Kate Hawkesby: Coalition chaos

‘Jacinda was prepared to sell her grandmother”.. read the headline yesterday.  

A statement made by Ron Mark when interviewed about how coalition negotiations have gone in the past with NZ First. Unfortunately, he went on to say in the article that not only was she ready to sell her grandmother, but she did.  

Ouch.  

What an indictment on an already unpopular leader. But it should serve as a warning to Luxon and co as they head into the rocky, murky waters, that is the negotiation of coalition deals. Hopefully they don’t feel they need to sell the grandparents.  

Two other things to bear in mind: one, Winston’s’ a wily old dog, and two, Luxon is new to this politics game. I hope he’s flanked by enough political savvy to keep him from trying to flog the family jewels, but then again, he may not even need Winston. All the talk of the specials leaning left I don’t buy this time round. Remember, a lot of those specials are overseas voters – the very ones who got locked out, pinged in MIQ, missed funerals for loved ones, or scarpered overseas post the lockdowns, in disgust with where our country was going. The brain drainers... how do you reckon they’re voting?  

Yes, the specials tend to lean left – as they have in the past, but this time round is different. This time who's to say they won’t go the way the rest of the votes have gone, a punishment for Labour? The Greens of course always pick up all the student votes, and they may pick up those disgruntled Labour voters who can’t bring themselves to vote for National – but we wait, we watch, we hope for the best.  

And when I say the best, I genuinely believe a two-party government beats a three-party one, purely because there are less moving parts. I said this before the election and I still believe it. And no, it’s not because I hate Winston, as some texters have accused me, I just don’t believe he adds value. He has pet projects he obsesses with: racing, provincial growth fund, superannuitants, but outside of that he seems to not really care. He's a lot of noise and grandstanding, not a lot of action. Although super gold card holders will disagree, they probably think he's the messiah. I’m just not sure NZ First voters this time will get what they wanted or hoped for, out of their vote for him – especially if he’s not even in government.  

So a tricky time of negotiations ahead and I’m not sure how over it we all are in terms of being happy not to hear about any politics for 3 weeks while they sort it out, or desperate to be across every aspect as they go. I mean when Luxon says we’re not negotiating it through the media, that’s fair enough and I believe that’s his wish. But what if ACT or NZ First – if they’re involved, think differently? You’d like to think that with so much rhetoric around the grownups being back in charge, that they would actually all act like grownups, but we’ll see.  

The temptation to use the media will loom large for anyone feeling disgruntled, but it will be a particular irony if that’s Winston given he’s so adept at shunning them and talking them down all the time. But you just know that if anyone's going to loop them in, leak, and play a negotiating game including them, it will be him. Oh the irony. 
So a long three weeks ahead? Or we just don’t care? Let me know what you think. 

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