Ryan Bridge: Budget 2025 will be frugal, but will Budget 2026?

You can’t say we weren’t warned Nicola Willis would be taking to government spending like a butcher to a fresh carcass.

She’s been saying it for months.  Yesterday she halved the operating allowance to $1.3 billion.

All this because she wants to do what she said she’s do, and that’s balance the books by 2029.

The recession’s cut her tax take so you either push your surplus out or you trim your spending.

Labour, of course, says this is austerity, it’s bad, and we should spending more not less. Well, we know where that got us, waist deep in our own shite. Shite that Willis is now wading her way through trying to clean up.

Budgets are just bigger versions of what we all do in our own lives everyday. We make decisions and choices about how much to spend, to borrow, what we spend on and more importantly, what we don’t.

And if you asked most Kiwis what they’re doing right now, are you doing a Hipkins.Are you borrowing and splashing the cash? Stacking the pantry? Making nice brand spanking new purchases? 

Or are you doing a Willis? Spending on the stuff you need, cutting the stuff you don’t, and trying to balance your budget so you can start paying down your debt? 

I reckon most kiwis are doing the latter. So on that score, she’s on the money. 

But here’s the thing to worry about, the political calculation for Budget 2025 will be very different to Budget 2026. You can get away with running a tight ship in the off-season but next year we’re going to the polls.

Just look across the Tasman for a look at how mad that makes us and by extension our politicians.

Albanese's borrowing so much for his election promises that Standard and Poor’s threatening to downgrade their AAA credit rating. There's debt-funded election spending so out the gate it’s pushing government outlays to its highest level since World War Two. 

They’re now promising to cut $7 billion plus out of the public service least they push the boat out too far.

The coalition’s been dining out in the credit card too. Not just the lefties.

And this is the lesson and the warning.

Being frugal and thrifty is easy when you’re not trying to buy an election.

So yes, Willis is making the right noises for now, but next year, might just be a different story.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Where you can't say that we weren't warned. Nikola Willis
will be taking to government spending like a butcher to
a fresh carcass. She has been saying that for months.
Yesterday she has the operating allowance to one point three billion.
All this because she wants to do what she said
she'd do and planned to do, and that's balanced the books.
By twenty twenty nine, the recessions cut her tax take,

(00:20):
So you either push your surplus out or you trim
your spending. Labor of course, says this is austerity and
it's bad and we should be spending more, not less. Well,
we know where that got us, don't We waist deep
in our own shite shape that Willis is now wading
her way through trying to clean it up. Budgets are
just bigger versions of what we all do in our
own day to day lives. We make decisions, We make

(00:41):
choices about how much to spend, how much to borrow,
what we spend on, and more importantly, what we don't.
And if you ask most Keywis today what they're doing
right now, are they doing a hipkins borrowing and splashing
the cash, stacking the pantry with nice brand spanking new
purchases or are they doing a willis spending on the

(01:02):
stuff that you need, cutting the stuff that you don't,
and trying to balance your budget so you can start
paying down your debt. I reckon most Kiwis are doing
the latter, and in that score, she's on the money.
But here's the thing to worry about, and it's a
worry every time there's an election. The political calculation for
budget twenty twenty five will be very different to Budget

(01:24):
twenty twenty six. You can get away with running a
tight ship in the off season, but next year we're
going to the polls. Just look across the Tasman for
a whiff of how mad that makes us and by extension,
our politicians. Elbow's borrowing so much for his spandan angle
election promises that stand in pause, threatening to downgrade their
triple A credit rating. Debt funded elections spending so out

(01:47):
the gate, it's pushing government outlays to the highest levels
since World War II. They're now promising to cut seven
billion dollars out of the public service. Least they push
the boat out too far. And this is a labor
government across the testament. Let's not forget the Coalition's been
dining out on the credit card too. It's not just
the lefties. And this is the lesson and the warning

(02:09):
this morning. Being frugal and thrifty is easy when you're
not trying to buy an election. So yes, Willis is
making the right noises for now, but next year might
just be a different story. For more from Early Edition
with Ryan Bridge, listen live to news Talks it'd be
from five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.