Perspective with Ryan Bridge: What will the Willis-Richardson debate do for Nicola's credibility?

This Nicola Willis-Ruth Richardson showdown looks like it'll go ahead next week after the HYEFU release.

As you'll know from listening to this show on Monday night, Nicola's not happy with Ruth. And Ruth isn't too happy with Nicola.

We have a structural deficit and we're not addressing it. Surplus is probably going to be pushed out - again - to 2030. So we have a showdown.

But you might be wondering why the current Finance Minister is debating a former one (of some 30-odd years ago) at all. Well, here's the comms strategy on this:

Ruth has credibility, as least on the right. The left reckons she permanently scarred the country, but you can't deny something had to be done. And people forget the growth and jobs that followed.

Nicola's still earning her credibility, and things have not been going terribly well on that front. Spending's higher than Grant and surplus keeps getting pushed out. The growth is anaemic.

So this is a way of tackling Ruth's attacks head-on and putting them to bed.

Usually, ministers don't give oxygen to debates because it gives their opponent equal standing with them. A bit of the Treasury bench rubs off and can make your opponent seem credible.

Which is why you wouldn't see Luxon near Hipkins outside of a Bollywood dance off - except during mandatory campaign debates.

So, sorry Chlöe and sorry Barbara, this is a Ruth thing.

But there's also a smarter strategy going on here from Willis, I reckon.

By debating somebody on the right, she makes herself seem more centrist in the public's eyes. She distances herself from the Scrooge argument. She highlights how much they are still spending and haven't cut. And will argue cuts now would mean job losses and less growth.

It's basically framing the economic debate as one between the right, and even more right.

Which leaves the left out in the cold. And also looking a little trigger happy on the country credit card.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
This Nikola willis Ruth Richardson's showdown. It's not a debate anymore,
it's a showdown. It looks like it will go ahead
next week. This is after the half yearly fiscal update
that comes out. As you will know from listening to
this show on Monday night, as I know you were,
Nichola is not happy with Ruth, and Ruth ain't happy
with Nichola. We've got a structural deficit. We're not addressing it.

(00:20):
Surplus is probably going to be pushed out again to
twenty thirty. So we have a showdown. And you might
be wondering at this point, why is the current finance
minister debating a former one of some thirty odd years
ago at all. Well, here's the calm strategy for you
on this. Ruth has credibility, at least on the right.

(00:41):
The left reckons she permanently scarred the country. But you
cannot deny, and I don't think anyone does that something
had to be done. And people also forget the growth
in the jobs that followed it. Nicholas still earning her credibility,
still earning her stripes, isn't she? And things haven't really
been going terribly well on that front of late spending,
high than grant surplus keeps getting pushed out, growth anemic.

(01:04):
So this is a way of tackling Ruth's attacks head
on and trying at least to put them to bed.
And usually ministers don't do this stuff. They don't give
oxygen to debates because it gives their opponent equal standing
with them, a bit of the treasury benches, rubs off,
and can make your opponents seem well credible, which is

(01:25):
why you wouldn't see Luxen near Hipkins outside of a
Bollywood dance off, except during mandatory campaign debates. So sorry, Chloe,
sorry Barbara, this is a Ruth thing, But there's also
a smartest strategy going on here. I reckon from Willis.
By debating somebody on the right, she makes herself seem
more centrist in the public'size heading into an election year.

(01:48):
She distances herself from the scrooge argument. She highlights how
much they are still in fact spending and haven't cut,
and will argue that cuts now would bean job losses
and less growth. It's basically framing the economic debate as
one between the right and the even more right, which
leaves the left well out in the cold and also

(02:10):
looking a little trigger happy on the Old Country credit
card too. For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen
live to news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays,
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