Sam Dickie: Fisher Funds expert on Donald Trump's tariffs being blocked by US federal court

A US federal court's blocked Donald Trump's global tariffs from going into effect - ruling the President overstepped his authority.

The Court of International Trade says an emergency law invoked by the White House doesn't provide unilateral authority to impose tariffs on nearly every country.

Fisher Funds expert Sam Dickie explains what this means for the economy.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Either due to see a more uncertainty obviously around Donald
Trump's tariffs. What a repeating headline A federal trade court
in the US is today blocked his tariff's on nearly
every country in the world. Sam Dickey from Fisher Funds
has actually just come back from a few weeks in
the US and is with us.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
A Sam got any here?

Speaker 1 (00:16):
So what do you know? I mean, are the tariffs
off completely now? I will back down to zero?

Speaker 3 (00:20):
What's going on?

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Definitely a stick in the spokes of Trump's tariff plan,
and the market liked it a little bit, so stop
market was up about one percent. But remember there was
a strong and video result after market as well. So
in the US dollar raleted a little bit. I mean,
the White House appealed. If it goes all the way
to the Supreme Court, who knows there is a conservative majority.
I just think it's another headline whipsaw.

Speaker 3 (00:42):
So at the moment, do we assume do we do
we proceed as if, like from New Zealand's perspective, do
you think we proceed as if we're still got the
ten percent on us?

Speaker 2 (00:51):
I think so. I think that's what I mean, that's
the feedback from that, A lot of companies we got
over there is they're proceeding as though there's going to
be this uncertainty will last for months and there will
be tariffs at least at the headline rate.

Speaker 3 (01:05):
Okay, what are the people on the ground thinking about this?

Speaker 2 (01:10):
There was a huge narrative shift while I was there.
So if you remember when I first went over there,
it was back in April, and you know, it was
as simple as these policies are unhinged. It's doing irreparable
damage to USA INC. It's going to permanently impact our
ability to be a trusted partner of Asia in Europe,
and it's the end of US been an exceptional place

(01:32):
to invest. Now by the end of the trip, similar people,
So it's companies, industry experts, politicians were saying, he's a
pretty smart negotiator, strong opening gambit, and he can expertly
walk back from the brink. So it's another reminder the
market is irrational from time to time, and sentiment swings
with a breeze.

Speaker 1 (01:50):
So are you telling me that people have started to
come around to the idea that maybe he's actually not
doing something stupid.

Speaker 2 (01:57):
Yeah, Well, I think most people agree that Most of
the things he's trying to do make sense. So it
makes sense to cut the fat out of the federal
government healthcare spinning, for example, twenty percent of GDP OECD
average nine percent is a horrific amount of waste in there,
you know. Stopping people pouring across the border unchecked, that

(02:20):
probably makes sense. Trying to slow down the deficits and
get the out of controlled debt under control. All these
things make sense, but most people think his methods are
a non politician like and a bit of ratic.

Speaker 1 (02:37):
Yeah, well, that's the thing that's definitely freaking people out,
isn't it. Now Do we have any handle just yet
on what the actual impact is going to be on
global growth, on what the actual impact is going to
be on inflation? Are we seeing this happen yet?

Speaker 2 (02:50):
So just rewinding to mid April, so economists thought the
US economy would flirt with recession the second half, so
growth would fall to around zero point five percent. Is
consumers like you and I owned businesses set on their
hands amidst the sort of extraordinary uncertainty. But being in
the US, the best real time indicators of growth are
credit card companies and rail companies so we met MasterCard,

(03:12):
for example, and they've got a brilliant bird's eye view
of the US consumer, and they were telling us that
the consumer was still solid as at early May. And
then Warren Buffett said if he disappeared to a desert
island for five years, the key indicator he'd take to
tell him the health of the US economy would be
weekly rail data. And the rail companies we were meeting
were saying that things were still strong as at early May.

(03:37):
And on the inflation side, none of the companies are
seen inflation show up yet. So we don't know why
that is. Is it just because it's early days. Is
it because importers have power over Asian suppliers and they're
forcing suppliers to eat some of the tariffs by lowering
their prices. We don't know. It could be the calm
before the storm. But so far, so good.

Speaker 3 (03:56):
Okay, So what does this mean for investors?

Speaker 2 (04:00):
The water's definitely slotted from the bearish end of the
bathtub at the bullish end. So remember April eighth, the
fear gauge as we track whereas bears as they've been
in sort of quarter of a century, and there was
just that indiscriminate selling. We talked about a great buy
an opportunity for long term patient investors now the US market,
and this is where the narrative shift came. It was
up twenty five percent in six weeks, so the risks

(04:22):
are more balanced. And I do think regardless of this
court ruling, there's still a lot of water to go
unto the bridge. So I think while companies are not
feeling the pinch yet, we should keep watching the space closely.

Speaker 3 (04:32):
Good stuff, Sam, It's always good to talk to you.
Talk to you again soon. Look after yourself, Sam Dicky
Fisher Funds for more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive.

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