Full Show Podcast: 10 April 2025

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Digging through the spin spens to find the real story.
Or it's Ryan Bridge on Heather dupless Ellen drive with
one New Zealand, let's get connected and News talks'b good afternoon.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
It is seven after four. News Talks heb David Seymour
and his bill as it gets bimmed and will keep
you across whatever happens in the house this afternoon. We
also speak to David Mahn. He's the guy that John
Key calls when he goes to China for analysis. Smart
guy Kiwi who's lived there for thirty years. His reaction
to the trade war between the Big two, Kerry McNulty's
sensible booze bill. We'll talk about that, plus who's to

(00:37):
blame for our mental kids and their phone addictions? TikTok
or you the parent Cryan Bridge Trump's tariff back down
if that's what you want to call it, and I
know there'll be many definitions, but that's what I'm calling It.
Proves that Nikola was right and Barbara yesterday was wrong.
Willis took the cool, calm, collected approach. Takes some advice.

(01:00):
Watch closely, don't react with haste, don't spook the horses,
even more. Trump's already doing that. Barbara Edmonds and Labor
were hitting the panic alarm yesterday afternoon, firing off a
press release. This is a crisis. We need to up spending,
read between the lines, borrow more. Bigger government will save
the day, which is of course nuts, premature and nuts.

(01:23):
Barbara came on this show last night and said Willis
was sitting on her hands while basically the world crumbled
around her. Earlier in the week, Hipkins said we needed
to stand up to Trump a bit more. How's that
working out for China. The last thing we need is
self serving politicians or former politicians in the form of
Phil goth grand standing for their bash the bully moment

(01:46):
on television. This is the time for quiet diplomacy. It's
time for your Winston's and your Rosemary Banks. She's our
ambassador to Washington. Get them out there. The bigger problem
for Labor and the way that they've so far reacted
is that it reminds us why we didn't like them
in the first place. When COVID hit, they doled out

(02:06):
the cash, couldn't get it out the door fast enough.
You know, stay home, save lives, do yoga. We'll pay
for your yoga mat grants spent from the country's purse
like a housewife on holiday, and barb she wants her
time with the visa. Right when our government dead is
about to hit forty six percent of GDP. Remember it

(02:27):
was twenty pre labor, right when we getting closer to
at least balancing the government books. This is a timely
reminder from labor that their fundamentals haven't changed. When a
crisis comes, when the storm clouds gather, their go to
plan is to make it.

Speaker 3 (02:44):
Rain, cash, cry and bridge nine.

Speaker 2 (02:47):
After four news talks, there'd be so investors you'd be
forgiven for complaining about whiplash. After this morning's huge U
turn from Donald Trump, markets around the world made huge
jumps this after Trump announced a ninety day free he's
for all announced tariffs except for China.

Speaker 4 (03:03):
Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit
out of line.

Speaker 5 (03:07):
They were getting yippie.

Speaker 4 (03:09):
You know, they're getting a little bit yippy, a little
bit afraid.

Speaker 2 (03:13):
Scott Shelby is a US market analyst with me now, Hi, Scott.

Speaker 6 (03:19):
Thanks for having me on. Looking forward to it. As
you can imagine, pretty busy day today.

Speaker 2 (03:25):
Tell me what you think false Trump's hand.

Speaker 6 (03:31):
Well, I think I think the Treasury Secretary is kind
of taking the lead role on this. Scott Passant. I
don't know if you know if Scott Passant, but he
used to work with George Soros and Stanley Drugger Miller,
the quantum fun guys. He's very, very smart. He's a
fantastic markets guy. And when he saw that tendor yields
fight this morning, like a lot of us, you know,

(03:51):
it was only a couple three days ago, but that
senior yield here was around three eighty five and then
spike close to well, I think the hive today was
four fifty one. And when he saw that, I think
then when he'd have yields spiking at the same time
a lot of volatility and equities and a lot of
volatility to the downside of equities, he run the risk
of breaking something. So I think that there was a

(04:12):
little bit of pressure there. A couple of days ago,
Best in Scott Best and our Turgury second, they flew
down to mar Lago from Washington and rode back in
Air Force one with Trump. I think he had his
ear for that one, and so I think there were
some There were some genuine moves on Trump's behalf that
I think we're planned. I think it's fair to say

(04:33):
that when he put the ten percent are ofstan but
he had much higher rates on some other countries, to
have them stand in line to try to do a
deal with them while he was still tariffing them is
not fair. So I think that that ninety day pauses
because of the amount of deals that he's going to
have to be cutting in the next ninety days from

(04:55):
you know, the reports are seventy five countries want to
want to cut a deal with them in some way,
so it's going to be hard to get to all
those people in a short period of time so they
wouldn't be hurt with tariff. So I think the ninety
day pauses so that he can get through the backlog
of countries. At least they said that they want to
do a deal. And I also think that he was

(05:18):
pretty masterful and putting China in a corner, so all
those things kind of played into it. You don't see
a lot of Peter and Navarral, you don't see a
lot of Howard lutt next week in the Commerce Secretary,
it's all Scott Passett and I think he's doing a
pretty good job with the president, and over the last
forty eight hours his stock is fine. For sure.

Speaker 2 (05:39):
Obviously, the yields go up when the price goes down.
Normally when there's chaos in the markets, people flood to
the treasuries, right to the bonds. There's talk that because
China owns about a third of the US government bonds,
that they weren't buying and that that might have had
some effect in terms of forcing Trump's hand. Do you
see that by that?

Speaker 6 (06:03):
There was a lot of rumors going around. I mean,
you know, hedge fund caught the wrong way, unwinding of
the carry trade, China trying to punish Trump, whether they're
selling end or not buying. It could have been a
number of things. But I also think that the yield
came in so quickly because there was so many people
rushing to save havens, that that's how the yield got

(06:24):
to three eighty five in the first place. So we
only kind of went back to where we were trading
in between say four fifteen and four thirty five, although
the high obviously it was four fifty. But I think
that bond market is bigger than the stock market. It's much.
It's so it's gonna be hard to manipulate it at all.
I mean maybe maybe maybe in the short rum a
little bit, but again, it's bigger than the stock market,

(06:46):
so the bond market's gonna be the bond market, regardless
of what people want to ascribe to it. I just
don't think that there was anything that farius going on there.
I just think it was a culmination of things.

Speaker 2 (06:58):
Trump posted on truth. This is a great time to buy?
Is that borderline inside of trading?

Speaker 6 (07:08):
You know what? They've been saying that for days though,
that's all you know that take it you look at
it in the snapshot of time of today, you might
be able to come up with something like that. No,
they've been saying that for days. I mean there's a
lot of folks that have been on the tape since
last Thursday saying this is an amazing, once for a

(07:29):
lifetime opportunity. So you could you know, it just so
happens that it was it was today that the market rally,
and it looks like he might have known something. But
again they've been saying that every day.

Speaker 2 (07:39):
What do you think happens from here? I mean ninety
days to cut deals with seventy five countries sounds quite ambitious.
So does he just keep extending this stay?

Speaker 6 (07:50):
I think it depends on how those deals go. But
I think that you know, as the news of these
settlements come out, you'll get more and more comfortable with
the market. I mean, we're not I don't think we're
going to have to go back through what we just
went through in ninety days time. If that's where you're
getting at. And at the same time, it's going to
be interesting to see how China handles the position that
they put themselves into. So you know, he's Trump generally

(08:13):
has some decent support. I think there was a risk
there that it went on. As long as people were
worried it was going to go on, he was going
to start to lose his own coalition, his own Republican support.
That might have been happening. There was talks of some
of some cracks in that coalition over the last few
days and the weekend. But I think I think that

(08:34):
the way things sit today that you know, if it
was all planned and this is what he wanted, he
did a pretty good job. And I think and I
think that it's also got to be given a little
bit of credit to Scott Best and are actually a
lot of cres credit to Scott Westmans. I think he
was also a big part of this. And I think
that tenure yield, combined with the stock market, combined with
the seventy five countries, combined with a lot of the

(08:55):
other things that have been playing into everything over the
last four or five days, this was a a pretty
good outcome.

Speaker 2 (09:01):
All right, Scott will leave it there, Thanks very much
for that analysis. That's US market analyst Scott Shalaty with
US just gone sixteen after four News TALKSB. This is
from Gen. Gen says, Ryan's serious question. When people say
Trump knows what he's doing, do they mean he's pretending
to be insane. It's not a dumb question to ask, Jenny.
I've got a good answer for you. Next time. I'll

(09:22):
also speak to Darcy.

Speaker 1 (09:24):
It's the Heather Dupers Allen Drive Full Show podcast on
iHeartRadio powered my News TALKSB.

Speaker 2 (09:31):
News Talks HEB. It is four nineteen, so the debate
is happening. Well, it's not much of a debate. Actually,
it's the second reading of the Treaty Principles Bill in Parliament.
It's going to get voted down. At the end of
this we're seven speeches of twelve, so about halfway there,
here's Paul Goldsmith saying they don't like this bill, but
the idea of debating the principles of the treaty not
a bad one.

Speaker 7 (09:51):
National opposes this bill, but we do not oppose the
open and frank discussion about the role of the Treaty
of and our laws and within the content text of
a modern democracy. That discussion is alive and well and
will continue. The critical thing is that we try our
best to conduct that conversation with good grace.

Speaker 2 (10:10):
There you go, that's Paul Goldsmith. We'll have more grab
for you throughout. Yeah, here's what just gone nineteen after four,
now Rich, here's Darcy with sport. Hey, Darcy get it made.
Now supercars normally you see them racing around topul Soon
we could see them in christ Church as well. Is
that the idea?

Speaker 8 (10:28):
That's the idea. I think some media outlets may have
possibly jumped the gun as far as confirming that. If
you go to the supercar website and they've basically said, look, yeah,
they've applied for it and we're looking at it, but
nothing's confirmed yet. We had a second race to Apuna

(10:48):
is a good place to have it. They thought maybe
down in Cromwell, there's a wonderful race track down there.
But the government don't really need to put any more
money into attracting people to Central Otago, right, They just don't,
whereas christ to be more interested in hosting it. The
victim has been Christs and topore is that it actually
has hotels and international airport and a few hundred thousand

(11:11):
people sitting right there pretty keen to go now. I
to opponent's fantastic track. It needs work done, needs money
invested in it. As far as grand stand should be temporary,
I'm sure, but pit Lane complex making sure it's up
to spec. So it's still under consideration. And I was
talked to Andre Homeguarny yesterday and he's like, yeah, look
we want it. We love it over here, you know.

Speaker 9 (11:33):
But it's not cheap for them though.

Speaker 2 (11:35):
It would be in addition to to there's going to.

Speaker 8 (11:38):
Be weekends you'd go there and then you'd flip down
there because they honestly amount of money it takes them
to ship.

Speaker 2 (11:44):
Over I can imagine tens and teens and.

Speaker 9 (11:46):
Teens and hundreds of tons of gear it little bit.

Speaker 8 (11:50):
Yeah, they don't want to go back and forth real,
so we hope so fingers crossed.

Speaker 2 (11:54):
And Joey Man, who's looking to tear up his contract
with the French club.

Speaker 8 (12:00):
Your contract, I'm interested although your previous life as a
TV broadcast. So they treated you.

Speaker 2 (12:07):
They ripped the contract quite well, didn't they.

Speaker 9 (12:09):
They don't mean anything anymore.

Speaker 2 (12:11):
Well, how can you rip up a contract? I mean
I suppose you could. You could walk away from a contract.
I could have walked away from a contract and probably
very little would happened to me. I just couldn't go
to a competitor.

Speaker 9 (12:20):
That you go.

Speaker 8 (12:22):
Jody is playing over in Japan at the moment because
he walked away from the Roosters. He's a key internationals.
Fantastic play when over there. I go at rugby union.
He's over in a toy of a blitz at the moment,
playing over there. And then he signed a contract with
Russing ninety two to go and play within the French League.
And it's reported now and he's like, oh, I don't
want to go anymore, don't like it, citing family reasons,

(12:45):
which is always a backstop for any excuse because no
one questions that not saying there are not family reasons,
but you'd think before signing a contract.

Speaker 10 (12:54):
To do it.

Speaker 8 (12:54):
But at due diligence and realize, yeah, you can't be
away from Australia and he's in for quite some time.
You are that you might want to ask a few questions.
I don't know, things may have changed, but the memorandums
of understanding it's.

Speaker 2 (13:07):
A you can tee, that's not a contour they can
well yeah, okay, but what do you who are you
doing on this tonight, Darcy?

Speaker 9 (13:15):
I'm not touching that. I'm talking about the.

Speaker 8 (13:17):
Well why are we super rug well because it's a
kind of cool story, the super Rugby opicky tonight. We're
talking about that fine which is it's at seven o'clock
at Eton Part on a Saturday night. That is prime
Super Rugby Fursday. The problem is the Highland is also
playing at the same time, so how that scheduling walk is?
What's except through.

Speaker 2 (13:38):
After We will see you at seven Get Out four
twenty three News Talks.

Speaker 1 (13:43):
Heap Moving the Big Stories of the Day four when
it's Ryan Bridge on Hither Duper c Allen Drive with
One New Zealand let's get connected news talks.

Speaker 2 (13:54):
He'd be good afternoon. It is four twenty five. The
debate's still going on at Parliament. We've had a couple
of speeches, this one from Casey Costello on the Treaty
Principal's Bill that's about to get binned and what sorry
here she.

Speaker 11 (14:07):
Goes, and what would the courts do with this legislation.
It is plain wrong to take the responsibility of determining
the role of tatidity or whites hangey from the highest
court in the land to the judiciary, which would have
been the outcome of this bill.

Speaker 2 (14:26):
And from the Greens, woo whoop, it's time of the poor.

Speaker 12 (14:29):
We still have a government that is willing to use
our money as a.

Speaker 13 (14:32):
Cheap bargaining tool.

Speaker 12 (14:34):
Despite what the New Zealand first Member has just told us.
They are the ones that want to remove twenty eight
General Treaty clauses across legislation. That is disgraceful.

Speaker 2 (14:46):
There you go, it's continuing. We're up to eight out
of twelve. Speech is done and dusted, and then the
thing is going to get put in the bin and
we'll tell you what happens once the vote has taken
place as well. Nine nine two is the number to text.
Lots more to come after five, we're gonna speak to
He's probably the most well read man on China, most
well read Kiwi man on China living in Beijing. At

(15:10):
the moment, David Mahn is going to speak to us
about the tussle between mum and dad. There are two
big trading partners for goods, China and the US. And
sure the rest of us have kind of gotten off
the hook with the terraffs, but not China. But what
does that mean for the kids. We'll talk about that
up to five News.

Speaker 1 (15:28):
Talks recapping the day's big news and making tomorrow's headlines.
It's Ryan Bridge on hither dup c Allen Drive with
one New Zealand let's get connected news talks.

Speaker 3 (15:44):
They'd be Je said, Hi, nice to meet you two.

Speaker 14 (15:49):
Hi.

Speaker 15 (15:49):
Maybe Google does get up up Good afternoon.

Speaker 2 (15:53):
It is twenty five away from five's news talks. They'd
be Barry Soper is tuned into Parliament and will report
to us as in about fifteen minutes from now. Did
you see this story this morning? The bus driving on
the wrong side of the road in Wellington? Not commenting
on that in particular. But I have noticed a trend
where the roads are getting so narrow they've got nowhere

(16:16):
else to go. I was driving home last night, and
I drive up a hill and there's two lanes, and
you can never fit into the right hand lane if
there's a bus in the left hand lane, which there
often is, because there's obviously one going when I leave
work at that time. But have you noticed this too?
They are just getting so narrow that it started with
car parks. You know, you'd see some poor pregnant woman

(16:36):
trying to get out of a car park. You can't
even open your door these days, they're so close together.
Now they've moved from car parks to actual roads. They
are so narrow you can't drive on them and a car,
let alone a bus. So I actually feel sorry for
the bus drivers because they've got nowhere else to go.
It's the people making the roads. It's the councils that
we can hate on, and hate we will, and because

(16:59):
the reason they have to be so narrow, of course,
is that they've got a cycle lane, and then they've
got a footpath, and then I've got a lane for
I don't know, dog walkers, and you know, every man
and his dog has a lane except cars, which is
what the road was made for.

Speaker 1 (17:17):
It's the world wires on news dogs, they'd be drive.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
China now placing one hundred and twenty five percent. Thank
you Trump. Scott Vesant, he's the Treasury secretary, says, Trump's
got Beijing right where he wants them.

Speaker 16 (17:29):
This was his strategy along and that you know, you
might even say that he go to China into a
bad position. They responded, they have shown themselves to the
world to be the bad actors.

Speaker 2 (17:44):
Now Penny Wong out of Australia, she's the foreign minister.
She reckons he might be another explanation for why Trump
has hit pause on the tariff.

Speaker 17 (17:51):
As a consequence of what has occurred on the financial
markets in the stock market. Obviously, the president has made
a decision to pause the tariff cities imposed on most
other countries.

Speaker 2 (18:04):
She's right, it was the bonds that did it. Finally,
this afternoon, the Chinese restaurant in Madrid has been shut
down because it's roast duck. Wasn't really duck? Or where's
the story going? Ants? Where's the story? Turns out the
restaurant had been sneakily grabbing pigeons off the street, cooking
them and passing them off as duck. Police rated the

(18:26):
restaurant found a hidden of this is So Dark. Found
a hidden room containing plucked pigeons, meat drying on clothing racks,
and a lot of cock croaches. Restaurant has four stars
on Google and shows you how reliable those things are.
Three and a half on trip Advisor. I guess some
people like the taste of pigeons.

Speaker 1 (18:48):
International correspondence with ends in eye Insurance Peace of mind
for New Zealand business make.

Speaker 2 (18:54):
Murray Olds in Australia Murray good afternoon, you go yeah, good,
thank you. Guys have had a good today.

Speaker 6 (19:01):
Yeah.

Speaker 14 (19:02):
Literally minutes after they opened ten am Australian time, Eastern time,
midday New Zealand time, and literally in minutes the Australian
sock market up six percent in that.

Speaker 10 (19:12):
Very very early trade.

Speaker 14 (19:14):
I mean they must have been there this morning having
their weekbeaks, the traders looking what's happening in Washington and thought, boody,
hell I been he go into work this morning on
time because.

Speaker 10 (19:23):
It was all it was all hands on deck.

Speaker 14 (19:26):
Up six percent in early trade. The ASX, the Australian
dollar up as well. Last time I looked, Australian iron
ore was up two and a half two point two percent.
I beg your pardon, which is great if China is
still going to be able to afford to buy Australia's
iron ore because of course the baseline tariff that Trump
is now imposing worldwide ten percent of Australia was already at

(19:49):
that mark. So ten percent for the rest of the
world for ninety days, but heaven's above one hundred and
twenty five percent on China. So what does that mean
for Australia, Because that's the big over here Australia. I
big your pardner China by far Australia's biggest trading partner.
Just the lawnmous volumes in Australia's favor here that Australia

(20:12):
sells up into China, a massive market. So economists now
over here calling on the Reserve Bank of Australia to
cut the cash rate. Now they're not scheddled to meet
again until next month, so they want an emergency meeting
of the RBA. They want a half percent cup now,
half percent next month or if they're not going to

(20:32):
do that meet next month and give us half of
one percent. So it really is that they are now
calling for a mega rate cut. They're saying Ryan, not
zero point twenty five, but they won half a percent
cut next time the bank meets, unless they meet tomorrow,
and that's not going to happen.

Speaker 10 (20:50):
So it really is. It's kind of like you wake
up this morning of what the hell's going on because
the world had changed overnight, and look there are people
growing wine, people growing beef, people growing wheat, people digging
up cole and I or they just don't know what's
going to happen tomorrow.

Speaker 2 (21:07):
No, none of us do, do we The most sleep
we get is when he's sleeping. I have found now Australia,
this is interesting. So Beijing has come to Canber and said, look,
let's jointly oppose Trump, and Elbow is actually resisting this.

Speaker 14 (21:24):
Look an intriguing cheeky you might say. The Chinese ambassador
to Australia very well spoken, very well regarded. I believe
he wrote an op ed piece for the nine newspapers
that is the Fen Review, the City Morning Herald and
the Age newspaper in Melbourne. And as you say, he
said there was an invitation from Beijing to Australia to quote,

(21:48):
join hands with Beijing to resist Donald Trump. We should
be in solidarity with Beijing. And as you say, the
Prime Minister here, Anthony Alberanezi, brushed that off.

Speaker 10 (21:59):
We'll speak for our elves, he said.

Speaker 14 (22:01):
The trade relationship, he was very quick to point out though,
is vitally important for Australia. It does represent and I
hadn't heard this step before before Albanezi mentioned this today. Ryan,
the trade with China, this is very important. It represents
one in four jobs in Australia. That's a huge number.
That's a big, big number. One in four jobs are

(22:23):
directly linked to Australia's trade with China, by far our
biggest trading partner. And so what happens to China, not
just the US, what happens to China materially affects Australia.

Speaker 2 (22:33):
Absolutely. We will the same tightrope you guys to trying
to balance those two interests. Murray, thank yous for that.
Great to have you on as the worst Murray, El's
our Australia correspondent. It is eighteen minutes away from five.
David Mahn who's our guest after five this evening. He's
a key we living in China. He's very smart on
an investment, very smart on business in China, and very
smart on the CCP as well. So he has a

(22:56):
really interesting take on how we should behave. We don't
want to do fel GoF. We don't want to do
a Malcolm Turnbull, do we?

Speaker 1 (23:05):
So?

Speaker 2 (23:05):
How what line do we walk to make sure that
we don't alienate China? In sucking up to Trump eighteen
to five Bearing Necks.

Speaker 1 (23:15):
Politics was centrics, credit, check your customers and get payments certainty.

Speaker 2 (23:19):
Acording to five News talks, he'd be so the Treaty
debate at Parliament, the second reading here is Woody Jackson
getting kicked out.

Speaker 5 (23:25):
Oh there, I don't see more.

Speaker 18 (23:27):
You're a disgrace to this house.

Speaker 19 (23:29):
And when it comes to the Treaty of White Tongue,
you will and always be a liar, killed a mister speaker.

Speaker 2 (23:37):
Leader, predictable lead, predictable, predictable, liar, barry. And he did
it last time.

Speaker 20 (23:45):
He did it last time.

Speaker 9 (23:46):
I knew exactly what he was doing.

Speaker 20 (23:48):
He made his speech and then knew that he'd be
thrown out and I've got to say, I've been watching
the debate all through it, and it got off to
the treaty Principal's bill got off to a probably a
predictable start.

Speaker 13 (24:01):
Have listen, mister Speaker, members of this House.

Speaker 2 (24:04):
Can still change their minds.

Speaker 7 (24:08):
Hold where are.

Speaker 21 (24:12):
The police helping us with this? Let me make it
very clear anyone else in here thinks that that's an
acceptable intervention and the activities of this Parliament will be
treated parshly by the officers of the law who are
here completely unacceptable. We live in a democracy. This is
the place where opinions are given, not from the gallery.

Speaker 5 (24:36):
So there I have.

Speaker 2 (24:37):
Jerry was not a happy man at all when he
needs these officers of the lord. Does he mean police?

Speaker 3 (24:42):
Yeah?

Speaker 20 (24:43):
Where where are the cops at the start? It took
a while to get there to throw this guy out,
But look was on from that relative silence, I've got
to say, because Jerry was so hosed off, the people
had been warned, So it was in relative silence that
David Seymour was allowed to have us.

Speaker 13 (25:00):
Brothers argue that maybe Parliament can make laws, but not
this law. What they're really saying is our constitutional future
can be decided by the unelected, but not the elected,
and certainly not the people in a referendum. Those are
the fundamentally undemocratic propositions. Anyone opposing this bill is really
signing up to that they do not trust the New

(25:21):
Zealand people to determine their constitutional future.

Speaker 2 (25:24):
And I'm so.

Speaker 13 (25:25):
Proud to stand for the one party in this House
that most certainly.

Speaker 20 (25:28):
Does That was the Act Party. Yeah, we'll let pell
on deaf ears. When it came to Chris Hopkins.

Speaker 19 (25:35):
Te hey, moldy older, mister Speaker. Normally, when I rise
in this House to speak on a bill, I say
it's a great privilege to speak on the bill. That
is not the case today. This is a grubby little
bill born of a grubby little deal that has had
a colossal.

Speaker 21 (25:54):
Excuse me, I'll make it clear just once the gallery
do not interfere the act of his Parliament. Another outboost
like that will clear the galleries. Everyone will be going. They'reright,
honorable Crucificans.

Speaker 19 (26:05):
It has had a colossal impact on the fabric of
our nation and this bill will forever be a stain
on our country.

Speaker 20 (26:14):
Oh, for goodness sake. Then it was the Young Mali
Party mp who caused an uproar when the Treaty's Bill
you remember was introduced. Hannah raffitimp Clark by ripping it
up and leading a hakka. She was the Mari Parties,
as I say, the first speaker. She shared her time

(26:35):
speaking interestingly with the Greens. Tamotha pool here they are the.

Speaker 22 (26:39):
Real problem is that this institution, this House, has only
ever recognized one partner, one culture, one language, from one treaty.
When will the rules of this House acknowledge the laws
of this land tikanga anti tennaty or white singing. This
bill hasn't been stopped. This bill has been absolutely annihilated.

Speaker 12 (27:00):
That little man does not represent your views. Shoulder to
you and to ee. The fight is not over. Despite
their crocodile tears, we still have a government that is
willing to use our mona as a cheap bargaining tool.

Speaker 20 (27:15):
See the Greens obviously are still embracing Tabitha Paul. She
was that one that said that little Man does not
represent our view. She was pointing, of course, at David Seymour.
So look it god all quite nasty, and we knew
the outcome. It hasn't I think the twelfth speech is
being heard as we speak at the moment. I will

(27:35):
guarantee it you'll see a huka from the Maldi party
that doesn't have been waiting on, but it's it'll be
whilst we're on air at the moment, probably or shortly
thereafter that the bill will be wrapped up and gone.

Speaker 2 (27:47):
I'm surprisedly what she wasn't pulled up for calling him
a little man, because it was.

Speaker 20 (27:52):
Not only an honorable little man.

Speaker 2 (27:54):
Exactly right. Barry Luxon was speaking today, he did, well,
how did a press conference after you this speech on
trade to the Valentin Chamber of Commerce, and he's talking about,
you know, the regional leaders coming together.

Speaker 20 (28:04):
Look, that's the way they've got to I've got to
band together if you like. But he was also talking
about the European Union. And because I've made noises about
the cp TPPA, that's the Comprehensive trans Tasman Partnership Agreement.
New Zealand of course was one of the originals, the

(28:26):
four originals that began that process. And you're remember it
was extended by the Canadians that put comprehensive progressive. Interestingly,
it was extended by the Canadians after Donald Trump, I
reckon had a hand in it. When Justin Trudeau was
in Vietnam, I was there as well, and Justin Trudeau

(28:48):
was about to sign it with the rest of the
countries backed away, you'll remember, and then all hell broke loosen,
it broke apart, and Donald Trump, I reckon was pulling
the strings.

Speaker 14 (28:58):
Then.

Speaker 20 (28:59):
Obviously Youropean Union is the biggest target for us to
include in that agreement, and that's the area of the
primer is to see as he will be pushing for.

Speaker 23 (29:08):
That'll be ultimate decision for the EU, and it does
require ratification process, as you will wear, it's quite slow.
What I'm looking for is actually, how can we bind
as many countries as possible at these countries that are
already you know you looking at the CPTPP, how do
we go For example, UK is still requiring ratification from
Canada and from Mexico, So how do we speed that
up and get them fully into the system.

Speaker 20 (29:28):
So it's a long process, but we're really what we've
got to do is turn our backs on America. Who know,
it's the biggest economy in the world. It's hard to
do it.

Speaker 2 (29:37):
You can't do that they're a second largest trading partner. Well,
that's right, we just have to just ride the wave. Well,
if we're in a small player, very fly.

Speaker 20 (29:46):
On the are absolutely, But the CPTPPA that is an
avenue where you're going to have a big trading block
because don't forget the Europeans. You got fifty seven countries there.

Speaker 2 (29:57):
Yeah, but remember we've already got a free trade deer
with the E We've already got one with the UK.
So adding the UK or the EU to the CTP
T P P PIP won't actually benefit us, you know, directly,
but it might. I suppose if you make the block bigger,
then you get in direct benefits from it. So I
can see the logic of what he's saying.

Speaker 20 (30:15):
He's been talking to them all day to day. Hasn't
been in the house.

Speaker 21 (30:18):
For the.

Speaker 2 (30:20):
I suppose you had to have something to do, didn't. Yeah, Hey, Barry,
thanks for that. You've been right across. I appreciate you.
You're analysis eight minutes away from five news talk, said Big, putting.

Speaker 3 (30:31):
The time questions to the newspeakers the mic, asking.

Speaker 24 (30:35):
Breakfast Finance Minister Nikola Willison. I was watching Trump's speak
to some party faithfully said, everyone's ringing up kissing his ass.
So we one of the people kissing is ask well.

Speaker 25 (30:43):
Look our diplomats in Washington speaking with the US counterparts.

Speaker 24 (30:48):
When you talk or they talk to the administration, do
they come back to you with any level of clarity
that makes sense?

Speaker 3 (30:55):
Well?

Speaker 25 (30:55):
Uncertainly is because this is a significant global economic and
as the finance mister, I need to keep on top
of what's happening, implications for New Zealand and so far
very much our view as we should stay the course.

Speaker 24 (31:09):
Back tomorrow at six am the Mike Hosking Breakfast with
the rain drover of the last news Talk ZEBB.

Speaker 2 (31:15):
It is five to five on Newstalk ZEBB. So the
sumo wrestlers are going at it in China and the
United States. And here's the thing about this. Trump has,
for want of a better word, caved to the bond
markets on global tariffs. He's did up ninety day freeze
on and lowered to ten percent, so we're all on
ten percent except China. Now, to save faith, he's having

(31:37):
to double down on China, which makes it harder for
him to back down on his last remaining target. So
what you've got is a battle between a battle of
wills between Hi Jinping and Donald Trump and Donald Trump
with no other targets in sight but China. So it's
not looking good, is it. And if what David Marnin,

(31:58):
who's on the show after five said is to be believed,
China's not backing down either. And let's not forget that
China is the US's third largest partner, but the US
it's China's first trading first biggest trading partner. Anyway, Chris
Luxen wades in today he says, look, I'm going to
talk free trade with all of our regional partners, etc.

(32:19):
But I don't know whether someone didn't tell Winston that
that's what he was going to say, or whether Winston
just doesn't think it's a good idea. But they don't
appear to be on the same page.

Speaker 10 (32:28):
This is all very premature.

Speaker 3 (32:30):
It's premature.

Speaker 26 (32:31):
Well, I was very well, David Parker wrote the dum
thing for to sake, I think it's premature. Well, look,
and we're trying to sort out this other thing with
America and China's trade war, and we're rushing off the solutions.

Speaker 6 (32:42):
That's fine. Up what happened there first.

Speaker 2 (32:45):
And he's got a point, isn't he. But it's a
bit of a could to be talking over your boss
like that coming up to five o'clock news talks, there'd
be we're in China.

Speaker 1 (32:52):
Next, Questions, answers, facts, analysis, the drive show you trust

(33:20):
for the full picture? Brian Bridge on Heather Duplicy Alan
Drive with one New Zealand let's get connected news talks.

Speaker 2 (33:27):
That'd be good evening the seven after five news talks,
there'd be So the Treaty Principal's Bill is officially dead
on its second reading.

Speaker 21 (33:35):
The eyes are eleven, the nose one hundred and twelve.
The motion is lost.

Speaker 2 (33:43):
David Semols, the Act Party leader of the Architect of
the Billies with us now, David good evening, Get it run.
How do you feel.

Speaker 27 (33:51):
Pretty good?

Speaker 28 (33:52):
I don't think anyone else, frankly, would have had the
courage to put this agenda on the table. And after
listening I I stayed and I listened to every single
word of the opposition speeches, and not one of them
could explain why they don't think Parliament should be able
to make laws, which is the first principle I propose,

(34:13):
why they don't think that the Crown should commit to
upholding Maori rights but also upholding everyone else's rights too,
or why they don't think every person should be equal
before the law. So as far as the debate goes,
there are three principles proposed and mandaries of speakers actually

(34:35):
spoke about what's in the bill or why they disagree
with it. Now that, on the other hand, depresses me
somewhat for the somewhat for the future of our country
if this is our parliament.

Speaker 2 (34:45):
But hey, what's next? What do you do with the
bill now?

Speaker 28 (34:50):
Well, the basic commitment that act has to equal rights
for all kiwis before the law. That stays because that
is a universal truth. As the election approaches, we will
lay out exactly how we're going to do that tactically.
I think it's fair to say that as we think
about all of this, we'll be asking how do we

(35:13):
get more people on board for that truth? Because right
now we've got a country where a large minority of
people genuinely believe that we should be ranked by the
arrival time of our ancestors, and I don't think that
that is healthy for the future of our country.

Speaker 2 (35:29):
Will you make a referendum a bottom line and a
coalition discussion. Is that how you do it?

Speaker 28 (35:35):
That is absolutely a possibility. We wouldn't rule that out,
because sooner or later, the logic of this bill is
going to prevail New Zealanders our equal. The treaty does
actually give us the provision to be equal. It's just
been hijacked by a whole lot of people, mainly in
the courts and the White Tongue Tribunal and the bureaucracy,
who don't seem to see how serious this is.

Speaker 2 (35:56):
All right, David, appreciate your time tonight. David seymo Or,
the act party leader, the architect of the treaty principles
build voted down on second reading in the House ten
minutes ago, nine after five, Ryan Bridge, right now, Chinese
goods one hundred and twenty five percent tariff when they
reached the US border. US goods eighty four percent of
the Chinese border. It's a high stakes game of who
blinks first of chicken between these two superpowers. Trump says

(36:20):
won't be him.

Speaker 27 (36:21):
China wants to make a deal.

Speaker 1 (36:22):
They just don't know how quite to go about it.

Speaker 5 (36:24):
You know, it's one of those things that don't know quite.

Speaker 9 (36:27):
They're proud people President.

Speaker 5 (36:29):
She's a proud man.

Speaker 4 (36:30):
I know him very well, and they don't know quite
how to go about it, but they'll figure it out.
In the process of figuring it out, but they want
to make a deal.

Speaker 2 (36:38):
David Man is a New Zealander who's been investing in
China for more than thirty years. He's with us from
Shanghai this evening.

Speaker 29 (36:43):
David, Hello, Hello Ryan.

Speaker 2 (36:46):
What do you think the chances are of China blinking first?

Speaker 29 (36:53):
Well, Trump's already blinked on all the other tariffs that
he's flung at countries quite randomly, So I don't see
this is an economic argument. You know, reciprocal tariffs really
are another form of self injury. But once you get
beyond twenty or thirty percent against you, what else is
piled on doesn't really count. The whole thing is a

(37:15):
political push against China. So I think China's response to
date has been correct. It is reciprocated without escalation, and
it is going to sit tight. It is nothing to
gain by giving in.

Speaker 2 (37:29):
So you're saying, whether it's thirty percent, forty percent, fifty percent,
or one hundred and twenty five. Once you reach a
certain point, what you just start sending your goods elsewhere.

Speaker 29 (37:39):
Exactly. And China has been I guess, Trump proofing its
economy to some extent since his first term as president,
And in fact, Biden was a more efficient opponent against
China on trade in terms of applying power of surgically
blocking technology to China. But China expanded its share of

(38:04):
global manufacturing and trade over those eight years. So the
time we come to the second trunk term, China's already
diversified considerably. This will hurt the American Market's an important market,
But China is, apart from the eleven coastal provinces, are
developing country, and there are surges and downturns and sectors

(38:26):
all the time.

Speaker 3 (38:27):
Factories close.

Speaker 29 (38:28):
It happened throughout the ev sector. As they got to
the point of being able to produce great cars, there
was a cost of that and many fell by the wayside.
So this is a country that is accustomed to being
buffeted by such things. And it's the only counter is
any partner, a trade partner that America has that as
an internal economy that's large enough and comprehensive enough that

(38:53):
that can be its engine and that can carry it
through It's not as vulnerable as the other Southeast Asian
countries are.

Speaker 2 (39:00):
David, what does New Zealand do in a situation like this?
You know China better than anyone in this country. What
does New Zealand What should our line be so that
we don't I mean, obviously we want to suck up
to Trump get the best deal we can, but we
don't want to alienate China. It's our biggest trading partner.
It's number one and number two, so a lot on
the line for us.

Speaker 29 (39:19):
I think we have a good history and you always
hear that every round of political cycle moves, we get
a new government and they've got bigger challenges of the
previous ones, which I don't agree with. I think there's
something which it's just a truism helping Clark's administration. John

(39:39):
Keebill English's administration was very good at managing the China
relationship with the America relationship by not reacting to either,
by basically maintaining our non alige status, which doesn't mean
we suck up to anybody. And we did deals, and
we did deals as a country with little agency, but
we're respect that when we were in that position. I

(40:02):
think it's been confused in recent months under the current government,
but I see the language from Wellington in the last
I say, two months has been pretty sensible. So I
think that we have a government and a national party
can look back on its predecessor administration, learn from that,
take advice from that, and we don't need to reciprocate.

(40:26):
We've had a tariff slapped on us. Whatever we do next,
it's at this level we'll only hurt the New Zealand
economy further. I think we just have to accept this
for the time being, not out of weakness, but just
patiently watch because Trump is so volatile and he is
so unaware. I mean, listen to the tone of his
language talking to China like a child that can't understand

(40:50):
how to deal with trade negotiations. This five thousand year
old culture, this extraordinary economy that's pulled itself out of
poverty in forty years, which would have taken two hundred
for another country. These guys know what they're doing. They
have tremendous endurance and oddly, the lack of support the

(41:10):
government suffered post COVID and failed to recover in the
last two years because of a slightly flatter a significantly
flat of a normal economy. We've seen our galvanization within
China around the government, and people are quite sanguine and
there's a determination, partly a defiance, that they'll make their

(41:32):
way through this. So I think New Zealand, as small
as we are and as little political agency as we have,
we should also not choose to act immediately and be patient.

Speaker 3 (41:45):
Just watch Watson.

Speaker 2 (41:46):
Wait, David, appreciate your time. David manchief executive at Man
China Investment Management. It is quarter past five year on
News Talk, said B coming up next. TikTok's been at
Parliament basically pointing the finger at you. If you're a parent.
They've been saying, hey, your kid been glued to a
phone all day. Is not our fault, it's your fault.
Plus we look at Bill Gates, the inheritance he's giving

(42:08):
his kids. All ahead News Talk CREB. It is five
to eighteen Ryan, I sincerely hope David's you can imagine
the text machine's gone nuts since we had David Cymour
on just saying that he will consider They are considering
taking the Treaty Principal's Bill, which has just been voted down,
taking that issue as a referendum, a bottom line and
any coalition agreement they might sign after the next election.

(42:31):
Ran I sincerely hope David Seymour takes the Treaty Bill
to the election as an absolute bottom line. I so
admire his courage and will never vote for National after
this Sham, I suspect act will be having a much
large as say next time round. That's from John. It's
just gone nineteen after five ran Bridge. TikTok's been at
Parliament today. They obviously don't want to be regulated no media,
well no company generally wants to be regulated, but particularly

(42:52):
not TikTok. So what they did is commission research from
Toolbrook Mills and they found that only one in three
parents have rules for their children around social media, which
is interesting because you hear parents say all the time,
well my kids, you know, turn into a zombie because
they're on their phone all the time. Well, actually, do
we have the rules in place? Makes sense. As an

(43:14):
advocacy group for children online safety co found a Hollybrookers
with me now, Holly, good evening, good evening, Good to
have you here. Are you surprised to hear that number?

Speaker 30 (43:24):
Oh yeah, yeah, I am surprised to hear that number.
It doesn't it doesn't really reflect what is happening for
our parents and for our young people.

Speaker 2 (43:33):
So you think the number is wrong.

Speaker 30 (43:35):
So I'm really sorry, but can you repeat the sorry
you said?

Speaker 4 (43:42):
I actually got a bit.

Speaker 21 (43:43):
Mud of that.

Speaker 2 (43:43):
One in three parents have rules around their children's social
media in place. This is what according to the tool
bott Mills. So so, in other words, two thirds of
parents potentially don't have rules.

Speaker 30 (43:55):
AA oh yeah, yeah, yeah, sorry, yeah, I mean, I
think that this is an area that parents are really
struggling with, and parents, you know, and that your education
work that I do, parents are really struggling to keep
up and to put boundaries in place because there's so
many platforms and where you know, we're really encouraged parents
to use prind or controls and put boundaries in place,
but it is hard to implement that on across many

(44:18):
different platforms and devices. And often, you know, parents actually
aren't that aware of what their kids are doing online.
And you know, I have many stories appearances principles talking
to me and saying appearances don't actually think their kids
are on social media, and they find out that they
are when something unfolds with students at school. So you know,

(44:38):
it's you've got to take these these types of results
with the grain of salt.

Speaker 2 (44:43):
But isn't that I mean, can you as a parent
pleaded naivety? You know, isn't it your job to know
what you're especially if they're eleven, twelve, thirteen, I mean,
they're the biggest liars under the sun, you know, is
it your job to know?

Speaker 30 (44:56):
Yeah? I think, you know, it's really important that as
parents we step up and that we engage with the
with what's happening online, with conversations with our kids, and
we actually understand what's happening in the space. But to date,
there hasn't been a lot of conversation around the harms
that are happening online for our young people. And it's
great that we're kind of really starting to have some good,

(45:18):
robust conversations about that. But in saying that, where many
years behind the rest of the world in terms of
many countries around the world, I should say, in terms
of actually putting any kind of systemic kind of measures
in place to manage this. But you know, it is
a printal responsibility, but it's also bigger than that. It's
it's really difficult for parents to manage tech, and it's exploded,

(45:40):
you know, with normalized giving our kids' phones very young
and giving them access to everything on the internet, and
we do need to scale that back, but I do
think that we need more support from a kind of
regulatory approach.

Speaker 2 (45:51):
But both Holly, thank you for that. Hollybrooker makes sense,
co founder on TikTok, heading to Parliament today. Twenty two
minutes after five Brian speaking of parents, if you had
to switch your parent out for anyone, it would be
Bill Gates, wouldn't it for no other reason than the inheritance.
So Bill Gates has come out and said he will.
He's revealed to everybody what he's going to give his

(46:13):
kids because of you know, everyone kind of wants to know,
and he's come out and he said, don't worry, I'm
not going to be one of those people who creates
a family dynasty. You know, with my fortune handed down
to all my kids, I'm only giving them less than
one percent. He said. My kid's got a great upbringing
and education, but less than one percent of the total
wealth because I decided it wouldn't be a favor to them.

(46:35):
Before you feel sorry for these poor, hard done by
ill treated children. Bill Gates' wealth is currently estimated to
be one hundred and two billion US dollars right This
is according to Ford, So one percent is just one
billion dollars divided by three kids. Not a bad payday,
Not a bad pay day at all. Twenty three after
five Newstalk, sa'd.

Speaker 3 (46:54):
Be informed inside into today's issues.

Speaker 1 (46:58):
It's Ryan Bridge on Heather Duplicy Ellen drive with one
New Zealand let's get connected news talks.

Speaker 2 (47:05):
They'd be five.

Speaker 9 (47:06):
Twenty six.

Speaker 2 (47:07):
There's an annoying thing happening in politics at the moment.
And I've watched politics my whole life and I love it,
but because of the debates and the ideas and the arguments.
But politicians are collecting hundreds of thousands of dollars from
US taxpayers and ratepayers as well, and they aren't turning
up to work, or when they do turn up, they
come with wackadoo ideas they've picked up on TikTok. A

(47:29):
Gibsbane Council is the latest one in the news today.
Nick Tupater is his name, paid forty thousand dollars a year.
Since October. He's been attending forty one percent of meetings.
Terrible number. He's not there more than he is there now.
Usually most kiwis, most good, hard working kiwis, like the
rest of us, would feel shame if they had a

(47:51):
record like that. They'd be embarrassed, but apologized, apologized to us.
They'd make it right. Not this counselor. He blamed every
one but himself. He said he didn't understand why it
was such an issue. He said he was still technically
within the rules. Who cares? He said the council needed
to take responsibility, not him. The council needed to take

(48:13):
responsibility because of quote, technical problems notifying members there would
be a meeting. Come on, the dog ate my homework.
This doesn't stack up, of course, why because the rest
of the council has managed to make it to eighty
percent of the meetings, So why couldn't he and why
can't he take responsibility? Same goes for the Greens. You

(48:34):
break the rules, you break the law, you shout in
somebody's face, you grab a constituent by the arm in
the park. You're not a thug, you're not a crook,
You're a victim. You're in Parliament to be your authentic self.
Remember you're speaking your truth and you can do no wrong.
The multi party MP seats are regularly empty in the house.

(48:55):
Debbie took off for a holiday and the cooks the
other month with her husband on a sitting week. And
remember the house only sits for ninety days a year,
ninety days out of three hundred and sixty five. Unless
there's a TikTok moment to be had, there's nowhere to
be seen. It's annoying, it's expensive, and people are sick

(49:16):
of it. Worst of all, for the rest of us,
it's very difficult to have a true contest of ideas
with an empty chair.

Speaker 3 (49:24):
Bryan Bridge twenty.

Speaker 2 (49:26):
Eight, after five News Talks, he'd be this textas says Ryan,
parents are happy to give their kids an iPad for
sanity at a very early age. Of course, they have
responsibility for looking after their kids online. I agree with that.
Thing is it's easy for me to say because I
don't have kids, so I blame you parents. Anyway, we'll
be back with the huddle afternoons News Talks.

Speaker 5 (49:46):
Hed b fvedays we can go forever till you lasted
it out.

Speaker 3 (49:57):
On the iHeart app and in your car, on your
drive home.

Speaker 1 (50:01):
It's Ryan Bridge on Heather dupericy Allen Drive with one
New Zealand let's get connected news talks.

Speaker 3 (50:07):
They'd be.

Speaker 2 (50:17):
Twenty four away from six Yer on news talks. There
would be Ellie Jones and Jordan Williams from the taxpace
and then standing by on the huddle. Ironically, I just
mentioned in my editorial before the news that people in
politicians in particular are taking them mickey. They're all skiving off,
not going to work, still getting paid and not really
caring about the consequences. And then lo and behold Allie Jones,

(50:38):
who's a Christi at city councilor she's going to have
to step out of a council meeting to talk to us.
And Karen MacNulty who's standing by, he's our next guest.
He's actually had to steep out of the house to
speak to us. So we're kind of part of the problem,
aren't we, Although at least you know they're working, they're
doing something. You know, they're informing the public, carrying out duties,

(50:59):
just not just outside of the meetings they should begin Lord.
Apparently in a comeback error, she's wiped your social media
apart from a clip that posts. She posted on her
TikTok account this morning, teasing new music. Have a listen seventeen.

Speaker 3 (51:14):
I gave you everything now that we wake from a dream. Well, baby,
what was done?

Speaker 31 (51:27):
There?

Speaker 3 (51:27):
You go?

Speaker 2 (51:28):
That's all she gave us. So does it sound like
a breakup song?

Speaker 28 (51:32):
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (51:33):
All of her songs sound upbeat, but are quite sad
actually when you read the lyrics, so maybe it's more
of that. Anyway, She's living in the US apparently the
past few months, rumored to be finishing off new music
for a new album. Twenty two to two six Ryan
Bridge A bill to make it easier to buy booze
on public holidays. Who doesn't like the sound of this
already has passed its first reading in Parliament. If the

(51:53):
bill becomes law, licensed premises will be able to sell
alcohol on Christmas Day, Easter Weekend and Anzac Day without restriction,
so long as the business is legally allowed to open
on these days. Anyway, the bill went to a conscience vote.
While it passed sixty seven fifty four, some of Kieren
McNulty's labor colleagues voted against it. The laboring Peace with

(52:16):
Us Now Kieren good evening. Hey, here go, who's against
a bear on Anzac Day?

Speaker 31 (52:24):
Mala. I think we've got to recognize that for a
lot of people, Easter and Christmas is really important and
any suggestion of a change on that is a difficult prospect.
And actually this has been debated in Parliament many, many
times and we've never got it to Select comittee. But
I thought about this bill quite a lot and was

(52:46):
really specific about what I'm proposing. Only those businesses that
already open, So the pubs and the restaurants that already
open on Good Friday and Easter Sunday but have to
go through this brigmarole of making sure someone's had a
meal before they let them buy a pint. Only those
are the ones that will be affected. And all I'm
saying is they should just if they're already legally able

(53:06):
to open, they should operate like they do every other
day the year.

Speaker 2 (53:09):
Does that get the unions on side because theyre worry
is you know you have people opening that otherwise wouldn't open,
and then the staff are forced to work.

Speaker 31 (53:19):
Well, the thing is that we have guaranteed days off
for most workers, and it's only a couple of year,
and any prospect of changing that is a big deal
in a much larger conversation than what I'm talking about.
The fact is that only businesses that are already open
and therefore workers that are already working, and in fact,
I tell you what I've spoken to, hospitality workers will

(53:39):
be pleased to be operating under the rules that they've
been trained under for the rest of the year, rather
than monitoring what someone's eaten in the last hour window
before they know whether they can serve them a pint
or not.

Speaker 2 (53:50):
Are you do you reckon that you'll get the same
amount of support on the second reading.

Speaker 31 (53:54):
I hope so. I was really clear with other MPs
last night when we debated the bill. I just want
to be pragmatic. I'm conscious that we've never had any
movement in this area, and if it turns out that
the majority of MPs are uncomfortable with Christmas Day being included,
I'll take it out. I don't care. I just want
to see some movement in this area. The end that day.

(54:14):
Morning one is particularly important to me. I don't think
IRSA should have to go through the process of getting
a special license just to give veterans a drink after
a dawn service or a civic service in mid morning.
I think that's silly. They should be able to operate
like they do in any other day of the year.

Speaker 2 (54:31):
You need a job at David Seymour's regulation bashing ministry.
That sounds like it's been right up as Ellie, Karen,
appreciate your time. Karen mcinaally from Parliament, will let you
get back into the house. It is nineteen away from six.

Speaker 1 (54:45):
The huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty the ones
with worldwide connections that perform, not promise.

Speaker 2 (54:52):
Alie Jones read pr with us Hey, Ellie good a
hell a good thank you, and Jordan Williams from the
Taxpayers and in Jordan good evening, good a guy. Let's
start with the attendance issue. This Gisbane counselor who's only
turned up and since October I think it was forty
one percent of meetings. Elie, you obviously go to a
lot of these. How many would you know? What would
your percentage be?

Speaker 5 (55:13):
Oh?

Speaker 32 (55:14):
I had a look the other day, actually, and I
think I've missed one. I think I've missed one. And
in fact, the attendance level and record of both city
councilors and community bar members is pretty good. There is
one guy who was who had a similar one to this,
chaps about forty nine percent. But I mean the point
is I don't think there should be a mandatory requirement.

(55:36):
There are, well, there are guidelines already in the standing
orders that says you know, you miss more than two
or three in a row and then they start asking
questions and looking at you know what you doing gism Yeah,
well exactly.

Speaker 27 (55:51):
Exactly but laid back life.

Speaker 10 (55:53):
Yeah.

Speaker 32 (55:53):
But the point is the point is when we're not
employees either, we're self employed, and so if people believe
that they can do the job at attending forty nine
for us being there five percent, well actually some of
the stuff we do is just waffle to be Frank
Jordan and you will know this as well. So I
don't think it should be mandatory. I think if it's
affecting someone's ability to do the job, where it becomes

(56:15):
an issue is that voting time, and that's when the
public can have their say.

Speaker 27 (56:19):
Well, I mean you're known as always there ally and
good on you, but I mean from a ratepayer perspective,
you know you are, you might not consider it a job.
It's not you're not employed, but you should be there.
And if some of the meetings are waffling on or
not worth the time, and look, I agree with that,
but that's actually the role of the council as the

(56:40):
governing body, like any board, to instruct the officials on
what they want one information they want and what decisions
they want to be making and don't need. They're not
doing it though, Jordan's and all this Chapman and Gismond,
you know, never then Nicks only churning up forty percent
of the time. I'm sorry, he's clearly not doing the

(57:02):
job and if he wants to continue to stand, it's
not unreasonable. Hey Ellie taking home six figures to be
to turn out.

Speaker 2 (57:09):
Ellie, I'm interested. You know when you said a lot
of the meetings are waffle?

Speaker 3 (57:13):
Is that?

Speaker 2 (57:14):
Why is that? And can you not change it so
that there's not so much waffle?

Speaker 32 (57:19):
This is why I'm running for council, Ryan. There's little
I can do on community board, but actually, you know,
we do need to change that. I'm sick to death
of reading a paragraph when it could be said in
four words, and I know that that's a little different
to well no, that is waffle. There go, there's a
definition of waffle. And so yes, there are a lot of,
in my opinion, unnecessary meetings. There are meetings that could

(57:41):
be done as zoom or as distant meetings done online,
far better ways of doing things. Sitting on your bum
for eight hours a day does not make you funny.
You a member of a government, I need.

Speaker 2 (57:51):
I mentioned that Jordan. I've always liked the idea of
stand up meetings. There was an it guy who started
nineteen business I can't remember which one the big ones,
and he was a big fan of those, because people
are tired and they get the meeting over and done with.

Speaker 28 (58:06):
Yeah.

Speaker 27 (58:07):
I had to laugh at the at Wayne, the Auckland mayor,
getting in trouble for doing a zoom call from his car.
I have to admit, when I'm running late, I put
on obviously not staring into the into the video screen,
but I turn it on on the hands free to
join our stand up calls in the morning, because that's
that's what sort of normal people with jobs do. The

(58:29):
idea that you're not turning up to two thirds of
the meetings though, but taking the full salary. I'm sorry
Alibat that's why local government has such a bad reputation.

Speaker 32 (58:38):
Let me just currently, let me just make clear that
is an extreme, That is an absolute extreme. But I
don't think we should be measured on how many times
we turn up to a meeting and sit on our
bums for eight hours a day.

Speaker 2 (58:50):
William, We will be back in just a few moments
here on the Huddle. It is a quarter to six.

Speaker 1 (58:57):
The Huddle with New Zealand Southby's International Real achieve extraordinary
results with unparallel reach news talks.

Speaker 2 (59:04):
B Ellie Jones read pr and Jordan Williams. Taxpayers in
on the Huddle tonight. David Seymour's bill, this is the
Treaty Principal's bill has failed on its second reading, sale
to be binned. But he told us tonight not going away,
not going anywhere. He is considering making it a bottom
line at the next election to have a referendum on

(59:24):
this issue. Ellie, what do you reckon?

Speaker 5 (59:27):
Oh?

Speaker 32 (59:28):
That's all I can do. I just it's exhausting. I
think I love it when someone takes up a challenge
and you know it doesn't give up and really goes.

Speaker 33 (59:37):
For what they believe in.

Speaker 32 (59:39):
Not in this situation, give it a break, David. The
bill received three hundred thousand submissions, ninety percent opposed it.
He keeps going on about how that wasn't clearly reflective
of what's really happening out in you know, wide in
New Zealand. So if he can show that in some
other way, good on. But he had his opportunity, for
God's sake, just.

Speaker 2 (59:58):
Let it go, Jordan, Well, are you going to make
a job of a funny.

Speaker 27 (01:00:05):
Noise representing well, representing the media party? The ninety percent bs,
the tens of thousands I know in Hobson's pledge case
it was I think nearly forty thousand they just treated
as one submission. Hugely disproped just disgraceful the way that
select committee process was run. When Ali, you use the

(01:00:26):
select committee numbers but not the public opinion polling, which
is that the public are behind it, regardless of regardless
it's scientific polling, I mean, it's opinion polling. Multiple multiple
companies have done it, and showing that the.

Speaker 32 (01:00:39):
Public democratic process, We're.

Speaker 27 (01:00:42):
Back up the truck out. The democratic process is a referendum.
What is so scary about having a national conversation on
things like equality of rights?

Speaker 10 (01:00:53):
I'm so that all the bill is about BS.

Speaker 27 (01:00:59):
Go on, read the principles. They are Each individual principle
has been polled and the public support all three of them. Look,
do you understand the public upholding what do you disagree
with upholding existing treaty settlements? Do you disagree with that? No?
I agree, you're on one of them. You're on one

(01:01:22):
of them. Do you disagree all New Zealanders be treated
equally before the land?

Speaker 2 (01:01:27):
Okay, sorry tapping up, It was too good. I was
enjoying myself. But what he does? He does have a point,
doesn't he that there is a lot of opposition, Elie,
But but no one really identifies exactly what it is
that they're opposed to. Can you see that that point
from David Singman?

Speaker 32 (01:01:47):
I can.

Speaker 9 (01:01:48):
I can see that.

Speaker 32 (01:01:49):
I think one of the issues, though, is that people
don't understand it. I will concede that I think there
are elements of this that people didn't understand. I think
people jumped onto a bad category. Yeah, well no, I
just think when you've got three hundred thousand submissions and
the number opposing it, even if you talking about the
blocks that were processed through Hobson's pledge or whatever you

(01:02:12):
have still got a massive number. There is no doubt
that the majority of people who submitted on this opposed it.

Speaker 5 (01:02:19):
So what do you do then?

Speaker 32 (01:02:20):
Go to referendum? Would you really think that we should
be spending money on a referendum on something that so
many people are opposing.

Speaker 27 (01:02:25):
Yeah, yeah, because that's that determines it. Determined it way
bag group in the world flag.

Speaker 9 (01:02:32):
At the same time, no text back.

Speaker 27 (01:02:35):
Group in the world complains about the cost of democracy.

Speaker 2 (01:02:37):
All right, guys, got a bumper sticker with that on.
Ellie Jones and Jordan Williams and a very boisterous Huddle
enjoyed that. Nine away from six News Talks Asy. Next,
I'm going to tell you, do you know who you
really want to hear from when there's a global market meltdown?
Megan Markle, she's waiting in.

Speaker 1 (01:02:55):
Next, it's the Heather dupas Allen Drive Full Show podcast
on my Ard Radio powered by News TALKSB.

Speaker 2 (01:03:04):
News Talks be referendum, referendum, referendum, used to a referendum,
No to a referendum. So many people commenting on the
Huddle debate, it was a good debate were obviously the
treaty Principal's bill has failed at second reading this afternoon.
That has happened, and David Seymour told this program after
five he is not rolling out taking it to as

(01:03:26):
a bottom line to any coalition negotiations that there be
a referendum, not just you know, the first reading, which
is what he got this time, but an actual referendum.
You'd have to see. You have to say that luxelm
would be once bitten twice shy on that front withn't
he now meet Back to the tariffs for a second.
You know, the whole world is talking about tariffs because
we were all affected. Where it's united the world in

(01:03:48):
a way. We've got something to talk about that everybody
has a skin in the game with, so we're all
united in this. We've all got a group chat set
up talking about tariffs and enters. Meghan Markle, Meghan Michael
is typing in your group chat. Do you want to
hear from her? Probably not, but I'm going to tell
you anyway. So she's talking about her new product line.

(01:04:09):
You know, she's got the Netflix show and then she's
selling all the products online, including the jam and the
honey that cost forty five dollars, the decorative flour sprinkles
for twenty six dollars, the short bread and crape mixes
twenty four dollars, herbal tea costing twenty one dollars. Anyway,
she's put her head above the parapet and said, at

(01:04:30):
the moment, the tariffs don't affect her products, so you
should buy them because they're made in America, so they're
not tariffed. She says, as we look at the larger
context of how this is going to affect the consumer
day to day, I'm very grateful that in part of
the conception of this brand, I wanted to create products
that look more prestige but are more accessible and affordable.
Would we say forty five dollars to jam is affordable.

(01:04:52):
I don't think we would. Ryan ninety percent of submissions
this is on the back to the treaty BIL ninety
percent of submisions out of three one hundred thousand were
against the bill. What if there were only two hundred
and seventy thousand out of five point five million total
population that opposed it. Well, that is a good point.
I mean, only those people who are really interested and

(01:05:14):
affected will submit on something, and particularly submit in person,
so it's not a representative sample. That would be what
a poll is, right, I don't know. I don't really
mind either way. I suppose a refereeum would sort sort
it out. Wouldn't it sort the boys from the girls,
or the men from the boys.

Speaker 21 (01:05:33):
Whatever.

Speaker 2 (01:05:33):
It is three minutes away from six news talks, HEDB
after six we're talking about banking. How long it takes
for the banks to pass on that OCR cut and
does something need to be done to fix the problem.
That's all I head news talk, said B.

Speaker 34 (01:05:52):
I can hear you near my head when I'm dreaming,
you dream mom, scaring you?

Speaker 5 (01:06:05):
Where you enjoy.

Speaker 1 (01:06:14):
Keeping track of where the money is flowing the business hour,
which Ryan Bridge can do theirs, insurance.

Speaker 3 (01:06:21):
And investments, grow your wealth, protect your future. News talks
at be Good Evening.

Speaker 2 (01:06:26):
It is seven after six News Talks. It'd been Liam
dan shortly on the bond markets that made Trump blink,
Jamie McKay on the beef prices holding up in the US,
Sam Dickey on how to invest in the volatile world,
and we'll get to Intebrady in the UK before seven
to two. Right now, the OCR dropped. We all saw
that yesterday, But why haven't your mortgage rates joined them?

(01:06:47):
Even for those of you on a floating rate, which
many people still are holding up for a lower one,
you'll yet to see the savings materialize. And I know
what you're thinking. You're thinking, hang on, I saw the
banks drop some of the banks drop the rates, Yes,
you did, but they dropped their advertised rates, not the
effect of rates that takes longer. Am Z and Benz
interestock code on Z did some good work on this.

(01:07:09):
Am Z and bean zaid the fastest to give you
your savings about seven days. Well, Kiwibank tacks an average
of two weeks to pass along the cut. Kent Dustin
started the Banking Reform Coalition. Is with me tonight?

Speaker 35 (01:07:22):
Hi, Kent Cure here are you going?

Speaker 27 (01:07:24):
Yeah?

Speaker 10 (01:07:24):
Good?

Speaker 2 (01:07:25):
Thank you? Thanks for being with me. So you don't
like the time it takes for the banks to pass
on the cuts from the OCR. How long do you
think it should take?

Speaker 35 (01:07:35):
Well, you know it's not just me, right, I don't
think anyone likes the amount of time it takes for
the banks to pass on the OCR cuts because you know,
after all, it's no harder than just hitting the heading
the return key on the keyboard. And really there's no
reason why it should not happen on the exact same
day that the Reserve Bank lowers the ocr You can't

(01:07:56):
see any reason at all why why it takes weeks
and weeks.

Speaker 27 (01:07:59):
To do this.

Speaker 2 (01:07:59):
Look, I agree with you in principle, and there's that
they've given a whole bit of the banks have given
a whole bunch of reasons why it taxed them so long.
But there's one thing. If you look at the rate
at which they drop after there's a cut versus the
rate at which they increase after there's a hike, they're
about the same. In fact, they're actually faster asb for example,

(01:08:20):
drop the rates faster than they raised them.

Speaker 35 (01:08:23):
Yeah, it's kind of interesting because you know, it does
look like the banks are cherry picking a bit of
data on this. In the Commerce Commissions Market study into
personal banking last year, they commissioned a piece of work
from the University of Auckland's Business School and it looked
at the long run data in what it seed after
they did the big statistical analysis, you know, completely interopeners

(01:08:45):
of the banks themselves, is that after four months, because
you've got to take into account both of fixed rates
and the floating rates. Right after four months, the banks
had passed on ninety percent of the increase to borrowers,
it only passed on fifty seven percent of the decrease. Right, So,
I think there's a long run behavior here from the

(01:09:05):
banks that they are literally you know, rockets up but
feathers down. And I think we see that when you know,
we're talking about weeks and weeks to get what should
be a pretty simple change through to existing borrowers.

Speaker 2 (01:09:20):
But you're talking about the amount we were talking about
the time, So on the time, I mean, if they
are dropping rates at the same or faster rate than
they are raising them, does that not tell you something?
Does that not tell you that, you know, maybe it
is that their IT systems are crap or I don't know,
something's going on behind the scenes, or as they say,
they have to do due diligence and there's a whole

(01:09:41):
bunch of other things they need to take into account.
Would that number not indicate that perhaps they're just slow,
not bad.

Speaker 35 (01:09:49):
Well, you know, it's a bit hard to untangle slow
from bad, you know, because after all, look, no one's
arguing that their IT systems are terrible.

Speaker 36 (01:09:57):
Right.

Speaker 35 (01:09:58):
In that same market study the Communist Commission, you know,
they pointed out that the A and Z Bank, their
core systems had been depreciated all the way down to
zero dollars, which means they're so old that in both
accounting terms and operational terms, those systems are worthless. Right, So, yeah,
their systems are bad, but that's their own decision to

(01:10:19):
have not reinvested in up to date systems, So it's
not like borrowers should have to pay a penalty for that.
When it comes to the timing of the delays, again,
the banks are fully in charge of this. You know,
They're the ones who decide the notice periods and the
contracts and you know, how get operationalized in their systems

(01:10:40):
and how quickly they notified borrowers and all those things.
And it just seems that these delays are pretty self
serving because it's pretty obvious that holding interest rates too
high for too long costs us money and makes them profit.

Speaker 2 (01:10:54):
Kent, thanks for that, Ken Dustin Banking Reform Coalition convena
with us not happy with how long it takes, But
I mean not that I'm here to stick up for
the banks, because no one wants to be that guy.
But they do take into account a whole bunch of
different numbers when they're deciding what the rates are going
to be, including swap rates, which has been all over
the place over the last week. So I wouldn't you

(01:11:15):
give a bit of leeway. Plus some of their according
to the Banking Inquiry, computer systems are so antiquated that
even passing the rates on for you know, if you're
wanting to lower the rate for a saver, which is
to their advantage, they can't do that until the first
of the following month. That's how ms doss their computer

(01:11:35):
systems are. So it might be, as I say, more
slow than bad. Twelve after six yesterday at this time,
actually we spoke to Barbara Edmonds, the Labor MP, and
remember she couldn't get on the show. Well she initially
pressed it call said oh we have to cancel because
there's a fire alarm at Parliament. Well, thankfully eventually she
came on.

Speaker 37 (01:11:56):
I think it was just because obviously left my phone,
the fire alarm just got to get outside, so we
just wanted to make sure that it was weird. Just
we didn't know how long we were going to be
outside I've been here for ten years in Parliament, the Precinct, Durut,
the Prince Sects. The first time I've ever had a
fire drill during a house sitting time. So but I'm here, man,
That's what matters.

Speaker 2 (01:12:15):
She did get there, did Bob. But the thing is,
why do they have a fire alarm when the house
is sitting? Because it was I assumed it must have
been smoke or something had set it off, but it
was actually just a drill. Very rare for them to
do that. In fact, I don't know whether they've done
it before. So we reached out to Parliament and to
the Speaker's office. They told us that while drills usually

(01:12:36):
happened during recess, they decided they'd do one on a
house sitting day because you just never know what might happen. So, yes,
it was a real fire drill, and it was planned
and it happened while the house was sitting.

Speaker 18 (01:12:48):
Imagine if they imagine if they decided to do it today, right, Well.

Speaker 2 (01:12:53):
Good point. I mean that would have been one way
to shut it up. You know you don't want any debate,
Well we can put us.

Speaker 18 (01:13:00):
I appreciate that none of the parties did a Harker today.
But if you're planning a Harker and then halfway through
the voting, the fire alarm goes, and then you will
come back in. Do you do the Harker? Then do
you go Okay, well, we've already had the disruption today,
we can't really do another one. Now our sunder's been stolen.

Speaker 2 (01:13:12):
I reckon it would be game over, the game over
once the fire alarm goes, it's game over. As this
forty minutes half to six News Talks, that'd be Liam
Dan will walk us through the bond markets, what the
bizarre thing that happened on the bond markets, what caused
it and whether that was responsible for Trump's You turn
this morning, it's.

Speaker 1 (01:13:31):
The Heather duper Cell and Drive Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio,
empowered by News Talk ZEBBI.

Speaker 2 (01:13:39):
Well, it's all. We've had it all, really have we
over the last few days. Global volatility, o CR announcements,
economic uncertainty. It's a tough environment out there, and let's
be honest, knowing your next move not always straightforward. Is
that That's why good advice matters. When markets get noisy,
you want someone who can cut through the headlines. I
can give it to you straight, what's actually going on
and what you should actually be thinking about. That's what

(01:14:02):
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(01:14:24):
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Speaker 3 (01:14:35):
If it's to do with money, it matters to you.

Speaker 1 (01:14:38):
The Business Hour with Ryan Bridge and Theirs Insurance and Investments,
Grow your wealth, Protect your future newstgs.

Speaker 2 (01:14:46):
Env six seventeen, We'll get a Jamie McKay next. Looks
like the bond market ultimately force Donald Trump's hands to
pull back on those tariffs.

Speaker 4 (01:14:53):
Butt market is very tricky. I was watching it, but
if you look at it now, it's it's beautiful. Unmarket
right now is beautiful, but yeah, I saw last night
where people were getting a little queasy.

Speaker 2 (01:15:07):
So beautiful. Liam dan is the herold's business editor at
large LIMB good evening. Hey, right, what was wrong was
where the bond markets were going.

Speaker 9 (01:15:14):
Well, the yield or the interest rate on the US
Treasury bonds was going up, and it was going up
quite fast, and that was going up. It's sort of
there's an inverse relationship between the price of a bond
and the yield on it, and the price of the
bonds was going down, suggesting that they were being sold
off around the world. A few possible reasons for that.

(01:15:36):
You know, you've got investors all over the world worried about,
you know, just how safe a bet the US is. Traditionally,
when markets are in turmoil, US treasury bonds are the
safe place to go, and so that's been undermined somewhat.
Some people suggesting that the Chinese, who have you know,
about a trillion dollars worth of own about a trillion

(01:15:57):
dollars worth of US debt or US bonds, maybe selling
them off to to force his hand, to force his hand,
although that would hurt them as well. So it is
kind of a nuclear option because you know, as the
price falls, they lose the value of them. You know,
they lose value, So a bit of that. But either way,
you know, whether it was the Chinese or all of

(01:16:19):
you know, a whole bunch of the countries, or just
general loss of faith, it was spiking really fast, and
that's a real problem. You know, when you have a
when interest rates go up faster than predicted, companies that
have an amount of debt that might have seemed like
an okay amount of debt suddenly is a problematic amount
of debt. And we saw that in the GFC when

(01:16:41):
the overnight lending rates spiked to the point that the
market just froze up and then big banks started falling over.
So you can't let that happen. They often say that
the bond market is, you know, the most powerful political
or financial or economic force in the world. I mean,
the whole world runs on debt, and when that seasons up,

(01:17:06):
things just stop happening.

Speaker 2 (01:17:07):
So that's meant to be the safest of safe, right,
That's the same absolutely so, So.

Speaker 9 (01:17:12):
In a way, you know, in Donald Trump sort of
playing poker with with this, the very idea that the
US is the primary safe haven, you know, that the
number one place for you know, the dominant economy in
the world.

Speaker 2 (01:17:27):
And back home, the INSIDETX finished today high was up
three point.

Speaker 9 (01:17:31):
Yeah, about three point four, three point five.

Speaker 2 (01:17:32):
So they're still not recovering what it's not recovering.

Speaker 9 (01:17:35):
And yeah, the bond yields, I guess they're looking beautiful now,
they're looking still beautiful. They're stable, but the situation we're in,
so there's been a backtrack on the tariffs for all
the countries except China. But the tariff one hundred and
twenty five percent on China and they've got the reciprocal
eighty four percent. That seems like it just can't stand.
I mean, how does that How does the US economy

(01:17:58):
and the Chinese economy function? Those tariffs? Not very well,
I would have thought, And that's going to be huge
fallout for the world. So really that they have to
get to the negotiating table, but there's obviously a lot
of pride, pride, and they have to get there and
save some face. So Donald Trump doesn't want to look
like he's back down against the Chinese. I'm sure Jijinping

(01:18:19):
doesn't want to look like that either. But it's problematic
if this goes from a sort of a it sort
of feels through surreal at the moment because we yet
to see the reality of these tariffs hitting consumers and
hitting the manufacturers. But that's going to happen in the
next few days if something doesn't.

Speaker 2 (01:18:35):
Give Lilliam Dan appreciate your analysis, as always ends a
Herald Business editor at large. Twenty one after six, Get
to Jamie McKay the beef prices holding up in the
US despite the tariffs.

Speaker 1 (01:18:45):
He's here Next the Rule Report with MSD Animal Health
over nz It's most popular Cowcola.

Speaker 2 (01:18:52):
Six twenty four Sam Dicky next on how to invest
in a volatile market. Right now. Jamie mckaye hosted The
Country with Us. Jamie, Hello, good afternoon, Ryan, Good to
have you on.

Speaker 4 (01:19:02):
Now.

Speaker 2 (01:19:02):
What did you make of the We spoke about this yesterday,
the pine forest and the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment
saying actually they're not that great in the long run.

Speaker 33 (01:19:10):
No, But can I first address the elephant in the room.
What's that Grannie's knee?

Speaker 28 (01:19:15):
Oh?

Speaker 33 (01:19:18):
I was driving back from Timaru yesterday. I was at
the South Island Air event it was a very entertaining show.
Thank you Grannie for your knee. But on a more
serious note, it was just good to catch up from
my point of view over the wall is shoe or
the wall in government buildings issue, and I know you've
covered it off at length, and also the pine trees,
the ets, what Simon Upton was saying, and I found

(01:19:40):
that really interesting.

Speaker 2 (01:19:42):
Yeah, well, I can update you on Grannie actually, Damie.
I gave her a call last night and she's doing well.
And I said, Grannie, I gave you a shout out
on the radio yesterday and she wasn't listening.

Speaker 5 (01:19:53):
So there you go.

Speaker 33 (01:19:55):
I reckon, she'll be the hit or the star of
the rest time.

Speaker 27 (01:19:58):
Ryan.

Speaker 33 (01:19:59):
She's a celebrity, she.

Speaker 2 (01:20:00):
Is, all right. So yeah, the Parlietry Commission for the
Environment and you heard yesterday the interview about the pine forest.
What's your take on it, Jamie.

Speaker 33 (01:20:08):
Well, look, I'm not a fan of carbon farming just
by itself. I'm all for production forestry and I think
it's good. It's our fourth biggest export industry behind dairy,
red meat and horticulture. But I'm really worried Ryan, and
I know a lot of people don't agree with me,
but I'm really worried that will become the Californian wildfire
capital of the South Pacific in twenty or thirty years

(01:20:31):
off the back of this poorly managed carbon forests, because
I don't buy into the argument that all the land,
often good grazing land that's being planted right at the moment,
we might put a stop to it later this year.
Is there for production forestry in the future. I think
there's a bit of spray and walk away here. People
are looking to get the carbon credits, and goodness knows

(01:20:52):
what happens to these forests, especially if they're not managed
properly over the next twenty or thirty years like a
production forest could be. And I'm with Simon Upton on
this one. And interestingly, and I know you talked about
this yesterday, but he's saying modeling indicates a glut of
carbon credits is going to hit the New Zealand market

(01:21:13):
in the twenty thirties, So what do we do. It's
going to exceed the government's ability to auction them off.
He's saying the simplest way is to phase out forestry
options for pine trees out of the ets in an
orderly way, grandfathering existing credits, i e. Looking after those
who have already invested but are not issuing any more,

(01:21:35):
because I think there'll be a political change in the
wind somewhere down the track and all of a sudden,
no one will want a bar of these carbon credits.
It'll be yesterday's news and we're going to be left
with these carbon forests that are uneconomic.

Speaker 2 (01:21:48):
No one cares for them.

Speaker 33 (01:21:49):
And as I said, it may be spray and walk away,
and I think we it's an ecological and biological disaster
in the making.

Speaker 2 (01:21:57):
Now, let's talk about the beef exporterers, the tariff, the
imposition of the ten percent tariff not really having much
of an effect on the price.

Speaker 33 (01:22:04):
Well, beef producers in this country or beef exporters are
in a good position. And I was listening to the
guy from ANSCO and I've just forgotten his name, Yes,
sales and marketing manager Rick Walker. Sorry Rick forgetting your
name wrong. And he's saying some customers supplying the US

(01:22:25):
market had been testing the waters and inverted commas with
New Zealand exporters, and this included suggesting renegotiated previously agreed prices.
But what he's saying is the New Zealand beef exporters
are in a strong position. They're not going to be
pushed around by these buyers. Were sure to beef are
in New Zealand. It's not like we're saying we need

(01:22:46):
six weeks of contracts done because their freezers are full.
It's the complete opposite. The meat companies are in a
bit of a procurement battle. They're chasing that beef, especially
from the farms, and he's saying that the US importers
are just saying, look, well, well we'll pay the tariff.
And interestingly, I was talking to Andy Bollin, who's the

(01:23:08):
GM of Scales, one of our biggest horticulture companies. He
was in China when I chatted to him on my
show today and he was talking about exporting juice fruit
juice to the US, and the US buyers were saying,
we'll just wear the tariff. So maybe that happens at
ten percent. I'm not sure Ryan, they'll be saying that

(01:23:28):
at one hundred and twenty five percent.

Speaker 2 (01:23:30):
No, I don't think they will be. Jamie, Thank you
very much, Jamie, Ryan, always good the chat. Jamie mckaye
hosted the Country. Great to have You on the show
as the words Jamie twenty nine after six News Talks EDB.

Speaker 1 (01:23:43):
Croaching the numbers and getting the results, skits Ryan Bridge
with the Business Hour and Mass Insurance and Investments, Grew
your Wealth, Protect Your Future News Talks EDB.

Speaker 2 (01:23:56):
Seeing it is twenty three minutes away from seven, you're
on News Talks B for your Thursday evening. Great to
have your company. We can all relax a little bit

(01:24:18):
because it seems like Trump's being semi reasonable to all
those people who are saying it's insider trading. Because Trump
tweeted after well before he made the announcement made the reversal,
he tweeted saying now's a good time to buy, and
then he used his initials, which are also the stock
acronym for his media empire, Trump Media and Technology. So

(01:24:42):
a lot of people are saying, oh, it's it's insider trading,
and Democrats are saying that too. On the one hand,
they're saying, oh, he's crazy and he doesn't know what
he's doing and he doesn't have a plan. But then
on the other hand they're saying it's insider trading. And
to do insider trading, you have to have a plan,
and he would have to know what he was going
to do. And he's been saying buy now for a
couple of days, so I'm not sure I buy the argument.

(01:25:03):
But here's some interesting numbers for you. If you did
follow Donald Trump's advice, Tesler stocks two hundred and twenty
six dollars. That's the minute that he made the post,
they were worth two hundred and twenty six dollars twenty seven,
they surged to as high as two hundred and seventy
four dollars sixty nine. That's a twenty two percent increase today,
So if you invested one thousand dollars when Trump's post hit,

(01:25:24):
you could have sold for around twelve hundred and fourteen
at session highs. Trump Media and Technology Shares this is
his media company. The stock felled to sixteen sixty nine
the minute his post went out. This is from the
other week. It has since sold to a high twenty
dollars and forty that's again a twenty two point two
percent jump. If you poured one thousand dollars into the

(01:25:46):
stock the minute of Trump's post, you could have sold
for about one thousand, two hundred and twenty two at
highs of the day, twenty one minutes.

Speaker 3 (01:25:54):
Away from seven Bryan Bridge.

Speaker 2 (01:25:57):
That would of course involve you taking financial advice from
Donald Try up. Now we're going to get some from
Sam Dickey Fisher Funds, who's been watching this all day. Sam,
good evening, good evening, right, No advice, but some perspective, yeaps. Yeah,
I should tend for myself. Sorry. Now we've obviously been
an undated by the news flow. How do you keep
track of it all and decide what's important what's not?

Speaker 38 (01:26:20):
Yeah, whip saw, you really do need frameworks and roadmaps.
Otherwise you are just drowning in headline bombs and you
are getting whip swords. So we think about three or
four broad framework so geopolitical, economic, equity, market and single
stop frameworks. So when we think about geopolitics, we keep
it super simple because we're not experts, but we bucket

(01:26:41):
the players into the retaliators. So that's Europe, Canada, Mexico,
and then the negotiators so importantly Japan and the Southeast
Asia and most other countries, then of course China. So
when you think about the retaliators prior to the poors,
I mean Europe, it's probably a level playing field when
it comes it comes to negotiating with the US. And

(01:27:01):
I think Canada and Mexico were critical crash test dummies,
so the US dealt with them in the week's leaning
up to Liberation Day, and positively there was no incremental
or reciprocal tariffs on top of the initial ones. I
think the negotiators being led by Japan is really reimportant,
and China it's increasingly looking like they will be the
key focus of Trump's second term like they were in

(01:27:22):
his first. So clearly any movement forwards or backwards with
those three packets as key. On the economic side, on growth,
most economists think there'll be one percent of hit the
global growth. On inflation, we'll see a second half spike
of about one and a half percent in US inflation.
But critically, ryan the market is or was telling us
about nine hours ago that the medium term growth drag

(01:27:45):
from these crazy policies will outweigh the short term inflation spike.
And we know that because the market had priced in
another rate cut by the feed since Liberation Day. And
then the final thing on economics is is the mitigants.
So before we talk about trump pain threshold, which we've
discovered overnight. The first mitigant is easier mantary policy by

(01:28:06):
the Fed and the ECB, and the second one is
easier fiscal policy. So in the US we could get
more tax cuts, we could see Doge backing off, and
in Europe places like Germany are ramping up infrastructure spending.

Speaker 2 (01:28:20):
So where two from here, I think we're two from here.

Speaker 3 (01:28:26):
What is his the endgame?

Speaker 38 (01:28:27):
Where does he blink? What's his pain threshold? So we
found that out last night, and I think he was
prepared to see more equity market pay and that's become
pretty clear.

Speaker 2 (01:28:36):
That's a sort of a.

Speaker 3 (01:28:37):
Self correcting mechanism.

Speaker 38 (01:28:39):
It doesn't feed on itself, but the sort of self
reinforcing asset prices that do feed on themselves, like credit.
He did sort of score an own goal there. So
he saw spiking the spiking cost of corporate borrowing the US.
So that had been that's the spread you pay over
government bonds to borrow as a risky corporate, and that

(01:28:59):
had been it's sort of fifteen year lows a few
weeks ago, and as of sort of eighteen hours ago,
it had spiked to some of the worst level scenes
in twenty twenty two, So that has a direct transmission
mechanism to the average person on the street via borrowing rates.
And then we also saw him starting to lose control

(01:29:21):
of the government bond market about sort of sixteen hours ago,
and you saw sort of thirty year government bond yield spiking,
and that's quite scary, someone calling it his Liz Trust moment.
I think those two sort of self reinforcing things caused
them to pause. So the point here is, I think
if we see any further escalation in China or him

(01:29:42):
flip flopping on the pause with other countries, that will
be carefully checked against those the resultant moves in the
price of US credit, the price of US government bond,
and if they spike again, it seems he will back down.

Speaker 2 (01:29:57):
Is it hard? I mean, is this more difficult to
predicted than COVID Donald Trump's mind because you're not really
you know, you're not really. It doesn't behave in a
rational way. Not nor did a virus mind you, But
it doesn't behave in a rational way. I mean, I
suppose it has, as you say, blinked today, we've we've
figured out the pain threshold. But it's very it must
be very hard to get to have irrational thoughts on

(01:30:20):
it is.

Speaker 38 (01:30:21):
I mean, it is sort of similar to COVID in
the early days, and we just didn't know how serious
this this virus was going to be and how it
was going to sort of morph from one virulent strain
to another. But it's quite apt, actually got app appt comparison, Ryan,
But I think that that's I mean, all these things
are the same and the respect that we don't know,

(01:30:42):
and that's the point. They're hard to precisely price or
understand or even keep up with. That's why if you
don't want to drown in these headline bombs, you have
to have these sort of simple frameworks to think about things.
And the other thing is your own portfolio.

Speaker 1 (01:30:56):
Ryan.

Speaker 38 (01:30:57):
You put it into four buckets, so companies direct impacted
by US tariffs, companies directly impacted by retaliatory tariffs, and
then how those companies are relatively positioned within their sector
so that do they have a manufacturing advantage, do they
have pricing powers so they can pass on any cost increases?
And the final bucket is companies in the way of
a probable economic slowdown. So that's the sort of four

(01:31:19):
buckets you think about any investment you're making, and as
of twenty four hours ago, every bucket, so the directly impacted,
the indirectly impacted, and even the supposedly not impacted, had
been indiscriminately over sold. So that was pretty good buying.
But now we're in a more sort of picky environment.

Speaker 2 (01:31:40):
Yeah, so what do we do now? I mean, have
we missed our opportunity to make a bunch of money?

Speaker 38 (01:31:48):
I mean, look, when when fear gets as elevated as
it was sort of again twenty four hours ago, you know,
sentiment engages are a a good barometer, and you know
we were deep in fear to dear territory. Some of
the fear gauges we track with the worse they've been
in twenty five years. I do think there's when there's
blood on the streets, there's opportunity around. That of course

(01:32:10):
doesn't mean it's a long term investor that the opportunity's gone.
It just means you need to be a bit more picky.
And I do think, as always, companies with wide and
widening economic moats around their businesses, long growth runways run
by high quality people are a pretty good place to start.

Speaker 2 (01:32:25):
Sam, appreciate your time, Sam Dickey, Fisher Funds. It is
quarter to seven. We're in the UK next.

Speaker 1 (01:32:30):
Whether it's macro, micro or just plain economics, it's all
on the business hour with Ryan Bridge and players, insurance
and investments. Grow your wealth, protect your future.

Speaker 2 (01:32:41):
These dogs that be in the bradio are UK correspondent
with us at twelve minutes away from seven. Get a ender. Hey, Ryan,
Great to speak to you again and to you now.
Keir Starmers says the economy will struggle regardless of tariff's
or does he mean whether there's tariffs or not, or
regardless of what the rate might be.

Speaker 15 (01:33:00):
I think Starmar's pointing out to people that even if
he manages to negotiate an exemption from the Trump tariffs,
we're going to be hit by the kind of tailwinds
because everyone is going to be affected. So I think
he's setting his stall out. The negotiations are clearly going
on behind the scenes, and the word from Downing Street
is that the time now is for cool and calm heads.

(01:33:22):
And I think it's been so kind of quiet in
the media here the last few days. Nobody seems to
be panicking. I get the impression behind the scenes they're
quietly confident that Trump will give the UK a pass.
Now we have no confirmation of that, but Starmar's just
pointing out that even if an exemption comes and we
get zero percent in terms of a deal with the US,

(01:33:43):
the British economy will still be hit. And let's face it,
you know there's no growth here at the moment, flatlining
along as it has been for a couple of years.
We're in for a very difficult few years.

Speaker 2 (01:33:53):
Ohad, Yeah, Iver and Italy. I thought the King wasn't
going to make the pipe. Is this a surprise with
the pipe?

Speaker 15 (01:34:01):
Yes, it is. So we were told that this would
not be taking place out of respect for the Pope's
health and his recovery. And then out of nowhere they
let it be known late last night that the King
had indeed gone to the Vatican, so we knew he
was going to be in Rome meeting Georgia Maloney. They
got on very well. Lots of pictures in the papers
today of Charles making her laugh. He gave a speech

(01:34:21):
to the Italian Parliament where he cracked a few jokes
as well. He actually got a standing ovation from the
Italian politicians, and there was one funny line Charles came
out with, because he's a big Monty Python fan. He
said he's never been a subscriber of the view. What
have the Romans ever done for us? And that got
a few laughs out of the Italian politicians. So and
then off he went privately to the Vatican and he

(01:34:43):
spent time with Pupe Francis so a lovely touch. And remember,
of course, Charles, Leader of the Church of England, defender
of the faith.

Speaker 2 (01:34:51):
Who's this Premier League footballer with a very expensive car
that's been seized.

Speaker 15 (01:34:58):
This is a guy who plays for a ch we'll see.
He's an Ecuador international. He's one of the highest paid
midfielders in the English Premier League. Moyses Kisado is his name,
and he may well be getting a lift to work
today because it turns out he has no UK driving license.
He's been in England four years, four years in the
Premier League. He's a multimillionaire and the allegation is that

(01:35:20):
he does not have a British driving license. So he
got pulled by the cops yesterday driving a three hundred
and twenty thousand dollars AUDI that has now been seized
and the police investigation continues. Chelsea say it's a private
matter and the player himself, Cado, has not commented, so
there you go. Look, I'm guessing it's the paperwork. He

(01:35:40):
has a driving license clearly, but just not a UK
one and that actually is a criminal offense. So it's
true he's in a lot of trouble.

Speaker 2 (01:35:48):
I'm sure he can find someone who wouldn't mind driving
the cap for him and being his stripe for him
in the things for that in the Brady, a UK correspondent,
it is nine to seven News Talk si'd.

Speaker 1 (01:35:58):
Be it's the hit Tuople c Allen Drive Full Show
podcast on iHeartRadio powered by Newstalk ZBB News.

Speaker 2 (01:36:07):
Talk ZB just gone six away from seven. So OfficeMax
we all know the name, household name Project inquill owns
it the parent company of three Officemac entities. They've reported
today profits are up thirty four point two percent net
profit up pretty impressive when you consider where they were
just a couple of years ago. They had to close

(01:36:28):
or basically close most of their physical stores after COVID
and went to exclusively e commerce only. They've done this
by so ten point four to three million. Despite sales
declining three point eight nine percent in the year, they
have managed to boost net profit by thirty two percent.
They've done this by basically trimming cost which is impressive
two point five million dollars off of fifty one million

(01:36:50):
dollar employee benefits among them. Twenty nineteen, the company made
a one point six million dollar net loss, so they
have turned things around. Keeping your costs on the control.
That's the way to go, isn't it. Twenty Sorry, five
minutes away from seven o'clock news talk Sebb, what are
we going out to? Ants?

Speaker 18 (01:37:07):
When I come around by Green Day to play us
out tonight, Ryan, We've got Coachella. The first weekend of
Coachella is happening this weekend. Reminder of you, if you're
not flying to California yourself, which is quite fair enough
in the cost of living crisis, you can actually watch
the whole thing live. It's it all streams live on YouTube.
So obviously we're a day ahead of the US. So
the Friday all start at about eleven am Saturday our time,

(01:37:28):
and then go into the evening and then Green Day
are the headliners on Saturday. So they'll probably be playing
in the evening on Sunday our time. The headliner on
Saturday our time will be Lady Gaga. And then on Monday,
if you take the day off work to watch Coachella,
which is you know fair enough, then you'll see post alone.

Speaker 2 (01:37:45):
Sure there'd be a Gisban counselor somewhere who can do that. Yes,
easily arranged. Hey, and just before you go, before we go,
this will be my last shift with you, very much.
I'm sorry, not ever, Ryan, well hopefully not ever, but
for the last couple of months I've been filling them
for here. The she's back on Monday, but this will
be my last shift with you because you're away tomorrow.
Thank you very much. You've been great, excellent work rand here.

Speaker 18 (01:38:06):
The shoes are not easy to fill, and you've done
a brilliant job, and hopefully you continue doing a brilliant
job tomorrow. Even without my guiding hand. It's going to
be difficult, but it'll be hard.

Speaker 2 (01:38:12):
It'll be hard. In and Laura, I'll say goodbye to
you tomorrow, not that you talk, which is weird anyway,
Have a good evening, run se tomorrow Friday.

Speaker 36 (01:38:22):
Down Thank God time right, so don't.

Speaker 7 (01:38:27):
Do what to buy.

Speaker 36 (01:38:31):
Badun you get.

Speaker 5 (01:38:40):
Job for something and it's just done right. No, dumb no,
there's no.

Speaker 16 (01:38:47):
World done nowhere.

Speaker 36 (01:38:53):
Where come, not down, don't go worlds their well.

Speaker 5 (01:39:23):
Conrad aware, not congres

Speaker 1 (01:39:37):
Not For more from Hither duplessy Alan Drive, Listen live
to news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio

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