a drunken sailor, it would have affected things.
So by not doing that and focusing on the quality
(05:18):
of the spending it has, in a perverse kind of way,
had an impact Bread even though Hawksbeak says it didn't.
I mean, I guess that the moral of the stories
it could have been a lot worse, and then it
would have changed the trajectory potentially. Right eleven minutes after
five year on News Talks, there b a lot to
talk about this morning. There's a new report from the
New Zealand Initiative which skirts around the issue of breaking
(05:43):
up supermarkets in order to fix the duopoly. And we're
talking also to Penny Simmons about these international students still
forty percent down on pre COVID. We'll ask why.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Bryan Bridge on affill the edition, where's one roof make
your property search simple?
Speaker 2 (06:00):
News Dog zibby news Dog Zibi. It's just gone fourteen
after five our foreign student numbers are down. Ministry of
Education shows there was a forty percent decrease from the
peak in twenty sixteen. Universities rebounding post COVID, but secondary
schools and vocational training are lagging. Penny Simmons is the
Vocational education minister with me this morning. Minister, Good morning,
(06:22):
good morning Ryan. Why are we down forty percent? Still?
Speaker 7 (06:26):
Tapooking? Tapooking has centralized everything they did, all the marketing centrally.
Nobody knew what tapooking was overseas. They required everything to
be the same, so whether you were offering courses an
in Vcago or Auckland, you had to have the same price.
So Auckland numbers have come back a little quicker, but
(06:48):
certainly the regions they just haven't come back at all.
You couldn't do anything innovative or different. You couldn't do
things like having free English for spouse so that they
integrate into community. So it just killed off any innovation,
anything that was done in the regions to particularly attract
(07:08):
international students.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
So you're saying the first thing you said was that
they were advertising as tapooking and no one knew what
it was. Do you mean that they didn't go out
to the international market and say this is New Zealand.
Speaker 7 (07:21):
Well they said New Zealand, but they didn't say what
the institutions were. So you couldn't go out and market
yourself as Nelson Polytechnic, an MIT or Otago Polytechnique. You
had to be Tapooking and the new branch of.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Is that important because international students would be going and
researching those places and saying, oh, this looks good and
I can trust that one.
Speaker 7 (07:48):
Yes. And also they knew the name polytechnic. They know
what a polytechnic is, they know what an institute of
technology is. They certainly didn't know what a two people
what a shambos. Same thing happened in Queensland when they
are centralized all their tapes Exactly the same thing happened.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
So why what are we a year and a half
in What what are we currently marketing ourselves as.
Speaker 7 (08:13):
They are starting to be able to market themselves individually,
but it's only just started.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Well, what's taken you so long? I mean, fair enough,
they bug it it up, But what's taking you so long?
Speaker 7 (08:25):
Well, we've got the legislation going through the House now
to disestablish tape pooking here. But while take pooking is there,
I can't instruct them to do anything. Why not because
they had their own entity. I don't have the well.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Rip them up, push them as.
Speaker 7 (08:44):
That's exactly what we're doing now, how can.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
It take I think, look, if this is this is
a serious issue on twenty seven, this is worth billions
of dollars. We're forty percent down on pre COVID. You've
got an institution that's been created by a previous government
you've got no control over, and it takes you a
year and a half to even dismantle it.
Speaker 7 (09:04):
Yes, it does because the legislation takes a long time
to get risen. It's a really complex bit of legislation.
But also because the finances are such a mess, and
so we're having to go through and unpick all the
financial difficulties. There are some that went in in debt,
some went in with reserves, all that got amalgamated. So yeah,
(09:26):
it's been a nightmare that we're unpicking it. It will
be undone by one January next year.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
One January we will have be free of tapooking. It
and then when and from then universe polytechs can start
advertising themselves as who they are.
Speaker 7 (09:43):
They are starting to now they've got the message to
Pooking has got the message. They're starting to, but they've
only just been allowed to charge their own fees and
that's been a big barrier.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Any what is your target date for getting this number
back to pre COVID.
Speaker 7 (10:01):
I think it'll take two years from when we get disestablished.
King had disestablished, so I think.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
It will be come out of years. Eight January twenty
twenty eight. We'll have a conversation.
Speaker 7 (10:13):
Penny, please do I look forward to it.
Speaker 2 (10:16):
Good to have you on the show, Penny Simmons. Who's
the Minister for Vocational and Education? It is eighteen after
five year. On news talks, there'd b we'll get to
Mitch McCanns Stateside shortly and supermarkets the new plan that
doesn't involve dismantling the duopoly. That's next, The news you
need this.
Speaker 1 (10:34):
Morning and the in depth analysis early edition with Ryan
Bridge and One Room Make your Property search Simple.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
News talks they'd be I'll get you some details shortly
on the Berlin meeting between Zelensky and Mertz it's quite
interesting what they're doing over in America. Marco Rubio's put
out a tweet. He's announcing new visa restrictions for foreigners
who are quote complicit in censoring Americans. So if you
work for a government around the world, look out, it
(11:03):
could be coming your way. Foreign officials, it says, and
persons who are complicit and censoring Americans. They Americans have
been fined, harassed, and even charged by foreign authorities for
exercising their free speech rights, and foreigners who undermine those
rights should not enjoy the privileges of traveling to our country,
says Marco Rubio this morning. He have previously targeted the
(11:28):
European Digital Services Act, which we've spoken about before. It's
aimed at preventing disinformation. Remember we were going to have
one of these. And so the question is should you
be able to spread lies on the Internet? And I
think yes you should because you can run down the
street and lie a liar to your pants are on fire,
and that's totally legal. So why shouldn't you be able
to do it online? We just need to be smarter
about who and what we trust. Twenty one after five,
(11:53):
Andy Gillan's Initiative have come up with a plan to
bring competition to the grocery sector. They've drafted up a
bill for the government. Here you go on a platter.
They say that consense and rezoning processes need to be
streamlined with a pathway opened up for a third retailer.
So Chetwin's the Grocery Action Group with us this morning.
So good morning, good morning. What do you make of this.
There's no need to bash the heads of these stuopolies.
(12:15):
You just actually get government out of the way.
Speaker 8 (12:19):
Look, I think that this would be nice to have,
but you have to recognize that this report would have
been put out with the financial support of Willworth food
Stuff and Fonterra, who are really big supporters probably of
the status quo. So what our problem in New Zealand
(12:43):
is is not that we don't have enough land. We
have enough supermarkets, but what we have is too few operators.
We have too few competitors. And what this government has
seen is that we can't get competitor because we're paying
the highest price to some of the highest prices in
(13:04):
the world because we have a lack of competition. What
we need is more competitors and to get more competitors.
Speaker 7 (13:12):
They probably have to look at.
Speaker 8 (13:14):
Forcing the existing the incumbents to actually divest some of
the stores that they have, because we have plenty of
super markets, we just don't have enough operators.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
You said there's enough land. Whenever anyone tries to build anything,
there is opposition. There's I mean there's a labor MP
in christ Church is trying to stop a supermarket being built.
I interviewed the former managing director of Costco. He said
the biggest problem was zoning for land and bringing his
supermarket here. So there is a problem, there isn't there.
Speaker 8 (13:47):
I think, as I said, I think this would be
a nice to have, But all the land that would
have been useful for supermarkets has in the past being
bought by will We've food staffs, food stuffs to stop
others competing, and the Commerce Commission has stopped that behavior.
Speaker 7 (14:09):
They've yeah, so so that man.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Is now you think though, so you think this is
this report has actually just been bought by the big dogs.
Speaker 8 (14:20):
Look, I think I think it has. It's to slow
down any activity because Nikola Willis has definitely said that
she's looking at this and divestment is on the table.
They want to stop that happening, because that would encourage
real competition. And even within this report they talk about,
(14:43):
you know, oh, freeing up land for twelve new players,
well twelve new are sorry, twelve twelve new stores. But
that's not going to cut the mustard. I mean, thirty
new stores wouldn't cut the mustard. Now we're talking about
allowing competition to come into this country at scale fast,
so that actually means divestment.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
So appreciate your time responding, stead chetwin Grosser Reaction Group.
It is twenty five after five the early.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
Edition full the Show podcast on iHeartRadio, how It By News.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
Talks AB News Talks b twenty seven after five another
Reserve Bank rate cut. It was largely as expected, twenty
five basis points. The rest of the press conference and
much of the monetary policy statement that followed was focused
on the unpredictable global environment. We can't say this because
we don't know what Trump will do. We can't be
(15:34):
certain about that because Trump and the trade war, etc.
But at what point does unpredictability become predictable and therefore
not the great threat that we make it out to be. Yes,
Trump went nuts on Liberation Day. The sky fallon. He
then calls a ceasefire in May. The markets have recouped
all of their losses since then. The end of seas
(15:55):
are patchy, but largely back to where they were. Trade
talks are ongoing. The IMF yesterday upgraded Britain's growth. US
consumer confidence actually increased last month for the first time
in five China's industrial growth for April was positive yesterday.
Our agricultural experts are doing the business abroad. Trump rants
(16:17):
and raves on Twitter. He unannounces stuff as quickly as
he announces stuff. He's impulsive, he's emotionally reactive, vindictive. He's
a weather vein, the political equivalent of Katy Perry. Because
he's hot, then he's cold. He's in, then he's out.
He's up, then he's down. He's wrong when it's right,
(16:40):
he's black when it's white. You get where I'm going
with this. The point is we know this about him.
We know he's unpredictable, and that makes his unpredictability predictable.
I reckon we aren't taking his threats as seriously as
we were two months ago. Not the US consumer, not
Chinese industry, not US and you know who else should
(17:03):
stop paying him so much, damn attention the Reserve Bank.
Ryan Bridge shows B twenty nine.
Speaker 5 (17:10):
After Folk.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
My Flint be I See if you live There. Lots
of texts about the OCR and also Penny Simmons the
interview we just had with the vacation minister. We'll get
to that after the break. Our reporters and Mitch mccannon
State Side US Talk set B, the.
Speaker 1 (17:48):
First Word on the News of the Day Early edition
with Ryan Bridge, and one roof Make Your Property Search
Symbol News Talk PY.
Speaker 7 (18:06):
Good Morning, twenty.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
Four away from six News Talk SAVV. Welcome to your
Thursday morning. Mitch McCann is in the state for US.
Donald Trump's just done a press conference, spoken about Russia
and a bunch of other stuff. We'll talk to him.
Nick Tuffley from ASB on the OCR announcement yesterday and
just how low the rates might go? Is now the
time to lock him that sort of stuff. Lots of
text on Penny Simmons, the minister on the program a
(18:28):
short time ago. She's the vocational education Minister. We're still
forty percent down on our international student numbers. The universities
have bounced back somewhat, but it's your secondary school and
your vocational education. We're still way behind on pre COVID.
And she said it was to poo Kinger, she said
(18:49):
it was quite incredible to listen to. Actually, she said
to poo Kinger comes along, this is the is and
points out Ryan, remember who set to pooking her up?
It was Hapkins sets that up, this big overarching agency.
They go out to market to international students with the
name to Pookinger, and you can't market your individual polytech
to these students. So they're going, what the hell is
(19:11):
to Pookinger? And where do I google that? And where
is its credentials? And how do I That makes no
sense to me. If you've got a brand, if you're
a polytech and into cargo, you've got a good brand,
You've been doing it for a long time. Taking away
your right to market yourself makes no sense. And anyway,
the numbers reflect this, Ryan, was that Penny on a
few seconds ago. She speaks a lot of sense, as
(19:32):
does the woman about the supermarket. Sue Chapman was on
about supermarkets this morning. Two smart women on the show. Yeah,
and it happens, It happens often. We're about to hear
from Neva she's a smart woman on the show.
Speaker 8 (19:46):
Right.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
It is twenty two minutes away from six Crayon Bridge.
Get to our reporters around the country, Color Procter and
Tonedin Good Morning. Want to write a big celebration for
Otago Med School.
Speaker 7 (19:58):
Yes, it's so.
Speaker 9 (19:59):
One hundred and fifty celebrations from today and the commemorations
are well underway. They are on through until Sunday to
celebrate alumni, past and presence staff and also current students.
The organizers say they'll be honoring a century and a
half of clinical training, research and innovation across the schools
Duned and christ Church and Wellington campuses. The University Vice
(20:22):
Chancelly here Grunt Robertson says this is a wonderful opportunity
to acknowledge the ways in which the school continues to
be influential.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
There's a full weekend program.
Speaker 9 (20:30):
There's tours of the school, lighthearted medical review show and
also a big Garla dinner.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
Sounds lovely, expensive but lovely. How's the weather, Color Well,
not good for the start of the celebrations. Occasional rain today, southerly,
strong at times a high of just eleven. Claire Sherwood
and christ Church, High Claire. Good morning now, big boost
for Canterbury schools from the government indeed, and a.
Speaker 10 (20:54):
Warm reception to that one hundred and sixty one million
dollar boost. This money will go towards one hundred and
fifteen new classrooms three brand new schools. More than half
of it is specifically set aside for the Salwyn region,
which we talk about all the time. It's New Zealand's
fastest growing district. That will include a new school in
Lincoln as well as land earmarked.
Speaker 4 (21:14):
For at school in Prebleton.
Speaker 10 (21:15):
There will also be fifty two classrooms at Salwyn's existing schools.
The rest of the fifty three million will go to
fifty one classrooms, including a new school in wider Canterbury,
so as far north as Sefton as far south as Hines.
The Lincoln Primary School principal Chris Nord says, although the
Ministry has been very slow to react with this, this
is game changing for the community as the new classrooms
(21:38):
will provide better teaching and learning spaces. This will add
space for almost two and a half thousand more students.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Oh cool, how's your weather?
Speaker 11 (21:47):
Cloudy today?
Speaker 10 (21:47):
But if showers about this morning northeasterly is turning northwest
and twelve degrees.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
Thank you clear Max, good morning, good morning. And counselors
are fed up with licensing rules in Wellington.
Speaker 12 (21:58):
Yeah, if you've been trying to open a bar in
Wellington the past few years, good luck to you, because
at every step of the way you've had difficulty with
the council. It's licensing committee police. This latest new bar
that's trying to open isn't even on Courtney Place. It's
a flash new craft beer bar that's trying to open
in Candala, the Tesla driving Lata sipping multimillion dollar mansion
(22:18):
Candala that says above the harbor. Dian Calvert's a councilor
started this campaign. She's got virtually the whole council on board.
They all agree it's getting ridiculous. This place is ready
to open, but the Council's committee is pausing its license
for a month because, surprise, surprise, a residence association is
kicking up a fuss. Calvert wants modern rules clarity on
(22:39):
licensing clarity from these groups that purport to speak for
their suburbs, because most of the feedback on social media
has been pro this flash new bar opening up.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
Yeah, this is the problem with when you get when
it comes to making a formal submission to council. Real
people are busy and can't be effed. It's they're just
basically what works, we're anyway? How's you wear the mats?
Speaker 12 (23:02):
What's rain strengthening today?
Speaker 7 (23:05):
Sixteen?
Speaker 12 (23:05):
The high Central?
Speaker 7 (23:06):
Thank you?
Speaker 2 (23:06):
What's the worst that could happen? Anyway? And coupla. These
wealthy women and their tesla's have a few chardonnais and
crashing on the way home.
Speaker 11 (23:15):
It's not that bad as that I can ever get
into those teslas, you know when they have them in
the uber tunes up.
Speaker 12 (23:19):
Like who's the handle?
Speaker 11 (23:21):
And some of them they're up the top and there.
Some of them are at the bottom and confusing, and
the uba drivers always looking at me like, yes, stupid woman.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Are and we can't give it. It's actually scarier trying
to get out because you think, oh are they keeping me?
Have I been kidnapped? And I didn't know anyway? Hey,
big night for Lord fans in Auckland Central last night.
Speaker 11 (23:43):
This was so cool. So she was holding the surprise
pop up gig in a bathroom. It was a women's bathroom,
as well, but I think men were able to go
in there. So it was, you know, this impromptuy concert.
They were gathering just outside the YMCA, just off Vincent Street,
just up the road from here. So thirty people were
let in at a time for a fifteen minute private
(24:05):
gig was Lord in this bathroom, imagine that. And this
was all part of her, you know, her new album,
The Preview of Virgin. So she was holding this and
we see.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
That weird, isn't that?
Speaker 11 (24:16):
Well, it is a bit, but I suppose it's just
that young funkiness of let's do something, do.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
Something different, cool scavenger, haven't find me in the city somewhere.
Speaker 11 (24:25):
I was just thinking of bathroom. I hope it was
a clean bathroom. Imagine.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
Well my first thought was the last time it popstar
went in the bathroom, they got in a bit of trouble.
Remember George Michael.
Speaker 9 (24:34):
Oh, that's right.
Speaker 11 (24:35):
I was a huge fan of George Michael.
Speaker 8 (24:38):
That's right.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
Careful. How's the weather?
Speaker 11 (24:42):
Scattered morning showers, rain, heavy at times, squady thunderstorms, hail possible,
stay home and exactly nineteen is the high.
Speaker 2 (24:51):
Thank you so much, seventeen to six news Talk, said
b we'll get to our economists just before six o'clock
on the OCI and Mitch McCanns stateside.
Speaker 1 (24:59):
Next, International correspondence with Ends and Eye Insurance, Peace of
mind for New Zealand business production.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
Just talks, did be Nick Toughley on the OICR next
right now, Mitch mccannon state side for US much Good morning, Ryan,
good morning, how are you good? Thank you? Now I
see what Marco Rubio has been up to with visa
and holting student visas. What's the latest on this? Yeah,
this is right.
Speaker 13 (25:22):
The Trump administration has ordered embassies around the world to
stop scheduling new appointments for people that want to come
to the US on student visas for a time now.
The reason it's pausing this, it says, according to a memo,
is because it wants to expand social media vetting to
making sure that the people that come to the United
States on student visas are the sort of people they want.
(25:43):
They're going to go through social media accounts, making sure
there's no anti Semitism and all this sort of thing. Now,
this is part of the Trump administrations are crackdown on
US universities. In recent days, it has tried to stop
Harvard enrolling foreign students altogether. Now, this is critical for
a number of these institutions because it's a big.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
Way that a lot of them make money. Fascinating. I
wonder whether because they're not doing this with tourists, right,
they're not being as hardcore, but they do look on
you if you get to the border that sometimes they
look you up. But I wonder whether someone like the
you know from the Green Party here very vocal about Gars,
that are very vocal about Israel, whether they would get
into the States these days. Well here, I do wonder that.
Speaker 13 (26:24):
I mean, at this stage it is only student visas,
but some of the people that have been picked up
by the State Department, you know, people on university campuses
who have been arrested. Some of them haven't directly even
been involved in some of the protests. Some of them
have just written things online quite simply. So, Yeah, that
is a fair argument. There would be some people coming
into the country are pretty nervous about actually being allowed in.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
Hey, Musk is not happy with the big Well he
likes the beautiful part, but not the big part of.
Speaker 7 (26:50):
The beautiful bill.
Speaker 13 (26:53):
Yeah, that's right, he says, you can't have big and beautiful.
You can maybe have one not the other. This is
the bill from Donald Trump where he's going to bring
in tax cuts, more border spending. He's going to start
a child savings account for American children, which he's actually
called the Trump Accounts. But Elon Musk says he's disappointed
to see this spending bill because it's going to increase
(27:14):
the deficit. Of course, Elon Musk came in with doze
this Department of Government efficiency to try and reduce our
government debt.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
But this bill is going to do the exact opposite.
Speaker 13 (27:22):
It's thought it could add six hundred billion US dollars
every year to the federal deficit.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
Mitch, thank you. Mitch mcan our US correspondent with US
this morning. It is twelve minutes away from.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Six Bryan Breds.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
So we've got another OCI cut down twenty five points
to three point twenty five uncertainty again, Rain's Supreme. They
reckon we'll get another cut at their next meeting, but
there's a bunch of caveats to that. Inflation will hit
two point seven percent nearly out of range, then come
down to two percent next year. Nick Tuffley, chief Economist,
Today's be backed with me this morning, Neck, good morning morning.
Does the fact that they had to vote on this
(27:56):
one make it more or less hopeful that they will
do a cut next time?
Speaker 14 (28:02):
Look, it is really a reflection of just how much
uncertainty there is out there. And the member of the
committee that voted to keep things on hold just really
wanted more time to see how some of the inflation
risks pan out. And of course the big one is
what Donald Trump is doing with the tariffs and just
how that will impact inflation in New Zealand. I think
(28:24):
we'll still get another cut next month. We still think
we'll get two more in fact, but there's still that
uncertainty about just how far the Reserve Bank will go,
and also when it's almost possible that we'll pause at
some point.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
The Trump uncertainty thing, the only certain thing about him
is that he is uncertain. Does that not take some
of the unpredictability of it out of the equation?
Speaker 14 (28:47):
Well, the challenge is that when you have an uncertain environment,
you get people who don't make decisions, and that also
flows through and potentially weakens the economy. For the Reserve Bank,
where they seem to have been debating, there's global growth
will slow. What will that do to inflation? Is it
going to be a bit like a supply shop or
a cost shop where it just gets more expensive to
(29:08):
make stuff around the world, or is the dominating fact
going to be people stop buying things, you get weaker demand,
you get slow exports from New Zealand, and less inflation pressure.
So they've assumed that's what's going to happen. But they
are in two minds and that's where the internal debate
seem to have been for this meeting.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
And then you look at consumer confidence bouncing back in
the US, you look at some of that Chinese industrial
profit number, you look at a whole bunch of stuff.
I mean, it's not actually doom and gloom, is it.
Speaker 14 (29:41):
Look it's not overall. I think with the brink being
sort of pulled back from particularly around China and the US,
you are getting some of the lurching from a sort
of almost a freeze on some trade and manufacturing to
it's starting to turn around. But look, even that is
doing some damage in the term. And the reality is
(30:02):
is that when you look at the US consumers there
will have slightly this money to go around. In China,
there's going to be slightly this manufacturing activity. There will
be ripple effects coming through, but no, not the end
of the world, but it is in our view likely
to dampen in place when you're looking a year or
two out.
Speaker 2 (30:18):
They spoke about, you know, the three percent neutral rate,
and there was people asking at the press conference, you know,
do you go lower so that you start reaving things up?
And they say, basically, we don't like that word anymore.
It's a little bit obsolete because we're so close to neutral.
We're going to start using quote feel our way. What's
that about?
Speaker 14 (30:37):
Well, I think that's reality is like neutral, some concept
where you can never really see it, and they see
it somewhere between two and a half and three and
a half, so they're kind of in that territory at
the moment. It's kind of like trying to engineer a
landing in the fog. You kind of have to sort
of almost sort of wait until you feel a bit
of rumbling from the ground coming through. Where we are
at the moment, you can see there's a bit of
(30:58):
a lag in the impact of interest rates coming through.
That's pretty clear, and that's always there. But it does
look like with the economy just taking a little bit
of time for that's a domestic spending to get going that.
We still need interest rates to go with.
Speaker 2 (31:12):
Them yet, Yeah, but not too low because they don't
want to overcook things the other way right, And there's
a time leg as you say.
Speaker 14 (31:20):
Yep, there's always the art and you're doing it where
it takes two years for what you do to hear
it's full effect as well, so it's not easy.
Speaker 2 (31:27):
Appreciate your time, Nick Nick touughly A'sbchief Economists eight to
six Newstalk ZB.
Speaker 1 (31:33):
Get ahead of the headlines on early edition with Ryan
Bridge and one roof Make your Property Search Simple News
Talk ZEDB.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
Good morning, Ryan, the Napier topel road's just gone back
to one hundred ks up from eighty. Yay, it's just happened.
Very happy, good for you. Six away from six mics here.
Good morning, Mike, good morning. Have you seen this New
Zealand Initiative supermarket report? Also, so what Sue Chepman says,
this has just been paid for by the super markets
who don't want to be broken up.
Speaker 4 (32:02):
Oh no, no, no, you don't want to believe what
Seu says. If you read the report, what they're arguing.
I think they're wrong. I think they're wrong. But what
they're arguing is that you let the market speak for
itself and.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
Get the government out of the way.
Speaker 4 (32:15):
But get the government out of the way, but allow
through regulation the ability for people who want to come
in to come in. Now, what I don't understand about
what they're saying, and what's unfair about it because their
free market thinkers, yes, is that under their new rules
and regulations, the current players can't participate. So you lock
the current players out while allowing allegedly all these people
around the world who just can't wait to get into
(32:37):
the country access to the marketplace.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
Yeah, but a lot of it is to do with
ther overseas investment approvals and the like, which these companies
who are here don't need.
Speaker 4 (32:46):
No, indeed they not. But what they're saying is you
can't log I mean, what you could argue is is
as the market changes and all these new people arrive
into the marketplace. This is where I think they're wrong.
I don't think anyone's coming into the country. I mean,
if you think there's a gap in the market, it
and your costco or ELD, who you take it you've
worked this threat.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
I interviewed that the former managing director of Costco a
few months ago, and he said the biggest problem for
them was zoning of the land that they normally Costco
built up and they came here and that built their
first flat shop.
Speaker 4 (33:16):
The only thing that makes sense in that report is
that what they're arguing is for consent purposes. You go
consented as a package, so you go, Hi, I'm Costco.
I want thirty seven supermarkets on thirty seven bits of
land all over the country. So you deal with it
in a one stop shop where it is being do
it all at once.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
That makes it so. That does make sense.
Speaker 4 (33:35):
But my argument has always been there aren't that there's
only five million of us, This idea that somehow where
Europe and the whole world is waiting to come in.
Speaker 2 (33:44):
It's like why Hecky Island saying that that's US compared
to the restaurant.
Speaker 4 (33:48):
Worldstly, and that's the bit I think the report this
is anyway, Prime Minister's in this morning because he's better
and Christian Hawksby's in this morning, so some interesting questions
for him.
Speaker 2 (33:59):
All right for a look forward to where do you shop? Barrow?
I was in Faroh yesterday, actually picked what did you
do there? What did you get? I've got a little
Vietnamese summer role.
Speaker 14 (34:10):
Love.
Speaker 4 (34:10):
Do you realize what that sounds like when you say
stuff like that. No, I was at Faroh yesterday and
I got a lovely little Vietna It was.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
An exception to the role. That's why I'm telling the story.
Speaker 4 (34:20):
What do you normally buy something?
Speaker 2 (34:22):
Countdown with a half a Chicken hot truck.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live
to news talks. It'd be from five am weekdays, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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