Nick Brunsdon: Infometrics Principal Economist on unemployment reaching 5.3 percent in the September quarter

One expert is warning the job market won't get easier any time soon.

The latest Stats NZ data shows the unemployment rate has reached an almost nine-year high of 5.3 percent in the September quarter.

That's 160,000 people looking for a job, and another 138,000 wanting more work.

Infometrics principal economist Nick Brunsdon says we're on the cusp of a recovery - but not a quick one.

"Our forecast is for it to hit 4.6 by the end of next year - and that's not a low unemployment rate by any means. It's still gonna be pretty uncomfortable."

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Together dup c Ellen.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
Unemployment. Let's talk about that it has hit five point
three percent. This was of course expected. It is now
at its highest level since twenty sixteen. Nick Brunsdon is
Infametrics principle economist and with us, now, hey, Nicky, Heather,
we hit the peak.

Speaker 3 (00:16):
We think we're hit the peak. Yeah, so it did
creep up this quarter, but that was to be expected.
And we've got a few positive signs, a few very
small green shoots that might give us confidence that we
have at the peak.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
There is a feeling it might go up, just tack up,
just marginally in this quarter still to five point four.
Do you agree or disagree?

Speaker 3 (00:35):
I think it's possible, but I think we've got a
few We've had a number of good signs. We've had
two or three months of job growth, We've had two
or three months of job ad growth.

Speaker 1 (00:43):
So there's signs out there that things are getting better.

Speaker 3 (00:46):
And when we look into the numbers today, we say
that employers are kind of holding on to staff, they're
keeping their paid hours up even if the work's not
quite there, and so that says that ultimately employers see
see growth around the corner.

Speaker 2 (00:57):
Yeah, there is also some talk of the fact that
it will sit at this kind of higher, this elevated
level for a but even possibly over five percent for
a while, like as in for another year.

Speaker 3 (01:07):
Do you agree, Yeah, I think something like that. Expected
our forecasters for it to four point six by the
end of next year. And you know, that's not a
low unemployment rate by any means. It's still going to
be pretty uncomfortable.

Speaker 2 (01:20):
And then when does it finally return to what we
would consider kind.

Speaker 1 (01:22):
Of normal levels. That could be two or three more years.

Speaker 3 (01:26):
I think the thing is that we are starting to
recover or on the cusp of the recovery, but it's
not going to be a quick one. And so for
those that are in a job, it's quite a positive picture,
and for those that are not in a job, it's
a pretty ugly picture that it's going to take a while.

Speaker 2 (01:40):
What are you reading into that underutilization rate.

Speaker 1 (01:44):
I think that's what we'd expect.

Speaker 3 (01:46):
It is a tough labor market, and people realize that
they can't you know, they're not going to get the
hours that they want, and it's going to be really
hard to get the job that they want, and so
they are they are struggling to get what they need
out of the labor market.

Speaker 2 (01:57):
Ultimately, yeah, hey, listen, thank you very much like a
she had a Nick Brunsdon Informetrix principal economist. For more
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