Recent data shows there were 27,850 fewer jobs in New Zealand in June compared to the year before, and young Kiwis are being hit hard by a tightening labour market.
Over 12,000 of those lost jobs came from the construction sector, manufacturing lost 5850 jobs, professional, scientific and technical services lost 5150 jobs and admin and support services lost 4860 jobs.
Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen explains what's behind this change.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now there were almost twenty eight thousand fewer jobs in
June compared to last June. More than twelve thousand of
those lost jobs came from the construction sector, almost six
thousand were manufacturing jobs. Education and primary industries added jobs.
Brad Olsen as INFA Metrics Principal Economists, Hey, Brad, good evening. Look,
I mean, you know, lost jobs has lost jobs, and
it's never great. But is this as bad as expected
(00:20):
or is it worse or not and not as bad?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Well, I mean, look, it's certainly challenging when the economy
has lost twenty eight thousand rolls over the last year,
But in fairness, we've sort of already known that for
quite a few months. You look back at what we've
seen over the last couple and job numbers have been
down at this level or if not even worse of
an annual decline. That's not to say that things are
easy at the moment, but we have been seeing on
(00:46):
a more month to month basis that job numbers in
New Zealand have broadly been tracking sideways, some months up,
some months down, but really no real trend. And I
think that's probably the wider concern. We know that there's
been a big job drop in jobs, but people are
now looking and going well. Surely now that we're starting
to see some of those the economic rev up that's
being talked about, where are the jobs, we're starting to
(01:07):
see that growth yet and unfortunately, so far, there's just
not really any evidence. In the month of June a
very slight zero point one percent increase in the seasonally
adjusted monthly figures, but really no real trend in so far.
There's just no evidence that we're seeing a pick up
quite yet. Have we reached the bottom though, I think
we probably have, or you'd certainly hope so, over the
(01:29):
next couple of months at least, I don't think it
would start to deteriorate all that much. Further, we're still
expecting that the likes of the unemployment rate will peak
ever so slightly higher than where it was at the
start of this year around five point three percent over
the next couple of months. But interestingly, you're starting to
see in some areas actually a bit of growth. For
the likes of the South Island job numbers are now
(01:51):
up ever so slightly on where they were a year ago.
It's just that North Island job figures are down quite heavily,
and so I think that does start to high like that. Yes,
there are some areas that are starting to see a
slow pick up the primary sector. Are you seeing some
more jobs coming through in the likes of finance, health, education,
But other big job losses, like in construction and manufacturing,
(02:13):
professional professional services, none of those picking up anytime soon.
And I think that's the challenge, is that some of
those big areas that normally do take on a lot
of jobs just no real new opportunities starting to show through.
So tough out there still for many.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Yeah, totally. I mean construction we obviously expected to pick
up again, but manufacturing do you ever expect it to
pick up or have we kind of have we got
to the point now where most of the stuff that
we've lost will never be replaced.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
Look, I think in some areas businesses will of course
have been looking at you know, buying capital, you know,
plant and equipment, machinery to try and do some of
those roles into the future, so potentially there's not quite
as much upturn. But also in some of those more
niche sort of advanced manufacturing areas, Yes, I think New
Zealand's got some opportunity there. It's actually probably the other
way round of construction. I'm not sure if those numbers
(03:02):
necessarily pick up all that heavily. Yes, the government's doing
more infrastructure investment and similar but we're not about to
crash interest rates down to a level that would stimulate
the highest building since the nineteen seventies. That's where we
were a couple of years ago. That's why we've had
such a job loss because we added so many before.
Long story short, we're just trying to find that goldilock
zone for the economy at the moment, and that is
a very very tough process when you're seeing these numbers
(03:24):
of job losses coming through.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
Fair enough, Now, Brad, did I see you on the
news as being in China?
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Indeed? Indeed, I am, Is this a holiday?
Speaker 1 (03:34):
I mean, what am I asking?
Speaker 2 (03:35):
You?
Speaker 1 (03:35):
Never take a holiday? So what work related thing are
you doing in China?
Speaker 2 (03:39):
It's a holiday of sorts hither, I mean, I'm just
sort of here trying to see what the economy's doing it.
Of course, China is our largest trading partner and there's
some pretty big opportunity, so having a bit of a
look around anything from you know, what's happening with consumer
trends and the fact that there's just so many new
products all of a sudden, you know, coming out sort
of every second week. Lots of new drinks and beverages,
cheesy options and similar emerging. I mean, we talk a
(04:02):
lot about butter and New Zealand at the moment that
over in China they're paying a lot more for what
we're sending over so it's good to see a healthy
export market occurring.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
To what's the coolest thing you see? What's the coolest
new product you've seen?
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Oh, I'm trying to think. I mean, there have been
some recent collabs where you know, your classic cheese slice,
well now they've eddited in a few extra flavors into them,
you know, to sort of meet the market over here.
I think there's something like spicy crayfish tomato, and there
was one other I've forgotten. But it's neat because you're
seeing sort of product innovation right in front of you.
(04:37):
New Zealand we're sort of on the bleeding edge of
taking those new opportunities, you know, figuring out what local
customers want and then sort of churning them out or
working with partners to put out the good stuff. It's
been quite exciting just to see everything. I mean, everything
moves so fast here. The tech and innovation is just hectic.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Good stuff. Brad Hey, thanks very much and safe travels back.
That's brad owsoon Infametric's principle economist. For more from Heather
Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to News Talks it B
from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
Now there were almost twenty eight thousand fewer jobs in
June compared to last June. More than twelve thousand of
those lost jobs came from the construction sector, almost six
thousand were manufacturing jobs. Education and primary industries added jobs.
Brad Olsen as INFA Metrics Principal Economists, Hey, Brad, good evening. Look,
I mean, you know, lost jobs has lost jobs, and
it's never great. But is this as bad as expected
(00:20):
or is it worse or not and not as bad?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Well, I mean, look, it's certainly challenging when the economy
has lost twenty eight thousand rolls over the last year,
But in fairness, we've sort of already known that for
quite a few months. You look back at what we've
seen over the last couple and job numbers have been
down at this level or if not even worse of
an annual decline. That's not to say that things are
easy at the moment, but we have been seeing on
(00:46):
a more month to month basis that job numbers in
New Zealand have broadly been tracking sideways, some months up,
some months down, but really no real trend. And I
think that's probably the wider concern. We know that there's
been a big job drop in jobs, but people are
now looking and going well. Surely now that we're starting
to see some of those the economic rev up that's
being talked about, where are the jobs, we're starting to
(01:07):
see that growth yet and unfortunately, so far, there's just
not really any evidence. In the month of June a
very slight zero point one percent increase in the seasonally
adjusted monthly figures, but really no real trend in so far.
There's just no evidence that we're seeing a pick up
quite yet. Have we reached the bottom though, I think
we probably have, or you'd certainly hope so, over the
(01:29):
next couple of months at least, I don't think it
would start to deteriorate all that much. Further, we're still
expecting that the likes of the unemployment rate will peak
ever so slightly higher than where it was at the
start of this year around five point three percent over
the next couple of months. But interestingly, you're starting to
see in some areas actually a bit of growth. For
the likes of the South Island job numbers are now
(01:51):
up ever so slightly on where they were a year ago.
It's just that North Island job figures are down quite heavily,
and so I think that does start to high like that. Yes,
there are some areas that are starting to see a
slow pick up the primary sector. Are you seeing some
more jobs coming through in the likes of finance, health, education,
But other big job losses, like in construction and manufacturing,
(02:13):
professional professional services, none of those picking up anytime soon.
And I think that's the challenge, is that some of
those big areas that normally do take on a lot
of jobs just no real new opportunities starting to show through.
So tough out there still for many.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Yeah, totally. I mean construction we obviously expected to pick
up again, but manufacturing do you ever expect it to
pick up or have we kind of have we got
to the point now where most of the stuff that
we've lost will never be replaced.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
Look, I think in some areas businesses will of course
have been looking at you know, buying capital, you know,
plant and equipment, machinery to try and do some of
those roles into the future, so potentially there's not quite
as much upturn. But also in some of those more
niche sort of advanced manufacturing areas, Yes, I think New
Zealand's got some opportunity there. It's actually probably the other
way round of construction. I'm not sure if those numbers
(03:02):
necessarily pick up all that heavily. Yes, the government's doing
more infrastructure investment and similar but we're not about to
crash interest rates down to a level that would stimulate
the highest building since the nineteen seventies. That's where we
were a couple of years ago. That's why we've had
such a job loss because we added so many before.
Long story short, we're just trying to find that goldilock
zone for the economy at the moment, and that is
a very very tough process when you're seeing these numbers
(03:24):
of job losses coming through.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
Fair enough, Now, Brad, did I see you on the
news as being in China?
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Indeed? Indeed, I am, Is this a holiday?
Speaker 1 (03:34):
I mean, what am I asking?
Speaker 2 (03:35):
You?
Speaker 1 (03:35):
Never take a holiday? So what work related thing are
you doing in China?
Speaker 2 (03:39):
It's a holiday of sorts hither, I mean, I'm just
sort of here trying to see what the economy's doing it.
Of course, China is our largest trading partner and there's
some pretty big opportunity, so having a bit of a
look around anything from you know, what's happening with consumer
trends and the fact that there's just so many new
products all of a sudden, you know, coming out sort
of every second week. Lots of new drinks and beverages,
cheesy options and similar emerging. I mean, we talk a
(04:02):
lot about butter and New Zealand at the moment that
over in China they're paying a lot more for what
we're sending over so it's good to see a healthy
export market occurring.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
To what's the coolest thing you see? What's the coolest
new product you've seen?
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Oh, I'm trying to think. I mean, there have been
some recent collabs where you know, your classic cheese slice,
well now they've eddited in a few extra flavors into them,
you know, to sort of meet the market over here.
I think there's something like spicy crayfish tomato, and there
was one other I've forgotten. But it's neat because you're
seeing sort of product innovation right in front of you.
(04:37):
New Zealand we're sort of on the bleeding edge of
taking those new opportunities, you know, figuring out what local
customers want and then sort of churning them out or
working with partners to put out the good stuff. It's
been quite exciting just to see everything. I mean, everything
moves so fast here. The tech and innovation is just hectic.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Good stuff. Brad Hey, thanks very much and safe travels back.
That's brad owsoon Infametric's principle economist. For more from Heather
Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to News Talks it B
from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
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