Alexey Muraviev: Curtin University associate professor on Ukraine agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia

A Ukraine ceasefire could be a while away yet, according to one expert.

Ukraine's agreed to a US-proposed 30-day ceasefire with Russia, after Washington and Kyiv officials held talks in Saudi Arabia today.

Curtin University associate professor, Alexey Muraviev, says the US would need to make some significant compromises for Russia to consider it.

He explained that's what it would take for Vladimir Putin to be able to sell the idea.

"If it's going to be just a case of showing goodwill - I think Putin would be damaging his own reputation in the eyes of the people he was trying to sell this war to." 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So the ballers in Russia's court this evening on the
ceasefire deal. The US has managed to get Ukraine to
the table. They've agreed to thirty days of no fighting.
Then hopefully they can start to have talks about actually
ending the war. This all goes to the Kremlin before
it goes anywhere else. Alexei Moravrev is with Curtain University.
He's the associate professor of National Security and Strategic Studies.

(00:21):
He's with me.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Good evening, good afternoon, and good Evenian to you.

Speaker 1 (00:26):
Thank you for being with us. Do you think Russia
will like this deal? Will they like and take the
terms for a thirty day seas?

Speaker 2 (00:34):
Fine? Well I don't think they do. They will, and
this is what they were trying to manifest of a
certain period of time and a number of foum seeing
they're not interested in the temporary ceisfire. That may provide
the Ukrainians an advantage in terms of recovering a regrouping Reginier,

(00:54):
eating their strength and then obviously regining their will to
fight on. The Russians are currently moving, they advancing. They
made significant progress in liberating the course C region and
emphasizing on the word liberation. Obviously it's different from what
the Russians are doing in Ukraine. And in this sense,

(01:17):
the Russians come into these talks from the position of
strength because one of the I mean, the problem that
we have in trying to understand this whole rapid change
concerning the conflict is we have been subjected to certain
types of narratives over the past three years, and certainly
one of the narratives that we're trying to battle ourselves

(01:38):
against is the fact that this is an unwinnable war.
And the Russians don't really see that this is an
unwiennable war. Yes, they're making very slow progress, but they're
grabbing territory, the inflicking damage on the military, and that's
why they have no interest in stopping it.

Speaker 1 (01:55):
So you think, Alexi, that the Russian people genuinely believe,
even though Poten said this is going to be a
couple of weeks of a war, here we are three
years later. They genuinely believe that they can actually win it.
And what does winning mean? Does that mean actually taking
over all of Ukraine.

Speaker 2 (02:10):
See this is where it also gets very interesting. We
continue to run with this narrative that for some reason
the Russians won the whole of Ukraine. It was never
stated in any of Russia's official communications or declarations. Then
they want the whole of Ukraine. They want Ukraine as
a buffer. That's certainly the endgame in terms of answering you.
And it doesn't mean that Russia wants to control the

(02:33):
whole of the country, which I don't think they want
or can.

Speaker 1 (02:37):
They just want some space. They want some space between
them and you want space.

Speaker 2 (02:41):
And they want and they want buffer between themselves and Nita.
And to answer your question about Russia's will to fight, initially,
yes they were. They were kind of very slow and
they didn't expect that it would be such a prolonged conflict.
But the Kremlin managed to weaponize their minds and military
rise them. So the Russians are currently feeling like they

(03:03):
don't want to stop. I think the greatest disappointment for
them if they would be given orders to hold the assault,
and that may actually cause more a backlash for Putting
than having some sort of negotiation.

Speaker 1 (03:14):
Alexi very quickly, because we are really tight on time here.
But just to give us an idea, what would it
take for Russia to go through the six Fire.

Speaker 2 (03:25):
If the United States would bring on the table some
significant concessions to the Russians, whether it's lifting of sanctions
or some sanctions or something else, then Putting would be
able to go back to his people and sell the
idea if it's going to be just you know, show
a case of goodwill. Well, I think Putting would actually
be damaging his own reputation in the eyes of the

(03:46):
people he was trying to sell this war too, including
the fact that Russia will fight until the end, until victory.
So without some sort of compromise on the US side,
I don't think it's going to be visible.

Speaker 1 (03:58):
Alix, I really appreciate you time. That's Alexei Moraviev. He's
with Curtain University Associate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies, saying, basically,
person needs something from the Americans to get the ceasefire
across the across the line. For more from Heather Duplessy
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