Perspective with Ryan Bridge: Can we appreciate the good economic news coming out?

I know you shouldn't count your chickens before they hatch, but can we just take a minute to look at the good economic news coming out?

Government books aside, tomorrow's GDP read will show we bounced back with a spring in Q3 - close to 1 percent growth, they reckon.

What's more, that shocking read for Q2 should be revised down because it wasn't actually as bad as the topline number we were given to begin with.

Today, consumer confidence is on the rebound. This is according to the Westpac McDermott Miller survey.

It's up 5.6 points - to its highest level this year. Still slightly below 100 - which means more are still glass-half empty than full, but it's going in the right direction.

As are Seek job ads and as are most of the numbers that move first when a recovery is underway. 

Now, I say all of this completely aware that we've been here before and fired a blank. We've had many a false dawn and false start.

But barring any major cock-ups, this recovery feels like its real and happening.

The missing ingredient of course is house prices, which are either sideways or backwards for most regions. That's the liquor in your Irish coffee that really gets things moving on the economic front.

But this recovery will happen without it.

It won't be soaring property prices that give birth this recovery, it won't start in an auction room with the hammer going down on a $44 million two-beddy in Sandringham. 

What's going to drive this recovery, and make it a very gradual one, is confidence in our agricultural exporters, our lower mortgage rates, and, I think - more than anything - a feeling that we're just sick of being in this position.

The ironic truth of it is that in order to get us out of the malaise, we must spend money, rather than save it. We must go out and buy stuff.

So this Christmas, take that confidence to your nearest shopping mall.

Tonight, I'm doing exactly that. Westfield is open till 10pm. I've found a tent, I've been eyeing it up today, and I'm ready to push play on summer and on spending and an economic Christmas miracle.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
I know you shouldn't count your chickens before they hatch,
but can we just take a minute, just a little second,
to look, appreciate, and celebrate the good economic news that's
coming out at the moment. Government books aside because that
wasn't so great yesterday. Tomorrow's GDP read will show that
we bounced back with a little spring in our step
for quarter three close to one percent growth. They reckon

(00:22):
what's more, tomorrow that shocking read for quarter two that
we all hated had us diving under our desks. That
should be revised down because it wasn't actually as bad
as the top line number that we were given to
begin with. Today, consumer confidence is on the rebound. New
Zealand fantastic news. This is the Westpac McDermott Miller survey.

(00:43):
It's up five point six points. This is the highest
level this year. Now it is still slightly below one hundred,
which means we're still a little more glass half empty
than half full. But it's going in the right direction,
as are the seek job adds, as are most of
the numbers that move furst when a recovery is underway. Now,
I say all of this completely aware that we have

(01:05):
been here before, and we have fired blanks. We've had
many a false storm or a false start, But barring
any major cockups, this recovery feels like it's real and
starting to actually happen. The missing ingredient, of course, is
house prices, which are either sideways or backwards for most regions.
That's the liquor in your Irish coffee that really gets

(01:28):
things moving on the economic front generally. But this recovery
will happen without it. It won't be sooring property prices
that give birth to this recovery. It won't start in
an auction room with a hammer going down on a
four million dollar two Betty in sandring him. What's going
to drive this recovery and make it probably more of

(01:49):
a gradual one is confidence in our agricultural exporters, lower
mortgage interest rates, and I think, more than anything, a
feeling that we are just sick of being in that position.
Aren't you tired of it? The ironic truth of it
is that in order to get us out of this malaise,
we must spend money, rather than save it, which is

(02:09):
kind of your instinct. When these things happen, We must
go out and buy stuff, so this Christmas. Take that
confidence to your nearest shopping mall, and tonight I can
report I'm doing exactly that. Westfield I've checked this morning
is open till ten pm. I've found a tent I
need to buy, I'd want to buy, I'm going to buy,
and I've been eyeing it up today. I'm ready to

(02:31):
push play. I'm ready to push play on summer, on spending,
and on an economic Christmas miracle. For more from Heather
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