China appears to be testing the waters around Taiwan in an effort to quell its independence.
The superpower has been holding military exercises off the coast of the self-governing island.
Taiwan says it's detected 34 naval vessels and 125 aircraft in formation around it.
Otago University International Relations expert Robert Patman told Ryan Bridge China ideally wants Taiwan to fall into its lap without the use of force.
He says it's an attempt at political intimidation having these drills involving war ships and fighter jets, but Taiwan's condemned the drills and is holding its positions.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Lots of texts coming on China, Taiwan, China's surrounding Taiwan,
and basically military drills yesterday. Good morning, Ryan. With America
currently led by a politically weak, lame duck president and
preoccupied with its election, it makes sense for China to
try and push the line of what's acceptable to try
and force political concessions from Taiwan right now, certainly before
(00:22):
a possible Trump presidency. Thanks Peter, Peter, thanks for your
call your text this morning. Robert Patman, the Ottaga University
international relations experts with me this morning. Robert, Good morning
to you.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Good morning Ryan.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Do you reckon Pete's got a point?
Speaker 2 (00:37):
I think he's got a point. We certainly are entering
what may be described as lame duck territory. But it's
fair to say that China has been quite concerned about
the president the administration running Taiwan for some time. William Lai,
who's thought following in the steps of his predecessor in
(00:58):
saying that Taiwan is an independent country and that China
has no right to speak twenty three million people who
live in Taiwan.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Yeah, he's saying, you won't annex us. Basically and that's
ut China is. Would they have done this if the
US wasn't busy in the Middle East, in Ukraine and
everywhere else, or would you think they would have done
this anyway?
Speaker 2 (01:21):
I think they're testing the waters. This is part of
the long term policy. I mean, ideally, China would like
Taiwan to fall into their lap without the use of force.
It's an attempt at political intimidation having these drills involving
warships and fipro jets. But Taiwan's having none of it.
It condemned the drills, and so it's military are holding
(01:41):
its positions at sea and in the air. And if
China hasn't ruled out use of force in the future,
if it did decide to use force, it would find
out that Taiwan is formable faux potential foe if it
used force. Of course, Taiwan doesn't want that and China
doesn't want that, but they have inflicting political objectives. I
(02:01):
think the Chinese leadership is testing America's result. As you
quite rightly say, America's distracted, particularly by the events in
the Middle East recently, but before and to some degree
also by the Ukraine situation and the Chinese are very
mindful that mister Trump will be cutting America's commitments to Ukraine,
(02:26):
and that would give mister Putin a China ally unti
factor of victory in Ukraine. And this is something to watch.
I think it's not just the lamb Duck actor, which
I think is real, but I think even Biger factor
is a doubt whether mister Trump, despite his rhetoric, would
actually have the same determination to support allies as mister Biden.
(02:53):
At least see mister Trump as much more of a
transactional president who moves from issue to issue and studies
everything case by case.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Can you give us a very quick update Ukraine? Obviously
these oil energy prices outside of the human cost of
these wars. But for little old place like New Zealand,
you know Ukraine, you get your changes to oil prices
the Middle East. We've got our trade routes affected. What
would a blockade of Taiwan mean for New Zealand financially.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Well, it's a very bad news. We have excellent relations
so in Taiwan. I think it's the sixth or seventh
biggest trade partner of New Zealand. And of course China
is our biggest trade partner, so it's potentially a double
where me if those two countries got involved in conflict
and the other thing is At the moment, New Zealand
(03:41):
is struggling to maintain what's called international rules based order,
and the conflict there would only further who rode that process.
Why doesn't you need an international rules based order because
we trade with more than one hundred countries around the
world and we need rules. Rules are there for the week,
not for the strong. And if you had a superpower
flecting its muscles and ignoring international law, again a pattern
(04:05):
we've seen with Ukraine now, Gaza now and possibly Taiwan,
that would be very bad news for small and middle
powers in the world, which are the majority but don't
actually have majority saying what happens.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
Robert Petman, thank you very much for your time. I
Tiger University International Relations expert responding near to the military
drills being conducted by China around Taiwan yesterday.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
to News Talks. It'd be from five am weekdays, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
Lots of texts coming on China, Taiwan, China's surrounding Taiwan,
and basically military drills yesterday. Good morning, Ryan. With America
currently led by a politically weak, lame duck president and
preoccupied with its election, it makes sense for China to
try and push the line of what's acceptable to try
and force political concessions from Taiwan right now, certainly before
(00:22):
a possible Trump presidency. Thanks Peter, Peter, thanks for your
call your text this morning. Robert Patman, the Ottaga University
international relations experts with me this morning. Robert, Good morning
to you.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Good morning Ryan.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Do you reckon Pete's got a point?
Speaker 2 (00:37):
I think he's got a point. We certainly are entering
what may be described as lame duck territory. But it's
fair to say that China has been quite concerned about
the president the administration running Taiwan for some time. William Lai,
who's thought following in the steps of his predecessor in
(00:58):
saying that Taiwan is an independent country and that China
has no right to speak twenty three million people who
live in Taiwan.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Yeah, he's saying, you won't annex us. Basically and that's
ut China is. Would they have done this if the
US wasn't busy in the Middle East, in Ukraine and
everywhere else, or would you think they would have done
this anyway?
Speaker 2 (01:21):
I think they're testing the waters. This is part of
the long term policy. I mean, ideally, China would like
Taiwan to fall into their lap without the use of force.
It's an attempt at political intimidation having these drills involving
warships and fipro jets. But Taiwan's having none of it.
It condemned the drills, and so it's military are holding
(01:41):
its positions at sea and in the air. And if
China hasn't ruled out use of force in the future,
if it did decide to use force, it would find
out that Taiwan is formable faux potential foe if it
used force. Of course, Taiwan doesn't want that and China
doesn't want that, but they have inflicting political objectives. I
(02:01):
think the Chinese leadership is testing America's result. As you
quite rightly say, America's distracted, particularly by the events in
the Middle East recently, but before and to some degree
also by the Ukraine situation and the Chinese are very
mindful that mister Trump will be cutting America's commitments to Ukraine,
(02:26):
and that would give mister Putin a China ally unti
factor of victory in Ukraine. And this is something to watch.
I think it's not just the lamb Duck actor, which
I think is real, but I think even Biger factor
is a doubt whether mister Trump, despite his rhetoric, would
actually have the same determination to support allies as mister Biden.
(02:53):
At least see mister Trump as much more of a
transactional president who moves from issue to issue and studies
everything case by case.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Can you give us a very quick update Ukraine? Obviously
these oil energy prices outside of the human cost of
these wars. But for little old place like New Zealand,
you know Ukraine, you get your changes to oil prices
the Middle East. We've got our trade routes affected. What
would a blockade of Taiwan mean for New Zealand financially.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Well, it's a very bad news. We have excellent relations
so in Taiwan. I think it's the sixth or seventh
biggest trade partner of New Zealand. And of course China
is our biggest trade partner, so it's potentially a double
where me if those two countries got involved in conflict
and the other thing is At the moment, New Zealand
(03:41):
is struggling to maintain what's called international rules based order,
and the conflict there would only further who rode that process.
Why doesn't you need an international rules based order because
we trade with more than one hundred countries around the
world and we need rules. Rules are there for the week,
not for the strong. And if you had a superpower
flecting its muscles and ignoring international law, again a pattern
(04:05):
we've seen with Ukraine now, Gaza now and possibly Taiwan,
that would be very bad news for small and middle
powers in the world, which are the majority but don't
actually have majority saying what happens.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
Robert Petman, thank you very much for your time. I
Tiger University International Relations expert responding near to the military
drills being conducted by China around Taiwan yesterday.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
to News Talks. It'd be from five am weekdays, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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