Nick Wilson: Otago University senior researcher on the number of Kiwis calling for the Govt to prepare for the end of the world

A new survey has revealed a significant number of Kiwis want the Government to prepare for catastrophic events that could bring about the end of the world.

New University of Otago research shows two-thirds of respondents believe the Government should draft action plans for threats such as a nuclear war, bioweapons or mass famine and supply chain collapse.

Professor Nick Wilson, senior researcher at the Faculty of Medicine’s Department of Public Health, says New Zealand's well-placed to weather out a nuclear winter - but there's plenty the nation's not prepared for.

"Although we're a great producer of food, all that food production relies on diesel, which is imported. So we haven't got a single biofuel refinery that could keep our agricultural machinery going, for example." 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
If the end of the world comes tomorrow, and look,
let's hope it doesn't, but just how prepared are we
for this? A new survey from the University of Otago
shows more than two thirds of us would like the
government to have contingency plans for worldwide catastrophes. We're talking
nuclear fallout, We're talking mass famines, we're talking deadly diseases.
Professor Nick Wilson is the University of Otaga Department of

(00:21):
Public Health. Nick good evening, Hi, Ryan, So the nuclear
fallout thing has always fascinated me, like, if there was
nuclear war in the Northern Hemisphere, then we would have
a nuclear winter here. Do we have anything like a
plan to deal with something like that in New Zealand?

Speaker 2 (00:40):
Yeah, unfortunately we have no plans. I mean back in
the nineteen eighties, actually, some very good work by the
New Zealand Planning Council was done in a whole book
with a whole lot of background research was done. But
that's getting somewhat out of date, and so we really
need to update that type of thinking because out of

(01:00):
all the countries in the world, New Zealand's in the
top few places that would weather out a nuclear winter,
you know, relatively well, I mean the being surrounded by
ocean has a big modifying effect and being far away
from the northern hemisphere as well. But we're really not
prepared for dealing with the trade collapse that would occur.

(01:25):
And so although we're a great producer of food, all
that food production relies on diesel, which is important. So
we haven't got a single bio fuel refinery that could
keep our agricultural machinery going, for example.

Speaker 1 (01:40):
So those are the kind of contingencies we need to
be thinking about. I've always been told that the most
realistic or the most likely scenario that would soon happen
would be a blockade of time wan the time one's
straight closers, trade is massively affected for us and we
put out of business.

Speaker 2 (02:00):
Yeah, we're a super trade dependent country, and that's good
in terms of efficiency. Is the whole just in time
sort of supply chain thing, but it really if you
have a whole wide range of scenarios, not just regional conflict,
but you know, if there's a big volcanic eruption around

(02:22):
Indonesia that could really interrupt trade. So we just haven't
got the sort of planning that would help us through
even for a few difficult months where we've hardly got
any stored fuel in the country and definitely have no
capacity to produce any fort ourselves.

Speaker 1 (02:40):
Well, good thing we're digging from drilling for it.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
Well, electricity is a more reliable sort of energy source,
So the progress that's been done on electrification is actually
a bright spot in our resiliency preparations.

Speaker 1 (02:57):
But if we have if the let's say, nuclear winter,
then you don't see the sun, do you.

Speaker 2 (03:03):
Well, there's been a lot of sophisticated modeling done on this,
and nuclear winter is an absolute disaster for the northern hemisphere,
where where you know, honestly billions of people could die.
But here in New Zealand, it's it would be reduced
crop yields, but we'd still have plenty of food and

(03:26):
we've we've done some research on that, so it would
be tough, but you know, we'd still have enough food
to feed ourselves and recover.

Speaker 1 (03:36):
And then I suppose would everybody try and come here.
That would be your next problem, wouldn't that.

Speaker 2 (03:41):
Yeah, there's all these sort of things that need to
be thought through. Though New Zealand is one of the
remotest places and you know, most refugees would probably try
and go to a closer place like Australia. But yeah,
the you know, these simple things which you know can
be worked through and planned for, there's just been nothing done.

(04:03):
And the same for volcanic winters, where we know that
these occur because there's been multiple ones over the last
two thousand years, and they could also reduce some light
and productivity, and we have no plans ATWKLE for volcanic
winter Nick.

Speaker 1 (04:21):
In your survey, did you ask people what they're most
scared of, what sort of mass casualty event they're most
worried about.

Speaker 2 (04:30):
No, these were just a few questions in a larger survey,
but it did show that people were interested in some
type of planning, but also in having a commission or
an agency that could monitor and report on these type
of risks because some of these risks their profile is

(04:50):
changing quite rapidly. You know, the risk of nuclear war
may be going up, definitely. The concern about bioengineered pandemics
is going up with improvements in biotechnology and artificial intelligence,
So we really need to keep our eye on the
ball on what's happening so we can be as best
prepared as possible.

Speaker 1 (05:11):
Nick appreciate your time, Professor at Wilson University of o
Target Department of Public Health. For more from Heather Duplessy
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