Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on inflation expectations going up in new data

Consumer confidence has gone back up - but new data indicates people are also worried about inflation.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan survey shows consumer confidence rose 5 points to 98.3 in April - but inflation expectations soared 0.5pts to 4.7 percent, the highest reading since July 2023.

NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann unpacked the factors contributing to this data.

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Liam Dan, the Herald's Business editor at large, is with
us a Liam, Hey, yeah, did you enjoy Toto last night?

Speaker 2 (00:05):
I did enjoy Toto.

Speaker 1 (00:06):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (00:06):
Yeah. Bit of you know, yacht rock, bit of eighties
yacht rock.

Speaker 1 (00:10):
I would have thought it it's a bit like soft
glam rock.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
Well, a lot of it was. It was more. It
was more of that than I thought. I mean, it
depends whether they're playing their late seventies stuff or their
early eighties stuff. But gee, they were good, good musicians,
were they?

Speaker 1 (00:23):
How many of their songs did you know?

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Though? I knew about five, which maybe means I knew
about one more than.

Speaker 1 (00:29):
We And then so hold the line Rosanna, Africa, Georgie Paulgi.

Speaker 2 (00:33):
Yeah, there's one called ninety nine.

Speaker 1 (00:36):
Oh you knew ninety nine?

Speaker 2 (00:37):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (00:37):
I didn't know that one.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Yeah. And there's another one I forgot the name, but
it was sampled on a big house track in the
nineteen nineties. That one of the big slow ballads.

Speaker 1 (00:45):
You know what I've been listening to all day today,
the one that goes Pamela. Oh yeah, that was the
other one that.

Speaker 2 (00:52):
Some of it was classic hair metal, wasn't it.

Speaker 1 (00:54):
Yeah, Pamela was cool. And and it's always weird. You
go to a concert and you think, I mean, obviously
loved Africa, that was just peak everything. But there's always
a weird song that you just love afterwards and you
thrash on the Spotify. So New Zealand's listening of Pamela
by Toto is going up today markedly. I bet it's
totally based to me. And by the way, you've written

(01:14):
a the reason I'm asking you about this is written
a review on the Herald now, so your moon lighting
is some sort of a music for Shionado for the Herald.

Speaker 2 (01:23):
Yeah, well they haven't. They've got a very hip, young
entertainment team, so there hasn't got too many people wanting
to do the dad rock.

Speaker 1 (01:28):
Did nobody want to do the daggy Dads?

Speaker 2 (01:30):
Right? So I'm picking it and share it with me.

Speaker 1 (01:34):
I'll do it with you hard out. Those young ones
don't know what they're missing out on. It was there
ever a time as good as Africa by Toto. It's
spark Arena last night. Now listen, let's talk about inflation. Okay,
So I see consumer confidence has gone up, which is good,
but inflation expectations have gone up as well. And people
who are expecting inflation to go up are wrong.

Speaker 2 (01:52):
Well, yeah, that's kind of kind of the theory. They
might be proved right. Things might change, they might change,
but at the moment, consumers are still really feeling the
acute inflation pressure. I mean, there's no doubt about that.
And so the latest consumer confidence confidence was up a bit.
That's good, we'll take it. This is the A and
Z Roy Morgan consumer confidence. But yeah, consumers also said

(02:15):
they were worried about inflation. Now, you know, Sharon zol And,
the chief economist A and Z, has sort of written
about this in a report that the points she's trying
to make us and I guess I've been trying to
make and a lot of people are trying to make,
is that inflation probably won't be a problem later this year.
And that's because we're expecting the economy is not going
to pick up as much as hopefully it's going.

Speaker 1 (02:35):
To take a bit of a dive as a result
of this.

Speaker 2 (02:36):
Well, I mean, it's hopefully not going back to recession.
But it's just that that, you know that the upswing
that we're looking for is taking much longer. You know,
all the turmoil around the world sort of that the
global growth being dampened just will have an effect on
New Zealand, even if there isn't direct impacts from the town.

Speaker 1 (02:55):
Now, does this thing call into question these surveys where
we go out and ask a bunch of normal punters
if they expect inflation to go up, and simply because
inflation is bad and Trump's terriffs are bad, they go, yeah,
is there any value in there?

Speaker 2 (03:06):
Well, I mean to the extent that they can be
self fulfilling. I mean that there's always questions about these surveys,
that's for sure. But you know, if consumers really believe something,
it affects their behavior and then the behavior goes and
you know, that's how spending goes. So if consumers think
things are improving, then maybe they'll get out and spend that. Yeah,

(03:27):
it's still still fairly low levels of confidence, but you know,
that little bit of upswing was probably a good thing
on balance.

Speaker 1 (03:34):
What are you listening to on the way home?

Speaker 2 (03:36):
Oh, it's good question. I'll be on my bike. I
can't listen to anything on the bike, it's too dangerous.

Speaker 1 (03:40):
Does that really? Can you not drive and listen to music.

Speaker 2 (03:43):
On the on the cycle.

Speaker 1 (03:44):
Ah, Yes, we've about a bicycle. Yeah, bicycle because you've
got to leather jacket. And I thought you were cool
and going.

Speaker 2 (03:49):
On a motorbike. No, no, I'm not an electric bike.

Speaker 1 (03:52):
No, it's probably better if you don't because we need
you to hear the cars.

Speaker 2 (03:55):
But yeah, it could have been. Toto could have.

Speaker 1 (03:57):
Been if he didn't, if he wanted to die. Liam,
thank you, go and enjoy your long weekend. That's Liam Dwan,
the Herald's Business editor at large and also music reviewer.

Speaker 2 (04:04):
Now. For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live
to News Talks it B from four pm weekdays, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio