Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Brian Bridge, Peter Lewis, Is that Asia Business correspondent Peter
Good Evening?
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Hello? Ryan?
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Now, Donald Trump did tease that Chijing Ping would be
visiting the US soon. But how soon could he visit?
Speaker 2 (00:13):
He didn't say, and indeed it was a tease. He
keeps on touting this really good relationship that he has
with Chijingping, that although they have their differences on trade
and some other issues, they're good mates. They like each other,
get on with each other. China said nothing at all
publicly about this meeting, and personally, I think it's very
(00:36):
unlikely that it will happen at the moment under the
current circumstances, because I don't think Donald Trump's relationship with
Jijing Ping is as good as he likes to make out.
But also a visit to the US right now will
be a huge risk for President Jijingping and China anyway
(00:56):
doesn't like to do these visits until all the details
sorted out in advance. You know exactly what's going to happen.
Who's going to say, what deals are going to be signed,
what agreements are going to be made. Donald Trump likes
to make it up while they're there, so nothing is
agreed in advance, and it's all done sort of on
the spot. So it's a risk for President G. I mean,
(01:18):
what happens if Donald Trump does a Zelinsky on him
and throws him out of the White House or something,
or more likely, you know, slapped tariffs on China while
he's there because they haven't got an agreement that he wants.
And you know, the local media here says that when
President g went to Washington in Trump's first term, he
(01:39):
concluded afterwards that it was a mistake and that he
shouldn't really have gone. And in particular right now, there's
a sort of similar situation because the US is doing
this China related trade study. Trump has ordered that to
be completed by April first, so there's no way that
she's going to go to China before that before they
(02:00):
see the results of what this trade study is and
what conclusions the US has come to about China trade.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Yeah, all just a bit too volatile in the Oval Office.
It sounds like good news for exporters. China's beaten expectations
on its economic expectations. I've had strong retail sales, Peter.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
Yes, it has. I mean the numbers for January and
February combined together, so we get the numbers from those
two months. That's because the Lunar New Year Festival comes
sometime in January or February each year and it distorts
the figures, so they combine the two together. But if
you look at them, retail sales are up about four
percent in that period. Consumer spending and industrial production both
(02:45):
growing more than expected, so on the basics of underlying economy,
things not looking too bad. However, the supplies in the ointment,
unemployment rose to a two year high, and youth unemployment
in particular is surging. That's about seventeen percent. And also
(03:07):
the property market is still declining. After three years of declines,
there's still no signs of stabilization in that and that's
a big problem because it by far the Chinese person's
biggest asset is property. Several families in many families in
China owned more than one property, and they're seeing the
(03:27):
values of them decline, particularly in the secondary markets where
you don't have the price controls that China puts on
properties in the way that it does in new build homes,
and that's affecting their confidence and their willingness to go
and spend, so it leaves China very reliant on exports
in an environment where trade is very much under threat.
(03:50):
So there are vulnerabilities in the Chinese economy. And again
and again it comes down to the same thing. We
need consumers to start spending. Are The government's talked about
all sorts of measures to try and boost consumer spending,
but so far they haven't really worked. In my view,
the best way to get consumers to spend is to
(04:11):
give them more money. If they have more money in
their pockets, they're more likely to go and spend it.
And there's a number of ways in which you could
do that. You could raise the minimum wage, you could
cut taxes, you could hand out consumption vouchers, and those
are the ways in which you know, maybe consumers will
go out and spend. But for various reasons, the Chinese
(04:31):
government doesn't want to do any of them.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Yeah, interesting that, Kiddibas. Obviously, the Pacific nation got a
lot of minerals and metals underneath the ocean floor around it,
and part of it's easy, and they're eyeing a deal
with China about potentially mining some of it.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Yes, that's right. I mean, this is a sort of
you know, a very potentially a very lucrative business for Quivarti.
So you know, there's a whole series of nations there,
as you know, who are all on the forefront of
this push to try and mine the depths of the
ocean to get rare earth minerals from there, which are
(05:13):
believed to be at the ocean bed. They were doing
a deal with a company called the Metals Company, which
specializes in trying to get these rare minerals of the
off the ocean bed, but that fell through, and there's
a whole range of countries there, Cook Islands, all looking
at similar things, and they're now talking about doing a
(05:36):
deal with China, doing a partnership with China to try
and mine these minerals. Apparently discussions have been opened with
the Chinese ambassador after that deal with the Metals Company
fell through. I think the concern for many nations like
yourselves in New Zealand in Australia is what happens next,
because these things start in fairly innoculous ways, and then
(06:00):
before you know it, you've got Chinese vessels, you know,
docking in ports and China sort of building ports for
these countries, and it sort of grows and grows, and
that's what concerns people, I think around the Pacific nations.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
Peter, thank you very much for that update. As always,
Peter lewis Out Asia Business Correspondent. For more from Hither
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