Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on the number of NZ Citizens leaving New Zealand

There's an expectation New Zealanders will continue to file out of the country in high numbers. 

The latest figures from Stats NZ show more than 130,000 people left the country in the year to April, the highest number on record. 

Among those were a record 81,200 NZ citizens. 

ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking that we are moving in the right direction, but there’s still a way to go yet. 

He said it’s reflective of what’s happening offshore as well, as Australia’s unemployment rate is lower than ours, as well as higher wages and lower living costs being on offer.  

He said it’s pretty clear from a New Zealander’s point of view that it’s probably better across the ditch. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
You better get out of the way, because the stampede
of New Zealand is leaving the country rolls on in
record numbers. Fifty six thousand left the country in the
year to April, which beats the previous record, which we
thought was bad enough. Mark Smiths nay As by economists
back with us, Mark.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Morning, Good morning, Mike.

Speaker 1 (00:15):
The bigger picture on immigration, we're still getting nick gains.
The neck gains are slowing. Are we getting the balance
about right? Do you have any view on that or not?

Speaker 2 (00:26):
Yeah, we're moving closer. As you said, the net and
flow at the moment is still one hundred thousand people,
which is absolutely massive historically, But the numbers of arrivals
are certainly slow and the numbers of departures are picking
up as well. So we are moving in the right direction,
but still still a way to go yet.

Speaker 1 (00:43):
Reason I asked the question is Hayes had a survey yesterday.
Twenty five percent of employers are saying, look, it's worse
than last year in terms of skills gaps in the
labor market. Are you seeing that? Is that your view
of what's going on?

Speaker 2 (00:54):
I think, anecdotally is the case. If you look at
an average age of people leaving it's thirty three. Average
age of people coming in this twenty nine, So they
could well be a bit of a mismatch. But between
who's coming and who's leaving, New Zealand's productivity record is
not great and this will only exacerbate that as well.

Speaker 1 (01:12):
Yes, indeed, so as far as the number of kiwis
leaving the country is this, I mean, this is not economics,
it's just per is this getting embarrassing? There is something
wrong with us?

Speaker 2 (01:21):
It tends to happen sort of every decord or so
we saw a similar sort of dynamic and it sort
of you know, ten years ago, twenty years ago, tends
to happen. Really, it's reflectible what's happening offshore as well.
If you look at the opportunities for New Zealander, is
you know, it's probably better across the ditch. I mean
Australia on the point rate at around four percent is
below hours at four and a half and higher wages

(01:43):
on offer lower living costs that it's pretty clear for
from a New Zealand's point of view, where they should
probably be coming.

Speaker 1 (01:51):
When you say lower living costs, here's what I know
about Australia at the moment. I looked at the Hayes
salary business yesterday. Yes, generally if you go to Sydney
you can earn more money and a whole variety of
different jobs, but not a lot, and then you've got rent,
and rent, as far as I can work out in
Australia is a nightmare. And that's before you buy a house,
which is also a nightmare. Is it really that good

(02:11):
or do we just have in mind Australia's berg. It's sunny,
so we might as well go.

Speaker 2 (02:16):
No, Yeah, you're certainly correct, I mean in terms of
relative to incomes. But you're right, I mean it depends.
We do go some places obviously where there is very
very cute skill childrens in Australia. You know, New Zealander's
you know, obviously they're very attractive for Kere. He's there,
but other places are quite different. It's very very similar.

Speaker 1 (02:36):
To the New Zealand and do you think people will
come back? So, as we sit here fretting about all
the young people of the do they eventually when they
get married, want to have kids, raise their kids, et cetera,
still decide New Zealand's okay?

Speaker 2 (02:46):
Yes, I think that's hopefully the case in New Zealand.
New Zealand doesn't really offer you know, it's probably not
the biggest, the best place in the world for salaries,
but the lifestyle in New Zealand is certainly second to none,
and that's a mat magnet for New Zealand's good stuff.

Speaker 1 (03:01):
Make appreciate your expertise as always make Smith asp economist
with the smiling but for more from News Talks ed
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