Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on new migration numbers

New migration numbers may be painting a bleak picture of our economy. 

New Zealand saw it's highest net migration loss to Australia in the year to December in more than a decade - with 30 thousand leaving.

Overall net migration for the May 2025 year levelled out at a gain of just under 15 thousand. 

But ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Andrew Dickens net migration is normally about a 30 thousand person inflow. 

He says over the past few years, there's been a sharp slowdown in the number of people coming in, and we've also seen record numbers leaving - which reflects the weakness in the economy. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So just under thirty thousand New Zealand has left the
country for Australia last year. This marks the highest level
of emigration across the Ditch since twenty twelve, highest in
a decade. Mark Smith has got up early for us
this morning. The senior economists at ASP Good morning to you.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
Mark, Good morning.

Speaker 1 (00:15):
Are these bad numbers or is this the normal outflow
of kiwis as part of our great diaspora.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
I know the figures that are pretty bleak redit you
think about it. Yeah, the normal sort of average for
net migration is about a thirty thousand person inflow. We're
currently running about fifteen thousand, so about half of usual.
What we've seen over the last few years has been
a sharp slowdown and the number of people coming in,
and I've also seen record numbers of people leaving. So

(00:45):
it's really a reflection I suppose of how weak New
zeal economy is.

Speaker 1 (00:49):
I was about to say, so we've got less people
coming in and more people going out, So what does
that say to you?

Speaker 2 (00:54):
Yeah, it's very much a reflection of where we are
at the moment. I mean, comparing with Australia about I
suppose departures at the moment are at a record high,
and of that we've got about seventy thousand kiwis are
going offshore and probably about seventy percent of going to Australia.
So if you compare Australia, the unemprovement rate has been
lower about four percent of the last twelve months. Ours

(01:17):
is five percent and climbing. And that's already a reflection
of where we are at the moment.

Speaker 1 (01:23):
But Australia is a bit of a basket case as well.
Is it the Elderado? Is it the great Savior of people?
If they went over there, are they going to be
any better.

Speaker 2 (01:33):
Comparatively? Probably here, And that's probably the sad reality of
where we are at the moment. But yeah, sure Australia
is not the land of milk and honey for everyone.
But thinks they're comparably stronger over there, and people are
voting with your feet, all.

Speaker 1 (01:46):
Right, So how does this affect the economy? If more
people are going and that means there's people are out
there buying, it helps continue our moribund economy as it stands.

Speaker 2 (01:57):
Yeah, Irad, So I think people are probably sort of
sort of struggling to realize why the New Zealand economy
and consumer spending in the housing market has not really
going anywhere the lasted or twelve months, and this is
really probably one of the key cantalysts is really much
slower population growth and to think how they're viewing things
will be you know, the economy is struggling to gain

(02:20):
traction and with fewer people coming in, what it's really
going to do is really constrained demand and the reserve
bank the key thing will be implacently precious down the
track will be lower. All that's equals and if you
will see the propecial path rate continue to befall from here.

Speaker 1 (02:36):
And it interesting me to think about what that does
to housing because we need less roofs overheads.

Speaker 2 (02:43):
Yeah, that's right. You know, the housing market is really
a key catalyst, very central to migration flows, and the
housing market hasn't really gone in anywhere over the last
twelve months, and a key catalyst that would be very
very low numbers of lower numbers of people coming in
and more people leaving.

Speaker 1 (02:59):
The only answer is to fix the economy. But this
current government's had eighteen months and they're not doing that
great a job at that.

Speaker 2 (03:06):
Well, it takes a long time to ten things around
so that to the moment people are voiding with your
feet unfortunately.

Speaker 1 (03:13):
Mark Smith, thank you for that depressing news.

Speaker 2 (03:16):
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