Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large speculates about upcoming GDP

The GDP for Q1 is set to drop next week - and experts are feeling confident about the state of the economy.

Predictions from economists claim figures will pick up this time round.

NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann speculates further.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Liam Dan, the Herald's business editor at largest with us
I lam good ether. Okay, so what are you expecting
for the GDP number.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
Well, wouldn't have thought it would be that flash, But
looking through all the economist's forecasts, they've just they've perked
up a bit and they're all they've all upgraded their
forecast for the quarter to zero point seven percent for
the quarter, which is the same as we had in
the last quarter of twenty twenty four and which is
pretty good. So the Reserve Bank had picked zero point

(00:28):
four for the first quarter, and mostly the economists were
thinking the same thing. But we had some fairly good
numbers business sort of business finance and business employment numbers
on Monday, so they just they think it might be
a bit stronger. But we do have to bear in
mind that that first quarter, it seems like a long
time ago now, goes right up to Donald Trump's liberation Day,

(00:54):
but not you know, doesn't capture how everyone was feeling
afterwards when confidence took a bit of a knock. So yeah,
it's possible it's actually slowed down a bit since then.

Speaker 1 (01:04):
Even why are they lifting the forecasts.

Speaker 2 (01:08):
Well, they're just looking at some of what they call
the high frequency data. So manufacturing production, that sort of
thing was slightly better than they expected. Obviously, everyone's everyone's
talking about the rural sector going great guns, but that
takes some time to come through. But yeah, just a
little bit more upbeat around some of the manufacturing and

(01:29):
some of that core business stuff. So that's positive. But
you know, as we sort of sort of day, you know,
retail spending still really flat to backwards, so the consumer end,
you know, for those of us in the cities and
in retail and hospitality, that's where the economy is really
still doing it tough. It all kind of matters in

(01:50):
a way, even though it's historic. Because we're talking about
whether we get another rate cut on July nine, and
the of feeling as if it's landed at zero point
seven percent for the corner and it's better than the
Reserve Bank expected, they might decide to pause and just
wait and see and maybe cut again in August. Yeah,
perhaps so.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
And this retail number that we've got out today, which
isn't all together flash can we put most of it
down to the petrol prices a.

Speaker 2 (02:16):
Good chunk of it. But even when you strip out
the fact that petrol prices were cheaper. You know, you
still when you look at nominal terms, you've still got
some inflation going on. So still some of those core
retail sectors pretty much like it was zero point two down,
which is basically flat, but still not great. Anyone you
know in the retail sector or the hospitality sector looking

(02:38):
for signs that we've turned a corner there. It's just
hasn't happened yet. Seems to be taking forever, doesn't it.

Speaker 1 (02:46):
Yeah, totally. Hey, thank you very much, Liam, I really
appreciate your time. It's Liam Dan, the Herald's Business editor
at large.

Speaker 2 (02:52):
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