Brad Olsen: Infometrics principal economist on employment confidence dropping in latest report

Kiwis’ confidence in the job market took a dive over the past three months, according to a survey conducted for Westpac.

The bank reported its confidence index, which measures responses to five questions related to employment prospects, fell by 13 points to 91.4 in the June quarter.

Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen explains why less people are feeling optimistic.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The confidence of the job market has taken a big
hit over the past three months. West Pax Employment Confidence
survey dropped thirteen points overall. Information Principal economist Brad Olsen
is with us on this evening to your Brad, good evening.
What does this actually measure? Is this measuring people in
work worried about staying in work or changing jobs? Or
does it measure does it does it measure people trying
to find work?

Speaker 2 (00:20):
Well, sort of measures a range of people. I mean
parts of what you've just outlined, and they're in terms
of sort of what people have work and you know,
also what they're thinking about for the future. Sort of
goes through it surveyed a bunch of people because I
think this is probably the important thing. It gives us
an idea once you break it down in terms of
current job opportunity. So sort of you know what I

(00:41):
feel like there are at the moment when they've been
going around either because they're looking for work, because they
don't have a job, or because they've got a job.
You know, they're casting around for other opportunities, but also
things like expected job opportunity, So you know, what are
they hearing and seeing out there when they're talking to recruiters,
is it looking up or down? What is earnings and
what's your job security? And that's actually a bit of

(01:01):
a big one as well, that has turned negative. It
was positive last quarterback, at the start of this year,
it was slightly positive. It's now negative, which suggests that
more people than not are going, actually, I'm worried that
I'm going to lose a job, you know, I'm not
sort of confident I'm still going to have that pay.
So all of those numbers continuing to decline that you
know that I think they've said it's the worse since

(01:23):
twenty twenty, but if you go back even further than that,
and probably a better comparison, because it looks like it's
about on par it's not slightly worse than the worst
part of the sort of deirc play. So we are
seeing people that are increasingly going, look, it's difficult to
find a job. I'm not confident I will keep my
current job. That's a bad sign for the labor market.

Speaker 1 (01:42):
Clearly, Hell, Brad, do we explain the fact that in
the private sector it took a bigger knock for confidence
than it did in the public sector When the public
sector is losing all of these jobs.

Speaker 2 (01:53):
Well, You've got a wonder if part of that is
because the parting sector probably knew of those challenges a lot. So.
I mean, if you look at some of those sort
of figures that have come through, it possibly suggests there
was a bit of preemption from the public sector sort
of workers going look wet of we could see this
coming from a little bit of a mile away. It's
also though, being seen in job add numbers that have

(02:16):
been published over the last week or so from the
like SUC seats. You know, those employment figures and expectations
around job numbers continue to be worse. It was interesting.
I've been out and presenting and potty to it today
talking to their business months and then you know, the
biggest question there was all around the public service cuts
that have come through, and I think the challenge is
that they still haven't actually fully hit yet they you know,

(02:37):
there's still those restructurings that are going on, and it
probably won't be until September maybe the end of this
year before we've got a full and final picture of
what that looks like.

Speaker 1 (02:46):
Brad. It's so good to talk to you mate, Thank
you very much. Appreciated as Brad Olson Infametrix Principle Economist.
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