Jamie Mackay: The Country host on farmer confidence going up in the first Rabobank survey of 2025

Improved sentiment among sheep and beef farmers has helped drive a significant lift in farmer confidence, according to new data.

The first Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey of 2025 shows farmer confidence is up +44 percent - from +34 percent. 

The Country's Jamie Mackay explains further.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Jamie mckaius hosted the Countries with me tonight. Hi Jamie,
good ay, Ryan, Good to have you back. Now the
government changes prices looking pretty good, and we've got sentiment
up for our sheep and beef farmers.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Yeah. Look, this is the first Rabobank Rural Confidence survey
of twenty twenty five and it's following on from a
couple of better ones. Remember we were almost at rock
bottom at the middle of last year, so we've bounced
three in a row. This one, interestingly, Ryan, is at
a really good level plus forty four percent of farmers confident.

(00:35):
This is the second highest net confidence in the last decade,
since twenty seventeen, when we had a plus fifty two number.
This one's being driven interestingly by sheep and beef farmers
who have seen record prices for beef, vastly improved prices
for lamb and mutton. Minds you they could be better.
Wool stare no good or not strong, wills not very

(00:58):
good at all. Even beef farmers are driving the confidence
in this one. The last survey of last year was
driven by the dairy farmers. Now reasons for farmers being
confident no surprise here higher commodity prices sixty two percent,
falling interest rates twenty two percent. They're just going down
more slowly, perhaps than farmers wanted. For those who were

(01:21):
feeling a bit negative, the old hardy annual government intervention
and policies thirty seven percent. Although to be fair, Ryan,
this government couldn't be much more farmer friendly if they tried,
And the one that I would have thought would have
been the highest was rising input prices at thirty three percent.
So look, we'll take this one. I know Rabobank pretty

(01:42):
chfed with it, and I think the government will be
pretty chuffed with it. The farmers are, but unfortunately for
the farmers and the government, there's not enough of them
to vote the government in or out.

Speaker 1 (01:53):
That's right, Hey, another global do trade option tonight. We're
doing it to come back a pair back of a little.

Speaker 2 (02:01):
Well, that's what my man that Jardin says. I'll give
them a shameless plughead of commodities. Mike McIntyre one or
two percent fall. If we do get that'll be get
a result like that. It'll be a third relatively small
fall in a row. But it's been pretty damn good,
and we know that the banks and Fonterra are all
sitting at ten dollars payouts for this season. But importantly,

(02:25):
darien z came out and said they're now forecasting for
the twenty five twenty six season, ie next season, ten
dollars as well. In fact, they're that they're thrown out.
Ten dollars thirteen is their forecast milk price. Their forecast
milk price for this season is ten dollars four Interestingly,
in the past twenty five years, whenever we've had a

(02:46):
record milk price, we've never followed it. We've never backed
it up with another good one. So maybe we can
break the curse of the record milk price. So and
you know, while ten dollars sounds wonderful and historically it
will be a record, the problem with business or farming
or anything is just the cost of running things these
days is pretty expensive. So for your ten dollars thirteen

(03:10):
for next season, it's going to cost you eight dollars
fifty seven to produce that milk. So there is a
margin there, perhaps not the best margin in the past
ten years. I think that would be twenty thirteen fourteen. Similarly,
for this year, darien Zetta saying just over ten dollars,
ten dollars four, eight dollars fifty four, very similar figures

(03:31):
to produce that milk. So once again, those are reasonable margins,
certainly better than we've had in recent years, and the
futures market just to take it off, currently sitting at
ten dollars fifteen for this season. They're still down at
nine forty five for next season. But there's a lot
of water to go under the bridge or milk to
go through the vat before we worry about twenty five

(03:51):
twenty six.

Speaker 1 (03:52):
Ryan, Yeah, good point, Jamie, Thank you for that. Host
of the Country.

Speaker 2 (03:56):
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