Dr Finn Illsley Kemp: Victoria University senior research fellow assesses the odds of a volcanic eruption impacting Auckland

One expert has warned Aucklanders should be prepared for the chance of a volcanic eruption.

Civil Defence estimates there's a 10 percent risk it could happen in the next 50 years. 

It could cost $65 billion in building damage alone. 

Victoria University's Dr Finn Illsley Kemp says we'd get a decent warning before an eruption - but every aspect will be expensive, including evacuating the city.

"We do think we'll get a warning when it is on the way, because this magma has to come from quite deep - we should be able to see it when it's on its' way, but when it's on the move, it doesn't hang around."

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Right now, though, get a load of this Auckland. There's
a ten percent chance of a volcanic eruption in Auckland
in the next fifty years.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
Now.

Speaker 1 (00:07):
This is according to disaster scenarios drawn up by emergency management,
and the potential cost of this does if she blows
is sixty five billion dollars now. Doctor Finn Ilsley Kemp
is a senior research fellow at Victoria University specializing in
earthquakes and volcanoes. Is with us now, hoy Finn, Hey,
I mean ten percent in the real world is not
a lot. But what about when we're dealing with scenarios

(00:29):
like this, is it?

Speaker 2 (00:31):
Well, ten percent is still very unlikely, and there is
still quite a lot of uncertainty about that number. The
way we've got that number is by looking at the
eruptions that have happened in the past in Auckland and
looking at the date, like how old they were, and
then getting a kind of average of roughly how often
these things have happened, and we think roughly we get
about one eruption every five hundred years.

Speaker 1 (00:52):
Okay, so I can probably relax like it's not going
to happen while I'm alive. Chances are right.

Speaker 2 (00:59):
Well, it's unlike, but there will be an eruption from
Auckland at some point in the future. So it is worthwhile,
you know, considering it and preparing it, and especially for
emergency management, getting prepared for that scenario.

Speaker 1 (01:11):
And how do you prepare for a volcanic eruption.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
It's difficult, and it's especially difficult in Auckland, it has
to be said in Auckland well, because the volcanic field,
the Auckland volcanic field, basically sits under the entire city.
And what's difficult about the volcanic field in Auckland is
that it seems to be relatively random where in that

(01:38):
area the eruption comes up. It's not like we are
pay who where the eruptions are coming from the same
place all the time, and so that makes it very
hard to predict for the future. But even still, when
we do think we will get a warning when it
is on the way, because this magma has to come
from quite deep and so we should be able to

(01:58):
see it on its way. But when it's on the moon,
if it doesn't hang around, it's probably going to take
maybe days to weeks to get from deep up to
the surface to interruption, so it's quite ahead of time.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
No, there's heaps of time we can get out of
the city. So we'll have at least days worth of warning.

Speaker 2 (02:15):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, we will' that's I mean, I like
your optimism. I it's a big challenge to evacuate the
entire city of Auckland in days.

Speaker 1 (02:28):
You see public holiday weekends. We can get out of
here real quick.

Speaker 2 (02:32):
Yeah, maybe everyone can go up north.

Speaker 1 (02:34):
Yeah, now, okay, listen, if it was to happen because
producer ants who fancies himself as something of a scientist,
like a pseudo scientist, like a like a part time scientist,
he reckons it blows at the softest part in the ground,
So that would be out at sea, would it.

Speaker 2 (02:49):
No, we don't see particular evidence for that. There seems
to be basically random. The only thing we can kind
of say is they don't seem to erupt from the
same place more than once most often, So where there
is currently a cone, we can say it's unlikely to
come from that exact spot. But really we just have
to cast the net wide and say it could come

(03:10):
basically anywhere under the entire city.

Speaker 1 (03:12):
Finn doesn't make a new cone. So will it come
from a flat piece and suddenly we'll have a cone there?

Speaker 2 (03:17):
Yeah, probably that's what we think.

Speaker 1 (03:18):
And so there's no I mean, you can't give me
a piece of advice as to like if it's happening
here north or south. It's but random, isn't it?

Speaker 2 (03:28):
It will be random. And what's difficult is that as
it's coming up, we'll probably see earthquakes. That will be
the sign that we can see the magma on the move.
But then it doesn't necessarily come straight up. It can
kind of move around in the crust a bit. Okay,
and so really we would take the approach of evacuating
everyone to be safe.

Speaker 1 (03:47):
Okay, Hey, thanks for that. Fin, that's fascinating. That's doctor
Finillesley kimp Seeing, a research fellow, Victoria University School of Geography.
How good is it? We'll get a few days warning,
decide where you want to. You might just be able
to fly out, Just fly out. Someone can put like Fiji,
I'm gonna I'm just gonna hunk it down and feed
you while that's happening.

Speaker 2 (04:03):
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