Jamie Mackay: The Country host on the potential impact of Trump's increased tariffs on NZ

Trump surprised New Zealand businesses with a new 15 percent tariff, and experts have crunched the numbers to find out what this could mean for our key sectors.

The imposition of the new tariff on Kiwi exports is projected to cost the red meat sector an estimated $300 million and wine exporters $112 million.

The Country's Jamie Mackay explains further.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Jamie mckaye, Host of the Countries with me right now.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
Hey, Jamie, can I hear that You've got to ask
Stuart Nash the most important question? When is the announcing
his candidacy.

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Well, I feel like Stuart su was doing such a
fantastic job of kind of teasing us along with this
and just really kind of, you know, sprooking New Zealand first.
I'm almost I don't really want it to come to
an end, do you.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Well, I just think him and Shane Jones would be fun,
as I said to you a couple of weeks ago,
as a one two punch combination.

Speaker 1 (00:27):
I'm going to take a bet with you in all seriousness,
it's not going to happen.

Speaker 2 (00:31):
Yeah, I'll take a bet with you, Heather, you think
it's going to happen. I think he'll stand for New
Zealand first.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
Yeah, I think he won't stand for New Zealand first
because he's too much of a threat to Winston and
Shane because he's actually quite good.

Speaker 2 (00:43):
What's your theory, Well, Winston will eventually die, although we've
been saying that for twenty years. Shane's the heir apparent.
But yeah, I don't know. Maybe he may be a
threat to Shane, he's not a threat to Winston at
the stage. So I just think he's a colorful character
for a former labor cabinet minister. He's very centrist, talks

(01:04):
a lot of common sense. I'd like to see him back.
And the other thing about him here that is he's
got a very good background and commercial forestrand with carbon
farming and all the debates were having about climate change
and all that sort of stuff. Having someone around a
cabinet table who knows something about that would be an advantage.

Speaker 1 (01:21):
Okay, now tell me what I'd totally agree with you
on that. Tell me what you think about Alliance Group
and what's going on here.

Speaker 2 (01:27):
Well, it's been Alliance Group's been in a lot of
trouble recently. Poor management's probably part of its downfall. But
the long awaited deal to recapitalize the debt laden Alliance
Group appears to be nearing. There was a story in
the Irish Times over the weekend that Dawn meets a
large Irish meat company's going to stump up two hundred

(01:49):
and seventy million dollars for a seventy percent I repeat
that seventy percent stake in Alliance which up till now
or is currently the country's only fully far owned red
meat cooperative. It's the equivalent I guess of Fonterra. Now
Dawn Meats a slightly larger company and turnover and volume
than the Alliance Group, but would certainly add some I

(02:12):
guess mph to it. But they've just got to get
this past the shareholders. And what's the use of being
a cooperative if you've only got a thirty percent stake
in the company. Remember the other big former cooperative and
it is still a cooperative, as Silverfern Farms, which has
done a fifty to fifty joint venture with Shanghai Mailing.
It's rescued it from the debtor's court in a lot

(02:36):
of ways. But even now we're hearing that Silver Fern
mit Silverfern Farms might have some some profitability issues as well.
So look, the red meat's a tough industry. The red
meat industry here, there's a tough industry at the moment
because while farmers are getting record prices, that doesn't follow
through for the processes. There's less and less stock due
to land use, change, carbon farming, you name it, whatever's happening.

(03:00):
Having to compete and their margins are being cut. So
watch the space. I think we're going to get an
announcement on Tuesday about the recapitalization of the Alliance Group.

Speaker 1 (03:09):
Interesting, okay, Jamie listener, We starting to get some kind
of an idea of what the Trump tariff's the impact
it's going to have on our agriculture sectors and the
culture sector, you know, the experts that we're send into
the US.

Speaker 2 (03:20):
Well, he was announced last Friday. Obviously some people have
been doing some number crunching. I better credit Neil Wallace
from New Zealand Farmers Weekly, who's done some sums on
this one. The fifteen percent tariffs going to cost the
red meat sector and estimated three hundred million dollars. Wine's
the other big loser one hundred and twelve million. We

(03:41):
don't know. Dairy hasn't quite figured it out yet how
much it's going to cost dairy. But dairy is not
as dependent on the US as red meat and winer.
So look, we sent a lot of stuff to the
US last year two point two billion of meat, one
point two billion a dairy, seven hundred ninety million of wine.

(04:02):
They took forty six percent of our beef eighteen percent
of our lamb. And the thing is, you know, we've
gone from ten to fifteen. The Aussies have stayed at ten,
as has Argentina. I think it's Argentina and that just
makes them more competitive getting their meat into the US.

(04:22):
But they need, they desperately need our grinding beef to
eat to produce the hamburgers. They eat three each per
week while they're fat.

Speaker 1 (04:32):
Hush but true, Jamie, thank you very much, Jamie mckaye,
host of the country. Three hamburgers a week? Heck, I
reckon I'd be lucky to eat three hamburgers in the
space of three months. That wow. Anyway, Yeah, as jis
is no wonder the fat.

Speaker 2 (04:51):
For more from Heather Duplessy Alan Drive, listen live to
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the podcast on iHeartRadio.