Ryan Bridge: Trump's unpredictability is predictable

Another Reserve Bank rate cut. 

It was largely as expected - 25 basis points.

The rest of the press conference and much of the Monetary Policy Statement itself was focused on the ‘unpredictable’ global environment. 

We can’t say this because we don’t know what Trump will do. We can’t be certain about that because XYZ. Trade war, etc, etc.

But at what point does unpredictability become predictable, and therefore not the great threat we make it out to be?

Yes, Trump went nuts on Liberation day. The sky fell in, then he calls a ceasefire in May. The markets have recouped all their losses, the indices are patchy but largely back to where they were. Trade talks are ongoing.

The IMF yesterday upgraded Britain’s growth. US consumer confidence actually increased last month. China’s industrial growth for April was positive yesterday. Our agriculture exports are doing the business abroad. 

Trump rants and raves on twitter. He un-announces stuff as quickly as he announces stuff. 

He’s impulsive, emotionally reactive, and vindictive. He’s a weathervane. 

The political equivalent of Katy Perry, cause he’s hot then he’s cold. He’s in then he’s out. He’s up then he’s down. He’s yes then he’s no. He’s wrong when it’s right, he’s black when it’s white...

You get the point. 

The point ism we know this about him.

We know he’s unpredictable and that makes his unpredictability, predictable.

I reckon we aren’t taking his threats as seriously as we were two months ago.

Not the US consumer, not Chinese industry, not us. 

And you know who else should stop paying him so much attention?

The Reserve Bank. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Another Reserve Bank rate cut. It was largely as expected
twenty five basis points. The rest of the press conference
and much of the monetary policy statement that followed, was
focused on the unpredictable global environment. We can't say this
because we don't know what Trump will do. We can't
be certain about that because Trump and the trade war, etc.

(00:21):
But at what point does unpredictability become predictable and therefore
not the great threat that we make it out to be. Yes,
Trump went nuts on Liberation Day, the sky fallon. He
then calls a ceasefire in May. The markets have recouped
all of their losses since then. The endices are patchy,
but largely back to where they were. Trade talks are ongoing.

(00:43):
The IMF yesterday upgraded Britain's growth. US consumer confidence actually
increased last month for the first time in five China's
industrial growth for April was positive yesterday. Our agricultural experts
are doing the business abroad. Trump rant and raves on Twitter.
He unannounces stuff as quickly as he announces stuff. He's impulsive,

(01:07):
he's emotionally reactive, vindictive, He's a weather vein the political
equivalent of Katie Perry. Because he's hot, then he's cold.
He's in then he's out, he's up, then he's down.
He's wrong when it's right, he's black when it's white.
You get where I'm going with this. The point is

(01:28):
we know this about him. We know he's unpredictable, and
that makes his unpredictability predictable. I reckon we aren't taking
his threats as seriously as we were two months ago.
Not the US consumer, not Chinese industry, not US, and
you know who else should stop paying him so much
damn attention the Reserve Bank. For more from Early edition

(01:53):
with Ryan Bridge. Listen live to News Talk said B
from five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on it
Heart radio