Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on the latest employment numbers for September 2024

The latest employment numbers for September 2024 show the job market is still in a tough spot.

Annual filled jobs were down 0.9 percent compared to this time last year.

Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen says this is a tricky point for the economy - and things aren't expected to get better until mid-2025.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
With us now is Brad Awson in the Metrics Principal Economists, Hey, Brad,
good evening. Well, so the job market's tough, isn't it
It is, and we've continued to get further numbers that
suggest how tough it is. The latest figures for September
showing there are twenty nearly twenty one thousand fewer jobs
in the New Zealand economy in September twenty twenty four
compared to a year ago. You know, that's a pretty

(00:21):
tough hit. And also most about half of those job
losses coming through in Auckland, with around ten five hundred
odd jobs fewer in the largest city than a year before.
Those hits very much coming through. We've seen now no
jobs growth at all since about March this year, and
in fact we've either seen declines or things remaining flat,

(00:44):
so really continuing to add the pressure there when households
are of course trying to find jobs to pay for
life as it goes round, but fewer and fewer job
opportunities coming up. Brad. What sectors are being hit? Yeah,
the biggest hit so far in terms of sectors has
been construction, around about just over ten thousand fewer jobs

(01:04):
in construction than a year ago. But then after construction
sort of smattering across the board, around seven thousand fewer
jobs and admin and support services and that includes labor,
higher and temporary roles. You've got six thousand odd fewer
roles across accommodation and food services. Again, we're not traveling
as much across the country and doing domestic travel, and

(01:25):
so that's taken a hit. Manufacturings down around five thousand,
professional services down nearly three thy eight hundred in retail
as well, So there's quite a lot of areas that
have very much been hit. Interestingly, and I think encouragingly,
the healthcare sector is the one area that has seen
some pre sustained jobs growth. Over ten thousand more jobs

(01:47):
in healthcare than a year ago, so that area really
holding us up. And so when do we expect to
hit five percent unemployment? Well, we'll have the numbers out
next Wednesday, which we expect at the moment will show
that five percent unemployment rate, and we think it will
then continue to increase just a bit more over the
next couple of quarters. We think that the unemployment rate

(02:07):
now is going to peak at around five point four
percent around mid next year, and it's just in their
awful period now. Heither we're between now and sort of
mid next year. As people are slowly but surely moving
off their higher fixed income mortgages through to those lower rates,
you'll start to get more and more people that are
still going to be losing their jobs until there is

(02:29):
more support, there's more stimulus coming into the economy. So
we're in a very tough, very tricky period for the
economy at the moment. Good stuff, Brad, Thanks so much, appreciated.
Brad Awsome, Infometric principle Economist. For more from Heather Duplessy
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