Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on the economic impacts of Donald Trump's presidency

Donald Trump is set to return to the White House - leaving economists everywhere to wonder what comes next.

Trump won't take office until next January, but his proposed policies regarding business, trade and tariffs have people guessing.

NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann explains it could be an interesting four years.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now Donald Trump has promised Americans he's going to save
the economy and deal with the cost of living. Liam
dan is the Herald's business editor at large and with US. Now, hey, Liam,
so is he just going to do it through tax
cuts and tariffs?

Speaker 2 (00:10):
Yeah? Yeah, it sounds like that's the formula. People are
scratching the head of bit as to how it adds up,
because he's promised one account, one count I saw was
twelve different kinds of tax cut on the campaign trail,
which talied up to if he did them all something
like three trillion dollars out of the US revenue government

(00:33):
revenue over the next ten years. Three trillion dollar US
dollars is quite a lot, and that of course means
you need to well you either need to fund it
from somewhere, you need to borrow a lot more, which
is why bonds.

Speaker 1 (00:44):
But he's also promising to pay down debt.

Speaker 2 (00:46):
Yeah. See that. There was a British Prime minister who
tried to say all that stuff and it didn't work.
Trust was sunk by the bond markets because the numbers
didn't add up. And the bond markets, as they say,
are the most powerful thing in the universe or in
the known world. Look, yeah, so it's going to be
very interesting. And I guess what the issue is how

(01:08):
much he decides to worry about everything he said on
the campaign trail. There's going to be some more tariffs,
and there's going to be some tax cuts of some sort,
so probably corporate, and maybe that will stimulate the economy
or the rest inside America. Putting aside the tariffs.

Speaker 1 (01:23):
I mean, also, his timing is great, right, So he
is taking over presumably as the American economy starts to
pick up, as we start to get inflation under control,
so within a matter of months people will be feeling
better anyway.

Speaker 2 (01:34):
Yeah, well, tariffs would be a one off, one off bump.
They are inflat they would be inflationary.

Speaker 1 (01:39):
I mean, he's not going to go aheap with the
tariff tariffs.

Speaker 2 (01:42):
So lam, well, the sixty percent is hard to imagine.
You know, you'd think he would have to do something
to sort of you know, having having talked about them
so much. But I mean, I think the numbers are details, right,
He's not a details guy. So yeah, I think as
long as he makes some move there, you know. But yeah,
so look, does it does it fix the economy. He's

(02:04):
certainly in the right place in the cycle. So it
wasn't a great place for Joe Biden because well, you know,
for the Democrats, because inflation is back in the box technically,
but it doesn't feel like it to people for a while. Yeah,
because you know, you can tell people that the economy
is great, and I think that was part of the
problem that you know, people were being told that the
US economy was great and they didn't feel like it

(02:26):
was great, and so it just played into that whole
narrative of being told by the establishment that they should
stop complaining.

Speaker 1 (02:32):
Yeah, totally, it's going to be an interesting one, as
you were just saying to me off there, and we
have to wait until he's an office to really see
what it does.

Speaker 2 (02:39):
A lot of speculation over the next few weeks and months,
and of course we could go around in circles in
New Zealand worrying about tariffs and what may or may
not happen for wine growers and so on. But you know,
and and the impact on China. But look at the moment,
markets are very happy, and they're happy because there was
a clear, clean result and also they can wipe tax

(03:01):
hikes off the table and more regulation off the table.
So your Kiwi savers up and you probably don't have
to worry about it till at least January twenty or
whenever the inauguration is. So that's your consolation life. You
don't like Trump, just and enjoy the market.

Speaker 1 (03:14):
Run yeah to take the money, Liam, Thank you very much,
appreciate it. Liam Down, the Herald's Business editor at large.
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