Rodger Shanahan: former army officer and Middle East analyst on whether peace will persist in Gaza

There's signs peace could persist in Gaza, as US President Donald Trump declares the war over.

Hamas has released the 20 living Israeli hostages - and almost 2000 Palestinians have been returned by Israel.

Leaders including Donald Trump have signed the US-brokered peace deal, at a summit in Egypt.

Middle East analyst Rodger Shanahan says after two years, there's a sense of exhaustion from Israel and Hamas.

"Both sides really want to go back to their corners and take stock about the next steps."

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Afternoon.

Speaker 2 (00:00):
Donald Trump has promised a new age of peace in
the Middle East. After the successful return of the twenty
remaining living hostages, he and some other world leaders have
signed a document ending the war in Gaza. The agreement
requires HUMAS members in Gaza to disarm and make way
for a temporary Palestinian governing committee.

Speaker 1 (00:16):
Now.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Roger Shanahan is a former Army officer and a Middle
East analyst and with us Hi Roger Hi, how and well,
thank you? Do you think that there will be lasting
piece as a result of this?

Speaker 1 (00:27):
I think we probably have to temper our expectations. Certainly
there's a good chance of peace in Gaza, but broader
Middle East still a foundational elements that make it politically
unstable are still there. This peace agreement doesn't really do
much about that.

Speaker 2 (00:48):
How can you be confident there will be peace in Gaza?

Speaker 1 (00:51):
Well? More confident. I think there's a sense of exhaustion
after two years. Both sides really want to go back
to their corners and take stock about the next steps.
HAMAS has been severely degraded, but not defeated, and Israel
will be looking to relieve itself with the burden of

(01:13):
having to continually mobilize its reserve population for military operations
and also try and repair its international reputation.

Speaker 2 (01:23):
What do you make of Hamas firing in Gaza City?
Is this them trying to assert their dominance again?

Speaker 1 (01:29):
Yeah, listen, I think so there's a inevitable vacuum after
Israeli troops withdrew to their first Phase one lines within Gaza.
There's no international stabilization force yet in place, and so
order is being restored, if you want, by the strongest

(01:54):
party at the moment, and that remains Hummas.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Yeah, and how will it always remain Hummus or is
there a answer somebody else comes up here and challenges them.

Speaker 1 (02:03):
Yeah, well that's a good question. And I think what
we're seeing at the moment is Hummus ensuring that in
the short term, at least, nobody else is going to
come and try and cert their authority. It's going to
be much more complex when this new stabilization force and
the governing authority whatever that looks like, comes into power.
And what role if any Hummas or a Hummas two

(02:26):
point zero are going to play.

Speaker 2 (02:28):
Yeah. Now, as you've indicated, we can't be sure at
all that this piece is necessarily going to last, but
to the point at which it's got to right with
the release of the living hostages and peace at the
moment and AID going in, is that enough to qualify
Donald Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize?

Speaker 1 (02:46):
Listen, I think he'd probably be one of the people considered.
But you have to look at persons overall makeup and
contribution to peace. Certainly there are other players involved in
this process. Certainly it wouldn't have got over the line
unless President Trump was there. But we also have to
understand that the US was heavily backing Israel in the

(03:09):
conflict as well. US also bombed Iranian territory, and so
does that negate from the positives from the signing of
this peace agreement? I think that'll be up to the
Nobel Prize committee in twelve months time and.

Speaker 2 (03:28):
Possibly whether they likab or not. Roger, Thanks very much.
Roger Shanahan, former Army officer in Afghanistan and Middle East analist.
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