Full Show Podcast: 09 April 2025

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Digging through the spin spence to find the real story.
Or it's Ryan Bridge on hither duplicy Ellen Drive with
one New Zealand. Let's get connected.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
And news talks. They'd be good.

Speaker 3 (00:13):
Afternoon Wednesday, the ninth of April, is just gone seven
after four the ocr how low will they go post
Trump tariffs? Will ask that question after five wool is
in synthetics are out according to the government. We'll speak
to a key we exported from the Naki who's got
product on the water right now getting to the United States.
He's been negotiating with his buyers to pass on that

(00:34):
ten percent. We'll find out whether he's managed to do it.
Plus throw away your tesla's, your iconics and your leafs.
Evs are apparently driving up carbon emissions, which is not
what they're supposed to do.

Speaker 4 (00:46):
Right.

Speaker 3 (00:46):
We'll have that story for you later in.

Speaker 2 (00:48):
The show, Ryan Bridge.

Speaker 3 (00:50):
So the Reserve Bank did the predictable thing today and
cut twenty five basis points. Good news for mortgage holders,
good news for the economy. More money in our pockets
and more money to spend. It's not going to change
the world. It's a quarter of a percent on a
wholesale rate, and a wholesale rate is only a portion
of the bank's rate, and the bank's rate only matters

(01:10):
if you haven't already fixed, and as a five minutes ago,
the banks haven't budged on fixed rates, only on floating.
The bank's swap rates are probably more important here and
at the moment. We'll get more on that later in
the program, but for now, it is the general direction
of rates that we like the sound of. This is good.
Loosening lowering, the direction of travel, to steal a term

(01:31):
from decinder Adern is good. Our disposable income is going
up great. But of course the question then becomes, will
we actually spend it. Are we now so worried about
trigger happy Trump and as tariffs that we don't go
and get the new couch, or we don't upgrade the car,
not that it should be a tesla or an iconic anyway,

(01:52):
or maybe we don't go and get the kids back
into ballet class because the subs were too expensive during
the cost of living crisis. The answer to that question
is at this point we actually just don't know, because
we haven't had any confidence surveys for the past week.
But if Trump doesn't start doing deals soon, then my
bet is people will start pulling back a bit, maybe
not all the way, but enough to slow an economic

(02:15):
recovery down. Just talk to your friends and your family
and ask them how they're feeling about things at the moment.
So there's reason to be wary, but one mustn't be
ungrateful when inflation is beat the government's talking about growth
a budget surplus rather than more borrowing. You've got to
take the winds when you get them, no matter how small,

(02:35):
teeny tiny they may be.

Speaker 2 (02:38):
Brian Bridgeley nine.

Speaker 3 (02:40):
Minutes after four. So Benjamin Doyle has been at Parliament
explaining themselves over the bussy question. The Instagram posts you
will know all about this. Here's what they had to say.

Speaker 5 (02:52):
The words I used in my private account historically were
not sexual words. They were nicknames and references to myself.
Recognize that a lot of people won't know the word bussy,
and so they'll be hearing about it for the first
time now, and that some people don't use or like
it or have a particular definition. Every time I have
ever used that term, it has been a reference to

(03:13):
me and my nickname. It's a nickname or like a
drag persona. It's a caricature of myself.

Speaker 3 (03:22):
So that's the reasoning, the rationale. Take from that what
you will, and I'm assuming both sides of this will
take from that what they will. Ten minutes after four,
now we're going to a story with a headline that
probably doesn't get much worse. I don't think this is
a One News story from last night. National MP Hamish
Campbell is part of a secretive religious group that's being

(03:44):
investigated for alleged child abuse here and abroad. The group
is no official name, but has been called the two
by Twos and the Truth. Hamish told One News in
this story that he's got no knowledge of any abuse.

Speaker 6 (03:58):
Look, I think kind of for any accusations, I I
think the best place for that is the police.

Speaker 3 (04:04):
Peter Linen was in the story. He's a massive university
religious expert with us this afternoon.

Speaker 7 (04:07):
Hi Peter, how are you going round?

Speaker 8 (04:10):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (04:10):
Good?

Speaker 3 (04:11):
Thank you? How did you you obviously saw that piece
last night? How did you think? Because to put someone's
name in there, and you know, in the headline with
child abuse, it's pretty pretty serious stuff. I mean, are
you confident that there's enough information around this to be
doing that.

Speaker 9 (04:28):
I think there's probably a misunderstanding in the way that
the one story seemed to stack up. Yes, Hamish Campbell
is a member. It would appear of the two x
two's or whatever we will call them. Every book I've
got on the subject, and I've got seven books named
them with.

Speaker 10 (04:47):
A different name. So it's a bit hard to be sure.

Speaker 9 (04:50):
But you see, the abuse is by specific people, which
is alleged against them. In the church, they had these too,
They had these missionaries who go out in pairs and
they're usually almost always single males, one older and one younger,

(05:10):
and there have been allegations that some of the missionaries
have been involved in abuse. And the only aspect that
is concerning for people in the group is this that
because it's so secretive, it's sort of created, and because

(05:31):
the two by two preachers, the go preachers are held
in such respect that probably an abused person's story would
not be believed. And I think that's what's been happening.
That's certainly true of the FBI stories.

Speaker 3 (05:46):
Right, So it's not I mean, to your knowledge, there's nothing.
You would just ask questions about this particular group rather
than about this national imp themselves. So you're you're talking
about the group itself. We know, so are they definitely
being investigated by police? Are they here in New Zealand?

Speaker 9 (06:05):
Specific there have been specific complaints against specific people, some
of them are historic. I believe at least one of
them is dead. So it's going back. The group's been
around in New Zealand, remember, for more than a hundred years,
and people have because it's now become an atmosphere after

(06:25):
the Royal Commission where you can talk about sex abuse
for the first time, they come forward with their stories
and that's been just what has made the police very interested.
There are other issues, of course with the group. I
mean I've met various survivors of the group. Some came

(06:46):
out pretty well, some came out spectacularly well. There was
some very well known names in bold with the group
at times.

Speaker 10 (06:55):
But some have.

Speaker 9 (06:58):
Struggled with suicide, with other traumas in their life and
have just had their lives ended up a wreck. It's
very hard to escape from a closed group like this.

Speaker 3 (07:11):
Interesting, Peter, I appreciate your time, Thanks very much for
coming on the program. Peter Linehum who's massive university religious expert.
It's just gone on four fourteen pray and bridge, because
you know what the thing is, There'll be people listening
to this who'll go, well, why is it that the
media does a hit job on this guy, on the
National MP, Hamish Campbell, and you're willing to put the words,
you know, the National MP's name and child abuse in

(07:33):
the same sentence. How come you're so quick and keen
to do that, but you won't do the same with
Benjamin Doyle. There'll be people who will think that and
do you know what, I don't know what the answer
to that question is. I don't know what. I don't
know how to explain that, because clearly no one has
made any allegations against the National MP Hamish Campbell, other

(07:55):
than that he's part of a religion which many people
are part of religions many people have. I mean, what
so everyone who goes to Scouts and there's every time
there's a Scout leader, you know what I mean? Are
you gonna then do a story about them? I don't
know the numbers. Texts just gone call to past four.
Darcy is here with sport.

Speaker 1 (08:13):
Next, it's the Heather du Bussy allan Drive full show
podcast on iHeartRadio powered by News TALKSB.

Speaker 3 (08:22):
News Talks B. It is a four to seventeen, Darcy
said with sport Hey, Darcy, Hey, Ryan, Good afternoon now
Dr John Mayhew has passed away.

Speaker 11 (08:30):
Yeah, sad, sad news. Doctor John Doc Mayhew O n
z M passed away this afternoon surrounded by loved ones.
This is difficult for people in the in the rugby community.
He's been around so long with rugby. He was the
first guy who was the doctor for North Harbor Rugby.

(08:53):
It's a life member of North Harbor Rugby. That's looking
way back when. Of course he went on to be
the All Black doctor for one hundred and thirty one tests.
I think it was so there. Spent a lot of
time around the All Blacks, which suggests he's not only
very good at what he did, he's also a really
nice guy and people wanted to be around him. My
personal experience of doctor John mayheel he spoke to him

(09:14):
a couple of weeks ago, and I think everybody when
they are faced with the death of somebody they know,
they immediately.

Speaker 12 (09:24):
Like, I like.

Speaker 3 (09:25):
But I was just talking to him.

Speaker 11 (09:27):
Heart problems there. But he was always wonderful to talk to,
super super friendly, really knowledgeable. I think the legacy who
leave is not the fact that it was an all black
doctor nor harbored doctor. As he was so hot on
concussion and concussion protocols that was really really important to him.
The way the world develops and treats head injuries, how

(09:49):
serious they take it, what methods have to be used
to mitigate the problems with head injuries. So his career
is super super sad.

Speaker 3 (10:00):
Hey Channel nine over in Australia. That's signed and you
deal with Rugby Australia and if the Aussie teams win
then nine will pay Rugby Australia more money.

Speaker 11 (10:08):
Well there's extra money, which I think is an interesting
idea because they're saying that the Australian teams win some
Super Rugby camps and you know the Wallabies win some
big competitions. Well, are they going to do that? A
safe bet? Do you think the Aussie team is going
to win Super Rugby? But if after all they've made

(10:28):
a whole lot more money.

Speaker 13 (10:29):
A significant thing out of this.

Speaker 11 (10:31):
It doesn't include the twenty seven World Cup, but Nine
are currently negotiating with that. So it's Wallaby's Wallaroos and
Super Rugby fixtious and men's and women's competition. It comes
on nine and the sub screening service stands Sport. There's
no longer free to air rugby once they take this

(10:53):
over in Australia, which I think is allowing for a
lot of people there. But yeah, do they say the
deal's worth according to people and they know they're going
to bank an extra sixty five million bucks in this deal?
Would say one hundred and fifteen million dollars in cash
and kind advertising?

Speaker 4 (11:10):
The likers good?

Speaker 3 (11:11):
How many people would you have watching? How many rugby
fans in Australia versus New Zealand because it's obviously not
as popular there as it is here, But in terms
of total fan numbers do you reckon that way?

Speaker 11 (11:22):
It's gone art because Jack Mesley, who is the CEO
of Super I, goes on with Mike Asking this morning
talking about the increase in eyeballs and apparently it's gone.

Speaker 9 (11:31):
Up thirty percent here in Australia.

Speaker 3 (11:35):
It's up here as well. I think here, yeah, but
people are more interested.

Speaker 11 (11:39):
They've made a lot of changes to try and make
the game more conserinable fan at the scene of the room,
you've heard it all before it's working. People are actually going,
you know what, this is a good product and they're
buying into it.

Speaker 3 (11:49):
So it's straight news across the board.

Speaker 11 (11:51):
Look and Mark Robinson joins us tonight the CEO of
Insida are just to reflect in my life of times
of Dr John.

Speaker 3 (11:58):
May nice one I see with at seven tonight you're
on news Talks. There be four to twenty one. Very
soaph has been listening into all the presses. We've had
a few this afternoon and Barbara Edmonds said some nutty
things today. We'll get to here in a second as well.
News Talks THEVB.

Speaker 1 (12:13):
Getting the facts discarding the fluff. It's Ryan Bridge on
Heather Dubiss Ellen Drive with one New Zealand let's get connected.

Speaker 2 (12:22):
News talks.

Speaker 3 (12:22):
There be good afternoon. It is four twenty four. So
here's the Finance Minister Nicola Willis responding to the OCR
announcement today, so that if you're just joining us, it
is good news. It's done twenty five basis points. No,
it's not going to change the world, but it's heading
in the right direction.

Speaker 14 (12:36):
Here she is they are observing the global situation carefully
and that there is more room to move to reduce
interest rates if need be. That's appropriate, because what that
means is that should the economy require stimulus, the Reserve
Bank is positioned to provide it by lowering interest rates
and therefore generating economic activity.

Speaker 3 (12:58):
So good news unless you're Barb from Labor Barbara Edmonds.
She fires off a press release. It only took her
like a couple of seconds, and then out it goes
press release. That's pretty scathing of Nicola Willis, So I'll
just read a couple of lines from it. Nikola Willis
continues to sit on her hands amid a global economic crisis.

(13:19):
Well are we there yet? I'm not quite sure that
we're quite there yet, but anyway, leaving the Reserve Bank
to act for New Zealanders who are worried about their
jobs and mortgages. Quote. While the Reserve Bank is doing
its job to cushion the blow of a global economic downturn,
Nicola Willis continues to pretend like everything's fine. A couple
of things. Firstly, no, they are not cushioning the blow

(13:40):
of an economic downturn. They are containing inflation. And once
inflation job is done, then it's their job to bring
the rate to a neutral one, which is what they're doing.
Second thing, Nicola Willis said yesterday everything is not fine.
I mean she did it in a calm voice, which
is politics, but she said everything is not fine. Another
one here, another line from this press release. If she
wanted to show real leadership, this is Barb's on Nikola.

(14:03):
If she wanted to show real leadership, she would invest
in jobs, health, homes and adapt when New Zealand's economy
needs it. And there it is, ladies and gentlemen. There
it is Labor's not so secret weapon spending. When crisis comes,
you will find Bob down at your local shopping more
handing out envelopes full of cash Willie Nelly to anybody

(14:25):
who asks for them, who cares? If it's really good
quality spending, Just take the money. Just take the money.
Can't get it out the door fast enough. That's the
problem with Labor. And I would have thought, and we
all know this because they did it the last time
we had a crisis. Remember, So, I would have thought
someone would have proofread this release before Barb's hit sen
But apparently not. She's on the show after six.

Speaker 2 (14:46):
Ryan Bridge has.

Speaker 3 (14:47):
Gone twenty six after four now four PM, so that
means twenty six minutes ago, well twenty five minutes ago,
because it was technically four h one pm our time
the tariffs were enacted. The tariffs came into four so
ten percent for US, for the EU and one hundred
and four percent for poor old China. Dan Mitchison has
all the details of this after news and we will

(15:09):
speak to one of our exporters who's sending product over
there as we speak. News Talk set B.

Speaker 15 (15:16):
Person Were Person, were Person Mazie.

Speaker 1 (15:34):
Putting the challenging questions to the people at the heart
of the story. It's Ryan Bridge on hither do for
c Allen drive with one New Zealand let's get connected.
News Talk set Bin good to forget me.

Speaker 3 (15:53):
A twenty five away from five year ow News Talk SIB.
Last night we heard from Stephen Always about well he
hopes that there'll be some leads little fixed to what
Trump is doing with the tariffs, and we've had a
look into that today. I'll get to that a little
later in the program. Plus, we're going to talk about evs.
Are they actually as good for the environment as you
think they are? If you're driving around listening to this

(16:14):
and your tesla and whatever Kona feeling a bit smug,
feeling a little bit self righteous. Well, we're going to
bring you back down to earth with some studies from
the University of Aukland and a Chinese university. Today. Right
now it is we'll get to Dan Mitson out of
the US in just a second, twenty five to two.

Speaker 2 (16:31):
It's the world wires on news talks. He'd be drive.

Speaker 3 (16:35):
Chinese imports to the US now face a one hundred
and four percent tariff rate. It has happened. Trump says,
the tariffs themselves working quite well as a negotiating tool.

Speaker 16 (16:46):
We have a lot of countries coming in. They want
to make deals. If I told them about making those
deals two years ago, or three years ago or five
years ago, they'd be laughing at as Now they're all
shining up.

Speaker 3 (16:58):
So Peter Duttin lost last night's leader's debate across the
Tasman In Australia, but the oppositions bounce back pretty quickly.
They've announced a new gas plan that they say will
lower household energy bills by three percent. Here's the Shadow
Energy Minister.

Speaker 17 (17:11):
Australians in their homes might use gas for cooking, might
use gas for heating. It will flow through to all
of us who go to a shopping center and by
fruit and veg because the farmers use gas at least
the fertilizer.

Speaker 3 (17:27):
Finally, this afternoon, a dog has made an epic thousand
mile trek from Utah to Texas. An animal shelter in
Collins County picked up Huey the dog and was shocked
when they found out his ownly lived on a thousand
miles away and had been searching for Huey for two weeks.
The Collins County community has crowdfunded more than three thousand
dollars to pay for Huey's trip home. We set to

(17:49):
depart this week.

Speaker 1 (17:50):
International correspondence with Ens and Eye Insurance Peace of Mind
for New Zealand Business.

Speaker 3 (17:56):
Dan Mitchison's our US correspondent, Dan. Welcome.

Speaker 10 (18:01):
Well, Hey Ryan, good afternoon.

Speaker 3 (18:02):
Good afternoon. So let's talk about Trump. He's given a
speech to Republicans at a dinner. I saw him in
his tucks a short time ago. What's he been saying
about this new tariff rate.

Speaker 12 (18:13):
Well, he's saying it's working and as you mentioned, it
has just gone into effect with China about forty minutes ago.
And I'm looking at the markets right now here in
the US to see how they're reacting. In the Dow
and the Nasdaq not good, down about two and a
half percent or so. And I mean we've wiped out
several trillion dollars in the market, at least the value
of stocks since this Liberation Day was first announced. Right now,

(18:36):
we've got reciprocal tariffs that are going into effect or
that are in effect in fifty or sixty other countries.
I know with New Zealand it's going to be about
ten percent right now. And I think China's Commerce Ministry
has said they're going to just fight this out to
the end of the trade war, and they're going to
continue to stand up to Trump. So we're going to
see what's going to go back and forth. I think

(18:56):
between the two countries, tit for tat or if they
can come to some kind of reasonable negotiation.

Speaker 3 (19:02):
Can Congress do anything about it. We're going to look
at this a little later on the show, but I mean,
in short, they can, but then he can veto whatever
they do, right.

Speaker 2 (19:11):
Well, he can.

Speaker 12 (19:12):
I mean, you've got right now, you've got about a
half dozen maybe more Republicans that are trying to sign
on to this bill that would restrict what the White
House could could do. Ultimately, they would like to see
these tariffs expire after forty days. There was a rumor
going around with the stock market yesterday and on the
floor of the Stock exchange that the President was going
to back off on the tariffs for ninety days. The

(19:32):
White House called that fake news. But even that announcement,
even though it wasn't true, I mean, made the market
shot up by about a thousand points before it came
back down again. So I think anything that we see
is going to be long term manufacturing. This isn't going
to happen overnight. I mean, businesses are going to take
a wait and see attitude to find out how these
negotiations are going to continue, because they can't just build

(19:54):
a new plant in thirty sixty or ninety days. These
things take years to to formulate.

Speaker 3 (19:58):
Now, finally, Judges orted, I pay the associated appreciated be
given access back to the White House. Does that mean
it's going to happen? Well, I don't know.

Speaker 12 (20:07):
It's it's it's interesting because an AP reporter photographer will
turned back from joining the reporting pool this evening just
a couple of hours after this judge made this decision,
and this is because the White House was angry that
the AP refused to call the Gulf of Mexico by
President Trump's preferred name, which is the Gulf of America.
And you know, the government and the judge of this

(20:27):
has said, you know what, the AP was not demanding
extra special access, and the judge agreed with this. They
were saying in the trial that what it wants and
all it gets out of this ruling is a level
playing field, which seems fair enough. And you know, Trump
and his aides have barred the reporters from dozens of
these events since back in February right now, and the
AP's you know, kind of been one of the main

(20:48):
news gatherers and resources for pool coverage over here for
more than a century now, So it's it was a
big win for them, all.

Speaker 3 (20:55):
Right, Dan, thanks for talking to us. I appreciate your time.
Dan Mitchison, US correspondent. It is twenty away from five.
So this study that I mentioned, the University of Auckland
and Shalman University in China, they've published a study in
the journal Energy Today and they've found that globally and
this is talking about the whole world. EV adoption has

(21:15):
actually increased carbon emissions. How they used data from twenty
six countries over fifteen years. They found the surprising trend
that higher EV update was linked to increased carbon emissions.
And a number of countries evs are still powered by
electricity that's generated from burning fossil fuels like coal or oil.
So basically what they're saying is you would be better

(21:35):
off if you live in one of these countries. You
would be better off buying a fuel efficient carbon emitting car,
you know, diesel petrol than you would plugging into the
wall and having coal burnt to feed your car's battery.
And when it comes to New Zealand, it's an interesting

(21:56):
question because they say, oh, well it's different. I'm sure
they will say it's a different for New Zealand because
eighty percent renewables. Well, the eighty percent renewables, as far
as I understand, it refers to our generation of our electricity,
not our use. So if the use is well anywhere
less than fifty percent, surely you would run into problems
similar problems. Anyway, we'll talk about that after five o'clock

(22:19):
just gone nineteen away from five. Now Barry next politics
with centrics credit, check your customers and get payments, certainty
news talks. There'd be just gone sixteen away from five
Barry soapers here with politics. Hey Barry, good afternoon. Right,
So we've got a couple of politicians in hot Water
of sorts today and both speaking.

Speaker 13 (22:37):
Yes, Hamish Campbell, who's the Island mp ilm MP. He
took over from Jerry Brownly. You know, he's a part
of a sect called I think it's called the twos
or something two by two two by two, And I
mean he was brought up clearly in this sect and

(22:58):
it's an association more than cultivated covered set by the
sound of things, but they do have meetings in their houses,
and you know, to suggest that he has something to
do with what they're being investigated for that some sexual offenses,
you would, you know, talk about drawing a long bow.

(23:20):
I mean, I was brought up a Roman Catholic, for
goodness sake, and you know there's plenty of transgressions in
that church. And to say that because I belonged to
the church that somehow was involved in that, I think
is stretching the bow far too far and that's what's happened,
I think in this case. Moving on to Benjamin Doyhle,

(23:40):
he of course goes by those pronouns they and them.
He's fronted up at Parliament today he said that he
in fact was naive. He was told by the Greens
to take down the posts that have caused defense, but
he chose not to and said the term bussy, which

(24:01):
has been made a lot of meaning a man's or
not a man's an anus, He said it was a
a basic was never said in a sexual context when
it came to him. It was simply a nickname that
he had. So they have just fronted up to the
media and they gave their view of how they've been
treated here they are.

Speaker 5 (24:21):
I knew coming to Parliament that I would face prejudice
and homophobia. I knew that people would not like the
way I dress or speak, or the causes that I
advocate for. I knew that I would be under scrutiny,
as is appropriate for every single person that has the
privilege of this position. That I could never imagine or
prepare myself to be attacked in such a baseless, personal

(24:46):
and violent way that my life and that of my
child would be threatened that poisonous transphobic hate, an imported
culture was would be leveled against me and my community.

Speaker 13 (25:00):
Threats can't be countenanced anywhere. But I'm sorry. I think
he's been the author of his own misfortune by his naivety.

Speaker 3 (25:07):
Yes, naivity maybe. But are these two cases not similar?
And that you've got got insinuations, haven't you of untoward
things and young people? You've got two MP's and you've
actually got no hard evidence either on either case. No, not,
so are we what are we doing here?

Speaker 18 (25:25):
Well?

Speaker 13 (25:25):
You know this is the way politics are sort of,
you know, it's the press gallery chasing these people.

Speaker 3 (25:33):
All right, let's move on then, something more important. Wool
and they're having their day in the sun today.

Speaker 13 (25:38):
Yes, indeed, they most certainly is, and the wool growers
will be very happy about it. From July one, Government
agencies and there are one hundred and thirty of them,
they'll be required to refurbish with wool. Now standing in
for the Minister of Agriculture, Nicola Gregg clearly got more
than she asked for and extalling the virtues of wall

(26:00):
in Parliament this afternoon.

Speaker 6 (26:01):
Last year, the sector contributed a half a billion dollars
to the economy, and this policy will help create jobs,
drive economic growth in our rural communities and encourage innovation
in our building material industry. And I note missed to
speaker how much you very much enjoy that the walls
of your office are currently covered.

Speaker 19 (26:20):
In wooltin supplement.

Speaker 15 (26:23):
You expected that one.

Speaker 3 (26:31):
Goodness, perhaps she needs them clean now the Greens tom
of the pool. She's come out swinging, hasn't she?

Speaker 13 (26:38):
What you know that this pole that came out and
it doesn't turn up any surprises at all. Of course,
most people feel safe when they see the police, and
forty eight percent of Green voters indeed said that they
feel safe for the bigger presence of police. In Wonnington Central,
of course, where she's the MP, sixty six percent and

(27:00):
felt more safe with the police on the beat. And
in Auckland, and this is Chloe Swarbrick's electorate sixty two
percent said that they felt more safe. So safety, the
safety felt by an overwhelming majority of Keywis you'd think
would be enough for the Green MP Timothapaul to zip
it on that front, but she doubled down. In Parliament.

Speaker 20 (27:22):
It is held by a rural maldi who have been
surveilled and tormented and terrorized and raided by the New
Zealand police force.

Speaker 15 (27:32):
It is held by people.

Speaker 20 (27:33):
Who grew up in neglected and poverished communities who live
under the constant suspicion and surveillance of the New Zealand Police.
And it is shared by women who go to the
police with complaints of domestic and sexual violence, who are
not believed and not taken seriously until it is too late.

(27:54):
That is not a minority, a group of people that
as a group of people I am proud to represent,
and I don't care if I'm the only person in
this house with the balls to represent those communities.

Speaker 13 (28:05):
Interesting, but look on the crackdown on gangs, those little
puppies removing their patches in the face and the like.
She doesn't rest well with her.

Speaker 20 (28:17):
Rather, the intentional, relational, methodical work that the police were
doing in communities alongside gang leaders. They have decided to
throw that out and say to police officers, We're not
going to increase your pay, but we will make you
be at war with people within your communities.

Speaker 13 (28:35):
Poor little puppies.

Speaker 3 (28:38):
The greens where the girls have balls apparently, well.

Speaker 13 (28:45):
Maybe she's non binary.

Speaker 2 (28:46):
I'm not sure.

Speaker 3 (28:47):
Maybe I don't think that gives you balls.

Speaker 13 (28:50):
All of them what it gives you These days.

Speaker 3 (28:58):
Correspondent's gone ten from five, putting.

Speaker 1 (29:02):
The tough questions to the newspeakers, the Mike asking.

Speaker 21 (29:05):
Breakfast, seems are not going well. I'm afraid to tell
you when it comes to the battle over organized crime.
The chair of this Ministerial Advisory Group is Steve Simon.
What you delivered and what you thought you might deliver?
Are they two different?

Speaker 10 (29:16):
Things?

Speaker 21 (29:16):
Were basically the same.

Speaker 22 (29:17):
I've been doing this for twenty years, so I thought
by this stage, being a prosecutor for two dedicads, they'd
be very little.

Speaker 3 (29:22):
That surprised me.

Speaker 22 (29:22):
But if you look at the numbers, particularly the waytewater numbers,
and you look at the steature numbers of how much
we's stopping coming into the country, and it's pretty frightening.

Speaker 21 (29:29):
You've got a banking security expert on your panel. Are
the banks aware of the money flow? Are they all
over it or not?

Speaker 22 (29:35):
The banks are aware of money flows. So I certainly
did a disconnect between the work done by the private
world and also the govern agency.

Speaker 21 (29:42):
Back tomorrow at six am, the Mike Hosking Breakfast with
the Rain drove of the last news talk ZB.

Speaker 3 (29:47):
Just gone six away from five now. Yesterday we had
Stephen Joyce on the program and he said, because it
was old doom and gloom, remember well it still is
really with the Trump and his tariff for the world.
And we had Stephen Joyce on. He said, his glimmer
of hope is that you'll get some Republican law makers
who'll cross the floor and they will block Trump from
doing the tariffs. Have a listen.

Speaker 7 (30:07):
It's been really interesting to see over the weekend huge
numbers of the Republican parties, big donors and backers come
out and say they're not signed up for this. But
if this continues, then I would expect at some point
the US Senate will start to assert itself, only because
it has to at some stage a process. And what
I mean by that is actually starting to put some

(30:29):
pressure on to the administration to curtail some of their
wildest excesses.

Speaker 3 (30:34):
And so what we've seen is seven Republicans in the
Senate sign a bill that would force Trump to give
Congress notice forty eight hours notice before he slaps on
any new tariff. They also want the power to if
a tarif's going to last more than sixty days, they
want the power to shut it down to give their
approval or dissent. But here's the problem. There's still not

(30:57):
enough support to get a bill passed, enough to get
a bill on the floor, and even if they do
get all of that, Trump can veto it. So Ran
Paul who's a Republican, but he doesn't like the terrorists.
He's a free trade guy, he says, and you know
he wants us to stop, even he says, it's going
to be very hard to overturn a vito. So you've

(31:19):
got some groups who are trying to go through the courts,
and I mean, the rest of the world is looking
on going, please find us an exit and escape route here,
you know, and a jets button. But the courts have
been pretty friendly to Trump over the deportations and stuff
like that. They're trying that avenue. But in terms of
the lawmakers, basically this is more of a hope strategy,

(31:41):
not actually going to happen strategy. So sorry, Stephen, not
anytime soon anyway. Four away from five Bryan Bridge. This
is interesting. So Forsyth bar has cut km D brands
remember we had KMD brands on the program a couple
of weeks ago. They're the ones that do rip curl.
They've cut their target price down twenty one point six
percent because of the tariffs. So they make rip curl clothes.

(32:04):
They are listed on the z X. Shares are down
twelve percent since Trump announced the tariffs. The problem is
rip curl manufactured in Asia sold in the USA. I
mean it's sold in lots of different places, but a
lot of this stuff is sold in the USA. And
of course some of these Asian countries have been hit
hardest by the tariffs, so they have been downgraded. Their

(32:27):
prices being downgraded by foresyfte bar not great for them,
not great for their share price either. But as I said,
everyone's sort of hoping that we might get some kind
of resolution, some sort of negotiation happening. We'll talk to
a q we exported after five about this. He is
Egmont Honey, James Annabel. He's got a couple of ships
in the water right now heading for the United States

(32:49):
with a product on board. Has he managed to pass
on the tariff that's coming into effect? That's next.

Speaker 1 (33:17):
Questions answers, facts, analysis, the drive show you trust for
the full picture. Brian Bridge on Heather Duplicy Allen Drive
with one New Zealand, let's get connected news talks.

Speaker 3 (33:30):
They'd be good everything. Wenesday, the ninth of April, just
gone seven after five. Great to have you with me tonight.
The Reserve Bank has cut twenty five points to three
and a half percent. On the question of tariffs and
how they might impact the economy going forward, they basically
said it's too soon to say, but they did say
there is room to move lower, should they need to.
Kelly Echol's Westpac chief economist with US tonight. Hi, Kelly, OHI.

Speaker 15 (33:52):
Yeah, are you good?

Speaker 3 (33:53):
Thank you? So they've taken the steady as she goes option,
which is probably the right one given the times.

Speaker 8 (33:59):
Yeah, I think that's right. There was certainly no sense
of undue, anguish or panic there, which is appropriate given
things are moving quite quickly right now.

Speaker 3 (34:09):
How they mentioned they do have room to go lower
three Adrian NOI used to say that was the sort
of bottom of neutral. Would they go lower than that?

Speaker 8 (34:19):
Well, I think there's a possibility that could happen. They
didn't really say anything like that in this statement. They
just more pointed to the downside risks for growth particularly
and inflation to some extent. So you don't have to
be very much of a rocket scientist to believe that
when they'd give us the next set of forecasts in

(34:40):
May that will forecast to interest rate being a bit
lower than it was, and where it was had a
bottom of the oco about three point one percent.

Speaker 3 (34:50):
So where do you reckon the bottom might be now?
I guess we got too soon to say are you
are you sticking to their line on that, Kelly, or
are you going to go further for us?

Speaker 8 (34:57):
I think it's a little bit hard to say. I mean,
it's pretty clear to me that there's downside risks to
certainly the forecast that we've had for a couple of
months now that the bottom of the cycle will be
at three point two five percent, But exactly the extent
of those, I think is genuinely very hard to assess,
And if you just take a casual look at the

(35:19):
news flow you can see why. I mean, there's no
clarity really about how long and the extent to which
these tariffs are going to be in place, how countries
are going to respond, and importantly, how this impacts on
New Zealand as well, because there's quite a few changes
happening every day in that regard.

Speaker 3 (35:37):
Your colleagues are at Kirybank have said I saw a
note from them. They want a quick reduction, they want
the ocr down, they want two and a half percent
by the end of the year. Do you think that's
that's rushing things?

Speaker 8 (35:49):
Well, the end of the year is a long way here.
So if it does turn out that a meaningful adjustment
in interest rates is required, I would agree with them
that it will occur by the end of the year.
But what we don't really know here is how large
an adjustment is actually going to be required. All due
respect to them, they've decided to have a bit of
a guest here and they put a number on it.

(36:10):
But I'm also looking at the exchange rate here and
I expect that it will continue to fall, potentially by
quite a lot. And the extent to which it falls,
and the extent to which some of these things we
see globally actually impact on things like export prices is
going to.

Speaker 3 (36:25):
Really matter massively to us when we're an export nation.
What about the risks? So we've spoken a lot about
the downside risk of too of recession, potential recession in
the States and our exports, etc. But what about inflation
and surely the growth downside is riskier or more likely

(36:49):
than the inflation downside.

Speaker 8 (36:51):
Right Yeah, I think it's much more clear that we
have got a lower growth outlook coming out of this
than with inflation. Where the strings pushing and pulling in
different directions.

Speaker 3 (37:03):
Kelly, great to have you on the show. Thank you,
Kelly E Cold, Westpac Chief Economist. It is ten minutes
after five. Rich government is saying yes please to woolen
insulation and carpets and government buildings over synthetic materials from July.
All government buildings worth more than nine million dollars and
refurbishments with the price tag of one hundred thousand dollars
or more must use Kiwi will quote where possible. This

(37:28):
is all part of the New Zealand First coalition. Dear Winston,
Peter's proud as punch.

Speaker 9 (37:31):
We are proud as a government as a party to
back our farmers and rural sectors in there many thousands
of workers. We are putting New Zealand wool first again.

Speaker 3 (37:40):
Kara Biggs is with the Campaign for Wool here and
she's with me.

Speaker 23 (37:44):
Now, Hi, Kara, Hello Ryan, thanks for having us.

Speaker 3 (37:47):
You happy as Winston is?

Speaker 23 (37:50):
I think maybe can we be happier, really ecstatic about this?
It's amazing.

Speaker 3 (37:54):
What about the nine million dollars? You know they're going
to have to build buildings worth more than nine million dollars.
How many of those are they doing?

Speaker 10 (38:01):
Well?

Speaker 23 (38:01):
It's hard to say at the moment, but what they
are doing is they are absolutely making sure that agencies
within the government are making sure that they prioritize wool
products within all of their builds. And not only that,
I mean Nikola Wallace also willis sorry, also said that
she is asking agencies to report against why they haven't

(38:22):
chosen wols, So they really they don't really have a
get out of jail free card.

Speaker 10 (38:27):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (38:28):
I was going to say, there is that language still around,
you know where possible. I think it says or as appropriate.
Are you worried about that?

Speaker 23 (38:36):
So, honestly I was, But having heard the three of
them speak today, not so much. They will be asking
for reports. They say, Woll stacks up. They say it's
a value conversation. Now it's not a cost conversation. And
it's a long term play. So it's not just about
how much this is going to cost. Now, it's what's

(38:57):
the value for money in the long term. So now
I'm not very much less worried about that.

Speaker 3 (39:02):
Will is so good for so many different reasons. And
I say this as the son in law of a
sheep and beef farmer who and so I've kind of
learned over the last few years. But can you just
tell us even the flammable qualities. You put a match
up to a lighter up to this over the synthetic stuff,
it's day night.

Speaker 23 (39:22):
Yeah, yeah, one hundred percent. So if you put a
match up to a synthetic product, it will basically melt,
and it melts in a big gooey mess. It can
melt onto skin. It causes all sorts of issues. If
you have a wool product, it will ignite at a
very high temperature. But to start with, it basically scorches.

(39:42):
And that's why as kids we were all given you know,
woolen blankets on the end of our bed so that
we could wrap ourselves up at them and you know,
run out of a house fire will it will scorch,
but it will not burn until it is a very
very high ignition point.

Speaker 3 (39:57):
How much do you reckon it might be worth, Kara,
something like this.

Speaker 23 (40:02):
Millions and millions. So basically it's not just what the
government is putting in front of us. So I think
Minister Patterson said we could easily double exports with this. Now,
obviously this isn't an export conversation, but what this will
do is it will start to create more and more demand.
So growers, manufacturers, brands, they will all read the benefits,

(40:25):
the financial benefits from this decision today.

Speaker 3 (40:29):
Kara, I appreciate your time, Thank you very much. Kara
Biggs's the general manager at the campaign for Will. Very
happy chappy. Fourteen minutes after five, Ryan Brich someone says,
does anyone know how much the key we will will
cost versus synthetics? Everyone's going to be moaning about that soon.
It's true, it is a lot more expensive. And that's why.
Do you remember we did this story a couple of
months ago about eyeing or order not using New Zealand

(40:52):
Will in their homes to refurb their homes because the
synthetic was so much cheaper. It was like half the cost.
But there are upsides to the local economy from doing this.
Here I am sounding like an economic protectionist, which is
what Winston Peters sounded a lot like today, which is
right up his alley. But yeah, it is going to
be more expensive, but then you have the flow on
effects and you have the economic benefits and the jobs

(41:14):
et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And it's also something
that we are basically producing anyway, you know, and at
the moment a lot of it just gets thrown out
and you talk to farmers and they say it's actually
cheaper to it costs you more to get it off
than to leave it on the number to text news
talks he'd be Wayne Brown has found himself in a
bit of trouble because he took a call, a video call,

(41:38):
while he was in a car driving it ironically, talking
to the Aukland Transport Committee. Have listened. This is some
of the audio. Nope, we haven't got it. Sorry, I
thought we had Wayne Brown audio, but we don't have
Wayne Brown audio, which is fine because all you need
to know is that it's basically a camera up Wayne
Brown's nose and Wayne Brown takes a call and speaks

(42:03):
to the Transport Committee while he's driving his car. Anyway,
here's a little bit of the audio.

Speaker 7 (42:10):
Those lines within the submission.

Speaker 2 (42:15):
All right, well.

Speaker 7 (42:18):
Submission yep.

Speaker 11 (42:20):
And I'm not as keen on any exemptions as some
council of seen to be.

Speaker 3 (42:27):
Everyone in the room's kind of stunned because they can
see he's driving a car anyway. Half the shots are
up his nose. He's talking to transport people. It's Wayne's world,
and we're just living in it, aren't we. There's no
road cones in Wayne's world. There's no muppets in Wayne's world.
And you're allowed to drive with the phone on video
conference sixteen after five. Strap yourselves in, everybody, get your

(42:50):
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You can grab a case of one of the most
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all year. And it's available online right now the Good
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destination was an offshore market, now being urgently cleared at

(43:12):
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The wine is called Southern Lines Mulbra seven Yon Blanc
twenty twenty three. If you've tried it, you'll like it.
Let's just say the quality you're getting here for the
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(43:35):
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export order nine to ninety nine per bottle and a
dollar per case delivery to your door. What more do
you want? Phones are open, but they'll be ringing hot.
Your best bet is to go online right now the

(43:56):
Goodwineco dot co, dot MZ. You can call eight hundred
double six two double six to two, Ryan Bridge so
many texts on Wayne Brown Ryan. I call into meetings
all the time while driving. Provided the phone is on
hands free, it's perfectly legal. Well he wasn't just on
hands free, and I've looked up what the law says.
But just so that everyone is aware, he was holding

(44:17):
the phone because he was moving it. He moved it
from his lap to his face, so he's clearly holding
the phone, which you're not allowed to do. The law
says you can use your phone only if either of
the following is true. It's secured to a mounted fix
on the vehicle, or you are able to operate it
without touching any part of the phone by Bluetooth, voice activation,

(44:40):
et cetera, et cetera. So actually, I guess that person
was right, but Wayne wasn't. Twenty one after five ray
Bridge shade tarifs are in place. Now they've been in
place for just over an hour. It's ten percent for
Kiwi Goods heading to the United States. James Annabel is
the founder of Egmont. Honey, he's with me tonight, got
stuff hitting that way. James, good evening, Thanks.

Speaker 10 (45:00):
For having me.

Speaker 3 (45:00):
Good to have you on. So just how well, what
have you got in the ocean at the moment heading
to the States, And what's the deal with the tariffs.

Speaker 24 (45:08):
Yeah, we've got five or six containers on the water
which I believe are exempt actually is which is great,
But I know for a fact that we've sort of
we've got about ten containers due to leave sort of
end of April May, which will.

Speaker 3 (45:19):
All be subject to ten percent tariffs.

Speaker 24 (45:21):
So we were obviously scrambling when we got the news
last week.

Speaker 3 (45:25):
The ones that are exempt, do you mean because they
are already on the water, they won't face the charge
that's happened too soon. Yeah, that's right.

Speaker 24 (45:31):
So I believe anything that left kind of after Saturday,
well before Saturday last week, we're exempt. I could be
wrong there, as an expert, will probably bring it in
some wrong, but we understand that what's on the water.

Speaker 3 (45:42):
Now is okay.

Speaker 24 (45:44):
But the containers to come are all going to be
subject to that ten percent.

Speaker 3 (45:47):
And for the honey that's going in April, have you
figured out you whether you'll be able to pass that
on to your consumers?

Speaker 24 (45:54):
Yeah, Look, we're we're in a situation where we've got
a bit of a pipeline fill because we've just won
a big, big chunk of business with Costco USA, so
we yeah, we obviously jump on the emails pretty quick
to try and get a meeting with the buyer, and
luckily he was pretty responsive and he's actually allowed us
to pass that ten percent onto them, So we've escaped
it pretty well. And of course, when you're when you're

(46:15):
tendering for that kind of work, you know, you put
your best foot forward anyway, So we couldn't afford really
to to suck up ten percent and he knew that.
So I guess it's the US consumer that will well
will take the brunt of they'll have.

Speaker 2 (46:26):
To wear it in our case, yeah.

Speaker 3 (46:28):
Will they buy less?

Speaker 10 (46:30):
Look?

Speaker 3 (46:31):
I guess that's.

Speaker 24 (46:31):
Always the the conundrum we're in, you know, economic uncertain times.
Are people going to pay an extra ten percent for manuucua?
I mean it's already a premium product, but if I guess,
if you know, if your household shop, your price of
everything's going up, you're certainly going to be considering whether
you need a pot.

Speaker 3 (46:47):
Of Manuka honey.

Speaker 24 (46:48):
But you know, places like Costco they're pretty competitive anyway,
so we're we're not too concerned at the moment.

Speaker 3 (46:55):
James, good to have you on the show. And who
doesn't want Look, even if it's ten percent extra, you
want your Egmont honey, don't you? James Annavel, founder of
Eggmont Honey. It is twenty three minutes after five year
on news talks there'd be. There was a report out
today on violence or threats against MPs. I'll tell you
about that next.

Speaker 1 (47:11):
Checking the point of the story, it's Ryan Bridge on
either duplic Ellen Drive with one New Zealand let's get
connected and us talks'd b.

Speaker 3 (47:20):
Five twenty six. There's another report out today about keyboard
warriors saying nasty things, awful things to politicians. It happens
to people on both sides of politics. This report out
today only spoke to women MPs, but it says that
they copy it more than men. They get it worse
than men. Death threats, racist stuff, all the worst bits

(47:41):
of social media. And having worked alongside some high profile
women in the news in my time, I know that
they get stuff about their appearance far more than men do.
I know that for a fact, because I've seen the emails.
It's crap. Here's the problem. I don't think it's ever
going to stop or change. The Internet is a cess
pit and it brings out the worst in people. We

(48:01):
all know. Social media is bad for children, it's bad
for adults. It rewires the brain. It makes us dumb,
it makes us intolerant. People get radicalized, doesn't matter which
side of politics you come from. Social media is generally
not a rational destination for meaningful debate in my experience.
So my question is why go there if it is

(48:23):
so toxic, so bad for your mental health, the stress,
the anxiety, the depression, switch it off. I did exactly
that a couple of years ago. I got rid of
the apps on my phone. What you did is don't
see you can't hurt you. My life has been a
miserably better ever since. People say, oh, but I need
it for work or to communicate with constituents for an MP.

(48:45):
We manage just fine pre Internet people. We have email
where bad words can be screened and binned before reading.
If anything, politicians should be leading the charge on this
and saying to young people, hey, email me because is
actually phones aren't that great for you? Is it going
to change society doing this?

Speaker 2 (49:06):
No?

Speaker 3 (49:06):
Will it change your life? Without a doubt.

Speaker 25 (49:10):
Brian Bridge on News Talks, there'd be.

Speaker 3 (49:13):
I just had a text from my mum that says,
if you get a chance, please so high at Grandma.
She's listening to you from hospital. She's had a knee
op today. So hi, Gramdmar. I hope your knee is
feeling all right at eighty eight A new need? Do
you need one? You know? What are you going to
do with that? Grandma? Run a marathon? Is there someone
more needy than you? Hope your needs healing well, Grannie.

(49:38):
The huddle is next.

Speaker 1 (49:44):
After making the news, the news makers talk to Ryan first.
It's Ryan Bridge on Hither Duplicy Ellen Drive with one
New Zealand let's get connected.

Speaker 2 (49:55):
News talks 'd bed you're taking me?

Speaker 15 (50:01):
Would you.

Speaker 23 (50:08):
Drunk of you.

Speaker 20 (50:11):
Good?

Speaker 3 (50:12):
It is twenty four minutes away from six Yer on
news talk z'b. I'm honestly quite surprised. I made a
throwaway comment about my grandma before we went to news,
who's currently having a knee operation in Wellington in the hospital.
Wished her well, made a little joke that my grandmother
would understand and appreciate. And man, people saying I'm disrespectful

(50:33):
to I need to apologize to my grandmother. I've gone
down in your estimations. Sandra says, your popularity with me
is now in the toilet. Don't worry. Grandma understands she's
going to be fine. Twenty three away from six now.
So Benjamin Doyle in Wellington he came to Parliament today.
Return to Parliament reflected on the fact that they've been

(50:54):
facing a huge amount of threats, more than they could
have ever expected. Have a listen, that.

Speaker 5 (50:58):
My life and that of my child would be threatened,
that poisonous, transphobic hate and imported culture wars would be
leveled against me and my community, not just by extremists online,
but by individuals who hold the highest level of authority

(51:20):
in this institution.

Speaker 3 (51:22):
The threats are apparently significant.

Speaker 5 (51:25):
I have been fielding a significant number of threats to
my life and the safety of my child and family,
some of which have been so graphic and disturbing that
I have been advised not to leave my house or
appear in public due to real concerns for my safety.

Speaker 3 (51:44):
With regards to the words a word bussy, the.

Speaker 5 (51:47):
Words I used in my private account historically were not
sexual words. They were nicknames and references to myself.

Speaker 3 (51:56):
Doyle said he was worn by the Greens.

Speaker 5 (51:58):
This is why when I was advised by the party
to delete the page before coming to Parliament, I chose
not to. I can admit that I was politically naive.

Speaker 3 (52:10):
All right, Let's leave it there and move on. Twenty
two away from six.

Speaker 1 (52:13):
The Huddle with New Zealand Southurby's International Realty, the ones
with worldwide connections that perform.

Speaker 2 (52:19):
Not promise.

Speaker 3 (52:20):
Jack Tame, host of Saturday Mornings and Q and A's
in the studio. Hey Jack, to see.

Speaker 26 (52:24):
You sitting here all comfortable, knowing your poor grandma. She
would have been tuning in. She would have had everyone
at the hospital tuning in, saying, listen to this my grandson.
Look at what he's become. He's achieved so much in
this world, only to hear those monstrous words unbelievable, unbelievable.

Speaker 3 (52:42):
You know what, Grannie has a wilder sense of humor
than I do, even at the ripe hold age of
eighty eight, so she'll be cackling away in bed.

Speaker 4 (52:50):
I know.

Speaker 26 (52:51):
To explain to her what the word bussy means, that's
my question.

Speaker 3 (52:53):
Wow, we actually never had that conversation, so I'm hoping
she worked it out on her own. Tim Wilson's of
two from the Max Some Institute Evening, Tim.

Speaker 27 (53:02):
Oh good A and Cira and Yeah, I'm with Jack.
I think once Granny's knees fixed, she's going to walk
up and watch that mouth of yours that have healthy
mouth of yours out.

Speaker 3 (53:10):
What's soap?

Speaker 10 (53:11):
That's the thing, it'll be well deserved.

Speaker 3 (53:13):
Then they don't walk far. That's the thing that's happened.

Speaker 10 (53:17):
Oh, I see, you're going to be running away. You're
not going to take your punishment.

Speaker 3 (53:21):
Hey, let's talk about something else at the ocr So
we've had twenty five basis point drop today, which everybody
was expecting. Jack probably the right and sensible thing to do.
Plus Christian hawks, we've just got in there. You're hardly
going to come in and shake up boom boom, shake
up the room on the first go, are you No?
I don't think so.

Speaker 26 (53:37):
And like, if there's one word I think I've heard
one hundred and fifty thousand times over the last six
or seven days, it's the word uncertainty, and it just
can't seems to be the thing that is defining markets
and fiscal responses and geopolitics everywhere at the moment. I mean,
there'll be some people who say, actually the Reserve Bank
should be going harder and faster in the face of

(53:57):
the tariffs, But can anyone say with any confidence that
the tariffs as they stand today are going to be
exactly the same three days from now, seven days from now,
a month from now.

Speaker 3 (54:07):
I don't think we can.

Speaker 26 (54:08):
So I think it's probably the prudent response at the
stage for the Reserve Bank just to go, you know what,
we're We're going to stick with the directory we were
on for the time being. We're waiting when the facts
change on the ground. If in a month or so,
you know, things are entirely different the global economies and
full blown meltdown and we're looking like we're staying here,
then maybe we changed tack.

Speaker 3 (54:30):
Yeah, Tim, It's interesting because if you're waiting to fix
and I know a lot of the reports have been saying, oh,
you shouldn't do that, you shouldn't try and pick the
bottom of the market. Well, I'm trying to do that.
So I'm quite happy with how things are going at
the moment, because, if anything, they're going to drop further
and harder than we thought they were.

Speaker 27 (54:48):
You think so, And to Jack's point, I hear what
you're saying, but under you know, in uncertain times, do
you actually maintain the same strategy if you're not sure
or do you think actually I'm not sure.

Speaker 10 (54:58):
I need to make some amendments.

Speaker 27 (55:00):
There are some of a calling saying, oh, you know,
we should we should actually be spending more. We're actually
still deficit spending so last year it was one billion
per month and you've got to.

Speaker 10 (55:09):
You know, you gotta.

Speaker 27 (55:10):
I think Richard People was arguing this morning that in
a in an unstable time is a high debt load
actually actually that wise?

Speaker 10 (55:18):
So hmmm, yeah, I'm not sure. I'm not sure.

Speaker 27 (55:21):
I mean, you know, for the sake of your mortgage,
at least maybe go to fifty basis points.

Speaker 26 (55:25):
Yeah, I mean it's that it's the the global economy's lost.
But Ryan Bridge is gain.

Speaker 3 (55:28):
Am I right? Exactly? At least there are some selver aligning.

Speaker 27 (55:33):
By granny, by granny a box of chocolates, right, And
that might be.

Speaker 3 (55:36):
At the end of the day, there's only one thing
that matters, and that's yourself. Yes, that's the fair right.
It's just gone eighteen minutes away from six. We've got
Jack Tayman, Tim Wilson on the huddle, will be back
in just a moment.

Speaker 1 (55:48):
The huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty achieve extraordinary
results with unparallel reach.

Speaker 3 (55:55):
Sixteen away from six news talks, there be so Barbara
Edmonds is supposed to be on this program after six
o'clock tonight because she put out quite a strongly worded
email about Nikola Willis.

Speaker 26 (56:04):
I just want to say how much I'm looking forward
to that interview. Well, I'm really keenly anticipating that interview.

Speaker 3 (56:09):
It may not happen. What We've just had a phone
call from Barbara Edmonds and she's pulled out of the interview.

Speaker 28 (56:16):
She's as a grandma grandma game.

Speaker 10 (56:22):
That's one of that is.

Speaker 27 (56:24):
I was thinking it was about you know, we're already
in debt enough and that suedo.

Speaker 10 (56:27):
But no, it's grandma grandma.

Speaker 3 (56:30):
So yeah, so Jack and Tim Wilson here by the way, Yes,
so apparently there was a fire alarm at Parliament, so
therefore the interview needs to be canceled. How does that
make sense? Anyway, We're trying to get to the bottom
of that. Anyway, we'll move on in the meantime. So
Auckland University researchers have found that higher EV uptake. Have

(56:50):
you got an EV Jack, No, you look like the
kind of person that have an EV. No, I don't.

Speaker 26 (56:55):
I have a hybrid a non plug in home.

Speaker 3 (56:59):
Well, that's okay, I mean not there's anything wrong with
having an EV tim Do you have an ev.

Speaker 10 (57:05):
Most certainly not. I got a Suzuki Swift.

Speaker 3 (57:08):
Swifty, so we're okay, and here's but here's here's the deal.

Speaker 10 (57:12):
Here's the deal.

Speaker 27 (57:12):
Like you know, dirty coal that powers up EV's actually
pollutes more than petrol. There's the battery life issue with evs.
There's what happens after the batteries cooked itself. The only
person more smuggl than a Tesla owner right now is
me and missus Zurki Swift.

Speaker 3 (57:26):
Yeah, but the thing is in New Zealand, it would
be different because it's largely renewable renewable.

Speaker 26 (57:31):
Yeah, it's more than ninety percent renewable, I think, right. So,
but this makes sense like that the transport is only
you know, electric powered transport is only as green as
the electricity that is powering it. And so if you
have read around the world that are still largely dependent
on fossil fuels and people are charging electric vehicles with
electricity that generated through fossil fuels, then yeah, this is

(57:54):
this makes entire sense. It's one of those kind of
it's a bit of a first mover problem. Right, Like,
if you were to say that, if you believe in
the green energy transition, and you say that consumers have
a responsibility and that governments have a responsibility, you sort
of need them pulling in the same direction. And you
can look at this and say, well, actually a big
state of consumers have made the transition to evs and

(58:14):
they've looked for cleaner forms of transportation. But arguably governments
around the world haven't been as quick to move and
increasing their green electricity.

Speaker 3 (58:23):
Because a lot of them can't. Well, and there's just
like land reasons why you can't. You know, you don't
have enough sun, or you don't have enough sal hydro
or whatever it is, yep, yep, or you don't have
enough nuclear power.

Speaker 26 (58:34):
So there are still there are still plenty of options
I think for governments around the world. I mean, sola
has been getting vastly more cheaper, you know, by the year,
and I think governments around the world have probably had
plenty of opportunities, certainly developed economies to move a little
more quickly and greening up their electricity generation. But yeah,
I mean it kind of makes sense, all right, tim

(58:56):
the Benjamin Doyle stuff. So they have come out today
and see that they were just being themselves and Bussy
refers to them it's like a nickname. Didn't quite explain
what that meant, whether whether it's the Benjamin to be
and Benjamin is I don't know. I didn't go into that,

(59:16):
but that was the explanation.

Speaker 3 (59:18):
What do you think, Tom, you're willing to put this
to bed or were you exercised in the first place?

Speaker 27 (59:23):
Yeah, this was the press conference that should have been
held last week. And my thought is that while death
threats are bad, and they're absolutely terrible, they don't insulate
you from criticism.

Speaker 10 (59:33):
You need to answer the criticism.

Speaker 27 (59:35):
So I would say that the Greens haven't really done
Benjamin Doyle much of a favor. What they need to
do is get an independent investigator. That's the way this
would be put to bed. Otherwise it continues to be
a dispute about, oh, what does Bussy mean? What was
the subtext here? What was actually meant? It just remains problematic.

Speaker 26 (59:54):
I don't think an independent investigator is necessary. Look, regards
less of who you vote for, regardless of your politics,
we can all agree that death threats to anyone is
totally unacceptable, right in any context. That being said, I
think if you look at the greens of the last
couple of weeks and honestly of the last couple of years,

(01:00:14):
it is very hard to see how some of the
MPs in that party are at all serious about governing.
And you know, I think one of the central criticisms
I have, they're all out of jail.

Speaker 4 (01:00:25):
I know.

Speaker 26 (01:00:26):
One of the criticism I have is like, if you
want to create the change that you say is so
vital in the world, well you actually have to get
into government. It's not just a case of being in parliament.
It's a case of being in government, and government means
that you need to be a serious legislated But.

Speaker 3 (01:00:41):
And I look at these kind of they actually don't
say that, Jack, if you listen to them, they talk
more about representations. This is one of This is my point.

Speaker 26 (01:00:47):
This is my point, and I think benjamins doors explanation
today distilled that perfectly when they said I was advised
by my party coming in as the MP here, I'm
advised by my party to get rid of that private
Instagram account, and I didn't do it because I wanted
to be authentic to my communities. Well, actually, I would
argue that if you really want to create change in

(01:01:09):
the world, the most important thing isn't necessarily being as
authentic to your own niche community as.

Speaker 3 (01:01:14):
You can be.

Speaker 26 (01:01:15):
It's getting into a position where you govern. And to
get into position where you govern, you have to make
good political decisions, and actually these kinds of decisions aren't
consistent with that.

Speaker 27 (01:01:25):
Politics is the out of compromise, and you have to
perhaps compromise some of your authenticity to be able to
wield power.

Speaker 15 (01:01:32):
I think a lot of.

Speaker 26 (01:01:32):
People will look at this and just say they're not serious.
People like you look at the time of the Paul
situation last week as well, and she might say I
was taken out of context and this and novel. I
mean again, if the Greens want to be in power,
they actually have to expand their base or get into
a position where they can govern. And you would have
to say that in the eyes of a lot of voters,
their MPs are not some of their MPs are not
behaving in ways that make people think that they're actually

(01:01:52):
at all suitable for governing positions at the moment.

Speaker 27 (01:01:55):
Yeah, well, I've got a conspiracy theory here. So this
is another This may be another domino. So Andrew Little
today announces that he's going to go for the Mira Wellington.
Craig Rennie non announced might well be standing for Tamotha
Paul's electorate in the next election on this very this
very platform the Huddle, the Labor's going green hunting. I'm

(01:02:17):
just saying the dominoes are falling.

Speaker 10 (01:02:19):
I'm hungry.

Speaker 3 (01:02:20):
Yeah, all right, We'll leave it there, guys. Jack tamed
Tim Wilson on the Huddle tonight, nine minutes away from
six News Talks HEB, we may or may not have
I'm just waiting for another update on Barb's What's happening
with Barbs? She might be here after six.

Speaker 1 (01:02:32):
It's the Heather Duplessy Allen Drive Full Show podcast on
iHeart Radio powered by NEWSTALKSB News Talks.

Speaker 3 (01:02:40):
HEB. It is seven minutes away from six, so their
update is no Barb, it is no go with Barbara
Edmonds from Labor. She's the Finance spokesperson. And there was
a fire drill at Parliament or not a drill, but
well was it a drill? If it was a drill,
then they would have known there was a fire alarm
at Parliament while they were in the House.

Speaker 2 (01:03:00):
Us.

Speaker 3 (01:03:01):
We couldn't see when we were watching Parliament, watching the
house coverage, couldn't see Barbara actually in the house. But
Our Labour's offices are adjacent, so they would have presumably
been evacuated from the building as well when the fire
alarm went off. But why this happened?

Speaker 28 (01:03:15):
Well, and well that means that yeah, does that mean
we can rule out the nana theory there? Because if
they were all busy running out of the building, they
wouldn't have been able to listen to the show. So
I wouldn't have heard you a little dig with your
Nana's true, they wouldn't the list of possible motives for
pulling out.

Speaker 3 (01:03:28):
That is a good point. Ants, But how long ago
did the fire alarm happen? At least half an hour ago? Now, right,
So half an hour ago a fire alarm goes off
in a building in Wellington and then forty forty five
minutes later an MP can't take a phone call? How
does one plus two does not equal? That equals one hundred?

(01:03:50):
There was minus five hundred? Doesn't make sense anyway, She's
not going to be on the program, but we are
arguing we've got lots more to come anyway, we're gonna
talk to David Norton about borestry and we got some
big problems coming with that. Genets training from the Herald's
going to be with us. Riley Morgan from Milford will
give us a market rap Gavin Grays in the UK,
so don't worry, We're all covered. We didn't need you anyway.
Barth now home loans and I mentioned my I'm still waiting,

(01:04:15):
hanging on for the rates to drop to their low point.
David Cunningham from Squirrel. He talks about swap rates because
obviously the banks what they take into a consideration when
they're setting their rates is not just the ocr but
swap rates as well. Swap rates are down twenty to
twenty five basis points, he says. Globally, interest rates have
fallen because everyone is bailing out of equities, essentially the

(01:04:37):
safe haven and the going into US government stocks, and
US government stock is down, which drags the rest of
the world down. Tariffs would dent growth. We know that
bringing interest rates lower than they otherwise might have been,
so you could end up, and this is what I'm
pinning my hopes on, you could end up with an
interest rate at around four and a half percent currently,

(01:04:58):
you can get four point ninety nine on a two.
So if you can wait, if you can hold out
another couple of months and get four point five, then
you're getting yourself a better deal, aren't you. Markets are
now pricing in and listening to Kelly e Cold, he
was getting close to this, markets are now pricing in
the potential for a two point seven five percent official
cash rate. Remember it's just dropped to three and a

(01:05:19):
half today, twenty five basis points down. It was set
under or to go down to around three, which is neutral,
and market's now pricing in two point seventy five, So
an extra twenty five points by the end of the cycle. Yes, please,
I'll take it. I'll take it. I'll take it. I'll
take it. That notwithstanding we don't know what's happening with Trump.

(01:05:41):
You know, that's a big question mark in the world
right now, isn't it. But that's the same question mark
for everybody, So we're all in the dark. Three minutes
away from six news talk.

Speaker 25 (01:05:50):
SEBB what's up, what's down?

Speaker 2 (01:06:33):
What with a major calls and how will it affect
the economy?

Speaker 1 (01:06:37):
The big business questions on the Business Hour with Ryan
Bridge and Mass Insurance and investments, Grow your wealth, protect
your future.

Speaker 2 (01:06:46):
News talksh be good evening.

Speaker 3 (01:06:48):
It is six after six year old news talks. It'd
be great to have you coming tonight. Jane Tips Training
from the Herald is with us shortly. Riley Morgan from
Milford wraps the action on the insidets and around the world.
Plus we'll have Gavin Gray out of the UK just
before seven o'clock. Right now. Barbara Edmunds, Barb who we've
been looking for a Barb. Where have you been all

(01:07:09):
of our lives? So we've been looking for Barbara Edmunds
from Labor this afternoon because we were meant to have
it for an interview. And then at five point thirty
one a fire alarm goes off at Parliament. Okay, five
thirty seven we get a call from Labour saying interview
is canceled. You know she's not meant to be on
until now, which is after second interview is canceled fire alarm. Okay,

(01:07:30):
that seems odd. Can you not take a phone call
and you know fire alarm was fifteen minutes ago? Anywhay whatever?
Five forty five pm We mentioned this on Are five
point fifty four pm. We mentioned it again, say definitely, no,
Barbara Edmunds, we question the reason for this. Five fifty
seven pm another call from Labor. Barbara's back on. She's
here now, Barbara, good.

Speaker 29 (01:07:49):
Evening, Hi Ryan, how's it going?

Speaker 3 (01:07:53):
Your good? Thanks here, I'm here for what I'm for
what happened?

Speaker 29 (01:07:58):
I think it would just be obviously left my phone,
you know, at the fire alarm, you just got to
get outside. So we just wanted to make sure that
it was weird. Just we didn't know how long we
were going to be outside.

Speaker 30 (01:08:07):
I've been here for ten years.

Speaker 29 (01:08:09):
In Parliament, the precinct drout the Prince seincts the first
time I've ever had a fire drill during a house
sitting time.

Speaker 30 (01:08:14):
So but I'm here man, that's what matters.

Speaker 3 (01:08:16):
No, I'm glad you're here. Do you know what? Always
take your phone with you because if you I've always thought,
you know, what is it next to you or in
your desk? You always take your phone because if your
family wants to get hold of you, then they need
to get hold of you.

Speaker 30 (01:08:28):
You know it's true, that's true. But you know I
was in a meeting, so my bad. But I'm here.

Speaker 3 (01:08:33):
I'm no good to have you here. Now, this press
release you put out today about Nikola Willis attacking Nikola Willis,
you have said Nichola Willis continues to sit on her
hands amid glo a global economic crisis, which, first of all,
would we call this a global economic crisis yet?

Speaker 29 (01:08:50):
Well, I think a lot of commentations are saying that
is a global economic crisis with the retaliation tariffs that
might happen globally. For us, it's really if this is
going to happen offshore, what do you do as a government.
And we believe kind of her to saying we've got this,
we'll hold our position. We don't think that that's enough.

Speaker 3 (01:09:11):
Okay, So what exactly do you want her to do?

Speaker 29 (01:09:15):
Well, A lot of going for growth initiatives are really
based on foreign interventions, for example, if foreign direct investments
or so tourism or so exports sector.

Speaker 30 (01:09:28):
We just want to make sure that there's a.

Speaker 29 (01:09:30):
Balance about looking inwards into New Zealand and taking a
proper look at Actually, Okay, if a third of our
plan is not going to be working to plan because
there's going to be some uncertainty in the global environment,
what do we need to do to look at here
in New Zealand to ensure that we are supporting both
internally and the sectors internally and maybe using it as

(01:09:52):
an opportunity actually.

Speaker 3 (01:09:55):
To do what exactly. I mean, this is all sounding
quite expensive, Barbara. The benefit obviously of foreign investment and
tourism is it someone else pays for it.

Speaker 29 (01:10:03):
Oh? Absolutely, and we still you know, you still welcome that.
But you've also got to have a plan for what
happens internally. For example, if our exporters aren't able to
export the same amount that they're going to be able
to do, or there's going to be impossed in them,
or the far with the foreign exchange rate, with the brown.

Speaker 3 (01:10:20):
Doves, Barbara, at the point, we don't know that yet,
do we. I mean, it has been two hours since
the tariffs came into effect. We don't yet. And you
have used the words global economic crisis, but in the
real world it hasn't actually happened yet. So where would
you specifically recommend that she goes and piles money today.

Speaker 30 (01:10:40):
Well, I'm pretty sure.

Speaker 29 (01:10:41):
That our share markets and the share markets off shore
would say that something has happened. Given the trillion dollars
was taken off. You know, for example, the US markets.
We're a lot of our our ken we say, our
surf orannuation fund where we have investments in.

Speaker 3 (01:10:54):
Absolutely the shock market. The stock market has felt the shock,
no doubt. But what exactly do you want her to
do in the real economy right now? Where do you
want her to spend this money?

Speaker 29 (01:11:06):
Definitely on infrastructure. We've been saying that for the last year.
The government had paused, canceled a lot of infrastructure projects,
have had their summit recently. This is the time for
them to really clearly signal and to get those projects underway,
because remember we've lost thirteen thousand construction sector jobs in.

Speaker 30 (01:11:24):
The last year.

Speaker 29 (01:11:26):
Those are the people that we basically have trained up
here in New Zealand using apprenticeship, Booth's other initiatives, that
are now going offshore, particularly to Australia to find work.

Speaker 3 (01:11:35):
Yeah, but that they're talking all the time about infrastructure
investments and they've had their summit. I mean they're asking
it for others to join them to pay for some
of it, but they're also stumping up for motorways and the.

Speaker 29 (01:11:47):
Like, and it's just right. It's talk but you kin'd
of needed the action last year instead of putting the handbrake.

Speaker 3 (01:11:53):
On the operating allowance that she's set two and a
half billion. Would you go with that or would you
want it to be hired? Do you think she should
that she should go for a bit of a boost.

Speaker 29 (01:12:03):
Well, we're going to see what's going to happen during
the budget.

Speaker 30 (01:12:06):
I mean, the.

Speaker 29 (01:12:07):
Treasury said last budget that you need a minimum of
two point five billion to keep up with population growth
and inflation.

Speaker 30 (01:12:15):
But they chose the two point four and you've seen
that they're really pre.

Speaker 29 (01:12:18):
Permitted a lot of that from last year's budget. So
you'd be having a good look at your operating allowance
and be able to say, okay. She says that she
feels comfortable with that. My question is, though, do quees
feel comfortable with that? Are they getting the access to
healthcare that they need? Are they able to basically be
able to do feel comfortable with that needs?

Speaker 3 (01:12:37):
Would you go bigger?

Speaker 29 (01:12:40):
I would need to look at books that she's getting
and she's getting the advice we aren't. We're having to
get the information from from commentary and from you know,
we questioned the Minister in the House and this yesterday.

Speaker 3 (01:12:51):
They can't tell you.

Speaker 30 (01:12:51):
We weren't able to get any information from him.

Speaker 3 (01:12:54):
They can't tell you before it happened, before they do
their pre budget release. But what about the forty six
percent of GDP that we're going to hit in twenty
six twenty seven, What is an acceptable for you in
terms of call net debt? What is an acceptable level?

Speaker 29 (01:13:09):
Well, it's quite interesting the minister at that investment so much,
Nikole Willis, she said we have low levels of debt.
So that's the first time I'd heard her say that
publicly because all of the election campaign she's been talking
about high levels of debt. So obviously we don't want
to be over in debt because there is that structural deficit.

(01:13:30):
But you need to look at the long term view
as well and where that debt is being dispense. And
as I've said before, infrastructure. If you're going to have
to borrow, you borrow.

Speaker 30 (01:13:39):
It for infrastructure.

Speaker 29 (01:13:40):
So again we're open to that foreign We are open
to that foreign investment for the right assets.

Speaker 3 (01:13:46):
But what's the acceptable number for you? How high would
you take it? Are you comfortable taking.

Speaker 29 (01:13:52):
Out I'm not going to announce the Labor Party for
skill plant today. But again we're going to be looking
at the numbers that come out of the budget update
is another monetary Podoissey statement by the Reserve Bank and
may those numbers are going to be really key for
us as to where we land for after school plan.

Speaker 3 (01:14:09):
Barbara, appreciate your time. Nice to have you on the phone. Finally,
Barbara Edmonds, Labour's finance spokesperson. It is fourteen after six
News Talks thereb Genetip Training here.

Speaker 1 (01:14:17):
Next it's the Heather dupas Allen Drive Full Show podcast
on my Heart Radio empowered by.

Speaker 3 (01:14:23):
Newstalks EBB News Talk ZBB. It is six seventeen the Government.
We're going back to Parliament weirdly now and apparently the
fire alarm is over, but there's a party happening somewhere.
The government is making a change to our consumer finance laws.
This is interesting because it could actually affect a class
action lawsuit. It could quash a huge class action lawsuit

(01:14:44):
against A and Z an ASB Bank. Genetip trainee is
The Herald's Wellington Business editor with us Hey Jnay, Hey Ryan,
how's that are you near? That party? Is that what
I can hear in the background.

Speaker 31 (01:14:53):
I am near the party, but I'm unfortunately not at
the party. So if anyone hears any noise, I'm not
at the I'm talking about consumer finance law instead, which
is obviously much better.

Speaker 3 (01:15:05):
No wonder you're not at the party exactly. Hey, remind
us what this lawsuit is. What's the crux of it?

Speaker 31 (01:15:12):
Okay, So basically, under the current law, if your bank
or other lender gives you a loan but gives you
the wrong information about that loan, the default position is
you can get them to reimburse you all your interest
costs and other costs that you've paid for the time
that they gave you the wrong information. So that's like

(01:15:33):
if you go and use a mortgage calculator and it
spouts out one number, but they actually charge you another
number in another figure. You know that that is a
bad thing by the lender. And currently the default position
is that you can get all your interests in other
costs reimbursed. So there's currently a class action before the
courts because more than one hundred and fifty thousand people

(01:15:57):
have received the wrong information from A and Z and
ASB in the past, and this class action is trying
to get interest costs reimbursed for all these people. So
it could be hundreds of millions of dollars, possibly even
billions of dollars that these two banks have to repay
their customers. So that case is currently going through the courts,

(01:16:19):
but the government is looking to change the law in
such a way that that court case will be affected.
It's worried that the law is too heavy handed and
that the penalty that these banks face is disproportionate to
the mistake that they made.

Speaker 3 (01:16:36):
That's a pretty unusual call for a government to make,
isn't it. I mean, this is a private business. They've
made a mistake, well, potentially made a mistake. Obviously the
courts will decide that, but why would the government want
to get involved?

Speaker 31 (01:16:48):
Yeah, So, look, I think the government is worried that
if the penalty is disproportionate, that will make lenders to
risk averse and also add to their costs. Like if
these banks have to pay you know, hundreds of millions
of dollars we end up paying, that they end up
passing those costs onto their customers. The government's also worried

(01:17:12):
that if a small lender, like a little finance company
was hit by this, it could really cripple them and
make it harder for them to compete with the big banks.
So basically, the one hundred and fifty thousand bank customers,
they've already received some redress for the mistakes that the
bank's made. But the issue that's kind of being debated
now is, you know, whether they deserve to be compensated

(01:17:34):
more for those breaches. So it is a pretty unusual
situation for the government to change the law and make
it apply to something in the past, and not only that,
but make it apply to something that is actually before
the courts.

Speaker 3 (01:17:48):
Yeah, really interesting move, Jenat thanks for walking us through that.
Appreciated Jenative training Insid Heralds Wellington Business editor outside a
party at Parliament and Wellington. It's just gone six twenty.
You're on news Talk. Seb Milford wraps the market.

Speaker 2 (01:18:00):
It's next.

Speaker 3 (01:18:00):
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Speaker 2 (01:19:00):
Croasing the numbers and getting the results.

Speaker 1 (01:19:02):
It's Ryan Bridge with the Business hour and Mass Insurance
and Investments. Grew your wealth, Protect your future, use dogs dB.

Speaker 3 (01:19:11):
A lot of text about Barbara Edmonds coming and I'll
get to those in a second. The NZX finished down
zero point seven for the day, the A six two
hundred currently down one point eight, and the Reserve Bank
today cut the official cash right twenty five basis points.
We're now down to three and a half. Remy Morgan's
Milfit asset management with us tonight, Remy good evening, Hi, Ryan.
Very much in line with expectations, this cut, isn't it.

Speaker 32 (01:19:34):
Yeah.

Speaker 33 (01:19:35):
So today's OCR decision, as you say, was very much
expected by the market. With twenty five basis points fully
priced in in the minutes today, there was nothing to
suggest that they considered a smaller or larger cut at
this point in time. But what we have seen over
the last few days leading into today's decision was a
shift to the market pricing three further cuts from here

(01:19:57):
rather than two previously. And that's large been in response
to the tariff announcement last week and market concerns on
global growth.

Speaker 3 (01:20:05):
Yeah, and those cuts taking the market prediction to lower
than it was at three point one, down to two
point seventy five. I think what about the Reserve Bank?
Do they consider the tariff policies? Did they mention that
in their note?

Speaker 33 (01:20:19):
Yeah, So there's still quite a lot of uncertainty over
what might actually happen. And this is why the RBNZAI
didn't really deviate from expectation today. But what most of
the committee did consider is that these trade policies do
have the potential to move New Zealand inflation lower over
the medium term. So what they mentioned in the minutes
is that as the picture becomes more clear, they do

(01:20:40):
have the scope to respond as necessary.

Speaker 3 (01:20:44):
How could the trade teriffs do you think impact the
future decisions?

Speaker 33 (01:20:48):
Yeah, so if there is a risk of low inflation,
the RBNSI couldn't look to further reduce the ocr so
that could mean a faster pace of cuts or potentially
a lower CACHE rate at the end of the year.
But again this is really going to depend on several
factors and how they play out over the coming weeks.

Speaker 3 (01:21:06):
What will the RBNZ watch rbnz'd be watching closely.

Speaker 33 (01:21:11):
Yeah, so, first and foremost any negotiations, revisions or responses
to trade policies in the coming weeks, and then from
there the RBNZB all need to look at the impact
on our key trading partners, our currency, and then the
flow through to our domestic economy and inflation.

Speaker 3 (01:21:28):
Remy, thank you for that up Ate, great to have
you on as always. Remy Morgan milfind Asset Management. It's
six twenty six Here on News Talk, Sebb Ryan Bridge
in Tartanaki. You probably don't need to worry about this,
but the University of Canterbury has done some research. They
reckon that there's an up to fifty percent chance of
Mount Taranaki erupting in the next fifty years. Which how

(01:21:48):
useful is that? Up to fifty percent? Not very apparently
the actual range, if you read further, is thirty to
fifty percent chance. What do you do with that information?
That's my question. It's a five year study. They reckon
it could block a whole bunch of roads, a whole
bunch of bridges, cut off some farms. But what do
you do with an up to fifty percent chance of

(01:22:10):
an eruption in fifty years? You're not going to change
your life, aren't you. I don't think anything's going to
change as a result of that. That well done. Twenty
seven after six News Talk said.

Speaker 19 (01:22:19):
B stay, oh, aren't you on?

Speaker 2 (01:22:38):
Need you Olga.

Speaker 4 (01:22:41):
Need.

Speaker 2 (01:22:43):
It's beautiful things that are.

Speaker 1 (01:22:46):
Whether it's Macroe, microbe or just plain economics. It's all
on the business hours with Ryan Bridge and Mares insurance
and investments, Grow your wealth, protect your future.

Speaker 2 (01:22:58):
These talk sead be.

Speaker 34 (01:23:04):
Mysel yet is twenty five to seven.

Speaker 3 (01:23:13):
You're on newstalkz B. Great to have your company tonight.
We're going to get to the UK just before seven o'clock.
They've been hit by tariffs two obviously clice to the
rate near you that we have. But we'll get to
Gavin Gray before top of the hour. Right now. If
you're one of those people who flies and texts the yes,
I will offset my carbon emissions by planting a pine tree,
thank you very much, and then feel totally fine about flying,

(01:23:35):
then you might want to listen to this. The Parliamentary
Commissioner for the Environment has recommended a big shake up
in the way that we do forestry in this country.
He's put out a report that recommends we should stop
using pine forest to offset carbon emissions. He basically thinks
we should phase out forestry offsets for carbon emissions. David
Norton is a strategic science advisor with pure advantage with

(01:23:57):
me tonight, David, good evening, Cure.

Speaker 4 (01:24:00):
It nice to be here, Thank you, Good to have.

Speaker 3 (01:24:02):
You on the show. So why can't we keep using
pine forest? It seems easy to do and feels good.

Speaker 4 (01:24:10):
Yeah, it does seem easy to do, and it does
feel good that The problem, the fundamental problem, is that
we've got to stop producing emissions. We can't offset our
way out of the climate emergency. So I guess the
first reason is that we've also got to stop producing
all the CO two out there.

Speaker 3 (01:24:24):
But if we are going to keep doing it, which,
let's face it, we are going to keep doing for
some time to come, then are we not better off
offsetting it by planting trees, by planting pine? Is that?
Is that a problem now?

Speaker 2 (01:24:38):
Yes?

Speaker 4 (01:24:38):
So that's a really good question. And the problem with
pines is that there's no guarantee they're going to be permanent.
So when you want to offset something, you want to
be sure that carbon is going to stay in the
ground forever, and there is zero guarantee they're going to
be permanent. They'll grow for thirty forty fifty years, but
beyond that we know very little about how they'll perform.
So we'd be clear here, we're talking about permanent radiator

(01:24:59):
pine forests have been planted for carbon. We're not talking
about sustainably managed plantations for timber. And the real warriors
are not going to be permanent. So it's going to
be a liability. The guys, the people who plant them,
made their money over the short term from the carbon offsets.
But who's going to be liable for the environmental the
downstream impacts of those forests collapse and of course for
the loss in the carbon. And that's the real concern.

Speaker 3 (01:25:20):
What do you mean collapse? What will happen to them
after that period of time.

Speaker 4 (01:25:24):
Well, there's no evidence to say that a pine forests. Remember,
pine trees come from California. They're adapted to the Californian environment.
There is no evidence that pine forest will stay permanently
in the ground in Altero and New Zealand. It's not
adapted to our New Zealand environment. And in fact was
being suggested that as climate change becomes more and more
extreme weather from climate change that these tall, thin pine

(01:25:45):
trees that have been carefully selected to grow fast and
sequest lots of carbon, become very prone to wind, throw
to all sorts of extreme storm events and they'll fall down,
fall over. Yeah, yeah, and so the useless. So someone's
got a liability for the carbon that's been stored in them.
It's an economic cost, probably the government in the future.
But what about all the downstream impacts that are going

(01:26:07):
to occur when those forests collapse and impact downstream communities.

Speaker 3 (01:26:12):
So what's the what do we do? I mean the
thing whenever we talk about climate change, I just go
I don't care. Like it's easier for me to just
actually not think about it and carry on with my life.

Speaker 4 (01:26:23):
Yeah, you know what I mean totally. Look, look, we've
got to try and reduce our emissions. That that there's
no two ways about that, and every little step helps
of that. But I think we've got to think about
New Zealand and what New Zealand is facing. So cycling Gabriel,
you know, is going to happen again and again and again,
and it's not a one off event. And we've got
to start thinking how do we build resilient landscapes. How

(01:26:44):
do we make our catchments our landscapes resilient to these
storm events? And forests are really important, but we need
permanent native forests. And I'm involved with Pure Advantage in
this project called Recloaking Papatua Nuku, which is proposing that
we restore, regenerate, assist the development that of two million
hectares of native forest, not in big blocks, but carefully

(01:27:04):
interwoven through landscapes in New Zealand to try and build
landscape resilience and have those native forests will also draw
down carbon as well.

Speaker 3 (01:27:11):
Not as much as the pine though, right, that's the
problem with natives and they take so much.

Speaker 4 (01:27:17):
Yeah, but they'll do it over the longer term and
they'll help build up our resilient landscapes. And the Commission
is quite clear in his report that you know, native
forests can actually provide all these benefits, and of course
they help by diversity the part of who.

Speaker 3 (01:27:29):
We are them who pays for them?

Speaker 4 (01:27:33):
Well, again he recommends by taking forestry out of the ets,
it's going to make the emitters of carbon Dix side
have to pay more to buy their carbon Creadis and
government and that money then gets invested back into doing
to doing native forestry across.

Speaker 3 (01:27:48):
So then we pay more. We have higher power bills
presumably or whatever it might be, you know.

Speaker 4 (01:27:54):
Well not none if it's renewably generated. And I mean
that's the whole thing, the whole idea of their mission.
We have schemes to get us to change our behavior.

Speaker 3 (01:28:02):
And I suppose, but then in my petrol will be
more expensive won't it.

Speaker 4 (01:28:06):
But then maybe we need to be have more evs
and use use use other trans.

Speaker 3 (01:28:10):
Have I got a story for you, David. Have you
read the story today? Go and have a reader. There's
a study from Aukland University. Basically, we can't have the
pine forests, we can't have the EV's. I'm banging my
head against the wall here, David. I don't know what
to do.

Speaker 12 (01:28:28):
About.

Speaker 4 (01:28:29):
No, it's not about tuning out. It's about about looking
at everything we do and thinking about all those individual
small actions can all help in the long run. But
I think to me and my expertise as ecology, as
a forest ecologist, and to me, we need to build
resilient communities, resilient landscapes in New Zealand, and native forests
you know, interwoven through our primary production systems, our farms

(01:28:51):
and our horticultural areas can really help build that and
it's going to be in the long term, and it's
it's what we all want. We all we all relate
to Cody or to Cabbagtry or to Catarou and to
you know, it's all part of who we are.

Speaker 3 (01:29:03):
Yeah, and think, well, I don't know how much I
relate to a cabbage tree. But I certainly I think
if we're going to go down that track, I think
I would relate more to a cabbage tree than I
would to a pine. That's a fair point. Hey, thanks
for coming on the show, David. Interesting stuff. David Norton
Pure Advantage, Strategic Science advisor, talking there about the Parliamentary
Commission for the Environment, saying that you know, pine plantations,

(01:29:24):
not the plantations, but pine paddocks, paddocks filled with pine
not necessarily the best thing in the long run. Just
gone eighteen minutes away from seven nine to nine two,
the numbers of text will get to Gavin Gray in
the UK.

Speaker 1 (01:29:40):
Next, everything from SMEs to the big corporates, The Business
Hour with Ryan Bridge, and Mayor's Insurance and Investments, Grew
Your Wealth, Protect Your Future News Talks.

Speaker 3 (01:29:52):
V sixteen Away from seven News Talks, there'd be Gavin
Gray's our UK correspondent, Gavin Good evening, what does this
talk of nationalizing British steel?

Speaker 32 (01:30:04):
Well, we now know, of course that steel industries around
the world are those that aren't particularly booming are going
to struggle in this trade war. The UK is certainly
amongst those. British steel is actually owned by a Chinese
company here in the UK, and it was reported about
a week or so ago that the Chinese had stopped
importing the necessary ingredients, the raw materials to keep this

(01:30:27):
blast furnace going in scun Thopte, which is to the
east of England. In other words, if it runs out
of raw material within days, which is what's being reported,
the plant would simply shut down. And of course it
faces strong economic headwinds with those tariffs as well. So
the government here saying, look, if that is going to happen,
it was telling workers and unions we're going to step in,

(01:30:49):
and they are therefore considering nationalizing it. And it has
two blast furnaces in Scunthorpe. British Steel the company, and
there are fears that without government support or twenty seven
hundred jobs could go. They've been with this company, jing Ye,
in China since twenty twenty and jing Y says it's
invested roughly two and a half billion New Zealand dollars

(01:31:10):
into British Steel to maintain operations, but is suffering losses
of one and a half billion a day and so
substantial losses or seven hundred thousand pounds a day is
the loss, so it is a very very substantial fund.
The government has twice offered five hundred million pounds to
support a switch from blast furnaces to an electric type

(01:31:35):
of furnace, more environmentally friendly, and twice that's been rejected.
So yeah, very very fragile state of affairs in the
steel industry.

Speaker 3 (01:31:42):
Interesting given obviously the trade wills happening and there's a
campaign to buy British. Interesting that kirstam is saying now
I don't want a piece of that.

Speaker 2 (01:31:51):
Yeah, very odd.

Speaker 32 (01:31:52):
I don't know if that's because it was devised by
the Liberal Democrats, another party within parliament or not, but yeah,
it was very interesting that they say, Kirstarmer spokesperson saying,
we're an open trading nation, so we're not going to
tell people, quote where to buy their stuff.

Speaker 15 (01:32:09):
Well, all the.

Speaker 32 (01:32:10):
Liberal Democrats were suggesting is a promotional campaign to encourage
the public to see the British stickers on goods and
buy those instead of any alternatives. It seems a relatively
harmless thing to be asking and a good thing to
be doing, But it would appear the government's not going
that way. What I think we are perhaps going to
see is easier for small and medium sized British businesses

(01:32:35):
to bid for government contracts. And that's already a bit
of legislation in there from the previous government, but apparently
it's still very very difficult. Well I know that it's
extremely lengthy and difficult if you're a very very small business.
And so they are going to try and make this
easier for British businesses to bid for British work that
is of public sector nature.

Speaker 3 (01:32:56):
Interesting stuff. At least with all the doing and gloom
in the world, You've you've got some good news for us.
You're getting the UK getting a new Universal theme park.
Where's it going, Gevin?

Speaker 32 (01:33:06):
Yeah, in Bedford, which is about seventy eighty kilometers north
of London. It's on the site of a former brickworks.
Expected to generate twenty eight thousand jobs and open in
twenty thirty one, so it's a huge complex. It could
attract they reckon eight and a half million visitors in
its first year and generate one hundred billion New Zealand

(01:33:26):
dollars for the UK economy by twenty fifty five. Universal
Destinations and Experience say eighty percent of those employed in
the new jobs will be from the county and surrounding areas.
Universal of course has produced films like Minions and Wicked,
and it has a long list of theme parks. Of course,
the most famous is in Los Angeles and Orlando in

(01:33:47):
the US, but also in Osaka, Japan, in Singapore and Beijing.
So this would be the first Universal branded destination in Europe,
and I think this government is considering it's quite a
big win for right. As to all those promises of
jobs and numbers and figures, well, of course all these
things are projections, but certainly it's going to be a

(01:34:07):
very big provider just in its construction phase at the very.

Speaker 3 (01:34:11):
Least very cool. I'll definitely be heading along there, Gavin.
Thank you for that. Kevin Gray, a UK correspondent. It
is eleven away from seven News Talk ZB.

Speaker 1 (01:34:20):
It's the heather too for see Allen Drive Full Show
podcast on iHeartRadio powered by Newstalk ZBB.

Speaker 3 (01:34:27):
Oh, busy Old day, just gone nine minutes away from seven.
Busy Old day with Donald Trump and the tariffs coming
into force at four oh one pm our time. Ten
percent for US, twenty percent for the EU, one hundred
and four percent for the Chinese. Got a feel for them.
They reckon it could cut what could have the amount
that China exports to the United States. We have seen

(01:34:49):
the stocks settle down a little bit. I mean I
know that A six was down slightly. New Zealand was
down slightly, but over in the US they did finish
down slightly, though they did rarely to start the day.
The reason for the rally was that senior White House
people were going out there and saying, don't worry, deals
can be done, Deals will be done. And Scott Bessont,

(01:35:10):
who's the Treasury secretary, he said, these are the maximum
level of tariffs that you will see, and that implies
that they can come down right, and that implies negotiation,
and that implies that there will be some sort of
backdown and deal done. The whole crisis could be averted.
And Trump talked about a deal with South Korea. So
there is hope. There is hope out there, but perhaps

(01:35:30):
not confidence just yet that anything will change anytime soon.
Back here in little lot of New Zealand, one guess
about what Nikola Willis has been watching this week. She
used the time in the debating chamber of this Asternoon
to speak about, well, the White Lotus TV show.

Speaker 35 (01:35:46):
New Zealanders would be forgiven for wanting some light relief.
And so on Monday night, many of them will have
tuned in to the last episode of The White Lotus.
And when I gazed the images of that White Lotus
hotel there in Thailand, my mind drifted to.

Speaker 29 (01:36:06):
The Labor Party.

Speaker 3 (01:36:09):
Yes, she has been watching The White Lotus and she
just couldn't get Labor out of her head.

Speaker 35 (01:36:13):
Because, mister Speaker, there are very few entities which have
as many competing storylines as the White Lotus. But the
Labor parties competing storylines about its policy process and what
it wants to do to New Zealanders are perhaps as
manifold as they are in the White Lotos.

Speaker 3 (01:36:34):
She reckons, the next season of The White Loatus is
going to be made right here at home.

Speaker 35 (01:36:39):
Where will the next episode of The White Lotus take place?
Where will the next series be? Because we've had it
in Hawaii, we've had it in literally, we've had it
in Thailand. Well, I think it's time that our golden
paradise of New Zealand be the place for the next
series of The White Lotus. And I reckon I've picked
the location for it needs to be somewhere where there's

(01:37:02):
a villain who's prepared to take on others. It needs
to be somewhere where frenemies will come together. It needs
to be somewhere where a true battle can happen between
psychological forces. So I'm picking. I'm picking the place where
I reckon the real leadership and tax battle of the
Labor Party will happen. And that's the Waded Up. Because

(01:37:24):
let's just speaker, the Waded Upper. We have a man
called Kieran Maconolty. Sadly for him, although not the people
of the Wided Upp are no longer the local MP.

Speaker 3 (01:37:36):
What's got to do with Karen macinoalty. She lost me
a little bit at the end there. Anyway, That was
Nichola Willis in the house today. Obviously she's been watching binge,
watching too much White Lotus five away from seven.

Speaker 28 (01:37:47):
I'm sometimes relieved Ryan that we don't have filibusters in
the New Zealand Parliament, because that's what Nicola Lewis can
do with just a speech. I just dream to think
where some of them could take us on a twenty
five hours.

Speaker 3 (01:37:58):
It's a good point. Thank goodness, we are we're blessed.
Who are we going out to NS.

Speaker 28 (01:38:02):
Yeah, well, speaking of that, not super blessed in every respect, Ryan,
Abrik and Abra by Lady Gaga to play us out
tonight because she's announced her Mayhem Wild Tour than You
tour and support of the album. She's going to be
stopping in Australia, first time back in this part of
the world since twenty eleven. No New Zealand shows to
be seen unfortunately, so she is going to do December

(01:38:23):
fifth at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, December eighth, December ninth,
sorry at sun Corp Stadium in Brisbane, and then December
twelfth at Core Stadium in Sydney. All stadium shows, so
that might be our problem. But we do have a
couple of big stadiums in New Zealand and there are
a few days in between there, so hopefully our promoters
are on the phone tour and trying to make something happen.

Speaker 3 (01:38:41):
Now. I liked your optimism, but I highly doubt it
nts Lady Gaga to see us that to night. Thanks
for audio emails and your feedback. Appreciate Cinmo.

Speaker 34 (01:39:00):
Dot Down, afropropetrop.

Speaker 18 (01:39:30):
One Streak.

Speaker 2 (01:39:33):
After you.

Speaker 18 (01:39:42):
Sto you

Speaker 1 (01:40:26):
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio

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