September 11, 2024 • 7 mins
Today's action-packed Presidential debate has wrapped, leaving many convinced it was a victory for Kamala Harris.
She and Donald Trump traversed a battlefield covering inflation, abortion and foreign policy.
The contrast between the two was clear - with Harris more future-focused, and Trump hailing back to his Presidency.
US historian Allan Lichtman says Harris's win was crystal clear.
"She was good, maybe very good. Trump was abysmal - he got baited by Harris time and time again."
Lichtman says Trump's off-the rails comment about migrants eating pets will stick in people's brains.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Prissing the newsmakers to get the real story.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
It's hither, dupless Ellen, drive with one New Zealand let's
get connected.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
You s told ZIDB.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
They're eating the dogs, the people that came in. They're
eating the cats, they're eating they're eating the pets.
Speaker 4 (00:27):
When we listen to this kind of rhetoric, when the
issues that affect the American people are not being addressed,
I think the choice is clear in this election.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
She wants to confiscate your guns and she will never
allow Frakin.
Speaker 4 (00:41):
In Pennsylvania, people start leaving his rallies early out of
exhaustion and boredom. And I will tell you the one
thing you will not hear him talk about is you.
Speaker 3 (00:50):
All I can say is I read where she was
not black.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
I'll say that, and then I read that you was black,
and that's okay.
Speaker 4 (00:58):
I intend to be a president for all Americans and
focus on what we can do over the next ten
and twenty years to build back up our country by
investing right now in you, the American people.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
What these people have done to our country and they're
destroying our country. The worst president, the worst vice president
in the history of our country.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
So Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are faced off in
their first presidential debate. Now, Alan Lickman is the name
many will know. He's correctly predicted almost every US election
outcome in four decades. He was watching the debate, Alan.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Hallow, Hello, so good to speak with you.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
It's very good to talk to you. Was there an
obvious winner there for you?
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Oh? I thought it was crystal clear that Harris was
the winner, not that she was so great. She was good,
maybe very good. Trump was abysmal. He got baited by
Harris time and time again to get off focus, talk
about crowdsized people leaving his crowd the Central Park five
(02:03):
and you know when he was really right in calling
for their execution. You know, his handlers had been constantly
telling him focus on the economy. Tell us, you know,
your plans for the economy wasn't there. And you know,
no matter what the question was, he went off and
off and on about immigration. You know, he was even asked,
(02:28):
you know, for nine years you said you're going to
come up with a healthcare plan concepts. How are you
going to end the Ukraine War? He didn't have an answer.
How are you going to deport eleven to twelve million
undocumented immigrants. It's not as if they all live in
communities with a big sign undocumented immigrants live here. They're
mingled in with the general population. You'd have to demand
(02:51):
proof from tens of millions of Americans. No answer to that.
And I think the one thing that people will remember
from Trump, because it was so off the rails, so insane,
is this idea of immigrants eating people's pets. People can
relate to that. You know, the details of policy can
(03:12):
go over people's heads, but people know just how nutty
and how crazy that was. And you know, Trump spoke,
had a lot more speaking time than Harris, but you
know it was it was rambling and off topic. He finally,
in the last few seconds of the debate made a
(03:32):
very strong point, and that is, all right, you've got
all these wonderful plans. Why haven't you implemented them in
the three and a half years you're in office? That
can't you know, in the eleventh hour and fifty ninth
minute of the debate, and you know, just got lost.
That would have been a very good theme instead of
all this off topic stuff for Trump to develop.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Mean, I thought, Ellen, you make some very good points
but do you think this is going to change anybody's vote.
If you love Kramel, you're going to stick with Camelon.
If you love Trump, You're going to stick with him,
aren't you.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
That's not true. First of all, I made my prediction
deliberately before this debate that Harris would be the first
women president of the United States because I did not
believe events of the campaign influence the outcome. And certainly
there was nothing about this debate that would shake the
(04:28):
prediction that before the debate, right, So in that sense
I thought it. You know, it was important that Harris
didn't have a complete meltdown, and far from it. You know,
the much more of a meltdown was by Trump.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Yeah, well, I think that was the point I was
trying to make. The debate is not really going to
change anyone's mind, is it. I want to ask you
though about your keys, Ellen, because this is particularly fascinating
this time around your third key of your thirteen, which
is about incumbency. You are considering Kamala Harris not the incumbent.
But this is a little bit tricky this time, right,
(05:06):
because she's not the incumbent, but she's tied to the incumbent,
isn't she Well.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
We've had vice presidents running before. George J. W. Bush,
Robert Reagan's vice president ran in nineteen eighty eight, Richard Nixon,
Dwight Eisenhower's vice president ran in nineteen sixty. They don't
get the key. The key is binary. The sitting president
is running is needed to turn that key in favor
(05:33):
of the incumbent. I don't freelance. I don't attempt to
second guess. If you're going to use my system, you've
got to stick to how the keys are defined and
not try to put your own gloss on them. If
you want to do that, develop your own system. I
welcome it.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Ellen. Also, am I reading this right? But you do
not consider either of these two to be charismatic.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
That's correct. And again, don't get hung up on the word.
You've got to read my book Predicting the Next President,
which I carefully define the meaning, and that is to
win this key if you're the incumbent, or to turn
it against the incumbent of the challenger, you have to
be one of those once in a generation inspirational, transformational candidate.
(06:24):
Across party lines, the iconic examples are Franklin Roosevelt and
Ronald Reagan. What if you may think of Harris, He's
not a Franklin Roosevelt. Now we know Trump is a showman,
but he doesn't fit the definition of the key because
he only appeals to a narrow base. Unlike Reagan or FDR,
who won six elections and landslides, Trump lost the popular
(06:47):
vote in two elections combined by ten million votes, and
his approval rating in four years as president was forty
one percent, right at the bottom historically of all presidents.
So appealing to a narrow however much you do so,
does not fit the definition of the key.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Alan, it's good to talk to you, really respect you work.
Thank you so much. It's Alan Lickman, us historian who
is predicted, as I said earlier, almost every single US
election correctly in the last four decades.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
For more from hither Duples see Alan Drive.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Listen live to news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
Prissing the newsmakers to get the real story.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
It's hither, dupless Ellen, drive with one New Zealand let's
get connected.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
You s told ZIDB.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
They're eating the dogs, the people that came in. They're
eating the cats, they're eating they're eating the pets.
Speaker 4 (00:27):
When we listen to this kind of rhetoric, when the
issues that affect the American people are not being addressed,
I think the choice is clear in this election.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
She wants to confiscate your guns and she will never
allow Frakin.
Speaker 4 (00:41):
In Pennsylvania, people start leaving his rallies early out of
exhaustion and boredom. And I will tell you the one
thing you will not hear him talk about is you.
Speaker 3 (00:50):
All I can say is I read where she was
not black.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
I'll say that, and then I read that you was black,
and that's okay.
Speaker 4 (00:58):
I intend to be a president for all Americans and
focus on what we can do over the next ten
and twenty years to build back up our country by
investing right now in you, the American people.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
What these people have done to our country and they're
destroying our country. The worst president, the worst vice president
in the history of our country.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
So Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are faced off in
their first presidential debate. Now, Alan Lickman is the name
many will know. He's correctly predicted almost every US election
outcome in four decades. He was watching the debate, Alan.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Hallow, Hello, so good to speak with you.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
It's very good to talk to you. Was there an
obvious winner there for you?
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Oh? I thought it was crystal clear that Harris was
the winner, not that she was so great. She was good,
maybe very good. Trump was abysmal. He got baited by
Harris time and time again to get off focus, talk
about crowdsized people leaving his crowd the Central Park five
(02:03):
and you know when he was really right in calling
for their execution. You know, his handlers had been constantly
telling him focus on the economy. Tell us, you know,
your plans for the economy wasn't there. And you know,
no matter what the question was, he went off and
off and on about immigration. You know, he was even asked,
(02:28):
you know, for nine years you said you're going to
come up with a healthcare plan concepts. How are you
going to end the Ukraine War? He didn't have an answer.
How are you going to deport eleven to twelve million
undocumented immigrants. It's not as if they all live in
communities with a big sign undocumented immigrants live here. They're
mingled in with the general population. You'd have to demand
(02:51):
proof from tens of millions of Americans. No answer to that.
And I think the one thing that people will remember
from Trump, because it was so off the rails, so insane,
is this idea of immigrants eating people's pets. People can
relate to that. You know, the details of policy can
(03:12):
go over people's heads, but people know just how nutty
and how crazy that was. And you know, Trump spoke,
had a lot more speaking time than Harris, but you
know it was it was rambling and off topic. He finally,
in the last few seconds of the debate made a
(03:32):
very strong point, and that is, all right, you've got
all these wonderful plans. Why haven't you implemented them in
the three and a half years you're in office? That
can't you know, in the eleventh hour and fifty ninth
minute of the debate, and you know, just got lost.
That would have been a very good theme instead of
all this off topic stuff for Trump to develop.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Mean, I thought, Ellen, you make some very good points
but do you think this is going to change anybody's vote.
If you love Kramel, you're going to stick with Camelon.
If you love Trump, You're going to stick with him,
aren't you.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
That's not true. First of all, I made my prediction
deliberately before this debate that Harris would be the first
women president of the United States because I did not
believe events of the campaign influence the outcome. And certainly
there was nothing about this debate that would shake the
(04:28):
prediction that before the debate, right, So in that sense
I thought it. You know, it was important that Harris
didn't have a complete meltdown, and far from it. You know,
the much more of a meltdown was by Trump.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Yeah, well, I think that was the point I was
trying to make. The debate is not really going to
change anyone's mind, is it. I want to ask you
though about your keys, Ellen, because this is particularly fascinating
this time around your third key of your thirteen, which
is about incumbency. You are considering Kamala Harris not the incumbent.
But this is a little bit tricky this time, right,
(05:06):
because she's not the incumbent, but she's tied to the incumbent,
isn't she Well.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
We've had vice presidents running before. George J. W. Bush,
Robert Reagan's vice president ran in nineteen eighty eight, Richard Nixon,
Dwight Eisenhower's vice president ran in nineteen sixty. They don't
get the key. The key is binary. The sitting president
is running is needed to turn that key in favor
(05:33):
of the incumbent. I don't freelance. I don't attempt to
second guess. If you're going to use my system, you've
got to stick to how the keys are defined and
not try to put your own gloss on them. If
you want to do that, develop your own system. I
welcome it.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Ellen. Also, am I reading this right? But you do
not consider either of these two to be charismatic.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
That's correct. And again, don't get hung up on the word.
You've got to read my book Predicting the Next President,
which I carefully define the meaning, and that is to
win this key if you're the incumbent, or to turn
it against the incumbent of the challenger, you have to
be one of those once in a generation inspirational, transformational candidate.
(06:24):
Across party lines, the iconic examples are Franklin Roosevelt and
Ronald Reagan. What if you may think of Harris, He's
not a Franklin Roosevelt. Now we know Trump is a showman,
but he doesn't fit the definition of the key because
he only appeals to a narrow base. Unlike Reagan or FDR,
who won six elections and landslides, Trump lost the popular
(06:47):
vote in two elections combined by ten million votes, and
his approval rating in four years as president was forty
one percent, right at the bottom historically of all presidents.
So appealing to a narrow however much you do so,
does not fit the definition of the key.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Alan, it's good to talk to you, really respect you work.
Thank you so much. It's Alan Lickman, us historian who
is predicted, as I said earlier, almost every single US
election correctly in the last four decades.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
For more from hither Duples see Alan Drive.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Listen live to news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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