Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on what Budget 2025 means for the economy

Experts believe Budget Day is a useful tool for outlining the latest forecasts for the economy.

Treasury has responded positively so far - with GDP predicted to rise, unemployment predicted to drop and house prices predicted to go up again.

NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann explains further.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Liam Dan, the Herald's Business editor at large, is with
us Lebra Hallo. Yeah, either right, what do you reckon
of the budget?

Speaker 2 (00:04):
What do I reckon of the budget? Oh? Gee, yeah,
some good stuff and some maybe yeah, like some not
so good stuff. But look, I was pleased to see
the depreciation tax tax there, and there's you know, they
put growth budget at the top of things, and you
know they've got to do something that might actually help
help drive productivity and create some growth. So that that's

(00:27):
a positive.

Speaker 1 (00:29):
Yeah, And is that it? That's the only positive? Any
more negatives? Like, what have you got?

Speaker 2 (00:35):
Give me some Well, look, you know, if you want
to start looking at the actual numbers below the hood,
there's plenty of negatives. There's no question there. I mean,
I was looking at the Treasury forecasts. If you look
at the top line numbers, they all look pretty good
if you if you take technical face value, which we
probably shouldn't, but you know, two point nine percent average
growth over the next four years, three percent growth in

(00:55):
twenty seven. House prices are going to grow six point
seven percent.

Speaker 1 (01:01):
It's a little bit rosy.

Speaker 2 (01:02):
That is very rosy, and it looks you know, look
it they're not taking too much of a punt on
what happens in the in the you know, the tariff
turmoil and all that sort of stuff. But you know,
the rosy stuff, we could take that. But when you
when you look under the hood, I guess the issue
is that the government's just in that tight spot that
we've talked about before. So there are certainly people saying

(01:25):
they should have done more to cut back and try
and work a bit harder to balance the books. I mean,
there's no no surplus at all on the horizon if
you use the traditional you know, operating balance measure, the
Obergel measure, and you don't just exclude acc which is
the ober Gel X. It's a bit like sort of
saying that, you know, you know, I'm not spending too

(01:46):
much money as long as they don't count the records
I'm buying every week or something like that. So you know,
it's you can you can ring fence anything. But yeah,
so look, yeah, it's a difficult one. I mean, I
think it's going to be a difficult one to sell
in some ways to a key We savor was a
bit of give and take and maybe a step in
the right direction.

Speaker 1 (02:07):
I mean, I think they've kind of balanced things so
that they you know, a bit of criticism in a
little bit or not hate. Liam. Thank you as always
really appreciated mate. Enjoy evening. That's Liam Dan, the Herald's
business editor at ladd.

Speaker 2 (02:17):
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