Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
More drama falls a party. Mardi Edu Kapakini. This is
the guy who led that big protest, big hikoy over
the treaty bill. He's cut ties with the party, saying
it's run like a dictatorship. Talks about it being ego driven.
Chris Sipkins of course not rolling out working with them
next year, but says they're a long way from government,
needs to sort their act out. Liam here as political
commentator with me this morning.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Liam, good morning and good morning here.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Right, So is this good in some ways potentially good
for labor on the Maori seats, but also bad in
terms of forming a government.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
No, I think it's only bad. I don't think that
these type of internal ructions really weaken the minor parties
in the way that they weaken major parties in terms
of how they go with the voters. You know, we've
seen in the past. You know, the Greens have had
a terrible couple of years, right, and the Greens have
had some internal ructions in the past. But because of
(00:54):
the dynamics of how the works of their voters and
how their voters they imagery motivated by different things. Is
it seem to go down in the polls or perform
any worse. As long as they basically hold together, they
can have quite a lot of internal discord and still
retain their voter base. So I think it's only bad
(01:16):
for Labor given that Labor. There hasn't been a single polls.
It's a general election showing Labor able to form a
government at TPM. And the fact of the matter is
that while TPM might not be materially damaged by this,
Labor will be because Labor will have the association and
its Labor voters will be repelled by its not TPM voters.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Which is why you're here to be saying this.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
I think Party Marty have got some internal issues of
their own to work through. They look like they're quite
a long way away from being ready to play a
constructive role in any future government. Is that basically like
a kickoup the JACKSI they've still got time to turn
their party around and be a credible partner for them.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Well, it's not really within control. I don't think you know,
talking about being if he's ruling them out with not
if he's saying that they're a long way off of
being a constrictive party in government with him. But he's
essentially saying that he was to being government, right, So
like perhaps it's a it's probably the strongest sort of
(02:21):
statement that a labor leaders ever made about TVM in
recent years, which just goes to show how reliant they
are on TVM. It's pretty weak objectively, but ultimately if
that's the strongest kind of distancing you're going to get, well,
you know, that's actually pretty weak.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
What about the Marty seats themselves? Do you think we
could see support moving to because obviously the tide's been
turning against labor. Could we see as a result of
this break of the movement some more support for labor
in the Marty seats?
Speaker 3 (02:54):
No, I don't think so, because all of this is
all of us is inside baseball, right. It's not the
type of thing that in those seats is going to
make the difference. You've still got all the energy on
the on the tpm's sort of side. And I think
the best analogy is to the Scottish National Party, which
(03:15):
has sort of wiped out labor in Scotland and which
hasn't really been flown down in that regard by its
own difficulties, internal breakdowns and arguments and factionalism, fun time,
de time. The more dominant thing is that actually TPM
is a more dynamic, more populist movement, and then the
(03:37):
Mouldi electorates, which are a low turnout lecturates. It's actually
that type of energy that matters a lot more. And
I think that the by election written by election is
really the sign of things to come right.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
I appreciate that analysis. Thank you. Liam Here with us
political commentator.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge, Listen live
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