National could have a waiting game, as a new political poll predicts a hung Parliament.
The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll gives the left and right blocs 61 seats each.
It also has Labour overtaking National.
Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says Luxon has refused to weigh in on this matter - and aims to focus on the economy.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Very Soper, senior political correspondence with US how Barring good afternoon, Heather,
what do you make of that opinion poll?
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Well, what have made of all the opinion polls of late?
Actually they're not that dissimilar. That not looking too good
for National this one they won't be very happy with it.
But you know, the Prime Minister has been criticized for
not commenting on opinion polls. I think he's wise not to.
I mean, he says, why should he be talking about himself?
Speaker 3 (00:25):
He should be.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Talking about things that are a bit more important, and
that's the economy. And I think he's quite right.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
There no point talking about the economy. You need to
do something.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Well, you could say that, Heather. I'm sure you will
be saying that as well.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
But this Curier poll is interesting. It sees are hung parliament,
sixty one.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Seats for each block.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
But there's a TV and ZED pole coming out at
six o'clock as well. And my bit is, and I'll
bet you a good bottle of wine that the TV
and ZED Pole will be more sympathetic to the National
Party and we'll see are seen to write government quite company.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
That it's still quite tight.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
Back it'll be tight.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
But you know, if you want Chloe Swarbrick as the
finance minister in the next government, I think the public
should reflect on that because she says it won't be
a Labor lead government anyway, it'll be a Greens lead
government and that's from their conference at the weekend. Ye.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
So you know, if you want a benefit for life,
then vote the no Labor block.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
I take your point right. It's not as if the
other side are shining lights, right, They're still the same
crew who put us in the show with the economy.
But do you not think that national and the reputation's
attached to what's going on here? Lux and Willis at
l shouldn't Do you not think that they should be
worried about what's going on in the polling because people
clearly aren't very stoked with what they're doing. O.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
No, of course people aren't that stoked, because when you've
got an economy like we had in two thousand. At
the end of two thousand and three, it takes more
than ten minutes to turn that economy around.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
What have they done?
Speaker 3 (01:52):
I've had eighteen months?
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Well, you know there's a number of things such as well, oh,
for goodness, sake, you know, we've got more to talk about.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
I'm challenging because I'm challenging everybody who's fanboys to tell
me what that done.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
I'm not a fanboy of anybody. What I'm just saying
is if you look at opinion polls through the ages,
and if you look nineteen eighty seven, for example, the
opinion polls have got to say then, though, were much
better for the Longing led Labor government, even though the
public suffered greatly during the eighty four to eighty seven period,
and they simply went to the eighty seven election after
(02:27):
the Snap's election in nineteen eighty four saying let us
finish the business now. The public then were of a mind,
even though they were hurting greatly as much as they
are now at the moment, they voted Labor back in.
And I'm sure that you will see next year this
government will be voted back because I think things will
(02:47):
be looking better.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
She start cutting it last year. They are cutting it fine.
But can I just to your comparison there, So what
you're saying is nineteen eighty four to eighty seven, like now,
very hard time economically, that government doing a lot getting
r warded in the polls. This government not getting rewarded
in the polls, maybe for not doing a lot. So
is it possible actually that even if voters are hurting,
they will still support you if they can see you're
(03:09):
doing something that's well true that and I think that's
the problem.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
The difficult Yes, no, that is true.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
But the difficulty here is they haven't got a lot
to play with in terms of money. Even though they
are borrowing quite heavily. They can't you know, they can't
willy nilly borrow like.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Three years before that.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
They shouldn't be spending. That's the problem. They should be
cutting anyway, Listen, we need to move on. What do
you think of this business or the state of Palestine.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
Well, you know, we're not having a barb each way
where if you listen to Winston Peters. We're considering it
very carefully. But he's always said that the final recognition
will come. It's only a matter of if not when
or when not if that it will come. But there
are a few preconditions on that and that's what the
(03:57):
Cabinet will be considering before Winston Peters, interestingly, is going
to deliver the Leader's Address at the UN General Assembly
in September and we'll outline our position in detail then.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
At his post cabinet news conference today, Chris Luckson said
there are conditions on the recognition of Palestine as a state.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
Though we're not going to recognize the state that has
Harmas in it. There is no role for Harmas in
any future Palestinian state. And you know, I think you've
seen that from a number of the leaders that have
changed their positions on recognition or accelerated their positions on recognition.
So for us, you know, that's an absolute non starter.
Our view very clearly is Hamas started this, you know,
October seventh with twelve hundred Jewish folk. Are innocent civilians killed,
(04:39):
hostages that have been held over a long period of time.
They need to release the hostages. Is as simple as that.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
And we're not alone in that.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Of course, a number of countries that will say, will
have said they're going to recognize Palestine, but that'll be
one of the preconditions, no doubt about it.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
Just really quickly, do you reckon the Greens that are
in trouble in Wellington with this redefinition of the boundaries here?
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Well, absolutely, if you look at Wellington Central, which is
Tamoth the pool's electorate. That's really it's going to be
called Wellington North. So Central is going to go and
they are going to Wellington North. Is going to take
in areas where she would have a big difficulty in
winning the electorate, Kendala, wades Down and Nio, the more
(05:22):
wealthy areas. Wrong Atie also extends to Brooklyn and Mount Cork,
which is interesting. And that's don't forget juliaan Genter. Both
these women tamotha Paul and Julia and Genter. They're more
upset though, that about the name of the elect wrong
Ata is going to go, and Juliane says, no, we
weren't like wrong attire. It means the sound of the sea. Well,
(05:45):
it might be the sounds of the Greens heading out
the door at Parliament to the next.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
J see Tamoth Paul's launched a petition.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
I had to change the name, keep the.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Names, but only the Marty names. Doesn't care about anything else.
Thank you very much, Barry, appreciate it, Barry so Pacing
political correspondent. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen
live to News Talks it B from four pm weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
Very Soper, senior political correspondence with US how Barring good afternoon, Heather,
what do you make of that opinion poll?
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Well, what have made of all the opinion polls of late?
Actually they're not that dissimilar. That not looking too good
for National this one they won't be very happy with it.
But you know, the Prime Minister has been criticized for
not commenting on opinion polls. I think he's wise not to.
I mean, he says, why should he be talking about himself?
Speaker 3 (00:25):
He should be.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Talking about things that are a bit more important, and
that's the economy. And I think he's quite right.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
There no point talking about the economy. You need to
do something.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Well, you could say that, Heather. I'm sure you will
be saying that as well.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
But this Curier poll is interesting. It sees are hung parliament,
sixty one.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Seats for each block.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
But there's a TV and ZED pole coming out at
six o'clock as well. And my bit is, and I'll
bet you a good bottle of wine that the TV
and ZED Pole will be more sympathetic to the National
Party and we'll see are seen to write government quite company.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
That it's still quite tight.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
Back it'll be tight.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
But you know, if you want Chloe Swarbrick as the
finance minister in the next government, I think the public
should reflect on that because she says it won't be
a Labor lead government anyway, it'll be a Greens lead
government and that's from their conference at the weekend. Ye.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
So you know, if you want a benefit for life,
then vote the no Labor block.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
I take your point right. It's not as if the
other side are shining lights, right, They're still the same
crew who put us in the show with the economy.
But do you not think that national and the reputation's
attached to what's going on here? Lux and Willis at
l shouldn't Do you not think that they should be
worried about what's going on in the polling because people
clearly aren't very stoked with what they're doing. O.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
No, of course people aren't that stoked, because when you've
got an economy like we had in two thousand. At
the end of two thousand and three, it takes more
than ten minutes to turn that economy around.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
What have they done?
Speaker 3 (01:52):
I've had eighteen months?
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Well, you know there's a number of things such as well, oh,
for goodness, sake, you know, we've got more to talk about.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
I'm challenging because I'm challenging everybody who's fanboys to tell
me what that done.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
I'm not a fanboy of anybody. What I'm just saying
is if you look at opinion polls through the ages,
and if you look nineteen eighty seven, for example, the
opinion polls have got to say then, though, were much
better for the Longing led Labor government, even though the
public suffered greatly during the eighty four to eighty seven period,
and they simply went to the eighty seven election after
(02:27):
the Snap's election in nineteen eighty four saying let us
finish the business now. The public then were of a mind,
even though they were hurting greatly as much as they
are now at the moment, they voted Labor back in.
And I'm sure that you will see next year this
government will be voted back because I think things will
(02:47):
be looking better.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
She start cutting it last year. They are cutting it fine.
But can I just to your comparison there, So what
you're saying is nineteen eighty four to eighty seven, like now,
very hard time economically, that government doing a lot getting
r warded in the polls. This government not getting rewarded
in the polls, maybe for not doing a lot. So
is it possible actually that even if voters are hurting,
they will still support you if they can see you're
(03:09):
doing something that's well true that and I think that's
the problem.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
The difficult Yes, no, that is true.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
But the difficulty here is they haven't got a lot
to play with in terms of money. Even though they
are borrowing quite heavily. They can't you know, they can't
willy nilly borrow like.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Three years before that.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
They shouldn't be spending. That's the problem. They should be
cutting anyway, Listen, we need to move on. What do
you think of this business or the state of Palestine.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
Well, you know, we're not having a barb each way
where if you listen to Winston Peters. We're considering it
very carefully. But he's always said that the final recognition
will come. It's only a matter of if not when
or when not if that it will come. But there
are a few preconditions on that and that's what the
(03:57):
Cabinet will be considering before Winston Peters, interestingly, is going
to deliver the Leader's Address at the UN General Assembly
in September and we'll outline our position in detail then.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
At his post cabinet news conference today, Chris Luckson said
there are conditions on the recognition of Palestine as a state.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
Though we're not going to recognize the state that has
Harmas in it. There is no role for Harmas in
any future Palestinian state. And you know, I think you've
seen that from a number of the leaders that have
changed their positions on recognition or accelerated their positions on recognition.
So for us, you know, that's an absolute non starter.
Our view very clearly is Hamas started this, you know,
October seventh with twelve hundred Jewish folk. Are innocent civilians killed,
(04:39):
hostages that have been held over a long period of time.
They need to release the hostages. Is as simple as that.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
And we're not alone in that.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Of course, a number of countries that will say, will
have said they're going to recognize Palestine, but that'll be
one of the preconditions, no doubt about it.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
Just really quickly, do you reckon the Greens that are
in trouble in Wellington with this redefinition of the boundaries here?
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Well, absolutely, if you look at Wellington Central, which is
Tamoth the pool's electorate. That's really it's going to be
called Wellington North. So Central is going to go and
they are going to Wellington North. Is going to take
in areas where she would have a big difficulty in
winning the electorate, Kendala, wades Down and Nio, the more
(05:22):
wealthy areas. Wrong Atie also extends to Brooklyn and Mount Cork,
which is interesting. And that's don't forget juliaan Genter. Both
these women tamotha Paul and Julia and Genter. They're more
upset though, that about the name of the elect wrong
Ata is going to go, and Juliane says, no, we
weren't like wrong attire. It means the sound of the sea. Well,
(05:45):
it might be the sounds of the Greens heading out
the door at Parliament to the next.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
J see Tamoth Paul's launched a petition.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
I had to change the name, keep the.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Names, but only the Marty names. Doesn't care about anything else.
Thank you very much, Barry, appreciate it, Barry so Pacing
political correspondent. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen
live to News Talks it B from four pm weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
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