October 8, 2025 • 4 mins
There's claims a rebounding economy could propel National to another election win.
But a former senior National staffer also says next year's election is looking like a toss-up.
The recent Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll has the party on just 29.6 percent - one of its lowest results since returning to Government.
Ben Thomas says that's not a good place to be.
"That is a psychological threshold - we used to be thinking that anything in the middle-low 30s was a disaster for a National Party leader."
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We're going to get Ben Ben Thomas is not answering
the phone to talk about the pole. If you know
Ben Thomas, can you get Ben Thomas to because it's
not a surprise, not a surprise really and at all.
If you could get Ben Thomas to answer the phone,
that'll be fantastic. In the meantime, I'm going to run
you through the results of the pole if you haven't
already heard it. This is the Taxpayer Union Curier poll.
Nats are, unfortunately, for the first time in the two's
twenty nine points six down three and a half points.
(00:22):
New Zealand First has gained a lot of that. They're
up to and a half points. They're sitting it close
to eleven acts, down ever so slightly just under seven.
Labor is now the biggest party on thirty one, Green's
are on twelve, Malordi parties on four and a half.
Former National Party staffer Ben Thomas has answered the phone
and is with us. Hello, Ben Chiota here, What are
you putting this down to? Is this just reacting to
the GDP shock.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Well, I don't think it's the GDP shock, you know,
in terms of the release of a statistic. I think
it's just the continuation of really tough economic times that
there hasn't been a lot of let up for voters
since this government came into power two years ago.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
Does this if you believe that, then do you think
it turns around when the economy picks up.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
I mean, you would have to expect that there would
be some kind of bump, you know, when touching would
we're going to say when the economy picks up. You know, Look,
there is a problem in the sense that I guess
the National Party leadership, which is the part of the
government that's most identified with the economy for its reasons,
(01:27):
the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister have been sort
of almost doing the opposite of the chicken little thing, saying,
you know, the economy is recovering, the economies are recovering.
People have not tended to see it happening, and so
that kind of erodes credibility and leadership and reputations for
economic management and those sorts of things that you see
(01:48):
at other surveys and polls and so, Look, I think
it does have, you know, a long term wearing effect
probably as well. But I think that once the economy
starts going, things would have to start looking up for
the government.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
Do you think Luxon's in trouble on these numbers?
Speaker 2 (02:05):
Look, as a prime minister, you wouldn't want to see
many polls where your party was in the twenties, you know,
even just barely dipping under. Now, you know that is
a sort of psychological threshold.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
Well, because also been I mean Simon Bridges, not a
prime minister, but the leader. Simon Bridges was rolled on
twenty nine.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
Simon Bridges I think was rolled on thirty nine twenty.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Nine on the One News Colma Brunton Pole.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
Oh was it okay? Yeah, I mean we used to
be sort of you know, thinking that anything in the
you know, in the middle low thirties was a disaster
for a National Party leader. Look, the thing is that
at this point, although the prend is certainly going against
the government and the National Party in particular, when you
(02:54):
look at the raw numbers, when you look at the
likely election results, it's still very much a toss up.
You would say, this upside coming when if the economic
recovery really kicks in, and so there is a lot
of risk if you were going to change a leader,
you know, if you were starting from scratch, if there
was a terrible accident that wiped out the entire caucus
(03:16):
or something like that, you know, would Christopher Luxen be
the person that you would choose. Probably not at this point.
On the other hand, there's a lot of risk attendant.
You know, you might get just Cinder Dun, you might
get Todd Muller. It is hard to tell how people
will perform in those roles or how the public will
perceive sort of you know, the perception of instability. And
(03:38):
so right now you see and it's not just National
Labor as well. It's hardly performing at historic or heroic eyes.
They're in the low low thirties, and so it's almost
a bit of a race to the bottom. But again
same issue, probably a fifty to fifty chance if an
election was held yet tomorrow, that they would in that
(04:00):
form of government. And so it's it's almost what you know,
if you're a physicist, you could call a very very
non dynamic equilibrium where the risks could be you are
perceived to probably outweigh the upside of any kind of
big change or gamble.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
Ben thank you, has always appreciate it. Ben Thomas, former
National Party staff. But by the way, here is Chris Luxen.
It's been, no doubt about it. At a tough time,
New Zealanders voted me and our government to fix the
economy and.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
Get it growing. Work incredibly hard to do it.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
I don't deny it's been difficult and it's still tough, Heather.
Remember John Keith. This is just on the Reserve Bank.
Remember John Key got pilloried because he said the Reserve
Bank should drop the rate by one percent. Yeah, we
all looked at that and went, oh that's bold. Well
I think actually since then they have dropped the rate
by as you said, one percent.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news Talks.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.
We're going to get Ben Ben Thomas is not answering
the phone to talk about the pole. If you know
Ben Thomas, can you get Ben Thomas to because it's
not a surprise, not a surprise really and at all.
If you could get Ben Thomas to answer the phone,
that'll be fantastic. In the meantime, I'm going to run
you through the results of the pole if you haven't
already heard it. This is the Taxpayer Union Curier poll.
Nats are, unfortunately, for the first time in the two's
twenty nine points six down three and a half points.
(00:22):
New Zealand First has gained a lot of that. They're
up to and a half points. They're sitting it close
to eleven acts, down ever so slightly just under seven.
Labor is now the biggest party on thirty one, Green's
are on twelve, Malordi parties on four and a half.
Former National Party staffer Ben Thomas has answered the phone
and is with us. Hello, Ben Chiota here, What are
you putting this down to? Is this just reacting to
the GDP shock.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Well, I don't think it's the GDP shock, you know,
in terms of the release of a statistic. I think
it's just the continuation of really tough economic times that
there hasn't been a lot of let up for voters
since this government came into power two years ago.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
Does this if you believe that, then do you think
it turns around when the economy picks up.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
I mean, you would have to expect that there would
be some kind of bump, you know, when touching would
we're going to say when the economy picks up. You know, Look,
there is a problem in the sense that I guess
the National Party leadership, which is the part of the
government that's most identified with the economy for its reasons,
(01:27):
the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister have been sort
of almost doing the opposite of the chicken little thing, saying,
you know, the economy is recovering, the economies are recovering.
People have not tended to see it happening, and so
that kind of erodes credibility and leadership and reputations for
economic management and those sorts of things that you see
(01:48):
at other surveys and polls and so, Look, I think
it does have, you know, a long term wearing effect
probably as well. But I think that once the economy
starts going, things would have to start looking up for
the government.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
Do you think Luxon's in trouble on these numbers?
Speaker 2 (02:05):
Look, as a prime minister, you wouldn't want to see
many polls where your party was in the twenties, you know,
even just barely dipping under. Now, you know that is
a sort of psychological threshold.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
Well, because also been I mean Simon Bridges, not a
prime minister, but the leader. Simon Bridges was rolled on
twenty nine.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
Simon Bridges I think was rolled on thirty nine twenty.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Nine on the One News Colma Brunton Pole.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
Oh was it okay? Yeah, I mean we used to
be sort of you know, thinking that anything in the
you know, in the middle low thirties was a disaster
for a National Party leader. Look, the thing is that
at this point, although the prend is certainly going against
the government and the National Party in particular, when you
(02:54):
look at the raw numbers, when you look at the
likely election results, it's still very much a toss up.
You would say, this upside coming when if the economic
recovery really kicks in, and so there is a lot
of risk if you were going to change a leader,
you know, if you were starting from scratch, if there
was a terrible accident that wiped out the entire caucus
(03:16):
or something like that, you know, would Christopher Luxen be
the person that you would choose. Probably not at this point.
On the other hand, there's a lot of risk attendant.
You know, you might get just Cinder Dun, you might
get Todd Muller. It is hard to tell how people
will perform in those roles or how the public will
perceive sort of you know, the perception of instability. And
(03:38):
so right now you see and it's not just National
Labor as well. It's hardly performing at historic or heroic eyes.
They're in the low low thirties, and so it's almost
a bit of a race to the bottom. But again
same issue, probably a fifty to fifty chance if an
election was held yet tomorrow, that they would in that
(04:00):
form of government. And so it's it's almost what you know,
if you're a physicist, you could call a very very
non dynamic equilibrium where the risks could be you are
perceived to probably outweigh the upside of any kind of
big change or gamble.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
Ben thank you, has always appreciate it. Ben Thomas, former
National Party staff. But by the way, here is Chris Luxen.
It's been, no doubt about it. At a tough time,
New Zealanders voted me and our government to fix the
economy and.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
Get it growing. Work incredibly hard to do it.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
I don't deny it's been difficult and it's still tough, Heather.
Remember John Keith. This is just on the Reserve Bank.
Remember John Key got pilloried because he said the Reserve
Bank should drop the rate by one percent. Yeah, we
all looked at that and went, oh that's bold. Well
I think actually since then they have dropped the rate
by as you said, one percent.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news Talks.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.
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