Paul Spoonley: Massey University Sociologist on the latest net migration figures

Could the worst of the brain drain be over?  

Though migration remains low year-on-year, provisional figures show that net migration for October was up 7% on 2024.  

Massey University Sociologist Paul Spoonley told Andrew Dickens he’s optimistic we’re starting to see it plateauing, if not turning around.  

He says the pull of Australia is still very strong, but in terms on non-New Zealand migrant departures, that’s looking a bit healthier. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Could the worst of the brain train be over? Are
we actually a nice place to live? Are people wanting
to stay? And are people coming? Well? Stat's New Zealand
figures for October so the migrant arrivals were up seven
percent on last year, migrant departures down fourteen percent. People
are coming and people are staying. The monthly net migration
gain was three thy six hundred compared to a gain

(00:21):
of sixteen hundred in September. So e emeritus professor and
Massa University sociologist Paul Soon Paul spoon Lee excuse me,
joins me this morning. Mording to you, Paul, is that
it is at the end of their brain drain, you know.

Speaker 2 (00:35):
Good morning, Andrews. Yes, we've turned a bit of a corner,
it appears. So I'm optimistic that we're beginning to see
it plateauing, if not turning around.

Speaker 1 (00:45):
Okay, so first let's look at the migrant arrivals up
seven percent. Where are these people coming from and why
are they coming?

Speaker 2 (00:52):
The big three countries are India, China, and the Philippines.
In their order, Indian arrivals tend to dominate most fees
of categories. I would say one thing about the Chinese arrivals,
and that is, for every two Chinese that come to
New Zealand, one returns to China. So that's not quite

(01:12):
the turnaround for some of the other groups. The Filipinos
are big and we certainly have seen them arrive in
numbers in the last decade. There is one very interesting
bit to all of this, and that is that in
terms of UK migrants, we're seeing more leaves than arrive.

Speaker 1 (01:31):
Okay, so let's go to the migrant departures of people
running away from this place down fourteen percent. So does
this mean that they can see better times around the corner?

Speaker 2 (01:42):
Yeah? I think so. I think so. There is a butt, Andrew,
and the butt is the New Zealanders. So we're still
seeing more than seventy thousand New Zealanders leave on a
twelve month cycle, and that loss is still hanging around
that forty five thousand mark. So the pull of Australia
is still very very strong, but in terms of migrants

(02:06):
non New Zealand migrant departures, that's looking a bit healthier.

Speaker 1 (02:13):
Well, a bit of good news for this Thursday morning,
and I thank you so much Professor Paul Spinley.

Speaker 2 (02:18):
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