November 25, 2025 • 5 mins
Fonterra's forewarning farmers falling global dairy prices could hit their bottom lines.
The dairy co-op recently cut its seasonal farmgate milk payout midpoint forecast - from $10 to $9.50.
It paid out $10.16 last season.
The Country's Jamie Mackay explained further.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Jamie McKay, hosts of the Countries of That's Hello, Jamie,
ok he and I.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Can tell you it'll be some farmers in Canterbury who
might be doing some assaults at the moment. It means
the demise of ECAM. They haven't exactly been farmer friendly.
And I must say, as someone who's domiciled in Dunedin,
what the hell the Otago Regional Council is doing running
the buses that chug around Dunedin mostly empty? I might add,
(00:24):
instead of the needon city counts or bod you know,
it begs It begs the question who should actually be
running them? And I think I just hope they don't
replace this bureaucracy with a worse one. But anyhow, a
farewell to the regional council. Shane Jones said he'd do
it and he has.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
Don't let the door hit you on the way out,
we say to them, Yeah, okay, Fonterra. So this was expected,
wasn't it.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
Yep, Farming's worst kept secret is out. It's out a
week early. They were going to come out with their
quarterly update early next week. But I spoke to Myles
Hurrel on my show today. He said, look, we did
the numbers over the weekend. If you've got the information,
we don't know you're sitting on it. We Mars will
get out there and tell the farmers. So that midpoint
is now nine dollars fifty. The range is nine to ten.
(01:12):
It still begs the question why they started And I
threw this at Miles and he duck for cover a weebit.
But they started the season at eight dollars to eleven,
and logic would suggest the midpoint there is nine to fifty,
but they chose a mid point of ten, remembering they
paid ten dollars sixteen last season. Also, interestingly, today's cut
(01:33):
is the first mid season cut Fonterra has made to
its forecasts since twenty three and that's because we've had
a rising plane of prices whole milk powder. As we
all know, we've had seven drops in a row. It's
twenty percent off its peak back in May. The other
problem is when the prices go up, the taps get
turned around turned on. Not only here in New Zealand.
(01:56):
New Zealand farmers are about four percent up on production,
but also right around the world where they divert. For instance,
in America, cheap grain into milk production. Look as we said,
we knew this was coming. A and Z cut its
forecast to nine sixty five. Recently the B and Z
went to nine to fifty. No surprise at all. It
does affect other farmers supplying other dairy companies as well, Heather,
(02:20):
because the likes of sin Lay milk and Westland milk
products basically peg what they paid the farmers to the
Fonterra milk price. So if I can stay at nine
to fifty, well, I think we'll still do, Okay, the Warriors,
it might sneak below.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
That, Yeah, yeah, fair enough. What's going with McDonald's and
the price of beef.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Well, I just came across some numbers and I think
I've got a credit are n Z for this story
about McDonald's and how effectively important it is for New
Zealand and especially the beef industry. Ninety percent of their
menu and the one hundred and seventy restaurants around the
country is sourced from local farms. That's good. It's spending
(03:00):
two hundred and thirty five million here in New Zealand
on local produce beef, cheese buns. But it also exports them.
So last year, the American owned franchise or subsidiary used
six thousand tons of locally sauced beef for sale here domestically,
but it exported thirty thousand tons of it, making up
(03:22):
wait for this, ten percent of New Zealand's total beef
exports are responsible for what McDonald's are doing. They serve.
Here's an interesting stat for your heather, seventy million people
a day plus Donald Trump, and they use two percent
of the world's beef. And the burgers or the beef's
twenty percent more expensive than it was at the start
of the year. If you want to know what that
(03:44):
means for your cheeseburger, the patty that goes inside your
cheeseburger is now ten cents more expensive than it was
at the start of the year.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
Now it all adds up. I suppose, Hey, how rich
is Sue's redmain. What do you think about that?
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Oh right, just about to go and grab dinner? He hither.
I thought we were over, but Sue's redmate up mostly
was Sue's Redmain.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
I'm sorry, four million dollars worth of property. That's not
doing too bad. It's a life goal, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Yeah, but we've got to were bit careful with this one.
The Herald did a report on this one over the
weekend or something like that. So Sus is topping the
rich list. Christopher Luckson's second, Barbara Kurruger, another farmer, is
in third place, and I beg I threw the question
out there as Parliament returning to the sixties, the domain
for rich farmers. Well, I don't think it really is,
(04:33):
because Andrew Hoggard was also up on the rich list,
but he said when they worked out the value of
his farm, they forgot to take off the helf that
his mum and dad owed, and they also forgot to
take off all the money he owed to the bank.
I don't know SUS's personal farming operation, and it's a
very good one. They do some great work where they're farming.
(04:53):
They're a very good farming operation. How they may well
be debt free and have a farm worth eighteen million,
but I suspect that may not be the case. All
we can say is that Hogart is richer than Winston.
Winston's eleventh are on the list, Willie Jackson's the top
labor guy at seventeenth, and surprise, surprise, no green or
to party. Mari MPs make the Top twenty.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
Doesn't surprise anyone. Jamie, thanks very much, really appreciate it.
Jamie mckaie, host of the Country.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news Talks it'd b from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.
Jamie McKay, hosts of the Countries of That's Hello, Jamie,
ok he and I.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Can tell you it'll be some farmers in Canterbury who
might be doing some assaults at the moment. It means
the demise of ECAM. They haven't exactly been farmer friendly.
And I must say, as someone who's domiciled in Dunedin,
what the hell the Otago Regional Council is doing running
the buses that chug around Dunedin mostly empty? I might add,
(00:24):
instead of the needon city counts or bod you know,
it begs It begs the question who should actually be
running them? And I think I just hope they don't
replace this bureaucracy with a worse one. But anyhow, a
farewell to the regional council. Shane Jones said he'd do
it and he has.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
Don't let the door hit you on the way out,
we say to them, Yeah, okay, Fonterra. So this was expected,
wasn't it.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
Yep, Farming's worst kept secret is out. It's out a
week early. They were going to come out with their
quarterly update early next week. But I spoke to Myles
Hurrel on my show today. He said, look, we did
the numbers over the weekend. If you've got the information,
we don't know you're sitting on it. We Mars will
get out there and tell the farmers. So that midpoint
is now nine dollars fifty. The range is nine to ten.
(01:12):
It still begs the question why they started And I
threw this at Miles and he duck for cover a weebit.
But they started the season at eight dollars to eleven,
and logic would suggest the midpoint there is nine to fifty,
but they chose a mid point of ten, remembering they
paid ten dollars sixteen last season. Also, interestingly, today's cut
(01:33):
is the first mid season cut Fonterra has made to
its forecasts since twenty three and that's because we've had
a rising plane of prices whole milk powder. As we
all know, we've had seven drops in a row. It's
twenty percent off its peak back in May. The other
problem is when the prices go up, the taps get
turned around turned on. Not only here in New Zealand.
(01:56):
New Zealand farmers are about four percent up on production,
but also right around the world where they divert. For instance,
in America, cheap grain into milk production. Look as we said,
we knew this was coming. A and Z cut its
forecast to nine sixty five. Recently the B and Z
went to nine to fifty. No surprise at all. It
does affect other farmers supplying other dairy companies as well, Heather,
(02:20):
because the likes of sin Lay milk and Westland milk
products basically peg what they paid the farmers to the
Fonterra milk price. So if I can stay at nine
to fifty, well, I think we'll still do, Okay, the Warriors,
it might sneak below.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
That, Yeah, yeah, fair enough. What's going with McDonald's and
the price of beef.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Well, I just came across some numbers and I think
I've got a credit are n Z for this story
about McDonald's and how effectively important it is for New
Zealand and especially the beef industry. Ninety percent of their
menu and the one hundred and seventy restaurants around the
country is sourced from local farms. That's good. It's spending
(03:00):
two hundred and thirty five million here in New Zealand
on local produce beef, cheese buns. But it also exports them.
So last year, the American owned franchise or subsidiary used
six thousand tons of locally sauced beef for sale here domestically,
but it exported thirty thousand tons of it, making up
(03:22):
wait for this, ten percent of New Zealand's total beef
exports are responsible for what McDonald's are doing. They serve.
Here's an interesting stat for your heather, seventy million people
a day plus Donald Trump, and they use two percent
of the world's beef. And the burgers or the beef's
twenty percent more expensive than it was at the start
of the year. If you want to know what that
(03:44):
means for your cheeseburger, the patty that goes inside your
cheeseburger is now ten cents more expensive than it was
at the start of the year.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
Now it all adds up. I suppose, Hey, how rich
is Sue's redmain. What do you think about that?
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Oh right, just about to go and grab dinner? He hither.
I thought we were over, but Sue's redmate up mostly
was Sue's Redmain.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
I'm sorry, four million dollars worth of property. That's not
doing too bad. It's a life goal, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Yeah, but we've got to were bit careful with this one.
The Herald did a report on this one over the
weekend or something like that. So Sus is topping the
rich list. Christopher Luckson's second, Barbara Kurruger, another farmer, is
in third place, and I beg I threw the question
out there as Parliament returning to the sixties, the domain
for rich farmers. Well, I don't think it really is,
(04:33):
because Andrew Hoggard was also up on the rich list,
but he said when they worked out the value of
his farm, they forgot to take off the helf that
his mum and dad owed, and they also forgot to
take off all the money he owed to the bank.
I don't know SUS's personal farming operation, and it's a
very good one. They do some great work where they're farming.
(04:53):
They're a very good farming operation. How they may well
be debt free and have a farm worth eighteen million,
but I suspect that may not be the case. All
we can say is that Hogart is richer than Winston.
Winston's eleventh are on the list, Willie Jackson's the top
labor guy at seventeenth, and surprise, surprise, no green or
to party. Mari MPs make the Top twenty.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
Doesn't surprise anyone. Jamie, thanks very much, really appreciate it.
Jamie mckaie, host of the Country.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news Talks it'd b from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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