Ryan Bridge: Shocks can come any time

Tongariro is a National Park for a reason. It's a stunning part of the country. 

The fact is currently on fire is worrying not just because it's a fire and you want fires to be put out, but also because of where it's happening. 

Ruapehu/central North island's been taking a hammering lately. 

 It's mills, factories, forestry and tourism. 

Hundreds of jobs gone in mill closures. We've had alpine lifts debacle. The mountain's been battling. All this after Covid. 

Now, summer bookings are at risk with a decent chunk of the park now a raging fire. 

Businesses can only take so much before something breaks.

As it has for many since the heady days of free government money during the pandemic. 

Today we're reporting 115% increase in insolvencies since 2022. 

The problem is not just inflation eating in consumer spending and confidence, but also the sequence of shocks. It's been one thing after another. 

Those on the edge get pushed off. 

The economy, generally, has had inflation, recession, the weather events, tariffs. Worst conditions in 30 years or more. 

What it tells us is that these shocks can come any time, any place, not necessarily with six or seven good years between them. 

What's next? The AI bubble bursting? Another war? An oil shock? Another fire ripping through a tourist hot-spot?

Take your pick. But don't expect it won't come tomorrow.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Tong Riedo is a national park for a reason. It's
a stunning, beautiful part of this country and the fact
that's currently on fire is obviously worrying, not just because
it's a fire and you want filers to be put out,
but also because of where it's happening. It will pay
who Central North Island. I've been taking a hammering lately.
You'll know this. Mills factories, forestry, tourism has been affected.

(00:22):
We've had the alpine lifts debarcle. The mountain's kind of
been battling for a week while all this after COVID,
and now you potentially putting summer bookings at risk with
a decent chunk of the park now raging fire. Businesses
can only take so much before something breaks, as it
has for many since the heady days of free government

(00:44):
money during the pandemic. Today we're reporting one hundred and
fifteen percent increase in insolvent seasons twenty twenty two. The
problem is not just inflation eating into consumer spending and
confidence and all that stuff, but also the sequence of
the shocks. You know, it's kind of one thing after
another and then those on the edge get pushed off.
The economy generally has had inflation, recession, you know, weather events, tariffs,

(01:10):
all this stuff happening. And basically, what I think this
tells us is that shocks can come at any time,
any place, not necessarily with a nice six or seven
good years between them. What is next? Who knows? Is
it the AI bubble bursting as we've been hearing about
for the last couple of months. Is it another war,
is it an oil shock, is it another fire ripping

(01:32):
through a tourist hotspot. Take your pick. But the lesson
I think the message is don't expect that it won't
come soon, or that it won't come tomorrow. For more
from Early edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live to News
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