Ryan Bridge: world voters are picking certainty at best

No doubt Donald Trump's brand is dicey at home at best but globally, the world has watched on with a mix of amusement and feigned concern. 

These results out of Canada and Australia at the weekend show that brand has turned toxic... like a beef Wellington at a family dinner party. 

We've all seen the host - the chef - tuck in... but now we're thinking hmm... do we want to do the same. 

We can't get much closer in style and substance to Canada and Australia when it comes to democracy - both chained to the Westminster system we inherited Mother England... and both of our cousins have turned on their political oppositions as Trump upends the global order. 

To rub salt in the wound both Poilievre and Dutton lost not just their elections but their seats. 

We spoke about this on Friday but... but what is the message here? Trump is toxic. 

Poilievre's problem was one of style - he sounded and campaigned too much like Trump - the airports hanger with the branded plane behind shots on the nightly news. 

Dutton's problem was more complicated... first.

He ran a crap campaign. Realising a defence plan so expensive it gets funding to 35 of GDP and means you can't Albo's tax cuts in a cost-of-living crisis - and then only releasing that plan two weeks out from campaign day was dumb. 

But it was also about that word economists are spitting out like a bad steak - uncertainty.

Don't ask Luxon though - he gave a bizzare response when asked about this yesterday...

Basically... the Aussies and the Canadians simply picked the most economically credible parties in the face of uncertain times. 

What? Those parties he's endorsing are both from the left.

That's the equivalent of kicking his sister parties (The Aussie Libs and Canadian Conservatives) in the shins.

Made no sense. I think he wanted to avoid mentioning the trump bump. 

What's actually happening here is not really about parties. 

In times of uncertainty, you don't change your horse mid-steam.

Voters stick with what they know. When the worlds in a spin, you don't know up from down, Albo from a-hole.... human nature, for the most part, is to do nothing and hope it goes away.

Why risk a new government of unknown quantity?

Singapore's arguably just done the same.

The counter factual to this obviously is America, but remember the American economy was actually growing for past two years, consumer spending was strong, and inflation had come down earlier than ours.

So that's a different set of circumstances. 

The best comparison for what's happened in Australia and Canada in the past week is 2020, New Zealand. 

A bunch of people really worried a perceived global threat rallying around flagpole and rejecting a campaign that wasn't neither well-run or nailing the public mood. 

Which Judith Collins' disastrous 2020 attempt didn't. 

Whether it was Trump, or a reaction to him.

For Luxon to attribute the fiscal credentials of left-wing parties abroad with their success was an unnecessary own goal. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
News Talk set B. It is twenty six minutes after five.
No doubt Donald Trump's brand is dicey at best at home,
but globally. In term one of Donald Trump, the world
watched on with a mix of kind of amusement and
feigned concern. Term two is very different. These results out
of Canada and Australia at the weekend show. The brand
is turned toxic, like a beef Wellington at a family

(00:23):
dinner party. We've all seen the host, the chef tucking in,
but we're thinking, hmm, do we want to do the same.
We can't get much closer in Stalin substance to Canada
and Australia when it comes to democracy. Both chained to
the Westminster system we inherited from Mother England, and both
of our cousins have turned on their political oppositions as
Trump up ends the global order to rub salt in

(00:46):
the wound. For both Polyev and Dutton, they lost their
seats as well as their elections. We spoke about this
on Friday, but what is the message here? Trump is toxic.
Pollier's problem was one of style. He sounded in campaigned
too much like Trump. The airport hangar with the branded
plane behind him the shots on the nightly news. People

(01:07):
didn't like that. Dutton's problem was more complicated. First, he
ran a crap campaign, realizing a defense force plan so
expensive it gets funding to three percent of GDP. I mean,
we can't take on Elbow's tax cuts and a cost
of living crisis, and then only releasing that plan two
weeks out from a campaign was done, But it was

(01:27):
also about the word economists are spitting out like a
bad stake at the moment, uncertainty. Don't ask Luxon, though
he gave a bizarre response when asked about this yesterday.
Have a listen.

Speaker 2 (01:39):
What you're seeing is in Singapore, Canada, Australia, the public
voting for governments that have their eyes on the right
things and the right things. For us is to make
sure we don't take our eyes off economic growth. That's
why if we say growth, growth, growth, we keep talking
economics and rebuilding the economy from day one.

Speaker 1 (01:55):
That's important. A weird thing to say. Basically, the Aussies
and the Canadian and simply picked the most economically credible
parties in the face of uncertain times. What those parties
he's endorsing are both from the left. That's the equivalent
of kicking his sister parties the Aussie lives in the
Canadian Conservatives right in the shins when they're down. It

(02:18):
made no sense. I think you wanted to avoid mentioning
the Trump bump. Maybe what's actually happening here is not
really about parties. In terms of uncertainty, you don't change
your horse. Mid Stream voters stick with what they know.
When the world is in a spin, you don't know
up from down. Human nature, for the most part is

(02:38):
to do nothing and hope it goes away. Why risk
a new government of unknown quantity. Singapore arguably just done
the same. The counterfactional, of course, is obviously America. But
remember the American economy was actually growing for the past
few years, consumer spending was strong, inflation had come down
earlier than ours. So that's a different set of circumstances

(03:00):
as to why they went for Trump. The best comparison
for what's happened in Australia and Canada in the past
week is twenty twenty New Zealand. A bunch of people
really worried about a perceived global threat, rallying around the
flagpole and rejecting a campaign that was neither well run
nor nailing the public mood, which Judith Collin's disastrous twenty
twenty attempt didn't whether it was Trump worry reaction to him.

(03:25):
For Luxeon to attribute the fiscal credentials of left wing
parties abroad with their success was an unnecessary own goal.
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