Ryan Bridge: Prepare for a defence-focused budget

Get ready New Zealand, a massive defence budget is going to drop in three months.

Judith Collins told the show on Friday the Government wants to get to two percent of GDP. We're currently at 1.1 percent with our spending.

We spend almost $5 billion a year on defence. So we're talking about double that - almost $10 billion.

Now, Nicola Willis set her spending allowance for new money at $2.4 billion for the next three budgets, excluding savings. 

So at that rate, it'd take more than nine years and ALL the extra money available to get to 2 percent. 

That would also mean nothing extra for health and education or anything else. So that is quite unlikely.

Here's what they should do - come out and say we're getting to two percent within 15 years. They're announcing a 15-year defence plan, so it'd signal plenty of time to scale up.

Then there's the why - and on what?

The why is easy. America is in retreat mode. China is waiting in the wings. We're in the middle, though down the bottom of this battle.

China now has the world’s largest navy - 234 warships. The US has 219.

Donald Trump, and more importantly the American people who voted for him, don't want to play global cop anymore. Trump will only help Ukraine if he gets 50 percent of their mineral wealth in return. He's doing economic deals.

So we're quite vulnerable. The US spends between 3 and 4 percent of GDP on defence. Australia spends 2 percent already.

There'll be plenty of people - the Greens, the academics, and the experts - who'll say we shouldn't spend $10 billion on defence. They want more school lunches and more pay for teachers. 

But what's good's a school lunch if you've got no country? Security is more important.

But the challenge for the Government will be making sure they spend any extra cash on the right stuff. Not just spend the money for sake of hitting an arbitrary target.

We should spend wisely, so we're useful enough to a more powerful player.

If the Government is serious about this, which they certainly sound to be, then perhaps its time they also let nuclear-powered warships into our waters.

If we're worried enough to drop $10 billion on defence, then surely letting an ally dock here wouldn't be such a bad idea?

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Get ready. In New Zealand, a massive defense budget is
going to drop in about three months time. Judith Collins
told me on this program on Friday. The government wants
to get to two percent of GDP. We're currently at
one point one percent of GDP with our spending. We
spend almost five billion dollars a year on defense, so

(00:20):
we're talking about doubling that almost ten billion dollars now.
Nikola Willis has set her spending allowance for new money
at two point four billion dollars for the next three
budgets excluding savings. So at that rate, it would take
you more than nine years and all the extra money

(00:41):
available to all of government to get to two percent.
That would also mean nothing extra for health, nothing extra
for education, so that is quite unlikely. Here's what they
could do, come out and say we're going to get
to two percent of GDP within fifteen years. They're announcing
a fifteen year defense plans, so it had signal plenty

(01:02):
of time to scale things up. Then there's the why
and on what the y is easy. America is in
retreat mode. China is waiting in the wings. We are
in the middle, though, down the bottom of this battle
China now has the world's largest navy two hundred and

(01:23):
thirty four warships. The US has two hundred and nineteen.
Trump More importantly, the American people who voted for him
don't want to play globocop anymore. Trump will only help
Ukraine if he gets a mineral deal out of it.
He's doing economic deals for security, so we are quite vulnerable.
As they say, the US spends three to four percent

(01:45):
of GDP on defense. Australia spends two percent already. Remember
we're at one point one, and there'll be plenty of people,
the Greens, the academics, the experts, who'll say that we
should spend ten billion on defense. If we spend ten
billion on defense, we should spend far more on school
lunches and pay the teachers more, etc. But what's good

(02:08):
as a school lunch if you've got no country to
go back to? Security surely is more important. However, you
then have the challenge for the government making sure they
spend that extra cash on the right stuff, not just
spending the money for the sake of heading an arbitrary target.
We should spend wisely so that we're actually useful enough

(02:29):
to a more powerful player in the region. That should
be the goal, and if the government is serious about this,
which they certainly sound to be, then perhaps it's time
they also let nuclear powered warships into our waters. For
more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news
Talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the

(02:51):
podcast on iHeartRadio.