October 1, 2024 • 6 mins
Another Global Dairy Trade auction is expected to take place tonight - and experts are predicting more good news this time round.
There was a substantial life off the back of the previous auction - with a 0.8 percent increase across the board.
The Country's Jamie Mackay outlined his predictions ahead of tonight's results.
LISTEN ABOVE
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The rural report on heather duper see Allen Drive.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Oh so the country, Jamie McKay is weather's this evening.
Good evening, sir good a Jack Such Yeah, nice to chant.
Another key global global dairy trade auction coming up tonight.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
Yeah. Well, of course, last week Fontarah Jack came out
with that really good news headlined I guess by the
nine dollars forecast milk price for the season we're in
at the moment twenty four to five. We're expecting another
positive GDT auction tonight because the volumes are starting to
fall away seasonally from now on. And incidentally, the milk
(00:38):
futures for the current season are sitting at nine dollars twenty.
That's all good news. But even better news Jack, if
you're an organic dairy farmer, you got paid ten dollars
ninety two per kilogram of milk solids for your organic
milk this year, which is a record price, surpassing the
ten dollars eighty and the twenty two to twenty three
(01:00):
season the tenth or the fourth time organic milk has
exceeded ten dollars, and the margin between organic and normal milk,
it's just the stuff that comes off the average farmers
over three dollars, remembering that the payout for the season
we've just finished with seven eighty three. So look all
and all, look, I know some farmers who are organic
and who are a two and they will were not
(01:23):
laughing all the way to the bank. It's expensive to make,
but they'll be you know, good times.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Yeah, yeah, that's good to hear. Hey, the proposed closure
of the meat works in Timado is exacerbating the risk
that more of these announcements could be made around the country.
It feels like a bit of a theme at the moment. Day.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Well, yeah, the problem is, and you know, is this
going to be the first Is this going to be
the first domino to fall? How many other plants might
have to close due to excess capacity? And if too
many of them closed suddenly, then does the sheep met
industry or the red meat industry have enough critical mass
to run these Look at it's tough. Kate Ackland, the
(02:02):
chair of Beef and Land New Zealand, was on my
show today Jack and she's saying this is due to
a significant decrease in sheep meat prices over the last
few years, coupled with spiraling costs on the farm and
in the supply chain. Also there's the forestry argument. And
you've got to be careful where you tread on this
(02:22):
one at the moment, because the forestry industry in itself
having a really tough time at the moment. Businesses are
closing down and Gisburne it's the forestry industries are responsible
for about a third of the economic activity in the
Gisbon Tirafity Poverty Bay region. So tough times indeed. And
(02:43):
you know, the sheep farmers are saying that the forestry
is responsible for land use change. I think that slowed
down to be fair to a fair degree. The forestry,
I guess, does have two bites at the cherry jack.
There is the log prices all bent very low at
the moment, plus the carbon credits you can along the way.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
I know, at the moment it's just a proposal, But
what is your sense for if the plans go ahead
and about six hundred workers Alliance Group Smithfield Works lose
their job, what is going to be the impact on
that community? Intimado huge?
Speaker 1 (03:16):
I think it's the biggest employer, huge, And you know,
like I know, they've got to go through the consultation
process check and I don't want to sound hard hearted
about this, but this deal is done. I think from
the Alliance Group's point of view, there is a silver lining,
believe it or not, in mothballing this plant and that
Smithfield basically sits in a quite a desirable part of Timaru.
(03:38):
The city has come out to meet the meat works,
no pun intended, and my understanding is a local developer
is going to bowl it all over and build houses there,
so instead of having a real cost or an impost,
the Alliance Group will possibly come out of this on
the right side of the ledger. I think as bad
(03:59):
is for the workers of South Canterbury that there's enough
capacity in the rest of their processing plants to handle
the lambs especially that are going to come forward this season.
Remembering Jack that Southland's been hammered by the wettest September
on record, There's going to be quite a few less
lambs coming to the market this year. Beef and Lamb
set a million less prom for slaughter available this year,
(04:22):
or that number you can add to that. Because mother
nature has played a bit of a cruel hand down South.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
A million less that's that's that's extraordinary. I for one,
headn't appreciated that it was that significant. That is, there's
really something.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Ah oh well you look at the sheep numbers. Check
they are significant. We've got twenty three million sheep.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Oh yeah yeah, the ninth Yeah is just huge.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
Yeah, yeah, yeah it is. And you know, and that's
a million less lambs out of something like about fourteen
million available that were born, So it's it's quite a
big percentage. But yeah, look that the sheep numbers are
in decline. Unless the prices and I proved, especially for
lamb remembering walls a bit of a dog at the moment,
(05:04):
those numbers will continue to decline. And it's sad that
an industry on which this country was founded, wool and
meat and sheep meat, is really struggling at the moment.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Yeah, no, it really is. Hey, thank you so much,
Jamie appreciated as it always Jamie McKay, Host of the Country,
there with us this evening. Just so you know, there
has been a four point nine magnitude earthquake at the
top of the South Island this evening. It struck about
twenty five k's northeast of seven, so that's in Marlboro. Obviously,
the depth was about nine k's which is relatively shallow,
(05:36):
means a lot of people would have felt it. In fact,
I think Gnett recorded more than ten thousand people saying
they had felt the shake around the Marlborough, Nelson Wellington
regions shortly before six o'clock this evening. So anyway, we've
got the news team on that they're checking for any
reports to damage or anything. At the moment, doesn't sound
like there are major reports, but will make sure we
update you in the news very shortly. Right now, twenty
(05:58):
four minutes past six year with Jack Tame on Newstalk
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive. Listen live to
news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
The rural report on heather duper see Allen Drive.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Oh so the country, Jamie McKay is weather's this evening.
Good evening, sir good a Jack Such Yeah, nice to chant.
Another key global global dairy trade auction coming up tonight.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
Yeah. Well, of course, last week Fontarah Jack came out
with that really good news headlined I guess by the
nine dollars forecast milk price for the season we're in
at the moment twenty four to five. We're expecting another
positive GDT auction tonight because the volumes are starting to
fall away seasonally from now on. And incidentally, the milk
(00:38):
futures for the current season are sitting at nine dollars twenty.
That's all good news. But even better news Jack, if
you're an organic dairy farmer, you got paid ten dollars
ninety two per kilogram of milk solids for your organic
milk this year, which is a record price, surpassing the
ten dollars eighty and the twenty two to twenty three
(01:00):
season the tenth or the fourth time organic milk has
exceeded ten dollars, and the margin between organic and normal milk,
it's just the stuff that comes off the average farmers
over three dollars, remembering that the payout for the season
we've just finished with seven eighty three. So look all
and all, look, I know some farmers who are organic
and who are a two and they will were not
(01:23):
laughing all the way to the bank. It's expensive to make,
but they'll be you know, good times.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Yeah, yeah, that's good to hear. Hey, the proposed closure
of the meat works in Timado is exacerbating the risk
that more of these announcements could be made around the country.
It feels like a bit of a theme at the moment. Day.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Well, yeah, the problem is, and you know, is this
going to be the first Is this going to be
the first domino to fall? How many other plants might
have to close due to excess capacity? And if too
many of them closed suddenly, then does the sheep met
industry or the red meat industry have enough critical mass
to run these Look at it's tough. Kate Ackland, the
(02:02):
chair of Beef and Land New Zealand, was on my
show today Jack and she's saying this is due to
a significant decrease in sheep meat prices over the last
few years, coupled with spiraling costs on the farm and
in the supply chain. Also there's the forestry argument. And
you've got to be careful where you tread on this
(02:22):
one at the moment, because the forestry industry in itself
having a really tough time at the moment. Businesses are
closing down and Gisburne it's the forestry industries are responsible
for about a third of the economic activity in the
Gisbon Tirafity Poverty Bay region. So tough times indeed. And
(02:43):
you know, the sheep farmers are saying that the forestry
is responsible for land use change. I think that slowed
down to be fair to a fair degree. The forestry,
I guess, does have two bites at the cherry jack.
There is the log prices all bent very low at
the moment, plus the carbon credits you can along the way.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
I know, at the moment it's just a proposal, But
what is your sense for if the plans go ahead
and about six hundred workers Alliance Group Smithfield Works lose
their job, what is going to be the impact on
that community? Intimado huge?
Speaker 1 (03:16):
I think it's the biggest employer, huge, And you know,
like I know, they've got to go through the consultation
process check and I don't want to sound hard hearted
about this, but this deal is done. I think from
the Alliance Group's point of view, there is a silver lining,
believe it or not, in mothballing this plant and that
Smithfield basically sits in a quite a desirable part of Timaru.
(03:38):
The city has come out to meet the meat works,
no pun intended, and my understanding is a local developer
is going to bowl it all over and build houses there,
so instead of having a real cost or an impost,
the Alliance Group will possibly come out of this on
the right side of the ledger. I think as bad
(03:59):
is for the workers of South Canterbury that there's enough
capacity in the rest of their processing plants to handle
the lambs especially that are going to come forward this season.
Remembering Jack that Southland's been hammered by the wettest September
on record, There's going to be quite a few less
lambs coming to the market this year. Beef and Lamb
set a million less prom for slaughter available this year,
(04:22):
or that number you can add to that. Because mother
nature has played a bit of a cruel hand down South.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
A million less that's that's that's extraordinary. I for one,
headn't appreciated that it was that significant. That is, there's
really something.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Ah oh well you look at the sheep numbers. Check
they are significant. We've got twenty three million sheep.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Oh yeah yeah, the ninth Yeah is just huge.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
Yeah, yeah, yeah it is. And you know, and that's
a million less lambs out of something like about fourteen
million available that were born, So it's it's quite a
big percentage. But yeah, look that the sheep numbers are
in decline. Unless the prices and I proved, especially for
lamb remembering walls a bit of a dog at the moment,
(05:04):
those numbers will continue to decline. And it's sad that
an industry on which this country was founded, wool and
meat and sheep meat, is really struggling at the moment.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Yeah, no, it really is. Hey, thank you so much,
Jamie appreciated as it always Jamie McKay, Host of the Country,
there with us this evening. Just so you know, there
has been a four point nine magnitude earthquake at the
top of the South Island this evening. It struck about
twenty five k's northeast of seven, so that's in Marlboro. Obviously,
the depth was about nine k's which is relatively shallow,
(05:36):
means a lot of people would have felt it. In fact,
I think Gnett recorded more than ten thousand people saying
they had felt the shake around the Marlborough, Nelson Wellington
regions shortly before six o'clock this evening. So anyway, we've
got the news team on that they're checking for any
reports to damage or anything. At the moment, doesn't sound
like there are major reports, but will make sure we
update you in the news very shortly. Right now, twenty
(05:58):
four minutes past six year with Jack Tame on Newstalk
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive. Listen live to
news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.